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arXiv2016

On the C-property and $w^*$-representations of risk measures

We identify a large class of Orlicz spaces $X$ for which the topology $σ(X,X_n^\sim)$ fails the C-property introduced in [7]. We also establish a variant of the C-property and use it to prove a $w^*$-representation theorem for proper convex increasing functionals on dual Banach lattices that satisfy a suitable version of Delbaen's Fatou property. Our results apply, in particular, to risk measures on all Orlicz spaces over $[0,1]$ which is not $L_1[0,1]$.

q-fin.MF↗
arXiv2016

Foundations for Wash Sales

Consider an ephemeral sale-and-repurchase of a security resulting in the same position before the sale and after the repurchase. A sale-and-repurchase is a wash sale if these transactions result in a loss within $\pm 30$ calendar days. Since a portfolio is essentially the same after a wash sale, any tax advantage from such a loss is not allowed. That is, after a wash sale a portfolio is unchanged so any loss captured by the wash sale is deemed to be solely for tax advantage and not investment purposes. This paper starts by exploring variations of the birthday problem to model wash sales. The birthday problem is: Determine the number of independent and identically distributed random variables required so there is a probability of at least 1/2 that two or more of these random variables share the same outcome. This paper gives necessary conditions for wash sales based on variations on the birthday problem. This allows us to answer questions such as: What is the likelihood of a wash sale in an unmanaged portfolio where purchases and sales are independent, uniform, and random? This paper ends by exploring the Littlewood-Offord problem as it relates capital gains and losses with wash sales.

q-fin.MF↗
arXiv2018

Sensitivity Analysis of Long-Term Cash Flows

In this article, a sensitivity analysis of long-term cash flows with respect to perturbations in the underlying process is presented. For this purpose, we employ the martingale extraction through which a pricing operator is transformed into what is easier to address. The method of Fournie et al. will be combined with the martingale extraction. We prove that the sensitivity of long-term cash flows can be represented in a simple form.

q-fin.MF↗
arXiv2016

A Stochastic Model of Order Book Dynamics using Bouncing Geometric Brownian Motions

We consider a limit order book, where buyers and sellers register to trade a security at specific prices. The largest price buyers on the book are willing to offer is called the market bid price, and the smallest price sellers on the book are willing to accept is called the market ask price. Market ask price is always greater than market bid price, and these prices move upwards and downwards due to new arrivals, market trades, and cancellations. We model these two price processes as "bouncing geometric Brownian motions (GBMs)", which are defined as exponentials of two mutually reflected Brownian motions. We then modify these bouncing GBMs to construct a discrete time stochastic process of trading times and trading prices, which is parameterized by a positive parameter $δ$. Under this model, it is shown that the inter-trading times are inverse Gaussian distributed, and the logarithmic returns between consecutive trading times follow a normal inverse Gaussian distribution. Our main results show that the logarithmic trading price process is a renewal reward process, and under a suitable scaling, this process converges to a standard Brownian motion as $δ\to 0$. We also prove that the modified ask and bid processes approach the original bouncing GBMs as $δ\to0$. Finally, we derive a simple and effective prediction formula for trading prices, and illustrate the effectiveness of the prediction formula with an example using real stock price data.

q-fin.TR↗
arXiv2017

Equilibrium pricing under relative performance concerns

We investigate the effects of the social interactions of a finite set of agents on an equilibrium pricing mechanism. A derivative written on non-tradable underlyings is introduced to the market and priced in an equilibrium framework by agents who assess risk using convex dynamic risk measures expressed by Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (BSDE). Each agent is not only exposed to financial and non-financial risk factors, but she also faces performance concerns with respect to the other agents. Within our proposed model we prove the existence and uniqueness of an equilibrium whose analysis involves systems of fully coupled multi-dimensional quadratic BSDEs. We extend the theory of the representative agent by showing that a non-standard aggregation of risk measures is possible via weighted-dilated infimal convolution. We analyze the impact of the problem's parameters on the pricing mechanism, in particular how the agents' performance concern rates affect prices and risk perceptions. In extreme situations, we find that the concern rates destroy the equilibrium while the risk measures themselves remain stable.

q-fin.MF↗
arXiv2016

Representation of homothetic forward performance processes in stochastic factor models via ergodic and infinite horizon BSDE

In an incomplete market, with incompleteness stemming from stochastic factors imperfectly correlated with the underlying stocks, we derive representations of homothetic (power, exponential and logarithmic) forward performance processes in factor-form using ergodic BSDE. We also develop a connection between the forward processes and infinite horizon BSDE, and, moreover, with risk-sensitive optimization. In addition, we develop a connection, for large time horizons, with a family of classical homothetic value function processes with random endowments.

q-fin.MF↗
arXiv2019

The Entropic Measure Transform

We introduce the entropic measure transform (EMT) problem for a general process and prove the existence of a unique optimal measure characterizing the solution. The density process of the optimal measure is characterized using a semimartingale BSDE under general conditions. The EMT is used to reinterpret the conditional entropic risk-measure and to obtain a convenient formula for the conditional expectation of a process which admits an affine representation under a related measure. The entropic measure transform is then used provide a new characterization of defaultable bond prices, forward prices, and futures prices when the asset is driven by a jump diffusion. The characterization of these pricing problems in terms of the EMT provides economic interpretations as a maximization of returns subject to a penalty for removing financial risk as expressed through the aggregate relative entropy. The EMT is shown to extend the optimal stochastic control characterization of default-free bond prices of Gombani and Runggaldier (Math. Financ. 23(4):659-686, 2013). These methods are illustrated numerically with an example in the defaultable bond setting.

q-fin.MF↗
arXiv2017

Some Results on Skorokhod Embedding and Robust Hedging with Local Time

In this paper, we provide some results on Skorokhod embedding with local time and its applications to the robust hedging problem in finance. First we investigate the robust hedging of options depending on the local time by using the recently introduced stochastic control approach, in order to identify the optimal hedging strategies, as well as the market models that realize the extremal no-arbitrage prices. As a by-product, the optimality of Vallois' Skorokhod embeddings is recovered. In addition, under appropriate conditions, we derive a new solution to the two-marginal Skorokhod embedding as a generalization of the Vallois solution. It turns out from our analysis that one needs to relax the monotonicity assumption on the embedding functions in order to embed a larger class of marginal distributions. Finally, in a full-marginal setting where the stopping times given by Vallois are well-ordered, we construct a remarkable Markov martingale which provides a new example of fake Brownian motion.

math.PR↗
arXiv2015

On the Existence of Martingale Measures in Jump Diffusion Market Models

In the context of jump-diffusion market models we construct examples that satisfy the weaker no-arbitrage condition of NA1 (NUPBR), but not NFLVR. We show that in these examples the only candidate for the density process of an equivalent local martingale measure is a supermartingale that is not a martingale, not even a local martingale. This candidate is given by the supermartingale deflator resulting from the inverse of the discounted growth optimal portfolio. In particular, we con- sider an example with constraints on the portfolio that go beyond the standard ones for admissibility.

q-fin.MF↗
arXiv2017

Game options in an imperfect market with default

We study pricing and superhedging strategies for game options in an imperfect market with default. We extend the results obtained by Kifer in \cite{Kifer} in the case of a perfect market model to the case of an imperfect market with default, when the imperfections are taken into account via the nonlinearity of the wealth dynamics. We introduce the {\em seller's price} of the game option as the infimum of the initial wealths which allow the seller to be superhedged. We {prove} that this price coincides with the value function of an associated {\em generalized} Dynkin game, recently introduced in \cite{DQS2}, expressed with a nonlinear expectation induced by a nonlinear BSDE with default jump. We moreover study the existence of superhedging strategies. We then address the case of ambiguity on the model, - for example ambiguity on the default probability - and characterize the robust seller's price of a game option as the value function of a {\em mixed generalized} Dynkin game. We study the existence of a cancellation time and a trading strategy which allow the seller to be super-hedged, whatever the model is.

q-fin.MF↗
arXiv2016

A Framework for Analyzing Stochastic Jumps in Finance based on Belief and Knowledge

We introduce a formal language IE that is a variant of the language PAL developed in [van Benthem 2011] by adding a belief operator and a common belief operator,specializing to stochastic analysis. A constant symbol in the language denotes a stochastic process so that we can represent several financial events as formulae in the language, which is expected to be clues of analyzing the moments that some stochastic jumps such as financial crises occur based on knowledge and belief of individuals or those shared within groups of individuals. In order to represent beliefs, we use sigma-complete Boolean algebras as generalized sigma-algebras. We use the representation for constructing a model in which the interpretations of the formulae written in the language IE reside. The model also uses some new categories for integrating several components appeared in the theory into one.

q-fin.MF↗
arXiv2016

Arbitrage and Hedging in model-independent markets with frictions

We provide a Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing and a Superhedging Theorem for a model independent discrete time financial market with proportional transaction costs. We consider a probability-free version of the Robust No Arbitrage condition introduced in Schachermayer ['04] and show that this is equivalent to the existence of Consistent Price Systems. Moreover, we prove that the superhedging price for a claim g coincides with the frictionless superhedging price of g for a suitable process in the bid-ask spread.

q-fin.MF↗
arXiv2016

FX Options in Target Zone

In this note we discuss - in what is intended to be a pedagogical fashion - FX option pricing in target zones with attainable boundaries. The boundaries must be reflecting. The no-arbitrage requirement implies that the differential (foreign minus domestic) short-rate is not deterministic. When the band is narrow, we can pick the functional form of the FX rate process based on computational convenience. With a thoughtful choice, the FX option pricing problem can be solved analytically. The European option prices are expressed via (fast converging) series of elementary functions. We discuss the general approach to solving the pricing PDE and explicit examples, including analytically tractable models with (non-Ornstein-Uhlenbeck) mean-reversion.

q-fin.PR↗
arXiv2016

Purely pathwise probability-free Ito integral

This paper gives several simple constructions of the pathwise Ito integral $\int_0^tϕdω$ for an integrand $ϕ$ and a price path $ω$ as integrator, with $ϕ$ and $ω$ satisfying various topological and analytical conditions. The definitions are purely pathwise in that neither $ϕ$ nor $ω$ are assumed to be paths of stochastic processes, and the Ito integral exists almost surely in a non-probabilistic financial sense. For example, one of the results shows the existence of $\int_0^tϕdω$ for a cadlag integrand $ϕ$ and a cadlag integrator $ω$ with jumps bounded in a predictable manner.

q-fin.MF↗
arXiv2015

Financial market models in discrete time beyond the concave case

In this article we propose a study of market models starting from a set of axioms, as one does in the case of risk measures. We define a market model simply as a mapping from the set of adapted strategies to the set of random variables describing the outcome of trading. We do not make any concavity assumptions. The first result is that under sequential upper-semicontinuity the market model can be represented as a normal integrand. We then extend the concept of no-arbitrage to this setup and study its consequences as the super-hedging theorem and utility maximization. Finally, we show how to extend the concepts and results to the case of vector-valued market models, an example of which is the Kabanov model of currency markets.

q-fin.MF↗
arXiv2015

An asymmetric ARCH model and the non-stationarity of Clustering and Leverage effects

We propose a new volatility model based on two stylized facts of the volatility in the stock market: clustering and leverage effect. We calibrate our model parameters, in the leading order, with 77 years Dow Jones Industrial Average data. We find in the short time scale (10 to 50 days) the future volatility is sensitive to the sign of past returns, i.e. asymmetric feedback or leverage effect. However, in the long time scale (300 to 1000 days) clustering becomes the main factor. We study non-stationary features by using moving windows and find that clustering and leverage effects display time evolutions that are rather nontrivial. The structure of our model allows us to shed light on a few surprising facts recently found by Chicheportiche and Bouchaud.

q-fin.ST↗
arXiv2015

Variations on an example of Karatzas and Ruf

Markets composed of stocks with capitalization processes represented by positive continuous semimartingales are studied under the condition that the market excess growth rate is bounded away from zero. The following examples of these markets are given: i) a market with a singular covariance matrix and instantaneous relative arbitrage; ii) a market with a singular covariance matrix and no arbitrage; iii) a market with a nonsingular covariance matrix and no arbitrage; iv) a market with a nonsingular covariance matrix and relative arbitrage over an arbitrary time horizon.

q-fin.MF↗