arXiv subjects

Zofia Kaczmarek

Publications and source records attributed to Zofia Kaczmarek.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Predictions for astrometric microlensing in Gaia

ESA's astrometric space mission Gaia is uniquely positioned for microlensing studies thanks to its all-sky coverage and simultaneous astrometric and photometric observations. In Gaia Data Release 4 (DR4), astrometric time series will be published for the first time, providing a rich dataset for isolated stellar remnant searches. In anticipation of DR4, we prepared tools for fitting photometric and 1D astrometric measurements. We tested the recovery of true event parameters and population distributions with Gaia-like observations. We created a mock survey of microlensing events mirroring Gaia DR4's design. The events were generated using dedicated Galactic simulations to provide realistic expectations on stellar and dark lens yields. For selected events, we simulated observations following Gaia's scanning law and precision, using the astromet package. Such simulations are needed to interpret forthcoming data; they also enable testing inference tools with known ground truth. We used nested sampling to infer full posterior distributions and compare them with the true lens parameters. Our simulation predicts $322 \pm 70$ microlensing events with astrometric signals above Gaia precision thresholds; $209 \pm 57$ of them have detectable photometric signals. Among those, $82 \pm 9$ and $49 \pm 7$, respectively, have remnant lenses. To assess Gaia's capabilities in constraining remnant mass distributions, we modelled $49$ events from this sample. We recovered the true Einstein times and radii for most events. Microlensing parallax measurements are consistent with true values but uncertain, limiting mass determination. We recommend focusing on events with bright sources or anomalous fits to optimize dark lens searches. We make available the mock Gaia time-series dataset, as well as a toolkit repository for working with the data format, fitting models, and visualizing results.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2026

Astrometric microlensing probes of the isolated neutron star population with Roman

Notoriously hard to detect and study, isolated neutron stars (NS) could provide valuable answers to fundamental questions about stellar evolution and explosion physics. With the upcoming Roman Space Telescope, scheduled for launch in 2026, a new and powerful channel for their detection - astrometric microlensing - will become available. We set out to create a realistic sample of simulated gravitational microlensing events as observed by Roman with the Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey. We focus in particular on the population of NS lenses, which has until now been largely understudied. We use state-of-the-art Galactic models tailored for application to microlensing by compact objects. We simulate four different NS populations with Maxwellian natal kick distributions: $\bar{v} = (150, \ 250, \ 350, \ 450)$ km/s. We apply projected Roman precision, cadence, and detectability criteria. We find the parameter space $\log_{10} t_{\rm E}$ - $\log_{10} θ_{\rm E}$, which will be accessible to Roman observations, to be maximally efficient for classification of stellar remnants. We find a feature in this space that is characteristic to NS; using this feature, optimal samples of NS candidates can be constructed from Roman-like datasets. We describe the dependence of observable parameter distributions on the assumed mean kick velocities. As the effects of natal kicks are very complex and mutually counteracting, we suggest more detailed studies focused on the dynamics of NS are needed in anticipation of Roman and future surveys. We estimate Roman will observe approximately $11\,000$ microlensing events - including $\sim100$ with NS lenses - whose both photometric and astrometric signal are detectable; the event yield decreases by $38\%$ if gap-filling low-cadence observations are not included. We make all simulated microlensing event datasets publicly available in preparation for Roman data.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

A value-added catalogue of neural network-based europium abundances for GALAH DR4

The rapid neutron-capture ($r$-process) element europium (Eu) is a valuable tracer of neutron star mergers and other rare nucleosynthetic events. The stellar spectroscopic survey GALAH's unique wavelength range and setup include the Eu absorption feature at $\sim6645$ Å for almost a million stars in the most recent Data Release 4 (DR4). However, DR4 also saw a decreased precision in reported Eu measurements compared to previous data releases. In this work, we use a convolutional neural network (CNN) to perform label transfer, wherein we use the GALAH DR4 spectra and stellar parameters to infer DR3 [Eu/H] abundances. This CNN is then applied to DR4 spectra without corresponding DR3 Eu abundances to develop a new, publicly available catalogue of [Eu/H] values for high signal-to-noise targets. We include [Eu/H] predictions for $118\,946$ stars, out of which $54\,068$ giants constitute our "golden sample" of high-confidence predictions, which pass stricter quality cuts and have a reported precision $\lesssim0.1$. To overcome the scarcity of training data in the low metallicity regime, we provide an additional catalogue of [Eu/H] abundances for metal poor ($\mathrm{[Fe/H]}<-1$) stars derived from synthesis of the Eu feature. Our "golden sample" can be combined with [Eu/H] values from GALAH DR3 to create a catalogue of over $100\,000$ vetted, high-quality abundances on a homogeneous scale. Moreover, we are able to reproduce known science results, including the elevated Eu abundances of accreted stars and previously observed Galactic chemical evolution trends. This catalogue represents one of the largest available samples of [Eu/H] abundances for high signal-to-noise targets.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2024

On Finding Black Holes in Photometric Microlensing Surveys

There are expected to be millions of isolated black holes in the Galaxy resulting from the death of massive stars. Measuring the abundance and properties of this remnant population would shed light on the end stages of stellar evolution and the evolution paths of black hole systems. Detecting isolated black holes is currently only possible via gravitational microlensing which has so far yielded one definitive detection. The difficulty in finding microlensing black holes lies in having to choose a small subset of events based on characteristics of their lightcurves to allocate expensive and scarce follow-up resources to confirm the identity of the lens. Current methods either rely on simple cuts in parameter space without using the full distribution information or are only effective on a small subsets of events. In this paper we present a new lens classification method. The classifier takes in posterior constraints on lightcurve parameters and combines them with a Galactic simulation to estimate the lens class probability. This method is flexible and can be used with any set of microlensing lightcurve parameters making it applicable to large samples of events. We make this classification framework available via the popclass python package. We apply the classifier to $\sim10,000$ microlensing events from the OGLE survey and find $23$ high-probability black hole candidates. Our classifier also suggests that the only known isolated black hole is an observational outlier according to current Galactic models and allocation of astrometric follow-up on this event was a high-risk strategy.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

popclass: a python package for classifying microlensing events

popclass is a python package that provides a flexible, probabilistic framework for classifying the lens of a gravitational microlensing event. popclass allows a user to match characteristics of a microlensing signal to a simulation of the Galaxy to calculate lens type probabilities for an event. Constraints on any microlensing signal characteristics and any Galactic model can be used. popclass comes with an interface to common inference libraries for microlensing signal constraints, pre-loaded Galactic models, plotting functionality, and classification uncertainty quantification methods.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2024

Spatially resolved microlensing timescale distributions across the Galactic bulge with the VVV survey

We analyze 1602 microlensing events found in the VISTA Variables in the Via Lactea (VVV) near-infrared (NIR) survey data. We obtain spatially-resolved, efficiency-corrected timescale distributions across the Galactic bulge ($|\ell|<10^\circ,$ $|b|<5^\circ$), using a Bayesian hierarchical model. Spatially-resolved peaks and means of the timescale distributions, along with their marginal distributions in strips of longitude and latitude, are in agreement at a 1$σ$ level with predictions based on the Besançon model of the Galaxy. We find that the event timescales in the central bulge fields ($|\ell| < 5^\circ$) are on average shorter than the non-central ($|\ell| > 5^\circ$) fields, with the average peak of the lognormal timescale distribution at 23.6 $\pm$ 1.9 days for the central fields and 29.0 $\pm$ 3.0 days for the non-central fields. Our ability to probe the structure of the Bulge with this sample of NIR microlensing events is limited by the VVV survey's sparse cadence and relatively small number of detected microlensing events compared to dedicated optical surveys. Looking forward to future surveys, we investigate the capability of the Roman telescope to detect spatially-resolved asymmetries in the timescale distributions. We propose two pairs of Roman fields, centred on ($\ell = \pm 9,5^\circ$, $b=-0.125^\circ$) and ($\ell = -5^\circ$, $b=\pm 1.375^\circ$) as good targets to measure the asymmetry in longitude and latitude, respectively.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2022

Is there a nearby microlensing stellar remnant hiding in Gaia DR3 astrometry?

Massive galactic lenses with large Einstein Radii should cause a measurable astrometric microlensing effect, i.e. the light centroid shift due to the motion of the two images. Such a shift in the position of a background star due to microlensing was not included in the $Gaia$ astrometric model, therefore significant deviation should cause $Gaia$'s astrometric parameters to be determined incorrectly. Here we studied one of the photometric microlensing events reported in the $Gaia$ DR3, GaiaDR3-ULENS-001, for which poor goodness of $Gaia$ fit and erroneous parallax could indicate the presence of the astrometric microlensing signal. Based on the photometric microlensing model, we simulated $Gaia$ astrometric time-series with the astrometric microlensing effect added. We found that including microlensing with the angular Einstein Radius of $θ_{\rm E}$ = $2.60^{+0.21}_{-0.24}$ mas ($2.47^{+0.28}_{-0.24}$ mas) assuming positive (negative) impact parameter $u_0$ reproduces well the astrometric quantitie reported by $Gaia$. We estimate the mass of the lens to $1.00^{+0.23}_{-0.18}$ $M_\odot$ ($0.70^{+0.17}_{-0.13}$ $M_\odot$) and its distance to $0.90^{+0.14}_{-0.11}$ kpc ($0.69^{+0.13}_{-0.09}$ kpc), proposing the lens could be a nearby isolated white dwarf.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2022

Dark lenses through the dust: parallax microlensing events in the VVV

We use near-infrared photometry and astrometry from the VISTA Variables in the Via Lactea (VVV) survey to analyse microlensing events containing annual microlensing parallax information. These events are located in highly extincted and low-latitude regions of the Galactic bulge typically off-limits to optical microlensing surveys. We fit a catalog of $1959$ events previously found in the VVV and extract $21$ microlensing parallax candidates. The fitting is done using nested sampling to automatically characterise the multi-modal and degenerate posterior distributions of the annual microlensing parallax signal. We compute the probability density in lens mass-distance using the source proper motion and a Galactic model of disc and bulge deflectors. By comparing the expected flux from a main sequence lens to the baseline magnitude and blending parameter, we identify 4 candidates which have probability $> 50$% that the lens is dark. The strongest candidate corresponds to a nearby ($\approx0.78$ kpc), medium-mass ($1.46^{+1.13}_{-0.71} \ M_{\odot}$) dark remnant as lens. In the next strongest, the lens is located at heliocentric distance $\approx5.3$ kpc. It is a dark remnant with a mass of $1.63^{+1.15}_{-0.70} \ M_{\odot}$. Both of those candidates are most likely neutron stars, though possibly high-mass white dwarfs. The last two events may also be caused by dark remnants, though we are unable to rule out other possibilities because of limitations in the data.

astro-ph.GA↗