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arXiv2010

Citation entropy and research impact estimation

A new indicator, a real valued $s$-index, is suggested to characterize a quality and impact of the scientific research output. It is expected to be at least as useful as the notorious $h$-index, at the same time avoiding some its obvious drawbacks. However, surprisingly, the $h$-index is found to be quite a good indicator for majority of real-life citation data with their alleged Zipfian behaviour for which these drawbacks do not show up. The style of the paper was chosen deliberately somewhat frivolous to indicate that any attempt to characterize the scientific output of a researcher by just one number always has an element of a grotesque game in it and should not be taken too seriously. I hope this frivolous style will be perceived as a funny decoration only.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2009

Knowledge transfer in a tourism destination: the effects of a network structure

Tourism destinations have a necessity to innovate to remain competitive in an increasingly global environment. A pre-requisite for innovation is the understanding of how destinations source, share and use knowledge. This conceptual paper examines the nature of networks and how their analysis can shed light upon the processes of knowledge sharing in destinations as they strive to innovate. The paper conceptualizes destinations as networks of connected organizations, both public and private, each of which can be considered as a destination stakeholder. In network theory they represent the nodes within the system. The paper shows how epidemic diffusion models can act as an analogy for knowledge communication and transfer within a destination network. These models can be combined with other approaches to network analysis to shed light on how destination networks operate, and how they can be optimized with policy intervention to deliver innovative and competitive destinations. The paper closes with a practical tourism example taken from the Italian destination of Elba. Using numerical simulations the case demonstrates how the Elba network can be optimized. Overall this paper demonstrates the considerable utility of network analysis for tourism in delivering destination competitiveness.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2009

Unravelling the size distribution of social groups with information theory on complex networks

The minimization of Fisher's information (MFI) approach of Frieden et al. [Phys. Rev. E {\bf 60} 48 (1999)] is applied to the study of size distributions in social groups on the basis of a recently established analogy between scale invariant systems and classical gases [arXiv:0908.0504]. Going beyond the ideal gas scenario is seen to be tantamount to simulating the interactions taking place in a network's competitive cluster growth process. We find a scaling rule that allows to classify the final cluster-size distributions using only one parameter that we call the competitiveness. Empirical city-size distributions and electoral results can be thus reproduced and classified according to this competitiveness, which also allows to correctly predict well-established assessments such as the "six-degrees of separation", which is shown here to be a direct consequence of the maximum number of stable social relationships that one person can maintain, known as Dunbar's number. Finally, we show that scaled city-size distributions of large countries follow the same universal distribution.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2010

Class formation in a social network with asset exchange

We study two kinds of economic exchange, additive and multiplicative, in a system of N agents. The work is divided in two parts, in the first one, the agents are free to interact with each other. The system evolves to a Boltzmann-Gibbs distribution with additive exchange and condenses with a multiplicative one. If bankruptcy is introduced, both types of exchange lead to condensation. Condensation times have been studied. In the second part, the agents are placed in a social network. We analyze the behavior of wealth distributions in time, and the formation of economic classes was observed for certain values of network connectivity.

q-fin.TR↗
arXiv2010

Dynamical Clustering of Exchange Rates

We use techniques from network science to study correlations in the foreign exchange (FX) market over the period 1991--2008. We consider an FX market network in which each node represents an exchange rate and each weighted edge represents a time-dependent correlation between the rates. To provide insights into the clustering of the exchange rate time series, we investigate dynamic communities in the network. We show that there is a relationship between an exchange rate's functional role within the market and its position within its community and use a node-centric community analysis to track the time dynamics of this role. This reveals which exchange rates dominate the market at particular times and also identifies exchange rates that experienced significant changes in market role. We also use the community dynamics to uncover major structural changes that occurred in the FX market. Our techniques are general and will be similarly useful for investigating correlations in other markets.

q-fin.TR↗
arXiv2010

Macroscopic and microscopic statistical properties observed in blog entries

We observe the statistical properties of blogs that are expected to reflect social human interaction. Firstly, we introduce a basic normalization preprocess that enables us to evaluate the genuine word frequency in blogs that are independent of external factors such as spam blogs, server-breakdowns, increase in the population of bloggers, and periodic weekly behaviors. After this process, we can confirm that small frequency words clearly follow an independent Poisson process as theoretically expected. Secondly, we focus on each blogger's basic behaviors. It is found that there are two kinds of behaviors of bloggers. Further, Zipf's law on word frequency is confirmed to be universally independent of individual activity types.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2009

Distance Is Not Dead: Social Interaction and Geographical Distance in the Internet Era

The Internet revolution has made long-distance communication dramatically faster, easier, and cheaper than ever before. This, it has been argued, has decreased the importance of geographic proximity in social interactions, transforming our world into a global village with a borderless society. We argue for the opposite: while technology has undoubtedly increased the overall level of communication, this increase has been most pronounced for local social ties. We show that the volume of electronic communications is inversely proportional to geographic distance, following a Power Law. We directly study the importance of physical proximity in social interactions by analyzing the spatial dissemination of new baby names. Counter-intuitively, and in line with the above argument, the importance of geographic proximity has dramatically increased with the internet revolution.

cs.CY↗
arXiv2009

How opinions are received by online communities: A case study on Amazon.com helpfulness votes

There are many on-line settings in which users publicly express opinions. A number of these offer mechanisms for other users to evaluate these opinions; a canonical example is Amazon.com, where reviews come with annotations like "26 of 32 people found the following review helpful." Opinion evaluation appears in many off-line settings as well, including market research and political campaigns. Reasoning about the evaluation of an opinion is fundamentally different from reasoning about the opinion itself: rather than asking, "What did Y think of X?", we are asking, "What did Z think of Y's opinion of X?" Here we develop a framework for analyzing and modeling opinion evaluation, using a large-scale collection of Amazon book reviews as a dataset. We find that the perceived helpfulness of a review depends not just on its content but also but also in subtle ways on how the expressed evaluation relates to other evaluations of the same product. As part of our approach, we develop novel methods that take advantage of the phenomenon of review "plagiarism" to control for the effects of text in opinion evaluation, and we provide a simple and natural mathematical model consistent with our findings. Our analysis also allows us to distinguish among the predictions of competing theories from sociology and social psychology, and to discover unexpected differences in the collective opinion-evaluation behavior of user populations from different countries.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2009

Stratospheric Albedo Modification by Aerosol Injection

This paper reviews and develops the proposal, widely discussed but not examined in detail, to use stratospheric aerosols to increase the Earth's albedo to Solar radiation in order to control climate change. The potential of this method has been demonstrated by the "natural experiments" of volcanic injection of sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere that led to subsequent observed global cooling. I consider several hygroscopic oxides as possible aerosol materials in addition to oxides of sulfur. Aerosol chemistry, dispersion and transport have been the subject of little study and are not understood, representing a significant scientific risk. Even the optimal altitude of injection and aerosol size distribution are poorly known. Past attention focused on guns and airplanes as means of lofting aerosols or their chemical precursors, but large sounding rockets are cheap, energetically efficient, can be designed to inject aerosols at any required altitude, and involve little technical risk. Sophisticated, mass-optimized "engineered" particles have been proposed as possible aerosols, but the formidable problems of their production in quantity, lofting and dispersion have not been addressed.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2013

The Demystification of Emergent Behavior

Emergent behavior that appears at a given level of organization may be characterized as arising from an organizationally lower level in such a way that it transcends a mere increase in the behavioral degree of complexity. It is therefore to be distinguished from systems exhibiting chaotic behavior, for example, which are deterministic but unpredictable because of an exponential dependence on initial conditions. In emergent phenomena, higher-levels of organization are not determined by lower-levels of organization; or, more colloquially, emergent behavior is often said to be "greater than the sum of the parts". The concept plays an especially important but contentious role in the biological sciences. This essay is intended to demystify at least some aspects of the mystery of emergence.

physics.gen-ph↗
arXiv2009

Effective leadership in competition

Among natural biological flocks/swarms or even mass social activities, when the collective behaviors of the followers has been dominated by the moving direction or opinion of one leader group, it seems very difficult for later-coming leaders to reverse the orientation of the mass followers, especially when they are in quantitative minority. This Letter reports a counter-intuitive phenomenon, Following the Later-coming Minority, provided that the late-comers obey a favorable distribution pattern which enables them to spread their influence to as many followers as possible in a given time and to accumulate enough power to govern these followers. We introduce a discriminant index to quantify the whole group's orientation under competing leadership, which helps to design an economic way for the minority later-coming leaders to defeat the dominating majority leaders solely by optimizing their distribution pattern. Our investigation provides new insights into the effective leadership in biological systems, with meaningful implication to social and industrial applications.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2011

Quantum Reading of Digital Memories

We consider a basic model of digital memory where each cell is composed of a reflecting medium with two possible reflectivities. By fixing the mean number of photons irradiated over each memory cell, we show that a non-classical source of light can retrieve more information than any classical source. This improvement is shown in the regime of few photons and high reflectivities, where the gain of information can be surprising. As a result, the use of quantum light can have non-trivial applications in the technology of digital memories, such as optical disks and barcodes.

quant-ph↗
arXiv2011

Party Polarization in Congress: A Network Science Approach

We measure polarization in the United States Congress using the network science concept of modularity. Modularity provides a conceptually-clear measure of polarization that reveals both the number of relevant groups and the strength of inter-group divisions without making restrictive assumptions about the structure of the party system or the shape of legislator utilities. We show that party influence on Congressional blocs varies widely throughout history, and that existing measures underestimate polarization in periods with weak party structures. We demonstrate that modularity is a significant predictor of changes in majority party and that turnover is more prevalent at medium levels of modularity. We show that two variables related to modularity, called `divisiveness' and `solidarity,' are significant predictors of reelection success for individual House members. Our results suggest that modularity can serve as an early warning of changing group dynamics, which are reflected only later by changes in party labels.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2009

Dragon-Kings, Black Swans and the Prediction of Crises

We develop the concept of ``dragon-kings'' corresponding to meaningful outliers, which are found to coexist with power laws in the distributions of event sizes under a broad range of conditions in a large variety of systems. These dragon-kings reveal the existence of mechanisms of self-organization that are not apparent otherwise from the distribution of their smaller siblings. We present a generic phase diagram to explain the generation of dragon-kings and document their presence in six different examples (distribution of city sizes, distribution of acoustic emissions associated with material failure, distribution of velocity increments in hydrodynamic turbulence, distribution of financial drawdowns, distribution of the energies of epileptic seizures in humans and in model animals, distribution of the earthquake energies). We emphasize the importance of understanding dragon-kings as being often associated with a neighborhood of what can be called equivalently a phase transition, a bifurcation, a catastrophe (in the sense of Rene Thom), or a tipping point. The presence of a phase transition is crucial to learn how to diagnose in advance the symptoms associated with a coming dragon-king. Several examples of predictions using the derived log-periodic power law method are discussed, including material failure predictions and the forecasts of the end of financial bubbles.

physics.data-an↗
arXiv2009

Dynamic Phase Structures in the Evolution of Conventions

This paper describes an agent-based model of a finite group of agents in a single population who each choose which convention to advocate, and which convention to practice. Influences or dependencies in agents choice exists in the form of guru effects and what others practice. With payoffs being dependent on cumulative rewards or actual standings in society, we illustrate the evolutionary dynamics of the phase structure of each group in the population via simulations.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2009

On the Stability of Community Detection Algorithms on Longitudinal Citation Data

There are fundamental differences between citation networks and other classes of graphs. In particular, given that citation networks are directed and acyclic, methods developed primarily for use with undirected social network data may face obstacles. This is particularly true for the dynamic development of community structure in citation networks. Namely, it is neither clear when it is appropriate to employ existing community detection approaches nor is it clear how to choose among existing approaches. Using simulated data, we attempt to clarify the conditions under which one should use existing methods and which of these algorithms is appropriate in a given context. We hope this paper will serve as both a useful guidepost and an encouragement to those interested in the development of more targeted approaches for use with longitudinal citation data.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2009

Complex networks: A mixture of power-law and Weibull distributions

Complex networks have recently aroused a lot of interest. However, network edges are considered to be the same in almost all these studies. In this paper, we present a simple classification method, which divides the edges of undirected, unweighted networks into two types: p2c and p2p. The p2c edge represents a hierarchical relationship between two nodes, while the p2p edge represents an equal relationship between two nodes. It is surprising and unexpected that for many real-world networks from a wide variety of domains (including computer science, transportation, biology, engineering and social science etc), the p2c degree distribution follows a power law more strictly than the total degree distribution, while the p2p degree distribution follows the Weibull distribution very well. Thus, the total degree distribution can be seen as a mixture of power-law and Weibull distributions. More surprisingly, it is found that in many cases, the total degree distribution can be better described by the Weibull distribution, rather than a power law as previously suggested. By comparing two topology models, we think that the origin of the Weibull distribution in complex networks might be a mixture of both preferential and random attachments when networks evolve.

cs.NI↗