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At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Diffusion Models in Simulation-Based Inference: A Tutorial Review

Diffusion models have recently emerged as powerful learners for simulation-based inference (SBI), enabling fast and accurate estimation of latent parameters from simulated and real data. Their score-based formulation offers a flexible way to learn conditional or joint distributions over parameters and observations, thereby providing a versatile solution to various modeling problems. In this tutorial review, we synthesize recent developments on diffusion models for SBI, covering design choices for training, inference, and evaluation. We highlight opportunities created by various concepts such as guidance, score composition, flow matching, consistency models, and joint modeling. Furthermore, we discuss how efficiency and statistical accuracy are affected by noise schedules, parameterizations, and samplers. Finally, we illustrate these concepts with case studies across parameter dimensionalities, simulation budgets, and model types, and outline open questions for future research.

stat.ML↗

When to Align, When to Predict: A Phase Diagram for Multimodal Learning

Cross-modal alignment (CA) and cross-modal prediction (CP) are the dominant paradigms for multimodal representation learning, yet there is no systematic understanding of when each succeeds and when each fails, a gap that leaves practitioners, especially in scientific domains with heterogeneous instruments and multiple levels of measurement, unable to diagnose why standard methods underperform the best single modality. We study both objectives under a spiked signal-plus-noise model with structured cross-modal nuisance correlation, the ingredient that breaks the classical recovery guarantees, and derive separation ratios that expose complementary failure modes: alignment whitens each modality and fails when nuisance is strongly correlated across views; prediction encodes whatever is cross-predictable through a one-sided whitening, with recovery governed by source-modality quality. The resulting phase diagram partitions multimodal problems into four regimes --- Both, CA only, CP only, and Neither --- refined by a recovery count that separates partial recovery from complete failure. We present a data-driven procedure to locate real-world datasets in this diagram using a small labeled subsample, identifying the preferred objective and prediction direction before any cross-modal training, and identifying when no objective in the CA/CP family can improve on the stronger modality alone. Experiments on synthetic data, stereo-vision benchmarks, image--caption pairs, and two real scientific domains, astronomy and single-cell multi-omics, validate the predictions in the nonlinear regime, including both faces of the Neither regime. Code to reproduce the results is available at https://github.com/IlayMalinyak/mm_align_vs_pred.

cs.LG↗

ICON decomposition: Multivariate concept auditing reveals shortcuts that neural networks rely on

Deep neural networks often exploit spurious associations, a failure known as shortcut learning. Before deployment, models should therefore be audited for reliance on concepts such as acquisition artifacts and patient demographics. Current methods, including linear probes and concept activation vectors, measure concept reliance by asking whether each concept is decodable from a layer. We show that this framing is misleading: decodability reflects not only concept reliance but also correlations among concepts and the outcome in the auditing dataset. We reframe shortcut auditing as a decomposition of the variance of intermediary representations with Independent Canonical cONcepts (ICON). ICON quantifies the share of a layer's variance explained by each concept conditional on all other concepts and the outcome, and also reports the variance left unexplained. Because ICON explanations are comparable across layers, their trajectories distinguish concepts that drive predictions from those that are merely encoded in the representations. In simulated data with ground truth, ICON recovers concept importance more accurately than seven baselines. In skin-cancer and neuroimaging applications, it separates learned shortcuts from merely correlated concepts, which we confirm with independent validation checks.

cs.LG↗

Tail-Replay: Escaping the Curse of Linear Attention in Prefix Caching for Hybrid LLMs

Hybrid large language models interleave full-attention layers with linear-attention layers to reduce the cost of long-context inference. This structure complicates prefix caching: full-attention key-value caches are token-addressable, whereas linear-attention layers maintain recurrent states that cannot be rolled back to arbitrary prefix boundaries. Existing hybrid prefix caching methods address this mismatch by storing recurrent-state checkpoints. As a result, token-level matches are directly usable only at positions aligned with stored checkpoints, constraining prefix reuse to a discrete set of boundaries. We present Tail-Replay, a prefix caching mechanism that enables unconstrained token-level prefix reuse in hybrid large language models. The key insight is that linear-attention mechanisms such as Gated DeltaNet can be viewed as a structured, lossy compression of the input prefix: gated recurrent updates progressively attenuate the contributions of earlier inputs. Consequently, the recurrent state of a matched prefix can be well approximated by replaying only a short, recent suffix of that prefix. Tail-Replay exploits this property by caching the exact full-attention key-value cache while omitting recurrent-state checkpoints. On a cache hit, it reconstructs the linear-attention states by replaying a short, recent suffix of the matched prefix. As a result, the reuse boundary is determined by the shared tokens rather than by recurrent-state checkpoints. We evaluate Tail-Replay on three Gated DeltaNet-based hybrid models using the LongBench and RULER benchmarks. With only a 5--10\% replay budget, it retains 92.8--99.9\% of full-prefill quality on LongBench and RULER. For serving efficiency, we evaluate time-to-first-token speedups across multiple matched-prefix lengths---8K, 16K, and 32K. The speedup grows with prefix length, reaching $9.1$--$14.3\times$ over full prefill at 32K.

cs.LG↗

Inherent Trade-offs when Enforcing Correct Data Symmetries in Multi-head Self-attention

We give a complete characterization of equivariant multi-head self-attention (MHSA): if an MHSA layer is equivariant to a symmetry group $G$, then $G$ can only act by permuting head-clusters, with QK and OV matrices satisfying an equivariance constraint tied to the group action. As a consequence, we prove that any fixed MHSA architecture that achieves exact equivariance by polynomially parameterizing unconstrained MHSA parameters inevitably leads to expressivity loss within the class of equivariant maps: the equivariance locus of unconstrained MHSA forms a union of extremely many Zariski-irreducible components in a reduced parameter space, and any single architecture covers at most one. For $G=D_4$ acting on $C$ copies of the regular representation as the token feature space, we show that there are $Ω(C^{64})$ components for eight attention heads. We illustrate this with experiments on artificial tasks and show that the predicted head-cluster structures can arise naturally when the attention layer is pressured to become equivariant.

cs.LG↗

The Safety Relay in Roleplay Jailbreaks: A Component-Resolved Causal Analysis of Harm Recognition and Refusal

Large language models are trained to follow instructions while refusing harmful requests. Jailbreaks exploit this balance to elicit content a model would ordinarily reject. Roleplay jailbreaks are especially concerning: ordinary instructions defining a persona, scenario, and task can induce compliance while the harmful request remains plainly visible. We investigate which components drive this reversal and how they affect the computations leading to the response. Across two benchmarks, three model families, and four authored wrappers, we compare matched harmful and benign requests under controlled combinations of these components. We trace internal harmful--benign contrasts at the request and where generation begins, then evaluate selected internal interventions on held-out requests. A focused study examines influential attention heads and feed-forward computations, testing their functions and downstream connections. Our analysis yields three findings. (1) Successful attacks retain the measured harmful--benign distinction at the request, while its refusal-associated expression weakens where the answer begins, a pattern we call safety-relay attenuation. (2) The contributions of roleplay components depend on the other components present. (3) Reversing selected roleplay-associated internal changes restores refusal, demonstrating their causal influence. Together, these findings connect ordinary roleplay instructions to internal changes in refusal and motivate safeguards that preserve the influence of harm-related information on the response.

cs.LG↗

Efficiently Estimating Optimal Hyperparameter Scaling Laws through Power-Law Entropy Search

Optimal hyperparameter scaling laws describe how the best hyperparameters for large language model (LLM) training change with model and data scale, enabling practitioners to predict optimal configurations at production scales without expensive large-scale tuning. However, estimating these scaling laws conventionally requires exhaustive grid searches over thousands of training runs, consuming enormous computational resources. We introduce Power-Law Entropy Search (PLES), a computational cost-aware acquisition function built on multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization that efficiently estimates optimal hyperparameter scaling laws through adaptive experimentation. A key innovation in PLES is that it searches for candidates that reduce the overall uncertainty of a scaling law estimate, instead of optimizing a single objective function. At each iteration, PLES selects the candidate configuration that maximally reduces the uncertainty of the scaling law estimates per unit computational cost, naturally favoring informative small-scale experiments. We evaluate PLES on synthetic benchmarks, surrogate models fitted to real LLM training data, and actual LLM pre-training runs. Across all settings, PLES converges to accurate optimal hyperparameter scaling laws using less than one-tenth of the computational budget required by conventional grid search and other baselines.

cs.LG↗

Formal Bayesian Transfer Learning via the Total Risk Prior

Existing methods for transfer learning struggle to deal with situations where the source datasets are limited and not guaranteed to be well-aligned with the target dataset. A typical strategy is to use the empirical loss minimizer on the source data as a prior mean for the target parameters. We propose using a risk minimizer conditional on source parameters instead. This allows us to construct a joint posterior for all parameters from the source and target datasets. As a consequence, we benefit from full Bayesian uncertainty quantification and can perform model averaging via Gibbs sampling over indicator variables governing the inclusion of each source dataset. We show how a particular instantiation of our prior leads to a Bayesian Lasso in a transformed coordinate system and describe connections between the Maximum a Posteriori estimate associated with our approach and the Trans-Lasso method. We find that the MAP estimator MSE-dominates the Trans-Lasso in the normal means setting when there is no regularization on the source datasets. Finally, we perform numerical experiments finding that our approach provides superior predictive performance relative to frequentist and Bayesian baselines on a genetics application, particularly when the source data are limited.

stat.ML↗

A Byzantine-Robust Federated Learning with Nesterov Momentum

We investigate robust federated learning, where a group of workers collaboratively train a shared model under the orchestration of a central server in the presence of Byzantine adversaries capable of arbitrary and potentially malicious behaviors. To improve communication efficiency while retaining resilience against such adversaries, we propose a Byzantine-resilient Nesterov-augmented federated learning (Byrd-NAFL) algorithm. Byrd-NAFL applies Nesterov's momentum at the server to the output of any soft $γ$-Byzantine resilient aggregation rule, while each worker only computes and uploads a stochastic gradient, which keeps the workers stateless, as desired for intermittently participating Internet of Things devices. For smooth non-convex losses, we establish a finite-time convergence guarantee for all momentum factors $β\in[0,1)$ without requiring the aggregated gradient to be unbiased or bounded; the bound reduces to that of Byzantine-resilient stochastic gradient descent at $β=0$ and is tighter than that of server-side heavy-ball momentum. Experiments on MNIST, CIFAR-10, and Sentiment140 show that Byrd-NAFL converges faster and attains higher accuracy than existing benchmarks in most i.i.d. and non-i.i.d. setups under diverse attacks, while its resilience is bounded by that of the underlying aggregation rule.

cs.LG↗

HiMPO: Hindsight-Informed Memory Policy Optimization for Less-Entangled Credit in Long-Horizon Agents

Long-horizon agents compress interaction histories into memory, but final outcomes entangle memory-writing credit with tool failures and reasoning errors. We propose HiMPO, a Hindsight-Informed Memory Policy Optimization framework that supplements trajectory-level reinforcement learning with memory-specific credit. For each update, HiMPO compares the target answer's log-likelihood under the previous and updated memories while holding the remaining pre-write context fixed. A soft gate based on group-relative hindsight relevance then weights the local utility advantage. Trajectory-level credit applies to all generated tokens; memory tokens additionally receive the auxiliary advantage. Across judge-based open-domain tasks and objective compressive-memory QA, HiMPO improves task performance while preserving compressed-context efficiency. On Local Wiki Search, it improves average F1 and exact match over MemPO by 2.6 and 2.2 percentage points, respectively. Controlled interventions and live memory-reversion studies provide evidence of reduced blame leakage and alignment between memory credit and behavioral effects. With the policy fixed, the credit estimator remains robust to the tested forms of target noise.

cs.CL↗

Diffusion as a Training Curriculum for Timestep-Free Iterative Reasoning

Diffusion models and recursive reasoners are both iterative, but they carry information across iterations differently. We add a persistent hidden state to a diffusion denoiser and remove its timestep conditioning, leaving a single shared update that can be run to arbitrary depth. The result is an anytime solver: accuracy keeps improving with inference depth far beyond the rollout lengths and backpropagation window used in training, reaching 99.90% exact solve on Sudoku-Extreme. We also obtain 98.93% solve rate on Maze-Unique. Surprisingly, progressive denoising is unnecessary at inference: holding corruption at its maximum by replacing every non-clue variable with fresh Gaussian noise at each step retains near-perfect solving and converges to stable solutions. This simple noise-injection mechanism enables a single trajectory to efficiently explore the solution space and settle on the correct answer without parallel rollouts, candidate selection, or external verifiers required by prior reasoning models. Nonetheless, ordered annealed corruption remains critical during training, which suggests that diffusion's primary contribution to our anytime solver is not a sampling procedure at inference, but a denoising training curriculum.

cs.LG↗

Language Models Can Control Their Own Attention

Language models spend most of their attention on a small fraction of context, yet they read the entire KV cache to find the few tokens that matter. If the user asks about a previous detail in a 1M-token conversation, global attention layers must scan the full context to generate each token of the reply. A prominent approach pre-selects relevant tokens via lightweight proxy scores, but this extrinsic scoring still incurs O(N) per step. We take an intrinsic approach motivated by the simple question: wouldn't the model already know which parts of the context are relevant? We introduce Declarative Attention (DA), a protocol that elicits the model to declare where it needs to attend within its chain-of-thought, partitioning generation into three modes: (full context), (a specific region), and (recent output only). The inference engine parses these declarations like tool calls and skips most of the KV cache read. Under zero-shot evaluation across 15 long-context tasks, DA on off-the-shelf models (Gemma-4-31B, Qwen-3.6-27B) reduces total attended tokens per response (45.8%, 19.6%), despite extra decoding steps, with modest accuracy drops (1.40pp, 2.10pp) that shrink with model scale. DA unlocks a new axis of sparse attention, with further potential under training-based methods. Code is available at https://github.com/itsnamgyu/declarative-attention.

cs.CL↗

When Genomic Masking Priors Fail to Transfer: Strong Variant Prediction, Weak Functional Generation

Bidirectional discrete diffusion model appears naturally suited to genomic modeling because it can reconstruct missing sequence from both flanks. We developed GenDA (Genomic Density-optimized Absorbing Diffusion) under the additional hypothesis that entropy-guided span placement would concentrate reconstruction pressure on compositionally complex regions, improving both downstream variant-effect prediction and functional sequence generation. Our results only partially support this premise. After supervised fine-tuning, the 202M-parameter GenDA model reaches a pooled ClinVar SNV AUROC of 0.774, exceeding a similarly scaled autoregressive model by 0.103. However, a matched random-span variant reaches 0.777, providing no evidence that entropy guidance causes the ClinVar improvement. More unexpectedly, GenDA fails a zero-shot functional inpainting stress test: across promoters, enhancers, exon boundaries, and intron boundaries, it does not consistently outperform a control that shuffles the native gap while exactly preserving 3-mer composition. Failure is already present for 50--500-bp gaps, although enhancer degradation worsens at longer gaps. Diagnostics identify several boundary conditions: entropy measures local sequence complexity rather than functional importance; 1-mer tokenization limits physical context; training spans are capped at 300 bp; and high absolute AlphaGenome fidelity can coexist with negative control-normalized restoration. These results show that strong fine-tuned variant prediction, a plausible corruption prior, and functional generation are distinct claims that require separate validation.

cs.LG↗

Rethinking One-Shot Federated Graph Learning: Training-Free Statistical Estimation

One-shot federated graph learning generally aims to train Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) across clients with disconnected subgraphs in a single communication round. Existing methods predominantly design advanced optimization strategies under the premise that local GNN training is indispensable. However, empirical observations reveal that under extreme non-IID conditions, local GNN training suffers from severe cross-client representation misalignment, becoming a major source of error rather than a remedy. Motivated by this, we reformulate one-shot FGL as a statistical estimation problem. We propose SPEAR (Statistical Prototype Estimation with Adaptive Reliability), a completely training-free framework that directly computes topology-smoothed class prototypes from local graphs in the original feature space. The server then aggregates these prototypes using a sample-size-adaptive shrinkage estimator that down-weights unreliable local estimates, producing robust global class prototypes. Extensive experiments across seven benchmarks demonstrate that SPEAR consistently achieves state-of-the-art accuracy under extreme heterogeneity. Moreover, SPEAR delivers at least an order-of-magnitude speedup over all baselines, reaching several orders of magnitude against generative and distillation-based methods. Our findings suggest that training-free statistical estimation, rather than local GNN optimization, provides the key to robust and efficient one-shot federated graph learning. The code is available at https://github.com/Yodeesy/SPEAR .

cs.LG↗

Structured Multi-Level-Set Inversion for 3-D Electromagnetic Inverse Scattering

Many dielectric targets encountered in 3-D electromagnetic inverse scattering exhibit piecewise-homogeneous material distributions, which provide useful structural information for inversion. To exploit this property, this paper proposes a structured multi-level-set inversion (SMLSI) method within a physics-driven neural network (PDNN) framework. Instead of directly parameterizing the contrast distribution, SMLSI represents it in terms of object support and material distribution. Multiple level-sets are mapped to soft-support functions and combined through a soft-union operation to construct the object support. The normalized contributions of these soft-support functions, together with trainable complex relative permittivities, determine the material distribution within the support. The level-set residuals are parameterized by a coordinate-based neural network, and the trainable parameters are optimized from scattered field data. Structure-aware regularization terms are introduced to promote binary object support and spatially coherent material regions while reducing material mixing and redundant activation of level-set supports. Adaptive regularization weighting is further employed to reduce the dependence on manual parameter tuning. Numerical experiments demonstrate that SMLSI improves reconstruction accuracy over direct contrast parameterization and enables the recovery of irregular 3-D geometries, closely spaced objects, and multiple material regions. Compared with CSI and $L_{2/3}$-FBE-WCIE, SMLSI achieves more accurate reconstructions on representative synthetic targets. Experimental validation using 3-D Fresnel data further demonstrates its applicability to measured scattering data.

cs.LG↗

Training-Free Task Vectors for LLM Behavioral Control

Task vectors enable post-training model editing by identifying semantically meaningful directions in weight space, typically computed as the difference between a fine-tuned model and its pretrained initialization. However, this reliance on fine-tuning makes discovering such directions costly and limits the practicality of post-training model editing. To address this limitation, we introduce Training-Free Task Vectors (TFTVs), a novel method to compute task-vector-like directions without requiring fine-tuning. Our method maps activation steering vectors to rank-one weight-space edits using only forward-pass statistics, while satisfying arithmetic properties that directly support learning via addition, forgetting via subtraction, and the composition of multiple edits. Empirically, we evaluate TFTVs on large language model behavioral control tasks and show that they consistently amplify, suppress, and compose target behaviors while preserving general knowledge and problem-solving skills. We also validate our method against other editing and steering baselines, experimentally demonstrating that TFTVs achieve stronger trait control with better or competitive utility preservation. We hope our work opens new directions for the community in post-training model editing and broader training-free model control. Code is available on the project website: tftv-llm.github.io.

cs.LG↗

Self-Organized Conformal Prediction: Reducing Regional Coverage Gaps with Unsupervised Group Discovery

Conformal prediction guarantees marginal coverage, but a pooled calibration quantile can hide systematic undercoverage across heterogeneous regions of the feature space. We introduce Self-Organized Conformal Prediction (SOCP), a calibration scheme that discovers input-space groups with an unsupervised Self-Organizing Map (SOM) trained without calibration data. At prediction time, the query's best-matching unit (BMU) retrieves a calibration buffer from one cell, a fixed grid neighborhood, or a prototype enlargement (Regimes 1 to 3). When fixed neighborhoods are too sparse, Regime 3 adds cells by prototype distance, using a global budget selected from training cell occupancies and the planned calibration size before any calibration score is observed. The predictor and nonconformity score remain unchanged. Cell-only retrieval has exact cell-conditional validity, and each fixed union of cells has exact retrieved-set validity. Interpreting a neighborhood threshold at its central cell incurs an explicit Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) bias term. Across ten regression and classification benchmarks, SOCP lowers the mean weighted coverage gap (WCovGap) relative to pooled split conformal prediction (SCP) on all ten datasets. The mean relative change is -14.8%, with a mean increase of 3.0% in output size. Under fixed-neighborhood retrieval, SO calibration lowers mean WCovGap across ten seeds in 43 of 50 score and dataset comparisons, while SO-SCP lowers it for every dataset at all three tested external partition granularities. These results provide local group calibration without supervised partitions or predictor retraining, while the diagnostics make the cost and limits of locality explicit. The code is available at https://github.com/LouisTier/SOCP.

stat.ML↗

LLMs Can Design Near-Optimal OR Algorithms

We ask whether large language models (LLMs) can design effective algorithms for well-specified operations research (OR) problems. We study inventory control, queueing network control, and assortment optimization, using benchmark instances from recent papers in each area. We evaluate two levels of LLM use: at level 1, the model receives one problem instance and returns a solution for that instance; at level 2, it receives only the problem class description and broad parameter ranges, and returns an algorithm that maps instance parameters to solutions. Human input is minimal: we give one untuned prompt that describes the problem, and the model has access to a Python sandbox tool with a fixed compute budget. The strongest model we test, gpt-5.6-sol, matches or outperforms the best method reported in those papers on almost all evaluated instances. This holds even at level 2, where the returned algorithm is fixed before seeing the evaluation instances. Performance also improves sharply across models released less than eight months apart, suggesting that this capability is moving quickly. Thus, for the well-specified operations problems we study, a single untuned LLM query can already produce algorithms competitive with specialized methods. These results suggest that frontier LLMs can be a serious empirical baseline for algorithm design in well-specified OR problems.

cs.AI↗