Ziran Li | Searcharxiv

arXiv2026

Beyond Final Scores: A Systematic Evaluation of Agents for Long-Horizon AI Research and Development

Autonomous agents are increasingly capable of improving models, systems, and other technical artifacts through long-horizon experimentation. To understand the current state of this capability, however, evaluation must go beyond final scores, which neither reveal where progress is gained or lost nor indicate whether accumulated experience improves later decisions. We therefore present a systematic evaluation of seven frontier models on 36 long-horizon tasks based on a new framework that uses rule-based metrics to characterize within-run behavior through Solution Framing, Execution, and Feedback Control and controlled comparisons to assess experience reuse within and across tasks. The results show that current agents operate more like engineering optimizers than fully autonomous researchers: they can formulate and implement practical solutions, but their performance varies substantially across runs, their strongest solutions mainly adapt or combine established techniques, and genuine methodological novelty remains rare. Detailed analysis reveals that observed performance is shaped by multiple factors, including distinct process bottlenecks behind similar final outcomes, experience reuse that can help or mislead subsequent decisions, and harness designs that affect performance stability. These findings suggest concrete directions for improving model training, inference-time strategies, experience management, and harness design.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

What Transfers from Text to Vision? Capability Scaling Laws and Transfer Dynamics for VLMs

Choosing the right large language model (LLM) backbone is the most consequential decision when building a vision-language model (VLM), yet it remains fundamentally unprincipled: compute-based scaling laws fail to generalize across model families, and no framework exists for directly predicting VLM performance before training begins. We propose the Capability-Driven Multimodal Scaling Law, the first cross-family framework that predicts VLM benchmark accuracy from directly observable textual capability. Given a low-dimensional capability score $S$ extracted from LLM textual benchmarks via PCA, we model VLM performance as a function of $S$, with a per-backbone transfer rate and an absorption rate that quantifies data-scaling efficiency. To fit and validate the framework, we train over 150 VLMs on 34 LLMs spanning 7 model families under a strictly controlled recipe. Evaluations on more than 200 textual and 50 multimodal benchmarks show that the law accurately extrapolates transfer rate from models up to 8B parameters to 72B-scale backbones, predicts full VLM training trajectories with high fidelity, and generalizes to entirely held-out model families. Beyond the scaling law, our analysis surfaces actionable insights: certain textual benchmarks negatively correlate with multimodal performance, exposing latent benchmark-gaming behavior; base LLMs outperform instruction-tuned counterparts as VLM backbones due to higher absorption rates and lower data-scaling decay; and different model families occupy distinct positions in the transfer--absorption space. The framework turns backbone selection from costly empirical sweeps into a principled, quantitative decision. Code and data are available at https://github.com/wangq-dev/CDMScaling.

cs.CL↗