arXiv subjects

Zizhuo Wang

Publications and source records attributed to Zizhuo Wang.

36 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2020

Probabilistic Forecasting with Temporal Convolutional Neural Network

We present a probabilistic forecasting framework based on convolutional neural network for multiple related time series forecasting. The framework can be applied to estimate probability density under both parametric and non-parametric settings. More specifically, stacked residual blocks based on dilated causal convolutional nets are constructed to capture the temporal dependencies of the series. Combined with representation learning, our approach is able to learn complex patterns such as seasonality, holiday effects within and across series, and to leverage those patterns for more accurate forecasts, especially when historical data is sparse or unavailable. Extensive empirical studies are performed on several real-world datasets, including datasets from JD.com, China's largest online retailer. The results show that our framework outperforms other state-of-the-art methods in both accuracy and efficiency.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2019

Comparison-Based Algorithms for One-Dimensional Stochastic Convex Optimization

Stochastic optimization finds a wide range of applications in operations research and management science. However, existing stochastic optimization techniques usually require the information of random samples (e.g., demands in the newsvendor problem) or the objective values at the sampled points (e.g., the lost sales cost), which might not be available in practice. In this paper, we consider a new setup for stochastic optimization, in which the decision maker has access to only comparative information between a random sample and two chosen decision points in each iteration. We propose a comparison-based algorithm (CBA) to solve such problems in one dimension with convex objective functions. Particularly, the CBA properly chooses the two points in each iteration and constructs an unbiased gradient estimate for the original problem. We show that the CBA achieves the same convergence rate as the optimal stochastic gradient methods (with the samples observed). We also consider extensions of our approach to multi-dimensional quadratic problems as well as problems with non-convex objective functions. Numerical experiments show that the CBA performs well in test problems.

math.OC↗

arXiv2017

Strong NP-Hardness for Sparse Optimization with Concave Penalty Functions

Consider the regularized sparse minimization problem, which involves empirical sums of loss functions for $n$ data points (each of dimension $d$) and a nonconvex sparsity penalty. We prove that finding an $\mathcal{O}(n^{c_1}d^{c_2})$-optimal solution to the regularized sparse optimization problem is strongly NP-hard for any $c_1, c_2\in [0,1)$ such that $c_1+c_2<1$. The result applies to a broad class of loss functions and sparse penalty functions. It suggests that one cannot even approximately solve the sparse optimization problem in polynomial time, unless P $=$ NP.

math.OC↗

arXiv2017

Assortment Optimization under a Single Transition Model

In this paper, we consider a Markov chain choice model with single transition. In this model, customers arrive at each product with a certain probability. If the arrived product is unavailable, then the seller can recommend a subset of available products to the customer and the customer will purchase one of the recommended products or choose not to purchase with certain transition probabilities. The distinguishing features of the model are that the seller can control which products to recommend depending on the arrived product and that each customer either purchases a product or leaves the market after one transition. We study the assortment optimization problem under this model. Particularly, we show that this problem is generally NP-Hard even if each product could only transit to at most two products. Despite the complexity of the problem, we provide polynomial time algorithms for several special cases, such as when the transition probabilities are homogeneous with respect to the starting point, or when each product can only transit to one other product. We also provide a tight performance bound for revenue-ordered assortments. In addition, we propose a compact mixed integer program formulation that can solve this problem of large size. Through extensive numerical experiments, we show that the proposed algorithms can solve the problem efficiently and the obtained assortments could significantly improve the revenue of the seller than under the Markov chain choice model.

math.OC↗

arXiv2015

Scheduling under Linear Constraints

We introduce a parallel machine scheduling problem in which the processing times of jobs are not given in advance but are determined by a system of linear constraints. The objective is to minimize the makespan, i.e., the maximum job completion time among all feasible choices. This novel problem is motivated by various real-world application scenarios. We discuss the computational complexity and algorithms for various settings of this problem. In particular, we show that if there is only one machine with an arbitrary number of linear constraints, or there is an arbitrary number of machines with no more than two linear constraints, or both the number of machines and the number of linear constraints are fixed constants, then the problem is polynomial-time solvable via solving a series of linear programming problems. If both the number of machines and the number of constraints are inputs of the problem instance, then the problem is NP-Hard. We further propose several approximation algorithms for the latter case.

cs.DS↗

arXiv2015

A Near-Optimal Dynamic Learning Algorithm for Online Matching Problems with Concave Returns

We consider an online matching problem with concave returns. This problem is a significant generalization of the Adwords allocation problem and has vast applications in online advertising. In this problem, a sequence of items arrive sequentially and each has to be allocated to one of the bidders, who bid a certain value for each item. At each time, the decision maker has to allocate the current item to one of the bidders without knowing the future bids and the objective is to maximize the sum of some concave functions of each bidder's aggregate value. In this work, we propose an algorithm that achieves near-optimal performance for this problem when the bids arrive in a random order and the input data satisfies certain conditions. The key idea of our algorithm is to learn the input data pattern dynamically: we solve a sequence of carefully chosen partial allocation problems and use their optimal solutions to assist with the future decision. Our analysis belongs to the primal-dual paradigm, however, the absence of linearity of the objective function and the dynamic feature of the algorithm makes our analysis quite unique.

cs.DS↗

arXiv2015

Analysis of Discrete Choice Models: A Welfare-Based Framework

Based on the observation that many existing discrete choice models admit a welfare function of utilities whose gradient gives the choice probability vector, we propose a new representation of discrete choice model which we call the welfare-based choice model. The welfare-based choice model is meaningful on its own by providing a new way of constructing choice models. More importantly, it provides great analysis convenience for establishing connections among existing choice models. We prove by using convex analysis theory, that the welfare-based choice model is equivalent to the representative agent choice model and the semi-parametric choice model, establishing the equivalence of the latter two. We show that these three models are all strictly more general than the random utility model, while when there are only two alternatives, those four models are equivalent. In particular, we show that the distinction between the welfare-based choice model and the random utility model lies in the requirement of the higher-order derivatives of the welfare function. We then define a new concept in choice models: substitutability/complementarity between alternatives. We show that the random utility model only allows substitutability between different alternatives; while the welfare-based choice model allows flexible substitutability/complementarity patterns. We argue that such flexibility could be desirable in capturing certain practical choice patterns and expanding the scope of discrete choice models. Examples are given of new choice models proposed under our framework.

math.OC↗

arXiv2015

A Composite Risk Measure Framework for Decision Making under Uncertainty

In this paper, we present a unified framework for decision making under uncertainty. Our framework is based on the composite of two risk measures, where the inner risk measure accounts for the risk of decision given the exact distribution of uncertain model parameters, and the outer risk measure quantifies the risk that occurs when estimating the parameters of distribution. We show that the model is tractable under mild conditions. The framework is a generalization of several existing models, including stochastic programming, robust optimization, distributionally robust optimization, etc. Using this framework, we study a few new models which imply probabilistic guarantees for solutions and yield less conservative results comparing to traditional models. Numerical experiments are performed on portfolio selection problems to demonstrate the strength of our models.

math.OC↗

arXiv2014

Likelihood Robust Optimization for Data-driven Problems

We consider optimal decision-making problems in an uncertain environment. In particular, we consider the case in which the distribution of the input is unknown, yet there is abundant historical data drawn from the distribution. In this paper, we propose a new type of distributionally robust optimization model called the likelihood robust optimization (LRO) model for this class of problems. In contrast to previous work on distributionally robust optimization that focuses on certain parameters (e.g., mean, variance, etc.) of the input distribution, we exploit the historical data and define the accessible distribution set to contain only those distributions that make the observed data achieve a certain level of likelihood. Then we formulate the targeting problem as one of optimizing the expected value of the objective function under the worst-case distribution in that set. Our model avoids the over-conservativeness of some prior robust approaches by ruling out unrealistic distributions while maintaining robustness of the solution for any statistically likely outcomes. We present statistical analyses of our model using Bayesian statistics and empirical likelihood theory. Specifically, we prove the asymptotic behavior of our distribution set and establish the relationship between our model and other distributionally robust models. To test the performance of our model, we apply it to the newsvendor problem and the portfolio selection problem. The test results show that the solutions of our model indeed have desirable performance.

math.OC↗

arXiv2014

On Solving Convex Optimization Problems with Linear Ascending Constraints

In this paper, we propose two algorithms for solving convex optimization problems with linear ascending constraints. When the objective function is separable, we propose a dual method which terminates in a finite number of iterations. In particular, the worst case complexity of our dual method improves over the best-known result for this problem in Padakandla and Sundaresan [SIAM J. Optimization, 20 (2009), pp. 1185-1204]. We then propose a gradient projection method to solve a more general class of problems in which the objective function is not necessarily separable. Numerical experiments show that both our algorithms work well in test problems.

math.OC↗

arXiv2014

A Dynamic Near-Optimal Algorithm for Online Linear Programming

A natural optimization model that formulates many online resource allocation and revenue management problems is the online linear program (LP) in which the constraint matrix is revealed column by column along with the corresponding objective coefficient. In such a model, a decision variable has to be set each time a column is revealed without observing the future inputs and the goal is to maximize the overall objective function. In this paper, we provide a near-optimal algorithm for this general class of online problems under the assumption of random order of arrival and some mild conditions on the size of the LP right-hand-side input. Specifically, our learning-based algorithm works by dynamically updating a threshold price vector at geometric time intervals, where the dual prices learned from the revealed columns in the previous period are used to determine the sequential decisions in the current period. Due to the feature of dynamic learning, the competitiveness of our algorithm improves over the past study of the same problem. We also present a worst-case example showing that the performance of our algorithm is near-optimal.

cs.DS↗

arXiv2014

An Improved Algorithm for Fixed-Hub Single Allocation Problem

This paper discusses the fixed-hub single allocation problem (FHSAP). In this problem, a network consists of hub nodes and terminal nodes. Hubs are fixed and fully connected; each terminal node is connected to a single hub which routes all its traffic. The goal is to minimize the cost of routing the traffic in the network. In this paper, we propose a linear programming (LP)-based rounding algorithm. The algorithm is based on two ideas. First, we modify the LP relaxation formulation introduced in Ernst and Krishnamoorthy (1996, 1999) by incorporating a set of validity constraints. Then, after obtaining a fractional solution to the LP relaxation, we make use of a geometric rounding algorithm to obtain an integral solution. We show that by incorporating the validity constraints, the strengthened LP often provides much tighter upper bounds than the previous methods with a little more computational effort, and the solution obtained often has a much smaller gap with the optimal solution. We also formulate a robust version of the FHSAP and show that it can guard against data uncertainty with little cost.

cs.DS↗

arXiv2013

A Simple Policy for Multiple Queues with Size-Independent Service Times

We consider a service system with two Poisson arrival queues. A server chooses which queue to serve at each moment. Once a queue is served, all the customers will be served within a fixed amount of time. This model is useful in studying airport shuttling or certain online computing systems. We propose a simple yet optimal state-independent policy for this problem which is not only easy to implement, but also performs very well.

math.OC↗

arXiv2013

Close the Gaps: A Learning-while-Doing Algorithm for a Class of Single-Product Revenue Management Problems

We consider a retailer selling a single product with limited on-hand inventory over a finite selling season. Customer demand arrives according to a Poisson process, the rate of which is influenced by a single action taken by the retailer (such as price adjustment, sales commission, advertisement intensity, etc.). The relationship between the action and the demand rate is not known in advance. However, the retailer is able to learn the optimal action "on the fly" as she maximizes her total expected revenue based on the observed demand reactions. Using the pricing problem as an example, we propose a dynamic "learning-while-doing" algorithm that only involves function value estimation to achieve a near-optimal performance. Our algorithm employs a series of shrinking price intervals and iteratively tests prices within that interval using a set of carefully chosen parameters. We prove that the convergence rate of our algorithm is among the fastest of all possible algorithms in terms of asymptotic "regret" (the relative loss comparing to the full information optimal solution). Our result closes the performance gaps between parametric and non-parametric learning and between a post-price mechanism and a customer-bidding mechanism. Important managerial insight from this research is that the values of information on both the parametric form of the demand function as well as each customer's exact reservation price are less important than prior literature suggests. Our results also suggest that firms would be better off to perform dynamic learning and action concurrently rather than sequentially.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2011

Complexity of Unconstrained L_2-L_p Minimization

We consider the unconstrained $L_2$-$L_p$ minimization: find a minimizer of $\|Ax-b\|^2_2+λ\|x\|^p_p$ for given $A \in R^{m\times n}$, $b\in R^m$ and parameters $λ>0$, $p\in [0,1)$. This problem has been studied extensively in variable selection and sparse least squares fitting for high dimensional data. Theoretical results show that the minimizers of the $L_2$-$L_p$ problem have various attractive features due to the concavity and non-Lipschitzian property of the regularization function $\|\cdot\|^p_p$. In this paper, we show that the $L_q$-$L_p$ minimization problem is strongly NP-hard for any $p\in [0,1)$ and $q\ge 1$, including its smoothed version. On the other hand, we show that, by choosing parameters $(p,λ)$ carefully, a minimizer, global or local, will have certain desired sparsity. We believe that these results provide new theoretical insights to the studies and applications of the concave regularized optimization problems.

cs.CC↗

arXiv2009

Non-line-of-sight Node Localization based on Semi-Definite Programming in Wireless Sensor Networks

An unknown-position sensor can be localized if there are three or more anchors making time-of-arrival (TOA) measurements of a signal from it. However, the location errors can be very large due to the fact that some of the measurements are from non-line-of-sight (NLOS) paths. In this paper, we propose a semi-definite programming (SDP) based node localization algorithm in NLOS environment for ultra-wideband (UWB) wireless sensor networks. The positions of sensors can be estimated using the distance estimates from location-aware anchors as well as other sensors. However, in the absence of LOS paths, e.g., in indoor networks, the NLOS range estimates can be significantly biased. As a result, the NLOS error can remarkably decrease the location accuracy. And it is not easy to efficiently distinguish LOS from NLOS measurements. In this paper, an algorithm is proposed that achieves high location accuracy without the need of identifying NLOS and LOS measurement.

cs.IT↗

arXiv2009

A Unified Framework for Dynamic Pari-Mutuel Information Market Design

Recently, several new pari-mutuel mechanisms have been introduced to organize markets for contingent claims. Hanson introduced a market maker derived from the logarithmic scoring rule, and later Chen and Pennock developed a cost function formulation for the market maker. On the other hand, the SCPM model of Peters et al. is based on ideas from a call auction setting using a convex optimization model. In this work, we develop a unified framework that bridges these seemingly unrelated models for centrally organizing contingent claim markets. The framework, developed as a generalization of the SCPM, will support many desirable properties such as proper scoring, truthful bidding (in a myopic sense), efficient computation, and guarantees on worst case loss. In fact, our unified framework will allow us to express various proper scoring rules, existing or new, from classical utility functions in a convex optimization problem representing the market organizer. Additionally, we utilize concepts from duality to show that the market model is equivalent to a risk minimization problem where a convex risk measure is employed. This will allow us to more clearly understand the differences in the risk attitudes adopted by various mechanisms, and particularly deepen our intuition about popular mechanisms like Hanson's market-maker. In aggregate, we believe this work advances our understanding of the objectives that the market organizer is optimizing in popular pari-mutuel mechanisms by recasting them into one unified framework.

q-fin.TR↗

arXiv2008

Parimutuel Betting on Permutations

We focus on a permutation betting market under parimutuel call auction model where traders bet on the final ranking of n candidates. We present a Proportional Betting mechanism for this market. Our mechanism allows the traders to bet on any subset of the n x n 'candidate-rank' pairs, and rewards them proportionally to the number of pairs that appear in the final outcome. We show that market organizer's decision problem for this mechanism can be formulated as a convex program of polynomial size. More importantly, the formulation yields a set of n x n unique marginal prices that are sufficient to price the bets in this mechanism, and are computable in polynomial-time. The marginal prices reflect the traders' beliefs about the marginal distributions over outcomes. We also propose techniques to compute the joint distribution over n! permutations from these marginal distributions. We show that using a maximum entropy criterion, we can obtain a concise parametric form (with only n x n parameters) for the joint distribution which is defined over an exponentially large state space. We then present an approximation algorithm for computing the parameters of this distribution. In fact, the algorithm addresses the generic problem of finding the maximum entropy distribution over permutations that has a given mean, and may be of independent interest.

cs.GT↗