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arXiv2026

Hierarchical Possession-Aware Graph Pointer Network for Pass Receiver Selection

Pass receiver selection is a fundamental task in football analytics, aiming to predict the intended receiver under a given game state. This task is challenging with event-centered freeze-frame observations, a broadcast-like setting that provides only partial and variable player visibility without complete trajectories or stable player identities. The model must therefore reason over anonymous visible candidates, opponent pressure, and recent context under partial observation. To address this setting, we propose a Hierarchical Possession-aware Graph Pointer Network (HPGPN), which formulates pass receiver selection as variable-size candidate prediction over visible teammates. HPGPN jointly models current player interactions, local event context, and possession-level temporal dynamics. It represents the current pass situation with a graph, incorporates fixed event context, and uses dynamic possession history to capture how the attacking sequence evolves. Candidate representations are refined hierarchically by integrating spatial, contextual, and historical evidence, and a glimpse pointer head scores the receiver candidates. Experiments on public football event and freeze-frame data show that HPGPN improves pass receiver selection performance. Ablation studies demonstrate the effectiveness of graph-based interaction modeling, fixed event context, and dual-branch dynamic possession-history modeling.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Finding Many Overlapping Dense Subgraphs Using Triadic Cohorts

Graphs are a standard representation for data in the social sciences, cybersecurity, computer infrastructure, bioinformatics, and more. Typical real-world graphs are sparse, meaning the average degree is small (in the tens, while the number of vertices is more than millions). When graph data is collected from a source, a major task is to perform data exploration. Thus, any region of ``density" is of interest, since it indicates special structure. An important goal is to cover a significant portion of the graph using dense subgraphs. Existing algorithms that find many dense subgraphs do not have overlapping output, and hence provide limited coverage. Other methods that produce overlapping clusters do not generate dense subgraphs. The main goal of this paper is to develop provable and practical methods that can provide overlapping dense subgraphs that can cover large portions of real-world networks. Our contribution is an algorithm CohortRecovery that achieves this goal. We first develop a mathematical framework of triadic cohorts that captures the notion of ``detectable dense subgraphs'' that potentially overlap. We prove that CohortRecovery can output a set of dense subgraphs, such that each triadic cohort is almost completely contained in some dense subgraph. We give a practical implementation of CohortRecovery and demonstrate it on a variety of datasets. It typically runs in under ten minutes on a commodity machine even on graphs with tens of millions of edges. For numerous datasets, CohortRecovery is able to cover more than 25\% of the vertices in non-trivial subgraphs of density more than 0.8, and is significantly better than a wide variety of scalable graph clustering/community detection algorithms. Moreover, we demonstrate that output of CohortRecovery captures ground truth clusters obtained by manual curation.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2026

Who's Blocking Whom? Candidate Generation and Block Prediction on Bluesky

Blocking is a widely used tool that helps people manage unwanted interactions on social platforms. We study the problem of predicting block events on Bluesky: whether a given user will block a particular account, given recent interaction, network, activity, and content signals. Using more than three million block events and over 260 million user interactions, we examine several formulations of the directed block prediction problem, differing in which possible targets are considered and how negative examples are selected. We observe that only about 5% of user blocks are preceded by a recent direct interaction. Expanding the set of possible targets to include accounts connected through a common neighbor raises the share to about 22%, once high-degree accounts are excluded as intermediaries. Conditional on candidate inclusion, Hits@1 ranges from 61.3% to 72.4%, compared with a random baseline of 16.7%. However, predictive performance and the signals used by the models depend strongly on how candidates and comparison examples are constructed. Although our goal is to empirically analyze user behavior rather than to propose a deployable system, these findings are relevant to user-facing moderation tools that might help users identify accounts they may wish to avoid or block. In such tools, candidate generation would be a substantive design and evaluation choice rather than merely a preprocessing step.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2026

WolfSociety: Understanding Collective Risk from Harmful-Agent Scaling in Financial Agent Societies

Safety evaluations typically focus on individual agents, but interacting agents can spread harmful information and influence the environment in which later decisions are made. We study how collective failure changes with harmful-agent fraction and society size in a controlled financial agent society, where agents communicate over a social network and trade in a shared market. In the primary financial scenario, collective failure requires broad harmful diffusion together with severe price dislocation or liquidity stress. Across all tested society sizes, failure remains rare at low harmful fractions but rises sharply over a narrow range. As society size grows from N=100 to N=2000, the harmful fraction associated with a 50% failure probability decreases from 4.7% to 2.2%, while the corresponding number of harmful agents increases from approximately 5 to 44. In contrast, when the number of harmful agents is held fixed, their impact becomes weaker as the society grows. Controlled interventions further show that broader network reach shifts the collapse boundary toward lower harmful fractions, whereas stronger conformity alone has little effect. To characterize these effects, we introduce Agent Society Dynamics, a finite-size framework for relating harmful-agent fraction, society size, and interaction structure to collective failure. Overall, our results reveal a nonlinear, size-dependent collapse transition in financial agent societies, showing that collective failure depends not only on the prevalence of harmful agents but also on the size and interaction structure of the surrounding society. Code is available at https://github.com/SAIL-Research-Lab/WolfSociety.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2026

Reddit Community Interventions and Cross-Platform Response: Migration and Policy-Response Discourse on Voat

Platform moderation can disrupt online communities, but the responses that follow do not necessarily take the form of direct migration. Communities may relocate, reorganize, discuss moderation decisions, express censorship concerns, or continue activity on alternative platforms without clear evidence of user-level movement. This study examines Reddit community bans and quarantines and their relationship with activity and migration-related discourse on Voat. Using data from the Multi-Platform Aggregated Dataset of Online Communities (MADOC), we analyze interventions affecting FatPeopleHate, GreatAwakening, MillionDollarExtreme, and CringeAnarchy. We combine computational discourse screening with a stratified independent human-validation procedure and population-adjusted estimates across 90-day pre- and post-intervention windows. The results reveal heterogeneous cross-platform responses. FatPeopleHate experienced a substantial increase in overall Voat activity while the relative prevalence of policy-response and broader relevant discourse declined. CringeAnarchy showed declines in direct migration and policy-response discourse following its permanent ban, although some estimates were sensitive to uncertain human labels. GreatAwakening instead exhibited a modest increase in policy-response discourse without clear evidence of increased direct migration. These findings suggest that platform interventions do not produce a uniform migration process. Overall destination-platform activity and migration-related discourse may move in different directions, highlighting the importance of distinguishing behavioral migration from broader discussion of moderation, censorship, governance, and community rebuilding.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2026

CARDIO-Affect: A Hamiltonian-Variability Framework for Spatio-Temporal Emotional Pattern Recognition with Manifold-Based Individual and Group Profiling

We present CARDIO-Affect, a complex-systems theoretical framework for long-term emotional dynamics in bounded social groups, with explicit uncertainty quantification at every layer. Long-period naturalistic emotion in stable small groups exhibits hallmarks of complex systems -- multi-stable attractors, weak chaos, long-range memory, and sparse heterogeneous coupling -- invisible to conventional short-clip facial-emotion analysis. CARDIO-Affect treats individual emotion as a multi-stable nonlinear stochastic dynamical system and group emotion as a sparsely-coupled network with emergent macrostates, formalised through six propositions and four pillars: (i) statistical mechanics with neural-parameterised Hamiltonian SDE over asymmetric potentials; (ii) information geometry on a 45-dimensional Fisher-Rao manifold; (iii) topological data analysis for invariant trajectory signatures; (iv) HRV-inspired Emotional Variability Analytics (EVA) decomposing each person-day into multi-scale time/frequency/nonlinear measures. We validate on the first 30.1-month longitudinal in-the-wild facial-emotion corpus (companion: arXiv:2510.15221) by discovering three falsifiable paradoxes: Sparse-Contagion (R_0=0.36, density 2.7%, 8 BH-FDR edges), Asymmetric-Persistence (negative dwell 5.85x positive, 1.77D potential gap), and Crisis-Inversion (Shanghai 2022 lockdown naive d=-0.40 collapses to permutation-p=0.94 under BSTS + synthetic-control). On synthetic benchmarks, CARDIO-EBM v2 matches asymptotically optimal Granger on linear VAR data (Class A AUROC 0.984+/-0.012 vs Granger 0.997+/-0.001, 5 seeds) but fails on tanh-coupled nonlinear data (Class B AUROC 0.490 vs Granger 0.796), a documented limitation of the linear mask-self estimator. We release framework code and the full reproduction pipeline.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2026

From Leakage to Fidelity: Reliable Benchmarking for Temporal Cascade Prediction

Temporal cascade prediction is widely studied, yet its empirical foundations remain fragile. Most existing works report results under random cascade splits that mix past and future signals, rely on datasets with limited features and no downstream conversion labels, and compare increasingly complex models without systematically examining whether benchmark conclusions are protocol-dependent. This paper argues that the field should move from leakage-prone evaluation toward fidelity-aware benchmarking. We introduce a protocol suite and renewed evaluation standard for temporal cascade prediction, centered on the Full Temporal protocol, overlap-based leakage diagnostics, and analyses of performance inflation and temporal drift. To broaden the scope of benchmark tasks, we also present Taoke, a real-world e-commerce cascade dataset with rich promoter/product features and observed purchase conversions, enabling both first-stage popularity forecasting and second-stage conversion forecasting under a shared benchmark asset. Finally, we include CasTemp as a lightweight reference method and additionally probe a larger same-task internal extension to verify that this pipeline remains operational at substantially greater scale. Together, these components turn cascade prediction from a protocol-sensitive leaderboard exercise into a more reliable analysis and benchmarking problem, while still providing a practical reference pipeline for large-scale evaluation and conversion-aware modeling.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Simplify to Amplify: Achieving Information-Theoretic Bounds with Fewer Steps in Spectral Community Detection

We propose a streamlined spectral algorithm for community detection in the two-community stochastic block model (SBM) under constant edge density assumptions. By reducing algorithmic complexity through the elimination of non-essential preprocessing steps, our method directly leverages the spectral properties of the adjacency matrix. We demonstrate that our algorithm exploits specific characteristics of the second eigenvector to achieve improved error bounds that approach information-theoretic limits, representing a significant improvement over existing methods. Theoretical analysis establishes that our error rates are tighter than previously reported bounds in the literature. Comprehensive experimental validation confirms our theoretical findings and demonstrates the practical effectiveness of the simplified approach. Our results suggest that algorithmic simplification, rather than increasing complexity, can lead to both computational efficiency and enhanced performance in spectral community detection.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2026

Constructing the Field of Philanthropic and Nonprofit Studies: Evidence from Citation Networks

Philanthropic and nonprofit studies (PNPS) has grown rapidly as an interdisciplinary field, yet its intellectual structure and boundaries remain only partially visible. This study maps the field by combining journal- and keyword-based retrieval with citation network analysis, natural language processing, and large language model-assisted cluster labeling. Using 60,917 Web of Science articles, we identify major topical communities, examine their structural connections, and assess how well mainstream PNPS journals represent the broader landscape of related scholarship. The results show that PNPS is a loosely connected field dominated by three distinct "power centers": nonprofit organizations, social movements, and voluntary action. The analysis also reveals a broader disciplinary footprint than commonly recognized, extending beyond the social sciences and humanities into areas such as biomedicine and technology. These findings clarify the organization of PNPS and highlight opportunities for stronger integration across research domains.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2026

When Vision Meets Graphs: A Survey on Graph Reasoning and Learning

Graphs are a fundamental data structure underlying many problems in the natural and social sciences. Over the past decade, Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have dominated graph machine learning, supported by solid theoretical foundations. Yet scientists often understand graph structure through vision: chemists read molecular diagrams and social scientists inspect network visualizations. Despite decades of work on graph visualization, most graph learning pipelines still treat graphs purely as symbolic structures, rarely leveraging the visual form of graphs. We argue that this gap deserves renewed attention in the era of powerful vision and vision-language models. This survey provides a first systematic overview of the emerging area we term vision meets graphs, which treats visual depictions of graphs as first-class inputs for reasoning and learning. We organize existing work into three threads. Vision for Graph Reasoning studies how models can use visual depictions of graphs to understand structure and carry out multi-step reasoning. Vision for Graph Learning explores how visual features can complement or augment graph encoders beyond known limitations of message passing. Scientific Graphs examines domains where standardized depiction conventions support both reasoning and learning. Our goal is to clarify what current methods can and cannot do, and to outline a path toward foundation models that perceive and reason about graphs as scientists do.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2026

Fair Top-k Katz Centrality via Graph Design

Centrality measures are widely used to rank nodes in networked data, but fairness interventions for graph centrality typically target global score mass or modify the centrality operator rather than controlling who appears in the displayed top-k ranking. We study this top-k setting for Katz centrality. Given a target group proportion, an admissible set of directed edge additions, and a fairness tolerance, the goal is to find the smallest edit set whose resulting Katz top-k ranking satisfies the target representation constraint. We formalize this problem as Fair Top-k Katz Centrality Design and show that the minimum-edit objective is strongly inapproximable, ruling out worst-case polynomial-time approximation guarantees unless P = NP. We then derive closed-form Katz sensitivity expressions showing that useful edits are boundary-driven: they must help promotable nodes outside the top-k set overtake opposing nodes inside it. Based on this structure, we develop BLADE, a scalable boundary-link algorithm that avoids dense Katz-kernel maintenance by using score-based direct-target batches and warm-started Katz updates. Experiments on synthetic and real-world networks show that BLADE reaches the desired top-k representation using far fewer edits than natural baselines, while scaling to large real-world graphs and preserving the original ranking structure.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2026

Modelling infodemics on a global scale: A 30 countries study using epidemiological and social listening data

Infodemics represent a significant threat to public health, arising from complex interactions between online and offline phenomena. The continuous feedback loops between digital information ecosystems and real-world contingencies make infodemics particularly challenging to define operationally, measure, and eventually model in quantitative terms. This study aims to evaluate the effect of various epidemic-related variables on the dynamics of the COVID-19 infodemic, using a regression modeling framework applied to data from 30 countries across diverse income groups. We use World Health Organization (WHO) COVID-19 surveillance data on new cases and deaths, vaccination data from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, infodemic data (volume of public conversations and social media content) from the WHO EARS platform, and Google Trends data to represent information demand. Our findings show that new deaths are the strongest predictor of document production, and that the epidemic burden in neighboring countries exerts a greater influence on document production than domestic epidemic conditions. Building on these results, we propose a data-driven classification of country-level response that highlights country-specific discrepancies between the evolution of the infodemic and the epidemic. Further, an analysis of the temporal evolution of the relationship between the two phenomena quantifies the extent to which discussions surrounding vaccine rollouts may have shaped the development of the infodemic. Beyond underscoring the value of a holistic approach that integrates both online and offline dimensions, our results demonstrate that the evolution of infodemics and their relationship with epidemic variables can be closely monitored, even over short time windows.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2026

AI agents reshape consensus formation in human groups

As large language model (LLM) agents shift from tools to participants in human groups, a fundamental question for collective behavior is how their growing presence reshapes consensus formation. Here we study mixed human-AI groups in a collaborative description game, in which shared conventions emerge through repeated rounds of random pairwise communication. Varying the proportions of LLM agents, we identify three distinct regimes of consensus formation: low agent proportions facilitate human-led consensus, intermediate proportions disrupt convergence, and high proportions restore strong consensus while shifting it toward agent-led conventions. Crucially, these regimes differ not only in the strength of convergence, but also in the semantic grounding and communicative form of the resulting consensus: human-led consensus is more concrete, holistic, and grounded in shared real-world analogies, whereas agent-led consensus is more abstract, less information-dense, and more geometrically segmented. Mechanistically, agent influence arises from a shared linguistic prior that places agents near one another in the expression space, combined with relatively stable expression choices across rounds; humans initially resist adopting expressions from partners perceived as AI but gradually yield to conformity pressure. These findings provide evidence that AI composition can shape the emergence, content, and perceived legitimacy of group norms, making agent proportion and transparency important design variables for human-AI systems.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Statistical Feature Augmentation for Anomaly Detection in Dynamic Graphs

Dynamic networks are being applied in many domains, from social media to logistics systems, each with their own set of special characteristics. A model employed on this type of data must capture the duality between temporal/structural and feature-based information. Yet state-of-the-art deep learning models often struggle to learn especially short-term behavioral interaction signals, such as sender intensity or interaction inertia, directly from raw event streams. To address this gap, we propose a statistical feature augmentation method that explicitly encodes behavioral interaction statistics into the input feature space. We evaluate our proposed method on an anomaly detection task across three real-world datasets (Reddit, Wikipedia, MOOC) and seven models spanning both continuous-time and discrete-time architectures. As a baseline, we apply the same models trained on the original embeddings. Our results show, that augmentation consistently improves detection performance. Beyond performance, the enriched input enables fine-grained post-hoc analysis of behavioral importance, since each statistic occupies a dedicated input dimension. In particular, this work showcases a promising approach for merging classical network analysis with deep learning.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2026

From Euclidean to Graph-Structured Data: A Survey of Collaborative Learning

The conventional approach to machine learning, that is, collecting data, training models, and performing inference in a single location, faces fundamental limitations, including scalability and privacy, that restrict its applicability. To address these challenges, recent research has explored collaborative learning approaches, including federated learning and decentralized learning, where individual agents perform training and inference locally, with limited collaboration. Most collaborative learning research focuses on Euclidean data with regular, grid-like structure (e.g., images, text). However, these approaches fail to capture the relational patterns in many real-world applications, best represented by graphs. Learning on graphs relies on message-passing mechanisms to propagate information between connected nodes, making it conceptually well-suited for collaborative environments where agents must exchange information. Yet, the opportunities and challenges of learning on graph-structured data in collaborative settings remain largely underexplored. This survey provides a comprehensive investigation of collaborative learning from Euclidean to graph-structured data, aiming to consolidate this emerging field. We begin by reviewing its foundational principles for Euclidean data, organizing them along three core dimensions: learning effectiveness, efficiency, and privacy preservation. We then extend the discussion to graph-structured data, introducing a taxonomy of graph distribution scenarios, characterizing associated statistical heterogeneities, and developing standardized problem formulations and algorithmic frameworks. Finally, we systematically identify open challenges and promising research directions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Optimization of geometric hypergraph embedding

We consider the problem of embedding the nodes of a hypergraph into Euclidean space under the assumption that the interactions arose through closeness to unknown hyperedge centres. In this way, we tackle the inverse problem associated with the generation of geometric random hypergraphs. We propose two new spectral algorithms; both of these exploit the connection between hypergraphs and bipartite graphs. The assumption of an underlying geometric structure allows us to define a concrete measure of success that can be used to optimize the embedding via gradient descent. Synthetic tests show that this approach accurately reveals geometric structure that is planted in the data, and tests on real hypergraphs show that the approach is also useful for the downstream tasks of detecting spurious or missing data and node clustering.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2026

A Survey of Densest Subgraph Discovery on Large Graphs

With the prevalence of graphs for modeling complex relationships among objects, the topic of graph mining has attracted a great deal of attention from both academic and industrial communities in recent years. As one of the most fundamental problems in graph mining, the densest subgraph discovery (DSD) problem has found a wide spectrum of real applications, such as discovery of filter bubbles in social media, finding groups of actors propagating misinformation in social media, social network community detection, graph index construction, regulatory motif discovery in DNA, fake follower detection, and so on. Theoretically, DSD closely relates to other fundamental graph problems, such as network flow and bipartite matching. Triggered by these applications and connections, DSD has garnered much attention from the database, data mining, theory, and network communities. In this survey, we first highlight the importance of DSD in various real-world applications and the unique challenges that need to be addressed. Subsequently, we classify existing DSD solutions into several groups, which cover around 50 research papers published in many well-known venues (e.g., SIGMOD, PVLDB, TODS, WWW), and conduct a thorough review of these solutions in each group. Afterwards, we analyze and compare the models and solutions in these works. Finally, we point out a list of promising future research directions. It is our hope that this survey not only helps researchers have a better understanding of existing densest subgraph models and solutions, but also provides insights and identifies directions for future study.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2026

Fair Minimum Labeling: Efficient Temporal Network Activations for Reachability and Equity

Balancing resource efficiency and fairness is critical in networked systems that support modern learning applications. We introduce the \emph{Fair Minimum Labeling} (FML) problem: the task of designing a minimum-cost temporal edge activation plan that ensures each group of nodes in a network has sufficient access to a designated target set, according to specified coverage requirements. FML captures key trade-offs in systems where edge activations incur resource costs and equitable access is essential, such as distributed data collection, update dissemination in edge-cloud systems, and fair service restoration in critical infrastructure. We first give a structural characterisation of the single-terminal case, showing that it is equivalent to the rooted Covering Steiner problem. We prove that FML is NP-hard and admits no $((1-ε)\ln |\mathcal{C}|)$-approximation for $|\mathcal{C}|$ groups, already on a star, while for any fixed number of groups it inherits a constant-factor approximation and remains APX-hard. We then present probabilistic approximation algorithms for the two-group, single-terminal case: an algorithm whose tree subroutine is exact, hence optimal on tree-structured networks and $\mathcal{O}(\log |V|)$ in expectation on general graphs, together with a faster bicriteria variant whose coverage violation degrades gracefully with the merge depth of the tree computation. For practical scalability, we additionally introduce a graph-native variant based on a shortest-path-tree reduction. Empirical results show that FML enforces group-level fairness, while the graph-native variant substantially improves scalability and achieves competitive activation cost.

cs.SI↗