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arXiv2026

Beyond Pass/Fail: Using Process Mining to Understand How LLMs Resist (and Fail) Red Team Attacks

Standard AI red teaming evaluations reduce adversarial campaigns to a single binary outcome, attack success rate (ASR), not taking into account the sequential structure of how models resist or yield to attacks. We propose applying process mining, a discipline for discovering and analyzing process models from event logs, to red teaming traces. We conduct a controlled experiment pitting 60 HarmBench prompts against two LLMs, GPT-OSS 120B and Llama 3.3 70B, using 10 prompt mutation strategies over up to 110 attempts per prompt. From the resulting 8,575 scored events we extract Directly-Follows Graphs (DFGs) and state transition matrices that reveal structurally distinct defense profiles invisible to ASR alone: GPT-OSS exhibits a near-absorbing refusal state, while Llama presents multiple porous escape routes from refusal to getting successfully jailbroken. We further show that mutator effectiveness is asymmetric across models and that time-to-jailbreak distributions differ by an order of magnitude.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2026

Quantifying LLM Safety Degradation Under Repeated Attacks Using Survival Analysis

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in a wide range of applications, yet remain vulnerable to adversarial jailbreak attacks that circumvent their safety guardrails. Existing evaluation frameworks typically report binary success/failure metrics, failing to capture the temporal dynamics of how attacks succeed under persistent adversarial pressure. This preliminary work proposes a novel evaluation framework that applies survival analysis techniques to characterize LLM jailbreak vuln`erability. Our approach models the time-to-jailbreak as a survival outcome, enabling estimation of hazard functions, survival curves, and risk factors associated with successful attacks. We evaluate three LLMs against a subset of prompts from the HarmBench dataset spanning three attack categories. Our analysis reveals that models exhibit distinct vulnerability profiles: while one model demonstrates rapid degradation under iterative attacks, the two other models show consistent moderate vulnerability. Our framework provides actionable insights for model and LLM application developers and establishes survival analysis as a rigorous methodology for LLM safety evaluation.

cs.CR↗