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arXiv2026

Residual-augmented flow matching operators for probabilistic partial differential equations

Learning surrogate models for physical systems with latent uncertainty remains challenging in data-scarce regimes: deterministic neural operators fail to characterize uncertainty, while generative approaches require large ensembles of high-fidelity solution operator simulations and often sacrifice resolution generalizability. In this work, we propose a residual-augmented probabilistic operator learning framework that casts flow-matching-based generative modeling in infinite-dimensional function spaces while leveraging inexpensive low-fidelity solution operators as an inductive bias. Rather than learning the full high-fidelity stochastic solution operator directly, the proposed framework learns probabilistic residual operators that characterize the discrepancy between low- and high-fidelity solutions. By parameterizing the vector field in flow matching using neural operators conditioned on both the known system input and low-fidelity solution, the framework amortizes probabilistic inference across input conditions while enabling uncertainty-aware and resolution-generalizable predictions across spatial discretizations. Numerical experiments on stochastic advection, Burgers', and Darcy flow systems demonstrate that the residual-augmented formulation improves predictive accuracy under the same high-fidelity data budget, while the probabilistic operator learning formulation enables accurate characterization of uncertainty in low-data regimes compared to learning high-fidelity stochastic operators directly from data.

stat.CO↗
arXiv2026

A New Kernel Regularity Condition for Distributed Mirror Descent: Broader Coverage and Simpler Analysis

Existing convergence analyses of distributed optimization methods in non-Euclidean geometries typically rely on kernel assumptions: (i) global Lipschitz smoothness and (ii) bi-convexity of the associated Bregman divergence function. Unfortunately, these conditions are violated by nearly all kernels used in practice, leaving a huge theory-practice gap. This work closes this gap by developing a unified analytical tool that guarantees convergence under mild conditions. Specifically, we introduce Hessian relative uniform continuity (HRUC), a regularity satisfied by nearly all standard kernels. Importantly, HRUC is closed under concatenation, positive scaling, composition, and various kernel combinations. Leveraging the geometric structure induced by HRUC, we derive convergence guarantees for mirror-descent-based gradient tracking without imposing any restrictive assumptions. More broadly, our analysis techniques extend seamlessly to other decentralized optimization methods in genuinely non-Euclidean and non-Lipschitz settings.

math.OC↗
arXiv2026

Optimal Experiments for Partial Causal Effect Identification

Causal queries are often only partially identifiable from observational data, and experiments that could tighten the resulting bounds are typically costly. We study the problem of selecting, prior to observing experimental outcomes, a cost-constrained subset of experiments that maximally tightens bounds on a target query. We formalize this as the max-potency problem, where epistemic potency measures the worst-case reduction in bound width guaranteed by an experiment, and show that this problem is NP-hard via a reduction from 0-1 knapsack. Building on the polynomial-programming framework of Duarte et al. (2023), we give a general procedure for evaluating epistemic potency in discrete settings. To control the super-exponential search space, we introduce two graphical pruning criteria that depend only on the causal graph and the query: a novel path-interception rule that exploits district structure to certify zero potency in linear time, and an identifiability check based on the ID algorithm. On Erdos-Renyi random graphs and 11 bnlearn benchmark networks, the two criteria together prune 50-88% of candidate experiments on average without solving a single polynomial program. For the general subset search, we show that ID-pruned experiments are combinatorially inert, yielding a super-exponential reduction in the number of subsets evaluated. We close with an end-to-end demonstration on observational NHANES data, selecting optimal experiments for estimating the effect of physical activity on diabetes.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

Representation Costs in Data Science: Foundations and the Quasi-Banach Spaces of Deep Neural Networks

We develop a general framework for analyzing representation costs induced by parameter-space regularizers in data-fitting methods. For an arbitrary parametric method, we define its representation cost and native function space, prove existence, and identify conditions under which parameter-space and function-space problems have equal infimal values and minimizers transfer between them. This framework yields representer theorems and recovers classical formulations---including kernel methods and RKHSs, wavelets and Besov spaces, and shallow neural networks and variation spaces---as special cases. Our main new results concern depth-$L$ feedforward ReLU networks with weight-decay regularization. For these networks, we prove that the representation cost is a power of a quasi-seminorm and that, under suitable hypotheses, the native space is a quasi-Banach space with nonconvex unit ball when $L > 2$. These results identify a novel depth-dependent quasi-Banach geometry induced by weight decay.

math.FA↗
arXiv2026

PathGuide: Dynamic Classifier-Free Guidance via On-Policy Transport Alignment

While modern generative models excel at modeling complex data, precise inference-time control in conditional generation remains a critical challenge. Classifier-free guidance (CFG) is a primary mechanism for such control, yet it is typically treated as a static tuning parameter. In flow-based models, however, the guidance scale fundamentally dictates the velocity field and the resulting probability path, making guidance selection a dynamic path-optimization problem. We introduce PathGuide, a framework that reformulates scalar CFG selection as an on-policy transport problem. Leveraging the weak form of the continuity equation, we derive a selection criterion with a direct path-correctness interpretation: we prove that if the guided field is weakly equivalent to the exact conditional field along the generated rollout, the sampler's path coincides with the target conditional law. For scalar CFG, this criterion yields a strictly quadratic local objective with an efficient, closed-form selector for each solver interval. PathGuide enables optimal guidance scales to be computed and used online during generation or fitted offline as a reusable piecewise-constant schedule. We validate our method on low-resolution image manifolds and controlled settings across various continuous-time flow constructions, demonstrating that this transport-based selector improves path alignment and sample fidelity over both fixed and state-of-the-art adaptive guidance baselines.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

A convolutional framework for detecting event-driven dynamics in energy price series

This paper develops a general convolutional neural network (CNN) framework for detecting heterogeneous event-driven dynamics in univariate time series windows. We show that the induced CNN class exactly represents classifiers based on range, maximum drawup, maximum drawdown and slope change, and uniformly approximates realised volatility and autoregressive explosiveness on compact domains. We further establish error bounds for representative rules in finite samples and an oracle inequality for learning across them. Simulations show that the proposed model can match or outperform classifiers based on individual statistics as the training sample grows. In an application to six daily energy price series, a hierarchical CNN distinguishes event windows and event families. Applied without retraining to observations withheld after 20 February 2026, the fitted model identifies predominantly geopolitical dynamics in several oil and refined product series around the outbreak of the 2026 Iran war, while distinguishing a contemporaneous natural gas spike associated with weather.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

Diagonal Attenuation: A Finite-Sample Correction for PCA

Principal component analysis (PCA) can rotate away from its population target when a covariance matrix is estimated from limited data. We introduce diagonal attenuation, which preserves sample cross-covariances while reducing coordinatewise sample variances. The method is revealed exactly by averaging a linear full-output reconstruction loss over random input masks; studying the correction directly extends it beyond the range attainable by masking. We isolate the part of the random coupling between retained and omitted population directions that is contributed by sample-variance errors, and show how attenuation can reduce the resulting rotation. Under balanced marginal variances, we derive an explicit expected-risk theorem, uniform over the attenuation path for all sufficiently large finite samples, and obtain the asymptotically risk-minimizing strength. For general covariances, we characterize when attenuation leaves the population PCA subspace unchanged and give a risk theorem that also accounts for changing eigengaps and the population cost when the target moves. Simulations track this tradeoff from exact preservation back to PCA. Across local image patches, speech spectra, and smartphone acceleration, both mask-derived and direct attenuation improve PCA under two fitting-sample budgets, and one of them has the largest mean gain among seven methods in every data--budget cell. The full path selects strengths beyond the mask-derived boundary on $63\%$--$95\%$ of the subsamples.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

Online Learning with LLM Experts from Limited Feedback

We study adaptive routing of prompts to large language model (LLM) experts to maximize response quality in an online setting with limited feedback. We formulate it as a bandit problem with $K$ actions that represent experts and $d$ features that encode prompts, over a horizon of $T$ rounds. We propose algorithms that strategically select and observe rewards to minimize regret. In the full-information setting, we achieve a regret of $\tilde{O}(d T / \sqrt{m})$, while in the bandit setting we achieve $\tilde{O}(d T \sqrt{K / m})$, where $m \ll T$ is a budget on feedback. Our experiments show that we efficiently learn high-quality routing strategies across diverse LLMs from limited feedback.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Functional Attentive Interpretable Regression

In function-on-function regression, the coefficient surface $β(s,t)$ may exhibit complex support structure---from localized patches to global patterns such as disconnected regions, bands, or rings---where effect similarity does not align with Euclidean proximity. Projection-based methods that rely on fixed basis expansions can obscure such structure, while direct smoothing approaches risk oversmoothing the surface and its boundaries. We propose Functional Attentive Interpretable Regression (FAIR), which represents $β(s,t)$ directly through coordinate features and uses self-attention to learn effect-adaptive neighborhoods, enabling information sharing at both local and global scales. A scalar compression network maps these learned representations to the coefficient surface. Sparsity and smoothness penalties applied over these neighborhoods promote localized support with coherent boundaries. We establish a sieve equivalence to tensor-product spline spaces and derive convergence rates. Simulations and applications to oceanographic and hydrological data demonstrate that FAIR recovers support geometry more accurately than existing methods while achieving superior prediction, particularly under sparse sampling.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

Selective Posterior Margin Regularization for Forward-Corrected Classification

Learning with class-conditional label noise often relies on a transition model from latent clean classes to observed annotations. Forward correction embeds this transition in the likelihood, yet finite-sample networks may still memorize corrupted labels. The corrected likelihood also induces a reverse posterior over the clean classes that could explain each annotation. When its leading class differs from the annotation, the model and transition matrix provide evidence against that annotation, but the leading alternatives can remain nearly tied. We introduce Selective Posterior Margin Regularization (SPMR), which preserves the Forward objective and converts this disagreement into a graded update on the clean classifier. SPMR selects the leading reverse-posterior class, scales a detached pairwise margin by the separation between the two leading posterior classes, and assigns correspondingly little influence to diffuse conflicts. The gap factorizes into transition- adjusted pairwise separation and the posterior mass carried by the leading pair. The active margin follows the locally minimum-norm logit direction that enlarges the selected pairwise margin. Across five known-transition benchmarks, SPMR improves full-length Forward by 2.5-7.0 percentage points and remains 0.7-2.5 percentage points above Forward with Mixup and early stopping. Matched interventions support distinct gains from the posterior-space coefficient, transition-adjusted target, and pairwise action. The same design transfers to estimated transitions, human annotations, architectural changes, and stronger Forward recipes. The formulation uses latent-class evidence already available inside Forward correction without promoting every posterior conflict to a corrected label.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

On-the-go Forgetting without Explicit Unlearning via ERASE

Existing unlearning approaches typically rely on post hoc weight adaptation or distillation, leading to duplicated memory costs, degraded generalization, and limited scalability. In this work, we introduce ERASE, Erasure via Reconstructive Adversarial Signal Editing, a framework for on-the-go forgetting that suppresses the observable influence of private data without modifying model weights. ERASE leverages structured, class-conditioned input perturbations to induce selective forgetting during inference, eliminating the need for retraining, fine-tuning, or model copies. We rigorously characterize sufficient conditions when ERASE provably achieves functional forgetting of designated subclasses while preserving predictions across other subclasses within the same superclass. This analysis offers a principled foundation for inference-time forgetting under mild regularity assumptions. Across diverse architectures and benchmark datasets, ERASE maintains the best observed balance between forgetting efficacy, computational efficiency, and retention fidelity over recent unlearning-based methods. By reimagining data removal as forgetting without unlearning, our work establishes a scalable, regulation-aligned pathway for continual, privacy-conscious learning.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

The Role of Gradient Modification in Heavy-Tailed Nonconvex Stochastic Min-Max Optimization

Stochastic min-max optimization has attracted increasing attention due to its applications in modern machine learning, while existing theoretical studies mainly rely on the bounded variance assumption for stochastic gradients. Under heavy-tailed noise, where stochastic gradients only possess a finite $p$-th moment for $p\in(1,2]$, gradient clipping or normalization is commonly believed to be necessary to guarantee convergence. In this work, we revisit stochastic min-max optimization under heavy-tailed noise and provide a comprehensive theoretical study of stochastic gradient descent ascent (SGDA). We first show that vanilla SGDA, without any modification to its update rule, can converge under heavy-tailed noise in both nonconvex-strongly-concave (NC-SC) and nonconvex-concave (NC-C) settings, establishing the first convergence guarantees for SGDA in these regimes. Beyond unregularized problems, we further investigate regularized stochastic min-max optimization, where directly incorporating gradient normalization into proximal updates is nontrivial due to the incompatibility between normalization and proximal structures. We overcome this difficulty by developing new clipping-free algorithms, i.e., Stoc-TRGDAM and Stoc-TRGDmax, and they both can achieve the optimal dependence on the target accuracy without using gradient clipping.

math.OC↗
arXiv2026

Causal DAG Identification for Count Data via Poisson Thinning Structural Equation Models

Count-valued variables arise in many scientific and applied settings, yet explicit structural models that allow full identification of causal DAGs from observational data remain limited. The Poisson branching structural causal model (PB-SCM) provides a count-valued analogue of linear structural equation models using binomial thinning and independent Poisson exogenous variables, but its causal DAG is generally only partially identifiable. Building on this framework, we propose the Poisson thinning structural equation model (PT-SEM), which replaces binomial thinning in PB-SCM with Poisson thinning and allows node-wise exogenous distributions from diverse count-distribution families. Under node-wise regularity conditions, we establish identifiability of the causal DAG, the thinning coefficients, and the node-wise exogenous distributions. The same identification analysis extends to binomial thinning, yielding full identifiability whenever every nonsink has non-Poisson exogenous noise. We further develop a structure learning algorithm that optimizes, via dynamic programming, a BIC score based on local likelihoods evaluated at plug-in moment estimates, and establish its consistency for DAG selection. Simulations demonstrate favorable performance in DAG recovery and thinning-coefficient estimation, and a real-data application illustrates the practical utility of PT-SEM.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2026

Recovering linear images of sparse signals from indirect observations

In this paper, we develop and analyze techniques for recovering a linear image $Bx$ of an unknown signal $x$ from indirect noisy observation $ω=Ax+ξ$. It is {\em a priori} known that $x\in \cX$, a given convex compact set, and that $x$ is $s$-sparse---has at most $s$ nonvanishing entries. The proposed estimates belong to a large family of recovery routines by $\ell_1$-minimization. However, unlike the classical result describing performance of such estimates, we do not make any special (and hard to check) assumptions about the sensing matrix $A$ such as nullspace or Restricted Isometry condition and the like. As a consequence, parameters of the estimates and the upper bounds on their risks are not available in a closed analytic form, but are delivered instead by efficient computation as solutions to explicit convex optimization problems.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

Robust conditional dimension reduction for dissimilarity data

Conditional dimension reduction (cDR) learns low-dimensional latent coordinates while accounting for observed covariates that represent known sources of variation in the data. Conditional Multidimensional Scaling (cMDS) is a cDR technique that works directly with dissimilarity data. Its standard squared-stress formulation, however, is sensitive to contaminated dissimilarity, since outliers can dominate the objective and distort the learned configuration. We proposed Robust Conditional Multidimensional Scaling (rcMDS) by replacing the squared-stress criterion with a Fair M-estimation objective. We developed a reweighted conditional SMACOF algorithm to optimize this objective. The proposed algorithm admits computationally tractable updates, and its stabilized objective values decrease monotonically and converge to a finite limit. Experiments on synthetic and real data show that the pro

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

DUA-D2C: Dynamic Uncertainty Aware Method for Overfitting Remediation in Deep Learning

Overfitting remains a significant challenge in deep learning, often arising from data outliers, noise, and limited training data. To address this, we previously proposed the Divide2Conquer (D2C) method, which partitions training data into multiple subsets and trains identical models independently on each. This strategy enables learning more consistent patterns while minimizing the influence of individual outliers and noise. D2C's standard aggregation typically treats all subset models equally or based on fixed heuristics (like data size), potentially underutilizing information about their varying generalization capabilities. Building upon this foundation, we introduce Dynamic Uncertainty-Aware Divide2Conquer (DUA-D2C), an advanced technique that refines the aggregation process. DUA-D2C dynamically weights the contributions of subset models based on their performance on a shared validation set, employing a novel composite score of accuracy and normalized prediction entropy. This intelligent aggregation allows the central model to preferentially learn from subsets yielding more generalizable and confident edge models, thereby more effectively combating overfitting. In this work, we provide a rigorous theoretical justification for this approach, analytically demonstrating how dynamic parameter fusion reduces model variance. Empirical evaluations on benchmark datasets spanning image, audio, and text domains demonstrate that DUA-D2C significantly improves generalization. Our analysis includes evaluations of decision boundaries, loss curves, and ablation studies, highlighting that DUA-D2C provides additive performance gains even when applied on top of standard regularizers like Dropout. This study establishes it as a theoretically grounded and effective approach to combating overfitting in deep learning. Our code is publicly available at: https://github.com/Saiful185/DUAD2C.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

DDPM Score Matching and Distribution Learning

Score estimation is the backbone of score-based generative models (SGMs), especially denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs). A key result in this area shows that with accurate score estimates, SGMs can efficiently generate samples from any realistic data distribution (Chen et al., ICLR'23; Lee et al., ALT'23). This distribution learning result, where the learned distribution is implicitly that of the sampler's output, does not explain how score estimation relates to classical tasks of parameter and density estimation. This paper introduces a framework that reduces score estimation to these two tasks, with various implications for statistical and computational learning theory: Parameter Estimation: Koehler et al. (ICLR'23) demonstrate that a score-matching variant is statistically inefficient for the parametric estimation of multimodal densities common in practice. In contrast, we show that under mild conditions, denoising score-matching in DDPMs is asymptotically efficient. Density Estimation: By linking generation to score estimation, we lift existing score estimation guarantees to $(ε,δ)$-PAC density estimation, i.e., a function approximating the target log-density within $ε$ on all but a $δ$-fraction of the space. We provide (i) minimax rates for density estimation over Hölder classes and (ii) a quasi-polynomial PAC density estimation algorithm for the classical Gaussian location mixture model, building on and addressing an open problem from Gatmiry et al. (COLT'26). Lower Bounds for Score Estimation: Our framework offers the first principled method to prove computational lower bounds for score estimation across general distributions. As an application, we establish cryptographic lower bounds for score estimation in general Gaussian mixture models, conceptually recovering Song's (NeurIPS'24) result and advancing his key open problem.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

GyroSwin: 5D Surrogates for Gyrokinetic Plasma Turbulence Simulations

Nuclear fusion plays a pivotal role in the quest for reliable and sustainable energy production. A major roadblock to viable fusion power is understanding plasma turbulence, which significantly impairs plasma confinement, and is vital for next-generation reactor design. Plasma turbulence is governed by the nonlinear gyrokinetic equation, which evolves a 5D distribution function over time. Due to its high computational cost, reduced-order models are often employed in practice to approximate turbulent transport of energy. However, they omit nonlinear effects unique to the full 5D dynamics. To tackle this, we introduce GyroSwin, the first scalable 5D neural surrogate that can model 5D nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations, thereby capturing the physical phenomena neglected by reduced models, while providing accurate estimates of turbulent heat transport. GyroSwin (i) extends hierarchical Vision Transformers to 5D, (ii) introduces cross-attention and integration modules for latent 3D$\leftrightarrow$5D interactions between electrostatic potential fields and the distribution function, and (iii) performs channelwise mode separation inspired by nonlinear physics. We demonstrate that GyroSwin outperforms widely used reduced numerics on heat flux prediction, captures the turbulent energy cascade, and reduces the cost of fully resolved nonlinear gyrokinetics by three orders of magnitude while remaining physically verifiable. GyroSwin shows promising scaling laws, tested up to one billion parameters, paving the way for scalable neural surrogates for gyrokinetic simulations of plasma turbulence.

physics.plasm-ph↗