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arXiv2026

Electric Vehicle Charging Profile Forecasting Using Hybrid Models

Electric Vehicle (EV) fast charging stations require forecasting techniques both at the single charger level and aggregated level. While for the latter several models exist, forecasting individual EV charging profiles is still underexplored in literature. However, such methods may be potentially used by battery-aware scheduling, leading to a more granular update of the charging station aggregated forecast and provide a more accurate estimation of EVs departure times. Nonetheless, the variable extent of available information in time and in different settings could jeopardize these benefits. For this reason, we propose a hybrid and lightweight method to estimate the EV charging profile before and during the charging process. Besides evaluating this method on multiple EVs from a public dataset, we also assess the impact of different level of information in the time transposition of the charging profile.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2026

On the Convergence of Belief Propagation for Multipath Data Association in Target Tracking

Belief propagation (BP) is widely used for data association (DA) in target tracking. Existing convergence analyses of BP for DA address only the two-way correspondence between targets and measurements, where each target generates at most one measurement per scan. Multipath DA (MPDA) allows a single target to produce multiple measurements via distinct propagation paths, creating a three-way correspondence among targets, paths, and measurements, for which a complete convergence proof has not yet been provided. We provide such a proof for the BP updates in MPDA, establishing convergence to a unique fixed point. Simulations illustrate the convergence behavior of BP in MPDA and demonstrate a favorable accuracy--efficiency trade-off relative to both single-scan and two-scan variants of the multiple-detection multiple-hypothesis tracker.

cs.IT↗

arXiv2026

Identification of $dq$-Asymmetric Impedances as Complex Transfer Functions Using a Single Arbitrary Excitation

Cross-coupling between the $dq$ coordinates makes the identification of asymmetric grid impedances a challenging problem, particularly near the fundamental frequency where the asymmetric coupling is strongest. Existing schemes usually handle it either by perturbing the two coordinates sequentially, which lengthens the measurement, or by using a time-domain method with a global parametric model whose order must be tuned. This paper develops a single-shot active non-parametric frequency-domain method that avoids both. The equivalent impedance is parameterized by a pair of single-input single-output complex transfer functions. Each spectral line is fitted with a local rational model; the leakage and transient contributions are estimated, so that neither periodic steady-state excitation nor repeated excitation cycles are required. We give the exact finite-time discrete Fourier transform relation for the conjugate-coupled complex-signal model, and analyse the distortion that a stationary-frame filter placed ahead of the Park transform imposes on the identified pair. The method is validated on a controller hardware-in-the-loop platform against an analytically derived small-signal model, for a symmetric grid and for the same grid with an added grid-following converter that renders it asymmetric. Both complex transfer functions and all four real transfer functions of the $dq$ impedance are recovered over a wide band from a single one-second record of a random excitation, at 1 Hz resolution.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2026

Adaptive RIS-aided Communications through ML-based Generation of Phase Masks

Reconfigurable Intelligent Surfaces (RISs) are an attractive technology for Millimeter Wave (mmWave) communications due to their ability to passively reflect incident signals. However, current implementations of RIS rely on performing computationally-intensive algorithms offline to generate phase masks, which are stored as a codebook on the embedded microcontroller on the RIS. The codebook size is restricted by the embedded microcontroller's storage capacity, which limits the ability of the RIS to adapt to evolving channel conditions and deployment scenarios. In this demo, we showcase an Machine Learning (ML)-based solution for dynamically generating new phase masks during runtime. Our approach leverages a ML model deployed on the microcontroller for approximating the output of a phase mask generation algorithm, responding to new inputs while remaining smaller than a codebook.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2026

Performance Guarantees for Data-Driven Sequential Decision-Making

The solutions to many sequential decision-making problems are characterized by dynamic programming and Bellman's principle of optimality. However, due to the inherent complexity of solving Bellman's equation exactly, there has been significant interest in developing various approximate dynamic programming (ADP) schemes to obtain near-optimal solutions. A fundamental question that arises is: how close are the objective values produced by ADP schemes relative to the true optimal objective values? In this paper, we develop a general framework that provides performance guarantees for ADP schemes in the form of ratio bounds. Specifically, we show that the objective value under an ADP scheme is at least a computable fraction of the optimal value. We further demonstrate the applicability of our theoretical framework through several applications: data-driven robot path planning, pendulum stabilization, and multi-agent sensor coverage.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2026

Stochastic Nonlinear Model Predictive Control with Gaussian Mixture Uncertainty Propagation

We propose a novel Stochastic Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (SNMPC) framework for nonlinear systems with additive noise. Building on recent advances in nonlinear uncertainty propagation, we show that the state distribution of the system can be tractably approximated over time by Gaussian mixture distributions, with formal error bounds in Wasserstein distance. This representation yields closed-form expressions for expected costs and chance constraints, which become exact for affine constraints and exact up to a constant for quadratic costs. Consequently, the resulting control problem can be solved efficiently via nonlinear programming, while providing formal open-loop guarantees of correctness and asymptotic optimality. Experiments on a set of benchmarks demonstrate that the proposed approach compares favorably with existing methods in nonlinear settings with multi-modal disturbances, where standard approaches lead to poorly scaled solutions and unsafe or overly conservative control actions.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2026

Finite Sample Identification of Analytic Nonlinear Systems

This paper studies the identification of linearly parameterized nonlinear (LPN) systems. Although LPN systems share the same linear parameterization structure as linear systems, they are more challenging to identify. In particular, previous work has shown, through a counterexample based on a piecewise-affine system, that non-active exploration is generally insufficient for LPN system identification. In this paper, we consider LPN systems with real-analytic feature functions. We show that non-active exploration is sufficient for the identification of this class of systems by establishing non-asymptotic convergence rates of least-squares estimation and set-membership estimation. In addition, we provide counterexamples to show that non-active exploration may not be sufficient for system identification for non-real-analytic systems, even if those systems are infinitely differentiable. We present numerical experiments to further support and validate our theoretical results.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2026

System Identification of Lithium-Ion Battery Equivalent Circuit Models Using Ensemble Kalman Inversion

System identification remains an intriguing challenge for lithium-ion batteries, as many models are nonlinear, exhibit multi-physics coupling, and involve a large number of parameters. In this paper, we address this challenge using the ensemble Kalman inversion (EnKI) method for battery system identification. EnKI performs maximum a posteriori parameter estimation through successive local Gaussian approximations, enabling an iterative and incremental search for unknown parameters. The search combines Monte Carlo sampling with Kalman-type updates to evolve an ensemble of samples, thereby offering empirical stability and the ability to handle strongly nonlinear models. We validate the proposed approach on two equivalent circuit models with coupled electro-thermal dynamics, through both simulation and experiments. The results demonstrate that the proposed approach achieves accurate parameter estimation with rapid iterative convergence, and it shows strong potential for application to other battery models.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2026

Subspace Based Identification of Errors-in-Variables Linear Descriptor Systems

The identification of linear descriptor systems (DAEs) from noise-corrupted data makes two critical assumptions: requirement of an \textit{a priori} classification of variables into inputs and outputs, and a pre-specified structural assumption with respect to the index of the system. This paper proposes a data-driven methodology for identifying index-0 and index-1 DAEs within an errors-in-variables framework. We extend a subspace-based iterative PCA (SMI-IPCA) approach to the behavioral setting, treating all measured variables as a unified augmented vector to avoid classification bias. This method enables systematic estimation of the noise variances, the number of algebraic and differential output variables, while simultaneously identifying the algebraic constraints and kernel representation of the dynamic system corresponding to its minimal realization order without prior structural knowledge. Simulation studies on index-0 and index-1 systems demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach and its practical applicability.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2026

On Distributed Control of Continuum Swarms: Local Controllers as Differential Operators

We study the problem of distributed control of large-scale robotic swarms which can be modeled as continuum densities evolving under the continuity equation. We propose a formalization of distributed controllers as (generally nonlinear) spatial differential operators, in which control inputs depend only on local information about the state and environment. This perspective yields a fully local, PDE-based framework for analysis and design. We apply this framework to the problem of stabilizing a swarm density around an arbitrary target density, and investigate fundamental limitations of low-spatial-order distributed controllers in achieving this goal. In particular, we show that controllers which act in a purely pointwise manner are incompatible with natural system symmetries and strong forms of stability, and must rely on mixing-type behavior to achieve stabilization. In contrast, we present a simple first-order control law which achieves stabilization and enjoys substantially stronger properties.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2026

Managing Inherent Risk: On the Conceptualization of Risk in Defense Systems

Certain defense systems are, by nature, deployed in a civilian environment in order to serve a defensive function for that environment. However, the risk involved with their deployment and operation poses a challenge for the public acceptance of these systems. Compared to safety engineering for civilian systems, the risk constellation is quite different. While reducing risk of safety-critical systems is generally desirable, defense systems are required to cause harm in order to be useful. In both cases, not all risk can be eliminated. The complex risk constellation of defense systems has implications for the systems' designs. We compare the concepts of risk in existing standards from both the civilian and the military domains. An extended constellation of risks needs to be considered, including risk caused by external threats to physical security. By including this risk constellation in public communication about defense systems, we aim to stimulate a productive debate.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2026

Horizon-Independent Contraction for Continuous-Time Discounted Regularized Mean-Field Games

We study contraction properties of non-stationary continuous-time mean-field games (MFGs) under discounting and entropy regularization. The state of the representative agent evolves according to a controlled continuous-time Markov chain, and both the state and action spaces are finite. In contrast to the undiscounted case, we show that, under a sufficiently large discount rate, finite-horizon MFGs admit a horizon-independent contraction condition, which also coincides with the corresponding infinite-horizon non-stationary contraction condition. As a byproduct, we obtain an explicit convergence rate between finite- and infinite-horizon mean-field equilibria. For each finite horizon, we further derive a refined contraction criterion from the spectral radius of a positive operator that majorizes the propagation of policy errors, and show that its large-horizon limit agrees with the horizon-independent contraction factor. Finally, we provide an explicit error bound between discounted and undiscounted finite-horizon regularized equilibria.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2026

A Systematic Approach to Mechanism Design with Stochastic Dynamic Stability

We consider a resource allocation problem with strategic agents that have private stochastic satisfaction functions and local constraints. To achieve a global optimal solution, we propose an incentive mechanism that induces a game among the agents. For the payment function of the mechanism, we construct a family of quadratic functions using the linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach that implements the social welfare maximizing outcome on the unique Nash equilibrium (NE) of the induced game while ensuring budget balance and individual rationality. Moreover, we propose a decentralized variable sample-size proximal best-response (VS-PBR) algorithm with Krasnoselskij iteration where only aggregate information is available to the agents. The algorithm is dynamically stable, as it is proven to converge in the mean-square sense to the NE of the game. The efficiency of the mechanism is then investigated on the Sioux Falls City transportation network, where electric vehicle (EV) users jointly select their destination and route.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2025

Eavesdropping on Goal-Oriented Communication: Timing Attacks and Countermeasures

Goal-oriented communication is a new paradigm that considers the meaning of transmitted information to optimize communication. One possible application is the remote monitoring of a process under communication costs: scheduling updates based on goal-oriented considerations can significantly reduce transmission frequency while maintaining high-quality tracking performance. However, goal-oriented scheduling also opens a timing-based side-channel that an eavesdropper may exploit to obtain information about the state of the remote process, even if the content of updates is perfectly secure. In this work, we study an eavesdropping attack against pull-based goal-oriented scheduling for the tracking of remote Markov processes. We provide a theoretical framework for defining the effectiveness of the attack and of possible countermeasures, as well as a practical heuristic that can provide a balance between the performance gains offered by goal-oriented communication and the information leakage.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2026

Competitive One-Step-Ahead Control of Friedkin--Johnsen Networks: Potential Games, Stability, and the Price of Competition

This paper studies competitive one-step-ahead control of Friedkin-Johnsen networks with overlapping player influence. The one-step interaction is an exact potential game with a unique Nash equilibrium obtained from a symmetric positive-definite system. Sequential best-response sweeps converge for every frozen network state, parallel sweeps obey an exact Jacobi condition (and always converge with two players), and one-sweep implementations require an augmented state-action stability test. For marginal networks, a signed left-right damping condition is sufficient for exact-equilibrium stability and becomes a sharp first-order instability test when its sign is reversed. A resolvent identity clarifies the feedback geometry, while a control-aware centrality identifies the goal conflicts that matter most. We characterize attainable equilibria under unconstrained, convex, and sparse goal restrictions and give a closed form for the same-state welfare loss caused by competition. Numerical examples verify the stability thresholds, geometry, and welfare predictions.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2026

Scaling WiFi Sensing for Ubiquitous Home Monitoring: Lessons from Real-World Deployment on Millions of Devices

WiFi-based home monitoring offers compelling advantages over traditional camera and sensor solutions by leveraging existing wireless infrastructure for contactless, privacy-preserving and through-the-wall detection. This paper presents insights from developing and deploying a WiFi-based human monitoring system across real-world residential environments, addressing the gap between academic research and practical deployment. Through a two-year study involving 280 edge devices across 15 homes in 11 U.S. states, collecting over 4 million motion samples, we identify and address four critical deployment challenges previously underexplored in academic settings: (1) false positives from non-human motion sources (pets, robots) that degrade system reliability, (2) hardware heterogeneity in commercial IoT devices causing inconsistent CSI quality, (3) signal interference in multi-user environments limiting individual tracking capabilities, and (4) computational and bandwidth constraints preventing real-time edge processing. The deployed system integrates a biomechanics-based classifier that reduces non-human false alarms from 63.1\% to 8.4\%, a multi-layer sensing quality metric validating device suitability without environment-specific calibration, proximity-based multi-user detection leveraging distributed IoT devices, and a hybrid edge-cloud architecture with ACF-based compression achieving 99.72\% data reduction. The integrated system achieves 92.61\% human motion detection accuracy across diverse uncontrolled home environments. We have successfully deployed home monitoring technology on millions of WiFi routers nationwide and smart IoT devices (e.g., bulbs, plugs) worldwide, demonstrating its viability for large-scale real-world applications. We share these findings to guide future research toward deployable WiFi sensing systems.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2026

Conformal Prediction Regions for Continuous-Time Trajectories under Random Sampling

Uncertainty quantification for continuous-time trajectories is a prerequisite in many safety-critical engineering domains. However, a major challenge in data-driven uncertainty quantification is that calibration trajectories are sampled only at discrete, often sparse, and random intervals. Standard conformal prediction methods typically fail to provide guarantees in between sampling times. In this work, we introduce a new technique to obtain valid conformal prediction regions for continuous-time trajectories that are sampled at discrete and possibly random times. To accomplish this goal, we make three contributions: (1) we provide an algorithm that leverages regularity properties of the underlying trajectories to obtain valid prediction regions in between samples, (2) we provide methods that estimate valid bounds on the aforementioned regularity properties from an additional high-frequency calibration dataset, and (3) we introduce and compare several algorithms to deal with random sampling times. Finally, we present experiments where we validate that our methods achieve valid coverage across the entire continuous trajectory.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2026

Integrated Transmission and Distribution Expansion Planning Considering Customer Actions and Distributed Energy Resources

The continued integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) motivates research into integrated system planning. While existing literature shows that DERs can reduce system costs, it often overlooks customer behaviour, particularly DER adoption driven by cost savings and incentives. System cost allocation can influence these decisions, affecting DER uptake, grid injections, and overall system efficiency. Therefore, integrated system planning should consider both system- and customer-level benefits of DERs. This paper proposes a multi-step framework that combines an integrated planning model with cost allocation and retailer business models. The integrated planning model minimizes total system costs subject to network constraints, while the cost allocation and retailer models capture customer responses to costs and DER opportunities. By coordinating these models, the framework represents how customer behaviour influences planning outcomes. The proposed approach is demonstrated on a 36-bus system, with results showing that incorporating customer decision-making reduces overall system costs, lowers reliance on transmission-connected generation, and supports more realistic system planning.

eess.SY↗