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arXiv2026

GPU-Enabled Large-Scale Optimization Using Randomized Linear Algebra

This paper introduces rlaopt, a PyTorch-based package for large-scale optimization and scientific computing using randomized numerical linear algebra (RandNLA). Despite substantial progress in RandNLA-based algorithms, few implementations combine GPU acceleration with a simple interface for specifying optimization problems. rlaopt addresses this gap by providing GPU-enabled solvers for positive-definite linear systems and convex empirical risk minimization with constraints and regularizers. These solvers use RandNLA to accelerate conjugate gradient (NystromPCG), operator splitting (NysADMM), and stochastic gradient methods (SAPPHIRE). Moreover, rlaopt includes a modeling language that lets users specify problems using natural mathematical syntax. rlaopt automatically checks compatibility with the selected solver and performs the required problem decomposition. The solvers also support differentiation through their iterations, enabling applications such as hyperparameter tuning. Experiments on ridge regression, bounded multinomial logistic regression, and bounded elastic net identify when randomized preconditioning improves performance and demonstrate substantial speedups from GPU execution. The package is open-source under an Apache license, with source code at https://github.com/udellgroup/rlaopt and version 0.1.0 available on PyPI.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Optimal Slice-Adaptive Tuning of Hybrid Slice Sampling

Slice sampling is a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that draws its next state uniformly from a "slice"---a super-level set of the target density function---at each iteration, thereby providing automatic local adaptivity to the scale of the target. In practice the exact slice is not known, so general-purpose implementations use an approximate slice that is grown from a starting interval of length $w>0$, with a computational cost that depends on $w$. This work presents an analysis of the average per-iteration number of target density evaluations, as a function of $w$, of hybrid slice sampling with various slice-finding schemes for targets with contiguous slices. The paper uses the results of the analysis to develop automated, slice-adaptive tuning schemes along with suboptimality bounds and asymptotic convergence guarantees. Simulations demonstrate that the tuning schemes reliably yield near-optimal slice-adaptive tuning with essentially no dependence on the initial setting of $w$.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2026

Speed Limit for Information Acquisition in Stochastic Learning Dynamics

Neural networks acquire internal representations through learning. In this work, we formulate stochastic gradient descent (SGD) as a Markovian stochastic process and derive a Fisher-information flow speed limit that bounds the rate at which trainable parameters can acquire information about latent variables in the data-generating process. The resulting inequality decomposes the information flow into drift and noise contributions, thereby quantifying the roles of deterministic learning forces and SGD-induced fluctuations from an information-theoretic perspective. We verify the bound in analytically tractable basis-function linear regression, where the information budget predicted by the bound reproduces the ordering and characteristic time scales with which different latent variables are encoded in the learned parameters. These results establish Fisher-information speed limits as a quantitative framework for diagnosing when and how different aspects of the data-generating mechanism are acquired during stochastic learning.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2026

Distribution-free inference on the number of changepoints

Suppose we are given an ordered sequence of independent data whose distribution changes $K$ times at unknown locations, for some unknown $K \geq 0$. In this paper, we study the problem of performing distribution-free inference on $K$. First, we show an impossibility result: any distribution-free upper confidence bound on $K$ must be trivial and uninformative. Then, using conformal $p$-values, and under only the assumption that the data segments induced by the changepoints are exchangeable (within themselves) and mutually independent, we construct a finite-sample valid lower confidence bound on $K$, which we call the Conformal LOwer bound on Changepoint Count (CLOCC). We show that CLOCC is the only feasible way to provide a lower bound on $K$ under the stated assumptions, a property we refer to as its universality. We provide practical guidelines for choosing score functions that yield efficient and tight lower bounds. We evaluate CLOCC in several synthetic and real-data experiments, where it provides informative lower bounds on $K$, demonstrating its practical applicability.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

The Exact Time-Uniform Rate Frontier for Stochastic Gradient Descent on Smooth Convex Objectives

We study the time-uniform convergence of the raw iterate of standard stochastic gradient descent (SGD) for unconstrained smooth convex objectives. We prove that, under standard noise assumptions, the time-uniform convergence rate gets arbitrarily close to $\sqrt{\log n / n}$ but never reaches it. More specifically, we prove that for every positive, eventually nondecreasing sequence $h$ satisfying $h(n) = o(\sqrt{n})$, a bound of order $h(n)/\sqrt{n}$, holding simultaneously for all $n$ with probability at least $1-α$ and uniformly over the problem class, is achievable if and only if \[ \sum_{j = 1}^{\infty} \frac{1}{h(2^j)^2} < \infty. \] The constructive sufficiency result follows from a dyadic horizon-free schedule together with an additive conditional-restart inequality. The necessity counterpart applies to every deterministic nonnegative schedule and holds even for a one-dimensional analytic smooth convex objective with Gaussian noise.

math.OC↗

arXiv2026

Non-Adaptive 1-Bit Mean Estimation: Minimax Rates and the Sample-Interval Tradeoff

We study distributed one-dimensional mean estimation under a 1-bit communication constraint. Each agent observes one sample, drawn independently from an unknown distribution, and returns a single bit in response to a query $Q: \mathbb{R}\to\{0,1\}$ chosen by a central learner. The distribution has mean in $[-λ,λ]$ and $k$-th central moment at most $σ^k$, for a fixed $k>1$. The order-optimal two-stage protocol of Lau and Scarlett uses responses from the first batch to choose the second-batch queries, motivating the question of whether this single round of interaction is necessary. We answer this negatively: for every $k>1$, a non-adaptive protocol attains the adaptive 1-bit minimax rate (and concurrent works reached the same conclusion via different strategies). We further determine the minimax sample complexity among non-adaptive 1-bit estimators when every one-set $Q^{-1}(1)$ is restricted to a union of at most $s$ intervals. Relative to unrestricted non-adaptive 1-bit querying, this constraint adds a term of order $(λσ/(s\varepsilon^2))\log(1/δ)$, giving the full tradeoff between sample complexity and interval complexity to within $k$-dependent constant factors. As a corollary, we identify, order-wise, the minimum interval budget needed to retain the unrestricted 1-bit minimax sample rate.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

AlphaRJM: Reward-Jump Memory for Stochastic Return-Guided Alpha Discovery

Formulaic alpha discovery is a pool-dependent symbolic search problem in which informative feedback is observed primarily when a complete expression is evaluated. This delayed feedback creates two coupled difficulties: the retained alpha pool does not preserve the full history of realized evaluation feedback, and the value of an intermediate construction action is uncertain because its consequence depends on the formula eventually completed. We introduce AlphaRJM, which addresses these difficulties through Reward-Jump Memory, an event-driven latent state that remains fixed during token construction and updates only at terminal evaluation events using the realized pool reward and evaluation outcome, and an action-conditioned SDE return critic that represents future discounted discovery returns with stochastic particles. The particles guide action selection through their mean and uncertainty and are learned using a distributional Bellman objective combining energy-distance matching, mean calibration, and jump regularization. Empirically, AlphaRJM delivers strong and stable gains across multiple equity universes, forecasting horizons, and random seeds, while ablations confirm the complementary roles of persistent evaluation history, stochastic return modeling, and distributional supervision.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Optimal estimation for Functional Linear Regression with Noisy Discretized Data

In this paper, we consider the scalar-on-function linear regression model under a realistic sampling scheme in which the functional covariates are observed on a regular grid and contaminated by additive noise. We propose a two-step estimation procedure: first, the underlying curves are reconstructed from the discrete noisy observations using a Fourier-based projection method; second, the slope function is estimated by a penalized least-squares criterion over finite-dimensional trigonometric spaces, with data-driven selection of the model dimension. We establish oracle-type inequalities for the prediction error, both with respect to the reconstructed curves and to the true latent curves. Under regularity assumptions on the slope function and polynomial decay of the eigenvalues of the covariate, we derive convergence rates for the prediction error and show that our estimator attains the minimax rate when the number of grid points is sufficiently large. Finally, the proposed method is illustrated on simulated data and on a real meteorological dataset.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

High-Magnetization Sampling at Low Temperatures: Ising Models and Bayesian Sparse Linear Regression

Sparsity is a powerful structural resource in optimization and statistics. We develop frameworks for leveraging sparsity in sampling problems over the Hamming slice $\mathcal{X}_k^d:=\{\mathbf{x}\in\{\pm 1\}^d:|\{i:\mathbf{x}_i=1\}|=k\}$, in high-dimensional regimes where $k\ll d$ (i.e., where $\mathcal{X}_k^d$ is \emph{highly magnetized}). We use our frameworks to design improved samplers for canonical problems in the study of \emph{Ising models} and \emph{Bayesian sparse linear regression}. Our first main result considers the \emph{Sherrington--Kirkpatrick} (SK) model restricted to fixed-magnetization slices $\mathcal{X}_k^d$. We give a polynomial-time sampler for fixed-magnetization SK models at any inverse temperature $β>0$, under arbitrary external fields, provided that $k\le c_βd$ for an appropriate constant $c_β$. By combining this result with an annealing strategy for estimating normalizing constants, we obtain polynomial-time samplers for the SK model at arbitrarily low temperatures under a sufficiently strong external field of strength $h$. In the large-$β$ limit, our framework permits sampling at field strengths within constant factors of the \emph{Almeida--Thouless line} delineating the replica-symmetric and replica-symmetry-breaking regions ([dAT78]), improving polynomially over the field strength $h(β)$ required by the recent work of [BAR26]. Our second main result concerns the measurement complexity of polynomial-time Bayesian sparse linear regression. Recent work by [KSTZ25] shows how to sample from the canonical \emph{Gaussian spike-and-slab posterior} with expected sparsity $k$, at any signal-to-noise ratio, given $n\gtrsim k^3\log^3 d$ Gaussian measurements. We improve this requirement to $n\gtrsim k^{3/2}\log^2 d+k\log^3 d$, using a common sparsity-aware framework underlying both our results.

cs.DS↗

arXiv2026

A Generalization of Amari's Bayesian Duality

Amari's contributions to information geometry and machine learning are well known. Here, we revisit Amari's work on Bayesian duality which has not received as much attention. We connect Amari's Bayesian duality to a convex duality of Bayes' rule. Using this connection, we present a generalization of Amari's Bayesian duality and discuss its relevance for modern artificial intelligence.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Nearly Tight Rademacher Bounds for Sparsely Activated Neural Networks

An input may activate few hidden units even when different inputs collectively use an entire network. We study the statistical complexity of this input-dependent sparsity in the one-hidden-layer ReLU model of Awasthi et al. (COLT 2024). For width $s$, at most $k$ active units per input, and effective weight and bias bounds $W,B$, every size-$m$ sample in the class's fixed radius-$R$ input domain satisfies $\mathcal{R}(S)\le CWR\min\{k,\sqrt{sk/m}\log^{3/2}(2m)\}+kB/\sqrt m$. A support-preserving cover and a single normalized chaining argument remove the previous explicit dimension factor, up to logarithms. Lower bounds on appropriate i.i.d. marginals match up to those logarithms, showing how changing active units across inputs retains a width dependence. The input domain matters: zero-bias networks sparse on the entire ball have at most $2k$ nonzero units and complexity $O(kWR/\sqrt m)$, whereas bias bounds comparable to $WR$ restore the worst-case rate on that same domain in only logarithmic dimension. A spherical-cap construction proves the latter claim without assuming sparsity merely on the sampling support. For a specified normalized bounded loss and biases comparable to $WR$, we also obtain agnostic minimax excess-risk bounds of order $\min\{1,\sqrt{s/(km)}\}$ up to logarithms.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Critical initialization destabilizes higher input derivatives in wide scalar-input networks

The edge-of-chaos condition preserves first-order input perturbations in wide randomly initialized networks, but physics-informed losses, score matching and derivative regularization depend on higher input derivatives. For smooth scalar-input fully connected networks, using a joint Gaussianity of the finite derivative jet that holds in the infinite-width limit at each fixed depth, we derive mean-field recursions through third order that are exact at the variance fixed point, with finite-depth corrections that decay geometrically. At criticality, the first-derivative variance is depth-invariant, whereas the second-derivative variance grows linearly whenever the activation has nonzero curvature. The resulting third-order system closes on mean-field susceptibilities. For residual networks with branch scale L^{-1/2}, we prove that every fixed finite derivative order has uniformly bounded variance under explicit regularity assumptions. Simulations verify the critical growth laws, the residual bound, and the closed recursion. The results concern initialization, not trained-network performance.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

What Fixed-Rollout pass@k Evaluations Can Identify

Repeated-sampling evaluations increasingly extrapolate pass@k far beyond the number n of samples collected per problem. We show that, in the pooled/random-task conditional-Binomial model, fixed-n success counts identify only the n free moments of the latent per-task success distribution. Consequently, direct pass@k is identified for k <= n, but generic extrapolated pass@k, tail exponents, and tail constants are not identified for k > n, even with arbitrarily many exchangeable tasks at the same rollout budget. This is stronger than the observation that the usual estimator is undefined beyond n: it characterizes the information missing from the fixed-depth count-law experiment. We give exact count-law-preserving constructions with incompatible extrapolations, state the exceptional unique-extension case, and compute sharp population identified intervals through Hausdorff principal representations. On the public 10,000-rollout-per-problem release of Brown et al., counterfactual n = 16 evaluations leave failure at k = 1000 ambiguous by factors from 1.5 to over 2,600 across four MATH/GSM8K/CodeContests configurations. The calibration shows that intermediate-scale failure share alone does not determine width. Our result does not reject parametric inference-time scaling laws; it supplies the nonparametric baseline against which their assumptions can be evaluated. We give an exact, conservative one-coordinate finite-task confidence certificate and a reporting standard separating direct estimates, identified sets, and model-conditioned forecasts.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

CAST: Canonical Approximate Schur Tree for Approximate Cholesky on Graphs

Graph-data workloads such as diffusion estimation, ranking, semi-supervised learning, and network optimization often solve many Laplacian or symmetric diagonally dominant M-matrix (SDDM) systems with the same coefficient matrix. Approximate Cholesky preconditioners eliminate vertices one at a time and store the resulting sparse approximate factorization, the \emph{factor}, whose construction cost is amortized across these solves. But eliminating a vertex, the \emph{pivot}, creates a dense Schur-complement clique among its $d$ active neighbors. We introduce CAST (Canonical Approximate Schur Tree), which replaces this clique with a weighted random spanning tree sampled directly from it. Every realization is connected and contains exactly d-1 edges, while reweighting each selected edge by the reciprocal of its tree-inclusion probability makes the update unbiased. The distribution is independent of the ordering of the pivot neighbors, and we prove that its leverage-score marginals minimize the largest normalized reweighted-edge contribution among unbiased inverse-marginal one-tree estimators. We also introduce CAST-$ρ$, which replaces each pivot neighbor with $ρ$ copies, each carrying a $1/ρ$ share of that neighbor's incident weight, samples a weighted random spanning tree on the expanded clique, and contracts the copies back to the original neighborhood. The resulting update remains unbiased and connected, can be sampled exactly in $O(ρd)$ time, and satisfies a $1/ρ$ bound on the second moment of the normalized local Schur error. Increasing $ρ$ therefore reduces certified local sampling variability, but may increase construction cost and downstream fill. Empirically, we observe that CAST-1 is the faster default, whereas CAST-2 is preferable when its additional edge contributions remain inexpensive.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Accountable and uncertainty-aware evaluation of sensor-based AI under distribution shift: devices, subjects, and nearly three years underground

Sensor-based AI systems are rarely operated under the conditions under which they were trained: devices, personnel and recording epochs change, and each change degrades performance in ways a random train-test split cannot reveal. We propose a staged, accountable evaluation protocol that treats the evaluation of a deployed model as a measurement with declared reference levels and a quantified uncertainty. Four cumulative generalisation stages hold out devices, subjects and time. Each stage is judged on quantiles of repeated trainings against chance references with the correct class count, an out-of-present-scope rate exposes silent misdirection towards classes that are no longer present in deployment relative to training, and an explicit decision rule ties roll-out decisions not to means but to 5% quantiles. We demonstrate the protocol on infrastructure-free geomagnetic localisation with smartphone-based recurrent classifiers in two real underground mines, including a replication of the scheme's training stages at the second site. Unchanged models are re-evaluated on data recorded 34 months after the training campaign, on a device generation unknown at training time and with a held-out surveyor. The 5% quantile of their present-conditioned precision there is 0.39 over 299 repeated trainings, 16.5 times the chance level; across the composition of the 42 reachable location classes the figure varies by +/-0.08, several times the spread between repeated runs. Repeated trainings of a single configuration show why means mislead: a bimodal configuration passes a mean-based test decisively while its 5% quantile lies more than an order of magnitude below chance.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Tensor Network Moral Graph Recovery of Discrete Probability Distributions

We present a method for recovering the moral graph of a causal DAG from a probability distribution over discrete variables, using fully connected tensor networks (FCTNs) with nuclear-norm-regularized bond corrections. Each bond matrix is parameterized as a baseline all-ones matrix plus a low-rank correction $C_{ij} = U_{ij}V_{ij}^\top$, and the nuclear norm of the correction implemented via the variational Frobenius norm penalty on the factors drives unnecessary bonds to zero. We prove that under faithfulness, positivity, and a no-implicit-rerouting assumption on the local tensor architecture, \textbf{every} optimal FCTN with zero reconstruction error $\varepsilon = 0$ has effective graph exactly equal to the moral graph. For the approximate regime ($\varepsilon > 0$), we provide explicit recovery bounds using the Fannes-Audenaert continuity of conditional mutual information, and derive a sufficient condition on the regularization parameter $β$. The effective graph is read directly from the optimized bond matrices.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

MiNCE: Nonparametric, Strongly Consistent Confidence Envelopes for Band-Limited Functions and their Smoothed Spectra

Minimum-norm confidence envelope strategies offer a nonparametric approach to constructing nonasymptotic, simultaneous confidence regions for band-limited functions, exploiting the theory of Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHS). While the finite-sample coverage guarantees of these envelopes have been established, their consistency has not been analyzed so far. In this paper, we study this construction, here termed the Minimum-Norm Confidence Envelope (MiNCE) framework, and establish the strong uniform consistency of the resulting bands, both for noise-free and noisy observation models, under mild assumptions on the measurement noises. We further extend this formulation to the frequency domain, deriving nonasymptotic, simultaneous, strongly uniformly consistent confidence bands for the smoothed spectra. Numerical experiments in nonparametric regression and spectral estimation empirically confirm our theoretical results, illustrating the contraction of the confidence envelopes toward the target function as the sample size increases.

math.ST↗

arXiv2026

Mode Coverage in Normalizing Flow Boltzmann Generators via Log-Ratio Variation

Normalizing flow Boltzmann generators retain a tractable pushforward density, but training with forward KL depends on target samples that may be biased or omit modes. As a result, a flow can miss target mass while its observed importance weights give a high effective sample size. We introduce the log-ratio variation $\X_ω$, the mean absolute pairwise difference of the target-to-pushforward log-density ratio under a weighting measure $ω$, and use it to define KLXX, a new loss function. Two log-ratio variations are added to the forward KL (denoted by the two X's): one weighted by the target to improve accuracy, the other by a mixture of quench and temper samples with pushforward samples to search candidate modes. We derive the Fisher--Rao gradient flow of KLXX, where both variations contribute nonpositive dissipation, and a fixed-surrogate error bound for KLXX. We use KLXX in an adaptive-staging Boltzmann generator, with importance reweighting at every stage. We bound the sampling error of its inference scheme when the stage weights are essentially bounded, and prove it asymptotically unbiased in the sample size. In the numerical tests, KLXX improves mode coverage over forward KL. It also improves the generator's per-stage diagnostics against the loss that built the schedule. The observables the generator recovers are close to independent references. The log-ratio variations thus supply information that the forward KL loss usually omits.

stat.ML↗