arXiv subjects

Ziping Xu

Publications and source records attributed to Ziping Xu.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

A Diffusion-Model Subpopulation Digital Twin for Mobile Health Deployment: A Case Study on the HeartSteps Intervention

Mobile-health interventions increasingly use online learning and decision making algorithms to personalize when to nudge users toward healthier behavior, but a poorly designed algorithm can burden and disengage participants. New algorithm design decisions should therefore be vetted against realistic simulated users before each real-life deployment. We propose a method to develop ``JITAI-Twins'': digital twins of a target subpopulation for comparing candidate online algorithms before a just-in-time adaptive intervention (JITAI) deployment. The method builds on a conditional time-series diffusion model that is temporally consistent (future actions do not affect the generated past), and it supports repeated updating from three sources of information, in three steps: pre-training on a large observational dataset, fine-tuning on small prior intervention deployments in related populations, and inference-time calibration to the next target population from domain-scientist expertise. We validate the twin at each pre-deployment stage of the long-running HeartSteps series (v2 through v4) of physical-activity suggestion intervention deployments, treating each successive deployment as an upcoming study. The proposed method reproduces the target subpopulation's temporal and between-participant structure better than simpler simulators. These results suggest that our twin can be used to simulate a target deployment before it runs, the prerequisite for testing and informing online algorithm design decisions.

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arXiv2026

Statistical Inference for Misspecified Contextual Bandits

Contextual bandit algorithms have transformed modern experimentation by enabling real-time adaptation for personalized treatment. Yet these advantages create challenges for statistical inference due to adaptivity. We study inference with contextual-bandit data without assuming a well-specified outcome model. In this setting, we show a previously overlooked issue: standard algorithms such as LinUCB may fail to stabilize under misspecified working models, leading to non-Gaussian estimator behavior and invalid inference. This issue is practically important, as misspecified working models -- such as approximations of complex dynamical systems -- are often employed by online agents in real-world adaptive experiments to balance reward, computational tractability, and robustness. We develop an inverse-probability-weighted Z-estimation framework for a broad class of marginal moment targets, including projection parameters, structural parameters with noisy contexts, and off-policy values. We identify a stability condition tailored to this framework, scaled inverse-propensity convergence, under which the IPW-Z estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal with a consistent sandwich variance estimator. We further establish sufficient conditions for scaled inverse-propensity convergence for several policy classes, including multi-armed bandit algorithms and smooth contextual allocation policies. Simulations and a HeartSteps V1 real-data-calibrated application show reliable coverage and competitive performance across multiple targets. Overall, our results highlight the importance of stability-aware adaptive design for valid post-experiment inference.

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arXiv2026

Reinforcement Learning in the Real World: A Survey of Statistical Challenges and Future Directions

Reinforcement learning (RL) has achieved remarkable success in real-world decision-making across diverse domains, including gaming, robotics, online advertising, public health, and natural language processing. Despite these advances, a substantial gap remains between RL research and its deployment in many practical settings. Two recurring challenges often underlie this gap. First, many settings offer limited opportunity for the agent to interact extensively with the target environment due to practical constraints. Second, many target environments often undergo substantial changes, requiring redesign and redeployment of RL systems (e.g., advancements in science and technology that change the landscape of healthcare delivery). Addressing these challenges and bridging the gap between basic research and application requires theory and methodology that directly inform the design, implementation, and continual improvement of RL systems in real-world settings. In this paper, we frame the application of RL in practice as a three-component process: (i) online learning and optimization during deployment, (ii) post- or between-deployment offline analyses, and (iii) repeated cycles of deployment and redeployment to continually improve the RL system. We provide a narrative review of recent advances that address the statistical challenges arising across these three components, including methods for enhancing sample efficiency during online deployment, maximizing data utility for post- or between-deployment inference, and designing sequences of deployments for continual improvement. We also outline future research directions in RL that are use-inspired -- aiming for impactful application of RL in practice.

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arXiv2025

Active Measuring in Reinforcement Learning With Delayed Negative Effects

Measuring states in reinforcement learning (RL) can be costly in real-world settings and may negatively influence future outcomes. We introduce the Actively Observable Markov Decision Process (AOMDP), where an agent not only selects control actions but also decides whether to measure the latent state. The measurement action reveals the true latent state but may have a negative delayed effect on the environment. We show that this reduced uncertainty may provably improve sample efficiency and increase the value of the optimal policy despite these costs. We formulate an AOMDP as a periodic partially observable MDP and propose an online RL algorithm based on belief states. To approximate the belief states, we further propose a sequential Monte Carlo method to jointly approximate the posterior of unknown static environment parameters and unobserved latent states. We evaluate the proposed algorithm in a digital health application, where the agent decides when to deliver digital interventions and when to assess users' health status through surveys.

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arXiv2025

Reproducible workflow for online AI in digital health

Online artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms are an important component of digital health interventions. These online algorithms are designed to continually learn and improve their performance as streaming data is collected on individuals. Deploying online AI presents a key challenge: balancing adaptability of online AI with reproducibility. Online AI in digital interventions is a rapidly evolving area, driven by advances in algorithms, sensors, software, and devices. Digital health intervention development and deployment is a continuous process, where implementation - including the AI decision-making algorithm - is interspersed with cycles of re-development and optimization. Each deployment informs the next, making iterative deployment a defining characteristic of this field. This iterative nature underscores the importance of reproducibility: data collected across deployments must be accurately stored to have scientific utility, algorithm behavior must be auditable, and results must be comparable over time to facilitate scientific discovery and trustworthy refinement. This paper proposes a reproducible scientific workflow for developing, deploying, and analyzing online AI decision-making algorithms in digital health interventions. Grounded in practical experience from multiple real-world deployments, this workflow addresses key challenges to reproducibility across all phases of the online AI algorithm development life-cycle.

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arXiv2025

Statistical Inference for Misspecified Contextual Bandits

Contextual bandit algorithms have transformed modern experimentation by enabling real-time adaptation for personalized treatment and efficient use of data. Yet these advantages create challenges for statistical inference due to adaptivity. A fundamental property that supports valid inference is policy convergence, meaning that action-selection probabilities converge in probability given the context. Convergence ensures replicability of adaptive experiments and stability of online algorithms. In this paper, we highlight a previously overlooked issue: widely used algorithms such as LinUCB may fail to converge when the reward model is misspecified, and such non-convergence creates fundamental obstacles for statistical inference. This issue is practically important, as misspecified models -- such as linear approximations of complex dynamic system -- are often employed in real-world adaptive experiments to balance bias and variance. Motivated by this insight, we propose and analyze a broad class of algorithms that are guaranteed to converge even under model misspecification. Building on this guarantee, we develop a general inference framework based on an inverse-probability-weighted Z-estimator (IPW-Z) and establish its asymptotic normality with a consistent variance estimator. Simulation studies confirm that the proposed method provides robust and data-efficient confidence intervals, and can outperform existing approaches that exist only in the special case of offline policy evaluation. Taken together, our results underscore the importance of designing adaptive algorithms with built-in convergence guarantees to enable stable experimentation and valid statistical inference in practice.

math.ST↗

arXiv2025

Generalized Linear Markov Decision Process

Offline reinforcement learning for longitudinal studies often faces two linked challenges: rewards may be binary or bounded, and reward observations may be available only for a subset of trajectories or time points even when the corresponding state-action-next-state histories are available. Linear Markov decision process methods are tractable because Bellman backups remain linear, but they require linear rewards and do not indicate how transition-only observations should be used. We introduce GRASP-MDP, Generalized Reward And Semi-supervised Pessimism for Markov Decision Processes, a reward-transition separated framework addressing both issues through one Bellman decomposition. It preserves linear transition dynamics while modeling reward means through generalized linear models. Although this breaks the usual linear Bellman form, the backup remains explicit as a nonlinear reward component plus a linear continuation component, yielding a nonlinear-plus-linear Bellman-complete class. In the resulting recursion, observed rewards estimate the generalized reward component, while all available transitions estimate the continuation component. The resulting pessimistic value iteration controls the two estimation errors separately without reward imputation. Finite-sample guarantees show that transition-only observations reduce transition-estimation error while reward uncertainty remains governed by observed rewards. Simulations and a multiple sclerosis electronic health record application illustrate the empirical benefit of retaining transition-only observations.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Reinforcement Learning on Dyads to Enhance Medication Adherence

Medication adherence is critical for the recovery of adolescents and young adults (AYAs) who have undergone hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT). However, maintaining adherence is challenging for AYAs after hospital discharge, who experience both individual (e.g. physical and emotional symptoms) and interpersonal barriers (e.g., relational difficulties with their care partner, who is often involved in medication management). To optimize the effectiveness of a three-component digital intervention targeting both members of the dyad as well as their relationship, we propose a novel Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) approach to personalize the delivery of interventions. By incorporating the domain knowledge, the MARL framework, where each agent is responsible for the delivery of one intervention component, allows for faster learning compared with a flattened agent. Evaluation using a dyadic simulator environment, based on real clinical data, shows a significant improvement in medication adherence (approximately 3%) compared to purely random intervention delivery. The effectiveness of this approach will be further evaluated in an upcoming trial.

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arXiv2024

Online learning in bandits with predicted context

We consider the contextual bandit problem where at each time, the agent only has access to a noisy version of the context and the error variance (or an estimator of this variance). This setting is motivated by a wide range of applications where the true context for decision-making is unobserved, and only a prediction of the context by a potentially complex machine learning algorithm is available. When the context error is non-vanishing, classical bandit algorithms fail to achieve sublinear regret. We propose the first online algorithm in this setting with sublinear regret guarantees under mild conditions. The key idea is to extend the measurement error model in classical statistics to the online decision-making setting, which is nontrivial due to the policy being dependent on the noisy context observations. We further demonstrate the benefits of the proposed approach in simulation environments based on synthetic and real digital intervention datasets.

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arXiv2024

A Natural Extension To Online Algorithms For Hybrid RL With Limited Coverage

Hybrid Reinforcement Learning (RL), leveraging both online and offline data, has garnered recent interest, yet research on its provable benefits remains sparse. Additionally, many existing hybrid RL algorithms (Song et al., 2023; Nakamoto et al., 2023; Amortila et al., 2024) impose coverage assumptions on the offline dataset, but we show that this is unnecessary. A well-designed online algorithm should "fill in the gaps" in the offline dataset, exploring states and actions that the behavior policy did not explore. Unlike previous approaches that focus on estimating the offline data distribution to guide online exploration (Li et al., 2023b), we show that a natural extension to standard optimistic online algorithms -- warm-starting them by including the offline dataset in the experience replay buffer -- achieves similar provable gains from hybrid data even when the offline dataset does not have single-policy concentrability. We accomplish this by partitioning the state-action space into two, bounding the regret on each partition through an offline and an online complexity measure, and showing that the regret of this hybrid RL algorithm can be characterized by the best partition -- despite the algorithm not knowing the partition itself. As an example, we propose DISC-GOLF, a modification of an existing optimistic online algorithm with general function approximation called GOLF used in Jin et al. (2021); Xie et al. (2022a), and show that it demonstrates provable gains over both online-only and offline-only reinforcement learning, with competitive bounds when specialized to the tabular, linear and block MDP cases. Numerical simulations further validate our theory that hybrid data facilitates more efficient exploration, supporting the potential of hybrid RL in various scenarios.

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arXiv2024

The Fallacy of Minimizing Cumulative Regret in the Sequential Task Setting

Online Reinforcement Learning (RL) is typically framed as the process of minimizing cumulative regret (CR) through interactions with an unknown environment. However, real-world RL applications usually involve a sequence of tasks, and the data collected in the first task is used to warm-start the second task. The performance of the warm-start policy is measured by simple regret (SR). While minimizing both CR and SR is generally a conflicting objective, previous research has shown that in stationary environments, both can be optimized in terms of the duration of the task, $T$. In practice, however, in real-world applications, human-in-the-loop decisions between tasks often results in non-stationarity. For instance, in clinical trials, scientists may adjust target health outcomes between implementations. Our results show that task non-stationarity leads to a more restrictive trade-off between CR and SR. To balance these competing goals, the algorithm must explore excessively, leading to a CR bound worse than the typical optimal rate of $T^{1/2}$. These findings are practically significant, indicating that increased exploration is necessary in non-stationary environments to accommodate task changes, impacting the design of RL algorithms in fields such as healthcare and beyond.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Sample Efficient Myopic Exploration Through Multitask Reinforcement Learning with Diverse Tasks

Multitask Reinforcement Learning (MTRL) approaches have gained increasing attention for its wide applications in many important Reinforcement Learning (RL) tasks. However, while recent advancements in MTRL theory have focused on the improved statistical efficiency by assuming a shared structure across tasks, exploration--a crucial aspect of RL--has been largely overlooked. This paper addresses this gap by showing that when an agent is trained on a sufficiently diverse set of tasks, a generic policy-sharing algorithm with myopic exploration design like $ε$-greedy that are inefficient in general can be sample-efficient for MTRL. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first theoretical demonstration of the "exploration benefits" of MTRL. It may also shed light on the enigmatic success of the wide applications of myopic exploration in practice. To validate the role of diversity, we conduct experiments on synthetic robotic control environments, where the diverse task set aligns with the task selection by automatic curriculum learning, which is empirically shown to improve sample-efficiency.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Non-Stationary Latent Auto-Regressive Bandits

For the non-stationary multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem, many existing methods allow a general mechanism for the non-stationarity, but rely on a budget for the non-stationarity that is sub-linear to the total number of time steps $T$. In many real-world settings, however, the mechanism for the non-stationarity can be modeled, but there is no budget for the non-stationarity. We instead consider the non-stationary bandit problem where the reward means change due to a latent, auto-regressive (AR) state. We develop Latent AR LinUCB (LARL), an online linear contextual bandit algorithm that does not rely on the non-stationary budget, but instead forms good predictions of reward means by implicitly predicting the latent state. The key idea is to reduce the problem to a linear dynamical system which can be solved as a linear contextual bandit. In fact, LARL approximates a steady-state Kalman filter and efficiently learns system parameters online. We provide an interpretable regret bound for LARL with respect to the level of non-stationarity in the environment. LARL achieves sub-linear regret in this setting if the noise variance of the latent state process is sufficiently small with respect to $T$. Empirically, LARL outperforms various baseline methods in this non-stationary bandit problem.

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arXiv2023

Adaptive Sampling for Discovery

In this paper, we study a sequential decision-making problem, called Adaptive Sampling for Discovery (ASD). Starting with a large unlabeled dataset, algorithms for ASD adaptively label the points with the goal to maximize the sum of responses. This problem has wide applications to real-world discovery problems, for example drug discovery with the help of machine learning models. ASD algorithms face the well-known exploration-exploitation dilemma. The algorithm needs to choose points that yield information to improve model estimates but it also needs to exploit the model. We rigorously formulate the problem and propose a general information-directed sampling (IDS) algorithm. We provide theoretical guarantees for the performance of IDS in linear, graph and low-rank models. The benefits of IDS are shown in both simulation experiments and real-data experiments for discovering chemical reaction conditions.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

On the Statistical Benefits of Curriculum Learning

Curriculum learning (CL) is a commonly used machine learning training strategy. However, we still lack a clear theoretical understanding of CL's benefits. In this paper, we study the benefits of CL in the multitask linear regression problem under both structured and unstructured settings. For both settings, we derive the minimax rates for CL with the oracle that provides the optimal curriculum and without the oracle, where the agent has to adaptively learn a good curriculum. Our results reveal that adaptive learning can be fundamentally harder than the oracle learning in the unstructured setting, but it merely introduces a small extra term in the structured setting. To connect theory with practice, we provide justification for a popular empirical method that selects tasks with highest local prediction gain by comparing its guarantees with the minimax rates mentioned above.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

Bandit Algorithms for Precision Medicine

The Oxford English Dictionary defines precision medicine as "medical care designed to optimize efficiency or therapeutic benefit for particular groups of patients, especially by using genetic or molecular profiling." It is not an entirely new idea: physicians from ancient times have recognized that medical treatment needs to consider individual variations in patient characteristics. However, the modern precision medicine movement has been enabled by a confluence of events: scientific advances in fields such as genetics and pharmacology, technological advances in mobile devices and wearable sensors, and methodological advances in computing and data sciences. This chapter is about bandit algorithms: an area of data science of special relevance to precision medicine. With their roots in the seminal work of Bellman, Robbins, Lai and others, bandit algorithms have come to occupy a central place in modern data science ( Lattimore and Szepesvari, 2020). Bandit algorithms can be used in any situation where treatment decisions need to be made to optimize some health outcome. Since precision medicine focuses on the use of patient characteristics to guide treatment, contextual bandit algorithms are especially useful since they are designed to take such information into account. The role of bandit algorithms in areas of precision medicine such as mobile health and digital phenotyping has been reviewed before (Tewari and Murphy, 2017; Rabbi et al., 2019). Since these reviews were published, bandit algorithms have continued to find uses in mobile health and several new topics have emerged in the research on bandit algorithms. This chapter is written for quantitative researchers in fields such as statistics, machine learning, and operations research who might be interested in knowing more about the algorithmic and mathematical details of bandit algorithms that have been used in mobile health.

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arXiv2021

Safe Exploration by Solving Early Terminated MDP

Safe exploration is crucial for the real-world application of reinforcement learning (RL). Previous works consider the safe exploration problem as Constrained Markov Decision Process (CMDP), where the policies are being optimized under constraints. However, when encountering any potential dangers, human tends to stop immediately and rarely learns to behave safely in danger. Motivated by human learning, we introduce a new approach to address safe RL problems under the framework of Early Terminated MDP (ET-MDP). We first define the ET-MDP as an unconstrained MDP with the same optimal value function as its corresponding CMDP. An off-policy algorithm based on context models is then proposed to solve the ET-MDP, which thereby solves the corresponding CMDP with better asymptotic performance and improved learning efficiency. Experiments on various CMDP tasks show a substantial improvement over previous methods that directly solve CMDP.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Zeroth-Order Supervised Policy Improvement

Policy gradient (PG) algorithms have been widely used in reinforcement learning (RL). However, PG algorithms rely on exploiting the value function being learned with the first-order update locally, which results in limited sample efficiency. In this work, we propose an alternative method called Zeroth-Order Supervised Policy Improvement (ZOSPI). ZOSPI exploits the estimated value function $Q$ globally while preserving the local exploitation of the PG methods based on zeroth-order policy optimization. This learning paradigm follows Q-learning but overcomes the difficulty of efficiently operating argmax in continuous action space. It finds max-valued action within a small number of samples. The policy learning of ZOSPI has two steps: First, it samples actions and evaluates those actions with a learned value estimator, and then it learns to perform the action with the highest value through supervised learning. We further demonstrate such a supervised learning framework can learn multi-modal policies. Experiments show that ZOSPI achieves competitive results on the continuous control benchmarks with a remarkable sample efficiency.

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