SEARCH · Searcharxiv

Results for “physics.ao-ph”

Search indexed arXiv papers on artificial intelligence, large language models, computer vision and robotics. Read source abstracts and follow links to arXiv.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 271 records · Page 15Linked to original sources

arXiv2012

Cloud microphysical effects of turbulent mixing and entrainment

Turbulent mixing and entrainment at the boundary of a cloud is studied by means of direct numerical simulations that couple the Eulerian description of the turbulent velocity and water vapor fields with a Lagrangian ensemble of cloud water droplets that can grow and shrink by condensation and evaporation, respectively. The focus is on detailed analysis of the relaxation process of the droplet ensemble during the entrainment of subsaturated air, in particular the dependence on turbulence time scales, droplet number density, initial droplet radius and particle inertia. We find that the droplet evolution during the entrainment process is captured best by a phase relaxation time that is based on the droplet number density with respect to the entire simulation domain and the initial droplet radius. Even under conditions favoring homogeneous mixing, the probability density function of supersaturation at droplet locations exhibits initially strong negative skewness, consistent with droplets near the cloud boundary being suddenly mixed into clear air, but rapidly approaches a narrower, symmetric shape. The droplet size distribution, which is initialized as perfectly monodisperse, broadens and also becomes somewhat negatively skewed. Particle inertia and gravitational settling lead to a more rapid initial evaporation, but ultimately only to slight depletion of both tails of the droplet size distribution. The Reynolds number dependence of the mixing process remained weak over the parameter range studied, most probably due to the fact that the inhomogeneous mixing regime could not be fully accessed when phase relaxation times based on global number density are considered.

physics.flu-dyn↗

arXiv2018

Seasonal forecasts of the summer 2016 Yangtze River basin rainfall

The Yangtze River has been subject to heavy flooding throughout history, and in recent times severe floods such as those in 1998 have resulted in heavy loss of life and livelihoods. Dams along the river help to manage flood waters, and are important sources of electricity for the region. Being able to forecast high-impact events at long lead times therefore has enormous potential benefit. Recent improvements in seasonal forecasting mean that dynamical climate models can start to be used directly for operational services. The teleconnection from El Niño to Yangtze River basin rainfall meant that the strong El Niño in winter 2015/2016 provided a valuable opportunity to test the application of a dynamical forecast system. This paper therefore presents a case study of a real time seasonal forecast for the Yangtze River basin, building on previous work demonstrating the retrospective skill of such a forecast. A simple forecasting methodology is presented, in which the forecast probabilities are derived from the historical relationship between hindcast and observations. Its performance for 2016 is discussed. The heavy rainfall in the May-June-July period was correctly forecast well in advance. August saw anomalously low rainfall, and the forecasts for the June-July-August period correctly showed closer to average levels. The forecasts contributed to the confidence of decision-makers across the Yangtze River basin. Trials of climate services such as this help to promote appropriate use of seasonal forecasts, and highlight areas for future improvements.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2012

A fractal climate response function can simulate global average temperature trends of the modern era and the past millennium

A climate response function is introduced that consists of six exponential (low-pass) filters with weights depending as a power law on their e-folding times. The response of this two-parameter function to the combined forcings of solar irradiance, greenhouse gases, and SO2-related aerosols is fitted simultaneously to reconstructed temperatures of the past millennium, the response to solar cycles, the response to the 1991 Pinatubo volcanic eruption, and the modern 1850-2010 temperature trend. Assuming strong long-term modulation of solar irradiance, the quite adequate fit produces a climate response function with a millennium-scale response to doubled CO2 concentration of 2.0 +- 0.3 K (mean +- standard error), of which about 50% is realized with e-folding times of 0.5 and 2 years, about 30% with e-folding times of 8 and 32 years, and about 20% with e-folding times of 128 and 512 years. The transient climate response (response after 70 years of 1% yearly rise of CO2 concentration) is 1.5 +- 0.2 K. The temperature rise from 1820-1950 can be attributed for about 70% to increased solar irradiance, while the temperature changes after 1950 are almost completely produced by the interplay of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols. The SO2-related forcing produces a small temperature drop in the years 1950-1970 and an inflection of the temperature curve around the year 2000. Fitting with a tenfold smaller modulation of solar irradiance produces a less adequate fit with millennium-scale and transient climate responses of 2.5 +- 0.4 K and 1.9 +- 0.3 K, respectively.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2013

Dynamics between order and chaos in conceptual models of glacial cycles

The dynamics of glacial cycles is studied in terms of the dynamical systems theory. We explore the dependence of the climate state on the phase of astronomical forcing by examining five conceptual models of glacial cycles proposed in the literature. The models can be expressed as quasiperiodically forced dynamical systems. It is shown that four of them exhibit a strange nonchaotic attractor (SNA), which is an intermediate regime between quasiperiodicity and chaos. Then, the dependence of the climate state on the phase of astronomical forcing is not given by smooth relations, but constitutes a geometrically strange set. Our result suggests that the dynamics of SNA is a candidate for the dynamics of glacial cycles, in addition to the well-known dynamics of quasiperiodicity and chaos.

nlin.CD↗

arXiv2014

Analysis of rainfall seasonality from observations and climate models

Two new indicators of rainfall seasonality based on information entropy, the relative entropy (RE) and the dimensionless seasonality index (DSI), together with the mean annual rainfall, are evaluated on a global scale for recently updated precipitation gridded datasets and for historical simulations from coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. The RE provides a measure of the number of wet months and, for precipitation regimes featuring one maximum in the monthly rain distribution, it is related to the duration of the wet season. The DSI combines the rainfall intensity with its degree of seasonality and it is an indicator of the extent of the global monsoon region. We show that the RE and the DSI are fairly independent of the time resolution of the precipitation data, thereby allowing objective metrics for model intercomparison and ranking. Regions with different precipitation regimes are classified and characterized in terms of RE and DSI. Comparison of different land observational datasets reveals substantial difference in their local representation of seasonality. It is shown that two-dimensional maps of RE provide an easy way to compare rainfall seasonality from various datasets and to determine areas of interest. CMIP5 models consistently overestimate the RE over tropical Latin America and underestimate it in Western Africa and East Asia. It is demonstrated that positive RE biases in a GCM are associated with simulated monthly precipitation fractions which are too large during the wet months and too small in the months preceding the wet season; negative biases are instead due to an excess of rainfall during the dry months.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2024

Polar Jet Stream Fluctuations in an Energy Balance Model

We investigate the effect of increased longwave radiative forcing (a proxy for increased greenhouse gas concentration) on the zonally averaged location of the eddy-driven jet stream in a latitude dependent, two-layer Energy Balance Model. The model includes separate terms for atmospheric and surface albedos, and takes into account reflections of shortwave radiation between the surface and atmospheric layers. We introduce the notion of a cloud factor function, which depends on temperature gradients, to simulate the eddy-driven jet. An increase in longwave radiative forcing initially results in a poleward movement of the jet stream's mean latitude, but as the forcing increases, the location of the jet stream becomes quasi-periodic and its mean location moves equatorward.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2013

Multifractality due to long-range correlation in the L-band ionospheric scintillation S4 index time series

The earth's ionosphere is well recognized as a dynamical system and non-linearly coupled with the magnetosphere above and natural atmosphere below.The shape and time variability of the ionosphere indeed shows chaos, pattern formation, random behavior and self-organization. The present paper studies the propriety of Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA) technique for the ionospheric scintillation index time series. MF-DFA is used to identify the scaling behavior of the ionospheric scintillation time-series data of two different nature.The obtained results show the robustness and the relevancy of the MF-DFA technique for the ionospheric scintillation index time series. The comparison of the MF-DFA results of original data to those of shuffled and surrogate series shows that the multifractal nature of considered time series is almost due to long-range correlations. Subsequently, the Hurst exponents derived from two parallel methods namely Re-scaled range analysis (R/S) and Auto Correlation Function (ACF) are also suggesting the presence of long range correlation. The presented results in this work may be of assistance for future modeling and simulation studies.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2013

A New Sensitivity Analysis and Solution Method for Scintillometer Measurements of Area-Averaged Turbulent Fluxes

Scintillometer measurements of the turbulence inner-scale length $l_o$ and refractive index structure function $C_n^2$ allow for the retrieval of large-scale area-averaged turbulent fluxes in the atmospheric surface layer. This retrieval involves the solution of the non-linear set of equations defined by the Monin-Obukhov similarity hypothesis. A new method that uses an analytic solution to the set of equations is presented, which leads to a stable and efficient numerical method of computation that has the potential of eliminating computational error. Mathematical expressions are derived that map out the sensitivity of the turbulent flux measurements to uncertainties in source measurements such as $l_o$. These sensitivity functions differ from results in the previous literature; the reasons for the differences are explored.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2022

Nonlinear evolution of internal gravity waves in the Earth's ionosphere: Analytical and numerical approach

The nonlinear propagation of internal gravity waves in the weakly ionized, incompressible Earth's ionosphere is studied using the fluid theory approach. Previous theory in the literature is advanced by the effects of the terrestrial inhomogeneous magnetic field embedded in weakly ionized ionospheric layers ranging in altitude from about $50$ to $500$ km. It is shown that the ionospheric conducting fluids can support the formation of solitary dipolar vortices (or modons). Both analytical and numerical solutions of the latter are obtained and analyzed. It is found that in absence of the Pedersen conductivity, different vortex structures with different space localization can be formed which can move with the supersonic velocity without any energy loss. However, its presence can cause the amplitude of the solitary vortices to decay with time and the vortex structure can completely disappear owing to the energy loss. Such energy loss can be delayed, i.e., the vortex structure can prevail for relatively a longer time if the nonlinear effects associated with either the stream function or the density variation become significantly higher than the dissipation due to the Pedersen conductivity. The main characteristic dynamic parameters are also defined which are in good correlation with the existing experimental data.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2014

Origin of atmospheric aerosols at the Pierre Auger Observatory using studies of air mass trajectories in South America

The Pierre Auger Observatory is making significant contributions towards understanding the nature and origin of ultra-high energy cosmic rays. One of its main challenges is the monitoring of the atmosphere, both in terms of its state variables and its optical properties. The aim of this work is to analyze aerosol optical depth $τ_{\rm a}(z)$ values measured from 2004 to 2012 at the observatory, which is located in a remote and relatively unstudied area of the Pampa Amarilla, Argentina. The aerosol optical depth is in average quite low - annual mean $τ_{\rm a}(3.5~{\rm km})\sim 0.04$ - and shows a seasonal trend with a winter minimum - $τ_{\rm a}(3.5~{\rm km})\sim 0.03$ -, and a summer maximum - $τ_{\rm a}(3.5~{\rm km})\sim 0.06$ -, and an unexpected increase from August to September - $τ_{\rm a}(3.5~{\rm km})\sim 0.055$). We computed backward trajectories for the years 2005 to 2012 to interpret the air mass origin. Winter nights with low aerosol concentrations show air masses originating from the Pacific Ocean. Average concentrations are affected by continental sources (wind-blown dust and urban pollution), while the peak observed in September and October could be linked to biomass burning in the northern part of Argentina or air pollution coming from surrounding urban areas.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2014

EOF analysis of a time series with application to tsunami detection

Fragments of deep-ocean tidal records up to 3 days long belong to the same functional sub-space, regardless of the record's origin. The tidal sub-space basis can be derived via Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of a tidal record of a single buoy. Decomposition of a tsunami buoy record in a functional space of tidal EOFs presents an efficient tool for a short-term tidal forecast, as well as for an accurate tidal removal (Tolkova, E. 2009. Principal Component Analysis of Tsunami Buoy Record: Tide Prediction and Removal. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans, 46 (1-4): 62-82.) EOF analysis of a time series, however, assumes that the time series represents a stationary (in the weak sense) process. In the present work, a modification of one-dimensional EOF formalism not restricted to stationary processes is introduced. With this modification, the EOF-based de-tiding/forecasting technique can be interpreted in terms of a signal passage through a filter bank, which is unique for the sub-space spanned by the EOFs. This interpretation helps to identify a harmonic content of a continuous process whose fragments are decomposed by given EOFs. In particular, seven EOFs and a constant function are proved to decompose 1-day-long tidal fragments at any location. Filtering by projection into a reduced sub-space of the above EOFs is capable of separating a tsunami wave from a tidal component within a few millimeter accuracy from the first minutes of the tsunami appearance on a tsunami buoy record, and is reliable in the presence of data gaps. EOFs with ~3-day duration (a reciprocal of either tidal band width) allow short-term (24.75 hour in advance) tidal predictions using the inherent structure of a tidal signal. The predictions do not require any a priori knowledge of tidal processes at a particular location, except for recent 49.5 hour long recordings at the location.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2013

Discussion on climate oscillations: CMIP5 general circulation models versus a semi empirical harmonic model based on astronomical cycles

Power spectra of global surface temperature (GST) records reveal major periodicities at about 9.1, 10-11, 19-22 and 59-62 years. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs), to be used in the IPCC (2013), are analyzed and found not able to reconstruct this variability. From 2000 to 2013.5 a GST plateau is observed while the GCMs predicted a warming rate of about 2 K/century. In contrast, the hypothesis that the climate is regulated by specific natural oscillations more accurately fits the GST records at multiple time scales. The climate sensitivity to CO2 doubling should be reduced by half, e.g. from the IPCC-2007 2.0-4.5 K range to 1.0-2.3 K with 1.5 C median. Also modern paleoclimatic temperature reconstructions yield the same conclusion. The observed natural oscillations could be driven by astronomical forcings. Herein I propose a semi empirical climate model made of six specific astronomical oscillations as constructors of the natural climate variability spanning from the decadal to the millennial scales plus a 50% attenuated radiative warming component deduced from the GCM mean simulation as a measure of the anthropogenic and volcano contributions to climatic changes. The semi empirical model reconstructs the 1850-2013 GST patterns significantly better than any CMIP5 GCM simulation. The model projects a possible 2000-2100 average warming ranging from about 0.3 C to 1.8 C that is significantly below the original CMIP5 GCM ensemble mean range (1 K to 4 K).

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2014

The dynamics of technology diffusion and the impacts of climate policy instruments in the decarbonisation of the global electricity sector

This paper presents an analysis of climate policy instruments for the decarbonisation of the global electricity sector in a non-equilibrium economic and technology diffusion perspective. Energy markets are driven by innovation, path-dependent technology choices and diffusion. However, conventional optimisation models lack detail on these aspects and have limited ability to address the effectiveness of policy interventions because they do not represent decision-making. As a result, known effects of technology lock-ins are liable to be underestimated. In contrast, our approach places investor decision-making at the core of the analysis and investigates how it drives the diffusion of low-carbon technology in a highly disaggregated, hybrid, global macroeconometric model, FTT:Power-E3MG. Ten scenarios to 2050 of the electricity sector in 21 regions exploring combinations of electricity policy instruments are analysed, including their climate impacts. We show that in a diffusion and path-dependent perspective, the impact of combinations of policies does not correspond to the sum of impacts of individual instruments: synergies exist between policy tools. We argue that the carbon price required to break the current fossil technology lock-in can be much lower when combined with other policies, and that a 90% decarbonisation of the electricity sector by 2050 is affordable without early scrapping.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2013

Cosmogenic nuclide enhancement via deposition from long-period comets as a test of the Younger Dryas impact hypothesis

We explore the idea that detectable excursions in 26Al may arise from direct deposition by any bolide, and excursions in 14C and 10Be abundances in the atmosphere may result from long-period comet impacts. This is very different from the usual processes of production by cosmic rays within Earths atmosphere. Long-period comets experience greatly increased cosmic ray flux beyond the protection of the suns magnetic field. We report the computed amount of 14C, 10Be, and 26Al present on long-period comets as a function of comet mass. We find that the amount of nuclide mass on large long-period comets entering the Earths atmosphere may be sufficient for creating anomalies in the records of 14C and 10Be from past impacts. In particular, the estimated mass of the proposed Younger Dryas comet is consistent with its having deposited sufficient isotopes to account for recorded 14C and 10Be increases at that time. The 26Al/10Be ratio is much larger in extraterrestrial objects than in the atmosphere, and so, we note that measuring this ratio in ice cores is a suitable definitive test for the Younger Dryas impact hypothesis, even if the hypothetical bolide is not a long-period comet and/or did not contribute to the 14C and 10Be increases.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2013

Impact of storm risk on Faustmann rotation

Global warming may induce in Western Europe an increase in storms. Hence the forest managers will have to take into account the risk increase. We study the impact of storm risk at the stand level. From the analytical expressions of the Faustmann criterion and the Expected Long-Run Average Yield, we deduce in presence of storm risk the influence of criteria and of discount rate in terms of optimal thinnings and cutting age. We discuss the validity of using a risk adjusted discount rate (a rate of storm risk added to the discount rate) without risk to mimic the storm risk case in terms of optimal thinnings.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2014

The controversial early brightening in the first half of 20th century: a contribution from pyrheliometer measurements in Madrid (Spain)

A long-term decrease in downward surface solar radiation from the 1950s to the 1980s ("global dimming") followed by a multi-decadal increase up to the present ("brightening") have been detected in many regions worldwide. In addition, some researchers have suggested the existence of an "early brightening" period in the first half of 20th century. However, this latter phenomenon is an open issue due to the opposite results found in literature and the scarcity of solar radiation data during this period. This paper contributes to this relevant discussion analyzing, for the first time in Southern Europe, the atmospheric column transparency derived from pyrheliometer measurements in Madrid (Spain) for the period 1911-1928. This time series is one of the three longest dataset during the first quarter of the 20th century in Europe. The results showed the great effects of the Katmai eruption (June 1912, Alaska) on transparency values during 1912-1913 with maximum relative anomalies around 8%. Outside the period affected by this volcano, the atmospheric transparency exhibited a stable behavior with a slight negative trend without any statistical significance on an annual and seasonal basis. Overall, there is no evidence of a possible early brightening period in direct solar radiation in Madrid. This phenomenon is currently an open issue and further research is needed using the few sites with available experimental records during the first half of the 20th century.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2014

Dust aerosol, clouds, and the atmospheric optical depth record over 5 Mars years of the Mars Exploration Rover mission

Dust aerosol plays a fundamental role in the behavior and evolution of the Martian atmosphere. The first five Mars years of Mars Exploration Rover data provide an unprecedented record of the dust load at two sites. This record is useful for characterization of the atmosphere at the sites and as ground truth for orbital observations. Atmospheric extinction optical depths have been derived from solar images after calibration and correction for time-varying dust that has accumulated on the camera windows. The record includes local, regional, and globally extensive dust storms. Comparison with contemporaneous thermal infrared data suggests significant variation in the size of the dust aerosols, with a 1 μm effective radius during northern summer and a 2 μm effective radius at the onset of a dust lifting event. The solar longitude (LS) 20-136° period is also characterized by the presence of cirriform clouds at the Opportunity site, especially near LS=50 and 115°. In addition to water ice clouds, a water ice haze may also be present, and carbon dioxide clouds may be present early in the season. Variations in dust opacity are important to the energy balance of each site, and work with seasonal variations in insolation to control dust devil frequency at the Spirit site.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2014

Seeded growth of monodisperse and spherical silver nanoparticles

Aiming at spherical and monodisperse silver nanoparticles with diameters up to 100 nm, the potential of heterogeneous nucleation of silver particles was explored. Gold seed particles, mainly produced with a spark discharge generator, were carried by nitrogen through a three-zone tube furnace. Silver was evaporated at 1210 °C in the first zone of the furnace and particle growth and shaping took place in the subsequent zones, heated to 730 °C and 390 °C respectively. The generated aerosol was monitored by a scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS), while parameters, such as furnace temperature, seed particle size and concentration and nitrogen carrier gas flow, were investigated. Off-line atomic force microscopy (AFM) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) were used to characterize the morphology of the silver nanoparticles in addition to the SMPS scans. Spherical silver nanoparticles with a mobility diameter of more than 115 nm and a geometric standard deviation of typically 1.09 or lower at concentrations as large as 5e5cm^{-3} could be produced. The mobility diameter of the monodisperse aerosol could be varied in the range of 50 nm to 115 nm by changing the furnace temperature or the gold seed particle size. Elemental analysis revealed that the gold from the seed particles formed a homogeneous alloy with the silver (< 3.5 atomic percent of gold). The growth mechanism could not be identified unambiguously since the obtained silver particles could both originate from heterogeneous nucleation of silver vapour on the seed particles or from coagulation and coalescence of the seed particles with smaller, homogeneously nucleated silver particles. Moreover, the narrow size distribution opens the opportunity to obtain an exclusively singly charged, monodisperse calibration aerosol at sufficient concentrations after and additional mobility selection process.

cond-mat.mtrl-sci↗