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Zoltán Haiman

Publications and source records attributed to Zoltán Haiman.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

Periodicity significance testing with null-signal templates: reassessment of PTF's SMBH binary candidates

Periodograms are widely employed for identifying periodicity in time series data, yet they often struggle to accurately quantify the statistical significance of detected periodic signals when the data complexity precludes reliable simulations. We develop a data-driven approach to address this challenge by introducing a null-signal template (NST). The NST is created by carefully randomizing the period of each cycle in the periodogram template, rendering it non-periodic. It has the same frequentist properties as a periodic signal template regardless of the noise probability distribution, and we show with simulations that the distribution of false positives is the same as with the original periodic template, regardless of the underlying data. Thus, performing a periodicity search with the NST acts as an effective simulation of the null (no-signal) hypothesis, without having to simulate the noise properties of the data. We apply the NST method to the supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHB) search in the Palomar Transient Factory (PTF), where Charisi et al. had previously proposed 33 high signal to (white) noise candidates utilizing simulations to quantify their significance. Our approach reveals that these simulations do not capture the complexity of the real data. There are no statistically significant periodic signal detections above the non-periodic background. To improve the search sensitivity we introduce a Gaussian quadrature based algorithm for the Bayes Factor with correlated noise as a test statistic, in contrast to the standard signal to white noise. We show with simulations that this improves sensitivity to true signals by more than an order of magnitude. However, using the Bayes Factor approach also results in no statistically significant detections in the PTF data.

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Diagnosing the massive-seed pathway to high-redshift black holes: statistics of the evolving black hole to host galaxy mass ratio

Supermassive black holes (SMBHs) with masses of $\sim 10^9 {\rm M_\odot}$ within the first billion year of the universe challenge our conventional understanding of black hole formation and growth. One pathway to these SMBHs proposes that supermassive stars (SMSs) born in pristine atomic cooling haloes (ACHs) yield massive seed BHs evolving to these early SMBHs. This scenario leads to an overly massive BH galaxy (OMBG), in which the BH to stellar mass ratio is initially $M_{\rm bh}/M_* \geq 1$, well in excess of the typical values of $\sim 10^{-3}$ at low redshifts. Previously, we have investigated two massive seed BH candidates from the \texttt{Renaissance} simulation and found that they remain outliers on the $M_{\rm bh}-M_{*}$ relation until the OMBG merges with a much more massive halo at $z{=}8$. In this work, we use Monte-Carlo merger trees to investigate the evolution of the $M_{\rm bh}-M_{*}$ relation for $50,000$ protogalaxies hosting massive BH seeds, across $10,000$ trees that merge into a $10^{12} {\rm M_\odot}$ halo at $z{=}6$. We find that up to $60\%$ (depending on growth parameters) of these OMBGs remain strong outliers for several 100 Myr, down to redshifts detectable with {\it JWST} and with sensitive X-ray telescopes. This represents a way to diagnose the massive-seed formation pathway for early SMBHs. We expect to find ${\sim} 0.1{-}1$ of these objects per {\it JWST} NIRCam field per unit redshift at $z\gtrsim 6$. Recently detected SMBHs with masses of $\sim 10^7~{\rm M_\odot}$ and low inferred stellar-mass hosts may be examples of this population.

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Eccentric Minidisks in Accreting Binaries

We show that gas disks around the components of an orbiting binary system (so-called minidisks) may be susceptible to a resonant instability which causes the minidisks to become significantly eccentric. Eccentricity is injected by, and also induces, regular impacts between the minidisks at roughly the orbital period of the binary. Such eccentric minidisks are seen in vertically integrated, two-dimensional simulations of a circular, equal-mass binary accreting from a circumbinary gas disk with a $Γ$-law equation of state. Minidisk eccentricity is suppressed by the use of an isothermal equation of state. However, the instability still operates, and can be revealed in a minimal disk-binary simulation by removing the circumbinary disk, and feeding the minidisks from the component positions. Minidisk eccentricity is also suppressed when the gravitational softening length is large ($\gtrsim 4\%$ of the binary semi-major axis), suggesting that its absence could be an artifact of widely adopted numerical approximations; a follow-up study in three dimensions with well-resolved, geometrically thin minidisks (aspect ratios $\lesssim 0.02$) may be needed to assess whether eccentric minidisks can occur in real astrophysical environments. If they can, the electromagnetic signature may be important for discriminating between binary and single black hole scenarios for quasi-periodic oscillations in active galactic nuclei; in turn, this might aid in targeted searches with pulsar timing arrays for individual supermassive black hole binary sources of low-frequency gravitational waves.

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Self-lensing flares from black hole binaries III: general-relativistic ray tracing of circumbinary accretion simulations

Self-lensing flares (SLFs) are expected to be produced once or twice per orbit by an accreting massive black hole binary (MBHB), if the eclipsing MBHBs are observed close to edge-on. SLFs can provide valuable electromagnetic (EM) signatures to accompany the gravitational waves (GWs) detectable by the upcoming Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). EM follow-ups are crucial for, e.g., sky-localization, and constraining the Hubble constant and the graviton mass. We use high-resolution two-dimensional viscous hydrodynamical simulations of a circumbinary disk (CBD) embedding a MBHB. We then use very high-cadence output of these hydrodynamical simulation inputs for a general-relativistic ray-tracing code to produce synthetic spectra and phase-folded light curves. Our main results show a significant periodic amplification of the flux with the characteristic shape of a sharp flare with a central dip, as the foreground black hole (BH) transits across the minidisk and shadow of the background BH, respectively. These corroborate previous conclusions based on the microlensing approximation and analytical toy models of the emission geometry. We also find that at lower inclinations, without some occlusion of the minidisk emission by the CBD, shocks from quasi-periodic mass-trading between the minidisks can produce bright flares which can mimic SLFs and could hinder their identification.

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Shock cooling and breakout emission for optical flares associated with gravitational wave events

The astrophysical origin of stellar-mass black hole (BH) mergers discovered through gravitational waves (GWs) is widely debated. Mergers in the disks of active galactic nuclei (AGN) represent promising environments for at least a fraction of these events, with possible observational clues in the GW data. An additional clue to unveil AGN merger environments is provided by possible electromagnetic emission from post-merger accreting BHs. Associated with BH mergers in AGN disks, emission from shocks emerging around jets launched by accreting merger remnants is expected. In this paper we compute the properties of the emission produced during breakout and the subsequent adiabatic expansion phase of the shocks, and we then apply this model to optical flares suggested to be possibly associated with GW events. We find that the majority of the reported flares can be explained by the breakout and the shock cooling emission. If these events are real, then the merging locations of binaries are constrained depending on the emission processes. If the optical flares are produced by shock cooling emission, they would display moderate color evolution, possibly color variations among different events, a positive correlation between the delay time and the duration of flares, and accompanying breakout emission in X-ray bands before the optical flares. If the breakout emission dominates the observed lightcurve, it is expected that the color is distributed in a narrow range in the optical band, and the delay time from GW to electromagnetic emission is longer than $\sim 2$ days. Hence, further explorations of the distributions of delay times, color evolution of the flares, and associated X-ray emission will be useful to test the proposed emission model for the observed flares.

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Disappearing thermal X-ray emission as a tell-tale signature of merging massive black hole binaries

The upcoming Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) is expected to detect gravitational waves (GWs) from massive black hole binaries (MBHB). Finding the electromagnetic (EM) counterparts for these GW events will be crucial for understanding how and where MBHBs merge, measuring their redshifts, constraining the Hubble constant and the graviton mass, and for other novel science applications. However, due to poor GW sky localisation, multi-wavelength, time-dependent electromagnetic (EM) models are needed to identify the right host galaxy among many candidates. We studied merging MBHBs embedded in a circumbinary disc using high-resolution two-dimensional simulations, with a $Γ$-law equation of state, incorporating viscous heating, shock heating, and radiative cooling. We simulate the binary from large separation until after merger, allowing us to model the decoupling of the binary from the circumbinary disc (CBD). We compute the EM signatures and identify distinct features before, during, and after the merger. Our main result is a multi-band EM signature: we find that the MBHB produces strong thermal X-ray emission until 1-2 days prior to the merger. However, as the binary decouples from the CBD, the X-ray-bright minidiscs rapidly shrink in size, become disrupted, and the accretion rate drops precipitously. As a result, the thermal X-ray luminosity drops by orders of magnitude, and the source remains X-ray dark for several days after the merger, regardless of any post-merger effects such as GW recoil or mass loss. Looking for the abrupt spectral change where the thermal X-ray disappears is a tell-tale EM signature of LISA mergers that does not require extensive pre-merger monitoring.

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Black Hole Binaries in AGN Accretion Discs II: Gas Effects on Black Hole Satellite Scatterings

The black hole (BH) binaries in active galactic nuclei (AGN) are expected to form mainly through scattering encounters in the ambient gaseous medium. Recent simulations, including our own, have confirmed this formation pathway is highly efficient. We perform 3D smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) simulations of BH scattering encounters in AGN disks. Using a range of impact parameters, we probe the necessary conditions for binary capture and how different orbital trajectories affect the dissipative effects from the gas. We identify a single range of impact parameters, typically of width $\sim0.86-1.59$ binary Hill radii depending on AGN disk density, that reliably leads to binary formation. The periapsis of the first encounter is the primary variable that determines the outcome of the initial scattering. We find an associated power-law between the energy dissipated and the periapsis depth to be $ΔE\propto r^{-b}$ with $b=0.42\pm0.16$, where deeper encounters dissipate more energy. Excluding accretion physics does not significantly alter these results. We identify the region of parameter space in initial energy vs impact parameter where a scattering leads to binary formation. Based on our findings, we provide a ready-to-use analytic criterion that utilises these two pre-encounter parameters to determine the outcome of an encounter, with a reliability rate of >90\%. As the criterion is based directly on our simulations, it provides a reliable and highly physically motivated criterion for predicting binary scattering outcomes which can be used in population studies of BH binaries and mergers around AGN.

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Flares from stars crossing active galactic nuclei disks on low-inclination orbits

The origin of the recently discovered new class of transients, X-ray quasi-periodic eruptions (QPEs), remains a puzzle. Due to their periodicity and association with active galactic nuclei (AGN), it is natural to relate these eruptions to stars or compact objects in tight orbits around supermassive black holes (SMBHs). In this paper, we predict the properties of emission from bow shocks produced by stars crossing AGN disks, and compare them to the observed properties of QPEs. We find that when a star's orbit is retrograde and has a low inclination ($\lesssim 40^\circ$) with respect to the AGN disk and the star is massive ($\gtrsim 10$ $M_{\odot}$), the breakout emission from the bow shock can explain the observed duration ($\sim$ hours) and X-ray luminosity ($\sim$few$\times10^{42}~{\rm erg~s^{-1}}$) of QPEs. This model can further explain various observed features of QPEs, such as their complex luminosity evolution, the gradual decline of luminosity of the flares over several years, the evolution of the hardness ratio, the modulation of the luminosity during quiescent phases, and the preference of the central SMBHs to have low masses.

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High-energy electromagnetic, neutrino, and cosmic-ray emission by stellar-mass black holes in disks of active galactic nuclei

Some Seyfert galaxies are detected in high-energy gamma rays, but the mechanism and site of gamma-ray emission are unknown. Also, the origins of the cosmic high-energy neutrino and MeV gamma-ray backgrounds have been veiled in mystery since their discoveries. We propose emission from stellar-mass BHs (sBHs) embedded in disks of active galactic nuclei (AGN) as their possible sources. These sBHs are predicted to launch jets due to the Blandford-Znajek mechanism, which can produce intense electromagnetic, neutrino, and cosmic-ray emissions. We investigate whether these emissions can be the sources of cosmic high-energy particles. We find that emission from internal shocks in the jets can explain gamma rays from nearby radio-quiet Seyfert galaxies including NGC1068, if the Lorentz factor of the jets ($Γ_{\rm j}$) is high. On the other hand, for moderate $Γ_{\rm j}$, the emission can significantly contribute to the background gamma-ray and neutrino intensities in the $\sim {\rm MeV}$ and $\lesssim {\rm PeV}$ bands, respectively. Furthermore, for moderate $Γ_{\rm j}$ with efficient amplification of the magnetic field and cosmic-ray acceleration, the neutrino emission from NGC1068 and the ultrahigh-energy cosmic rays can be explained. These results suggest that the neutrino flux from NGC1068 as well as the background intensities of ${\rm MeV}$ gamma rays, neutrinos, and the ultrahigh-energy cosmic rays can be explained by a unified model. Future MeV gamma-ray satellites will test our scenario for neutrino emission.

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Massive Black Hole Binaries as LISA Precursors in the Roman High Latitude Time Domain Survey

With its capacity to observe $\sim 10^{5-6}$ faint active galactic nuclei (AGN) out to redshift $z\approx 6$, Roman is poised to reveal a population of $10^{4-6}\, {\rm M_\odot}$ black holes during an epoch of vigorous galaxy assembly. By measuring the light curves of a subset of these AGN and looking for periodicity, Roman can identify several hundred massive black hole binaries (MBHBs) with 5-12 day orbital periods, which emit copious gravitational radiation and will inevitably merge on timescales of $10^{3-5}$ years. During the last few months of their merger, such binaries are observable with the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA), a joint ESA/NASA gravitational wave mission set to launch in the mid-2030s. Roman can thus find LISA precursors, provide uniquely robust constraints on the LISA source population, help identify the host galaxies of LISA mergers, and unlock the potential of multi-messenger astrophysics with massive black hole binaries.

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Black Hole Binary Formation in AGN Discs: From Isolation to Merger

Motivated by the increasing number of detections of merging black holes by LIGO-VIRGO-KAGRA, black hole (BH) binary mergers in the discs of active galactic nuclei (AGN) is investigated as a possible merger channel. In this pathway, BH encounters in the gas disc form mutually bound black hole binary systems through interaction with the gas in the disc and subsequently inspiral through gravitational torques induced by the local gas. To determine the feasibility of this merger pathway, we present the first 3D global hydrodynamic simulations of the formation and evolution of a stellar-mass BH binaries AGN discs with three different AGN disc masses and five different initial radial separations. These 15 simulations show binary capture of prograde and retrograde binaries can be successful in a range of disc densities including cases well below that of a standard radiatively efficient alpha disc, identifying that the majority of these captured binaries are then subsequently hardened by the surrounding gas. The eccentricity evolution depends strongly on the orbital rotation where prograde binaries are governed by gravitational torques form their circumbinary mini-disc, with eccentricities being damped, while for retrograde binaries the eccentricities are excited to > 0.9 by accretion torques. In two cases, retrograde binaries ultimately undergo a close periapsis passage which results in a merger via gravitational waves after only a few thousand binary orbits. Thus, the merger timescale can be far shorter than the AGN disc lifetime. These simulations support an efficient AGN disc merger pathway for BHs.

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Observable signature of merging stellar-mass black holes in active galactic nuclei

The origin of stellar-mass black hole mergers discovered through gravitational waves is being widely debated. Mergers in the disks of active galactic nuclei (AGN) represent a promising source of origin, with possible observational clues in the gravitational wave data. Beyond gravitational waves, a unique signature of AGN-assisted mergers is electromagnetic emission from the accreting black holes. Here we show that jets launched by accreting black holes merging in an AGN disk can be detected as peculiar transients by infrared, optical, and X-ray observatories We further show that this emission mechanism can explain the possible associations between gravitational wave events and the optical transient ZTF19abanrhr and the proposed gamma-ray counterparts GW150914-GBM and LVT151012-GBM. We demonstrate how these associations, if genuine, can be used to reconstruct the properties of these events' environments. Searching for infrared and X-ray counterparts to similar electromagnetic transients in the future, once host galaxies are localized by optical observations, could provide a smoking gun signature of the mergers' AGN origin.

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Observable signatures of stellar-mass black holes in active galactic nuclei

Stellar-mass black holes (BHs) are predicted to be embedded in the disks of active galactic nuclei (AGN) due to gravitational drag and in-situ star formation. However, clear evidence for AGN disk-embedded BHs is currently lacking. Here, as possible electromagnetic signatures of these BHs, we investigate breakout emission from shocks emerging around Blandford-Znajek jets launched from accreting BHs in AGN disks. We assume that the majority of the highly super-Eddington flow reaches the BH, produces a strong jet, and the jet produces feedback that shuts off accretion and thus leads to episodic flaring. While these assumptions are highly uncertain at present, they predict a breakout emission characterized by luminous thermal emission in the X-ray bands, and bright, broadband non-thermal emission from the infrared to the gamma-ray bands. The flare duration depends on the BH's distance $r$ from the central supermassive BH, varying between $10^3-10^6$ s for $r \sim 0.01-1$ pc. This emission can be discovered by current and future infrared, optical, and X-ray wide-field surveys and monitoring campaigns of nearby AGNs.

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Cosmological constraints from HSC survey first-year data using deep learning

We present cosmological constraints from the Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) first-year weak lensing shear catalogue using convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and conventional summary statistics. We crop 19 $3\times3\,\mathrm{{deg}^2}$ sub-fields from the first-year area, divide the galaxies with redshift $0.3\le z\le1.5$ into four equally-spaced redshift bins, and perform tomographic analyses. We develop a pipeline to generate simulated convergence maps from cosmological $N$-body simulations, where we account for effects such as intrinsic alignments (IAs), baryons, photometric redshift errors, and point spread function errors, to match characteristics of the real catalogue. We train CNNs that can predict the underlying parameters from the simulated maps, and we use them to construct likelihood functions for Bayesian analyses. In the $Λ$ cold dark matter model with two free cosmological parameters $Ω_\mathrm{m}$ and $σ_8$, we find $Ω_\mathrm{m}=0.278_{-0.035}^{+0.037}$, $S_8\equiv(Ω_\mathrm{m}/0.3)^{0.5}σ_8=0.793_{-0.018}^{+0.017}$, and the IA amplitude $A_\mathrm{IA}=0.20_{-0.58}^{+0.55}$. In a model with four additional free baryonic parameters, we find $Ω_\mathrm{m}=0.268_{-0.036}^{+0.040}$, $S_8=0.819_{-0.024}^{+0.034}$, and $A_\mathrm{IA}=-0.16_{-0.58}^{+0.59}$, with the baryonic parameters not being well-constrained. We also find that statistical uncertainties of the parameters by the CNNs are smaller than those from the power spectrum (5--24 percent smaller for $S_8$ and a factor of 2.5--3.0 smaller for $Ω_\mathrm{m}$), showing the effectiveness of CNNs for uncovering additional cosmological information from the HSC data. With baryons, the $S_8$ discrepancy between HSC first-year data and Planck 2018 is reduced from $\sim2.2\,σ$ to $0.3\text{--}0.5\,σ$.

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How long do high-redshift massive black hole seeds remain outliers in black hole vs. host galaxy relations?

The existence of $10^9\ {\rm M_\odot}$ supermassive black holes (SMBHs) within the first billion years of the universe remains a puzzle in our conventional understanding of black hole formation and growth. Several suggested formation pathways for these SMBHs lead to a heavy seed, with an initial black hole mass of $10^4-10^6~{\rm M_\odot}$. This can lead to an overly massive BH galaxy (OMBG), whose nuclear black hole's mass is comparable to or even greater than the surrounding stellar mass: the black hole to stellar mass ratio is $M_{\rm bh}/M_* \gg 10^{-3}$, well in excess of the typical values at lower redshift. We investigate how long these newborn BHs remain outliers in the $M_{\rm bh}-M_{*}$ relation, by exploring the subsequent evolution of two OMBGs previously identified in the \texttt{Renaissance} simulations. We find that both OMBGs have $M_{\rm bh}/M_* > 1$ during their entire life, from their birth at $z\approx 15$ until they merge with much more massive haloes at $z\approx 8$. We find that the OMBGs are spatially resolvable from their more massive, $10^{11}~{\rm M_\odot}$, neighboring haloes until their mergers are complete at $z\approx 8$. This affords a window for future observations with {\it JWST} and sensitive X-ray telescopes to diagnose the heavy-seed scenario, by detecting similar OMBGs and establishing their uniquely high black hole-to-stellar mass ratio.

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Multi-band light curves from eccentric accreting supermassive black hole binaries

We use long-run, high-resolution hydrodynamics simulations to compute the multi-wavelength light curves (LCs) from thermal disk emission around accreting equal-mass supermassive black hole (BH) binaries, with a focus on revealing binary eccentricity. LCs are obtained by modeling the disk thermodynamics with an adiabatic equation of state, a local blackbody cooling prescription, and corrections to approximate the effects of radiation pressure. We find that modulation of multi-band LCs on the orbital time scale are generally in-phase (to within $\sim\,$2% of a binary orbital period), but they contain pulse substructure in the time domain that is not necessarily reflected in BH accretion rates $\dot M$. We thus predict that binary-hosting AGN will exhibit highly correlated, in-phase, periodic brightness modulations in their low-energy disk emission. However, detectability of these modulations in multi-wavelength observing campaigns could be seriously compromised because observed stochastic variability in AGNs typically has a higher amplitude than our proposed signal. It is possible that observations over temporal baselines of many binary periods may make the signal more prominent, but this would need to be analyzed carefully. If jet emission is predicted by $\dot{M}$, then we predict a weaker correlation with low-energy disk emission due to the differing sub-peak structure. For the binary parameters we explore, we show that LC variability due to hydrodynamics likely dominates Doppler brightening for all equal-mass binaries with disk Mach numbers $\lesssim 20$. A promising signature of eccentricity is weak or absent "lump" periodicity. We find hints that a significant lag exists between $\dot{M}$ and low-energy disk emission for circular binaries, but they are in-phase for eccentric binaries, which might explain some "orphan" blazar flares with no $γ$-ray counterpart.

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Self-regulation of black hole accretion via jets in early protogalaxies

The early growth of black holes (BHs) in high-redshift galaxies is likely regulated by their feedback on the surrounding gas. While radiative feedback has been extensively studied, the role of mechanical feedback has received comparatively less scrutiny to date. Here we use high-resolution parsec-scale hydrodynamical simulations to study jet propagation and its effect on BH accretion onto 100 ${\rm M_\odot}$ BHs in the dense, low-metallicity gas expected in early protogalaxies. As the jet propagates, it shocks the surrounding gas and forms a jet cocoon. The cocoon consists of a rapidly-cooling cold phase at the interface with the background gas and an over-pressured subsonic phase of reverse shock-heated gas filling the cocoon interior. We systematically vary the background gas density and temperature, BH feedback efficiency, and the jet model. We found that the jet cocoon width roughly follows a scaling derived by assuming momentum conservation in the jet propagation direction, and energy conservation in the lateral directions. Depending on the assumed gas and jet properties, the cocoon either stays elongated out to a large radius or isotropizes before reaching the Bondi radius, forming a nearly spherical bubble. Lower jet velocities and higher background gas densities result in self-regulation to higher momentum fluxes and elongated cocoons. In all cases, the outward momentum flux of the cocoon balances the inward momentum flux of the inflowing gas near the Bondi radius, which ultimately regulates BH accretion. The larger the distance the jet cocoon reaches, the longer the variability timescale of the BH accretion rate. Overall, the average accretion rate always remains below the Bondi rate, and exceeds the Eddington rate only if the ambient medium is dense and cold, and/or the jet is weak. We derive the combination of jet and ambient gas parameters yielding super-Eddington growth.

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Supercritical growth pathway to overmassive black holes at cosmic dawn: coevolution with massive quasar hosts

Observations of the most luminous quasars at high redshifts ($z > 6$) have revealed that the largest supermassive black holes (SMBHs) at those epochs tend to be substantially overmassive relative to their host galaxies compared to the local relations, suggesting they experienced rapid early growth phases. We propose an assembly model for the SMBHs that end up in rare massive $\sim10^{12}~M_{\odot}$ host halos at $z \sim 6-7$, applying a kinetic feedback prescription for BHs accreting above the Eddington rate, provided by radiation hydrodynamic simulations for the long-term evolution of the accretion-flow structure. The large inflow rates into these halos during their assembly enable the formation of $>10^9~M_{\odot}$ SMBHs by $z \sim 6$, even starting from stellar-mass seeds at $z \sim 30$, and even in the presence of outflows that reduce the BH feeding rate, especially at early times. This mechanism also naturally yields a high BH-to-galaxy mass ratio of $> 0.01$ before the SMBH mass reaches $M_{\rm BH} > 10^9~M_{\odot}$ by $z \sim 6$. These fast-growing SMBH progenitors are bright enough to be detected by upcoming observations with the James Webb Space Telescope over a wide range of redshift ($7 < z < 15$), regardless of how they were seeded.

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