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arXiv2015

Zonal jets in equilibrating baroclinic instability on the polar beta-plane: experiments with altimetry

Results from the laboratory experiments on the evolution of baroclinically unstable flows generated in a rotating tank with topographic beta-effect are presented. We study zonal jets of alternating direction which occur in these flows. The primary system we model includes lighter fluid in the South and heavier fluid in the North with resulting slow meridional circulation and fast mean zonal motion. In a two-layer system the velocity shear between the layers results in baroclinic instability which equilibrates with time and, due to interaction with beta-effect generates zonal jets. This system is archetypal for various geophysical systems including the general circulation and jet streams in the Earths atmosphere, the Antarctic Circumpolar Current or the areas in the vicinity of western boundary currents where baroclinic instability and multiple zonal jets are observed. The gradient of the surface elevation and the thickness of the upper layer are measured in the experiments using the Altimetric Imaging Velocimetry and the Optical Thickness Velocimetry techniques respectively. Barotropic and baroclinic velocity fields are then derived from the measured quantities. The results demonstrate that the zonal jets are driven by eddy forcing due to continuously created baroclinic perturbations. The flow is baroclinic to a significant degree and the jets are surface intensified. The meridional wavelength of the jets varies linearly with the baroclinic radius of deformation and is also in a good agreement with a modified Rhines scale. This suggests a linear dependence of the perturbation velocity in the equilibrated baroclinically unstable flow on the beta-parameter.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2015

Scaling in stratocumulus fields: an emergent property

Marine stratocumulus clouds play a critical role in the Earth's climate system. They display an amazing array of complex behaviors at many different spatiotemporal scales. Precipitation in these clouds is in general very light, but it is vital for clouds' systematic evolution and organization. Here we identify areas of high liquid water path within these clouds as potentially precipitating, or pouches. They are breeding grounds for stratocumuli to change their organization form. We show, using different satellite data sets, that the size distribution of these pouches show a universal scaling. We argue that such scaling is an emergent property of the cloud system, which results from numbers interactions at the microscopic scale.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2015

The Black Sea Wave Energy: The Present State and the Twentieth century Changes

In this paper we present a study of the present state of the Black Sea wave energy. The studies of other authors are based on the use of input data from atmospheric reanalysis or a downscaling of such reanalysis. Instead of reanalysis data, we use input data from the operational limited area numerical weather prediction model ALADIN. We showed that the estimations of the Black Sea wave energy based on reanalyses deviate significantly from the real potential. We showed also that the highest values of the mean annual wave power flux is between 4.5 and 5.0 kW/m2 and the near shore areas with the highest wave energy potential are the southernmost Bulgarian coast and the coast of Turkey north of Istanbul. While we showed that the wind data from the reanalysis are not useful for the estimation of the actual wave energy potential, we claimed that the reanalysis data is useful to study the long term changes of the wave energy of the Black Sea. We used the 10m winds from the recent ERA-20C reanalysis, which covers the period 1901-2010. We performed a 110 years hindcast with these winds using the SWAN wave model. The results for the area with the highest mean annual wave energy showed that there was an increase during the first half of the XX century followed by a small decrease and again a period with elevated wave energy during the seventies. After 1980 there is a steady decrease of the Black Sea wave energy.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2015

21st century change in ocean response to climate forcing

Modeling globally averaged information on climate forcing from the land surface temperature data, the sea surface temperatures (SST) and the empirically determined relationship between the changes in SST and the turbulent diffusion of heat into the upper ocean demonstrates a consistent link. The modeling is accurate throughout the 20th century despite the different phases of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) or the strong divergence between land and ocean surface warming. It only fails during the last 15 years when SST drops well below the trend. The finding reinforces the view that slower global warming over the previous 15 years is not a caused by a negative phase of the IPO or by the variations in the upper ocean (top 700 m) warming but results from a change in the ocean behavior leading to increased heat transfer into the deeper ocean.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2015

Random walks across the sea: the origin of rogue waves?

Ocean rogue waves are large and suddenly appearing surface gravity waves, which may cause severe damage to ships and other maritime structures. Despite years of research, the exact origin of rogue waves is still disputed. Linear interference of waves with random phase has often been cited as one possible explanation, but apparently does not satisfactorily explain the probability of extreme events in the ocean. Other explanations therefore suggested a decisive role of a nonlinearity in the system. Here we show that linear interference of a finite and variable number of waves may very well explain the heavy tail in the wave height distribution. Our model can explain all prototypical ocean rogue waves reported so far, including the "three sisters" as well as rogue holes. We further suggest nonlinear time series analysis for estimation of the characteristic number of interfering waves for a given sea state. If ocean dynamics is ruled by interference of less than ten waves, rogue waves cannot appear as a matter of principle. In contrast, for larger numbers, their appearance is much more likely than predicted by parameterless models or longterm observation. The pronounced threshold behavior of our model enables effective forecasting of extreme ocean waves.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2015

Enhancing Low-Cost Ozone Spectrometers to Measure Mesospheric Winds and Tides

Ground-based spectrometers have been developed to measure the concentration, velocity, and temperature of ozone in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) using low-cost satellite television electronics to observe the 11.072 GHz spectral line of ozone. A two-channel spectrometer has been engineered to yield various performance improvements, including a doubling of the signal-to-noise ratio, improved data processing efficiency, and lower power consumption at 15 W. Following 2009 and 2012 observations of the seasonal and diurnal variations in ozone concentration near the mesopause, the ozone line was observed at an altitude near 95 km and latitude of 38 degrees north using three single-channel spectrometers located at the MIT Haystack Observatory (Westford, MA), Chelmsford High School (Chelmsford, MA), and Union College (Schenectady, NY) pointed south at 8 degrees. Observations from 2009 through 2014 are used to derive the nightly-averaged seasonal variation in meridional velocity, as well as the seasonally-averaged variation with local solar time. The results indicate a seasonal trend in which the winds at 95 km come from the north at about $10\,\text{m}\text{s}^{-1}$ in the summer of the northern hemisphere, and from the south at about $10\,\text{m}\text{s}^{-1}$ in the winter. Nighttime data from -5 to +5 hours local solar time show a gradual transition of the meridional wind velocity from about -$20\,\text{m}\text{s}^{-1}$ to +$20\,\text{m}\text{s}^{-1}$. These two trends correlate with nighttime wind measurements from the Millstone Hill High-Resolution Fabry-Perot Interferometer (FPI) in Westford, MA, which uses the 557.7 nm green line nightglow from atomic oxygen centered at 95 km. The results have also been compared with average meridional winds measured with meteor radar.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2015

Study Pelamis system to capture energy of ocean wave

Over the years, energy has become vital for humans, enabling us to comfort, leisure, mobility and other factors. The quest for cheap energy sources, renewable and clean has grown in recent years, mainly for the reduction of effects that comes degrading nature, allowing scientists and engineers to search for new technologies. Many energy sources have been researched for proper funding where some stand out for their ease of obtaining, by other low cost and others by being renewable. The main objective of this work is to study one of these energy sources - wave energy, whose capture is still in development. This energy comes from the waves of the sea and is 100% renewable and with minimal environmental impact when compared to hydro, nuclear, coal, thermal, etc. The system studied here is the Pelamis system.

physics.pop-ph↗

arXiv2015

The Contribution of Internal and Model Variabilities to the Uncertainty in CMIP5 Decadal Climate Predictions

Decadal climate predictions, which are initialized with observed conditions, are characterized by two main sources of uncertainties--internal and model variabilities. Using an ensemble of climate model simulations from the CMIP5 decadal experiments, we quantified the total uncertainty associated with these predictions and the relative importance of each source. Annual and monthly averages of the surface temperature and wind components were considered. We show that different definitions of the anomaly results in different conclusions regarding the variance of the ensemble members. However, some features of the uncertainty are common to all the measures we considered. We found that over decadal time scales, there is no considerable increase in the uncertainty with time. The model variability is more sensitive to the annual cycle than the internal variability. This, in turn, results in a maximal uncertainty during the winter in the northern hemisphere. The uncertainty of the surface temperature prediction is dominated by the model variability, whereas the uncertainty of the wind components is determined by both sources. Analysis of the spatial distribution of the uncertainty reveals that the surface temperature has higher variability over land and in high latitudes, whereas the surface zonal wind has higher variability over the ocean. The relative importance of the internal and model variabilities depends on the averaging period, the definition of the anomaly, and the location. These findings suggest that several methods should be combined in order to assess future climate prediction uncertainties and that weighting schemes of the ensemble members may reduce the uncertainties.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2015

Revealing pre-earthquake signatures in atmosphere and ionosphere associated with 2015 M7.8 and M7.3 events in Nepal. Preliminary results

We analyze retrospectively/prospectively the transient variations of three different physical parameters of atmosphere during the time of M7.8 and M7.3 events in Nepal: outgoing earth radiation (OLR), GPS/TEC and the thermodynamic proprieties in the lower atmosphere. We found that in mid March 2015 a rapid augment of satellite observed earth radiation in atmosphere and the anomaly located in close vicinity to the future M7.8 epicenter reached the maximum on April 21-22. Our continuous satellite analysis revealed prospectively the new strong anomaly on May 3th, which was the reason to contemplate another large event in the area. On May 12, 2015 a large aftershock of M7.3 occurred. The analysis of air temperature from weather ground station near Katmandu shows analogous patterns with offset 1-2 days earlier to the satellite anomalies. The GPS/TEC data analysis indicates an augment and variation in electron density reaching a maximum value during April 22-24 period. A strong negative TEC anomaly in the crest of EIA (Equatorial Ionospheric Anomaly) has occurred on April 21st and strong positive on April 24th, 2015. Our preliminary results show correlation between the pre-earthquake atmospheric and ionospheric anomalies and the occurrence of 2015 M7.8 and M7.3 events in Nepal.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2015

Comparison of Uncertainty of Two Precipitation Prediction Models

Meteorological inputs are an important part of subsurface flow and transport modeling. The choice of source for meteorological data used as inputs has significant impacts on the results of subsurface flow and transport studies. One method to obtain the meteorological data required for flow and transport studies is the use of weather generating models. This paper compares the difference in performance of two weather generating models at Technical Area 54 of Los Alamos National Lab. Technical Area 54 is contains several waste pits for low-level radioactive waste and is the site for subsurface flow and transport studies. This makes the comparison of the performance of the two weather generators at this site particularly valuable.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2016

Extreme event statistics of daily rainfall: Dynamical systems approach

We analyse the probability densities of daily rainfall amounts at a variety of locations on the Earth. The observed distributions of the amount of rainfall fit well to a q-exponential distribution with exponent q close to q=1.3. We discuss possible reasons for the emergence of this power law. On the contrary, the waiting time distribution between rainy days is observed to follow a near-exponential distribution. A careful investigation shows that a q-exponential with q=1.05 yields actually the best fit of the data. A Poisson process where the rate fluctuates slightly in a superstatistical way is discussed as a possible model for this. We discuss the extreme value statistics for extreme daily rainfall, which can potentially lead to flooding. This is described by Frechet distributions as the corresponding distributions of the amount of daily rainfall decay with a power law. On the other hand, looking at extreme event statistics of waiting times between rainy days (leading to droughts for very long dry periods) we obtain from the observed near-exponential decay of waiting times an extreme event statistics close to Gumbel distributions. We discuss superstatistical dynamical systems as simple models in this context.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2015

Geometrical aspects of the interaction between expanding clouds and environment

This work is intended to be a contribution to the study of the morphology of the rising convective columns, for a better representation of the processes of entrainment and detrainment. We examine technical methods for the description of the interface of expanding clouds and reveal the role of \emph{fingering} instability which increases the effective length of the periphery of the cloud. Assuming Laplacian growth we give a detailed derivation of the time-dependent conformal transformation that solves the equation of the \emph{fingering} instability. For the phase of slower expansion, the evolution of complex poles with a dynamics largely controlled by the Hilbert operator (acting on the function that represents the interface position) leads to \emph{cusp} singularities but smooths out the smaller scale perturbations. We review the arguments that the rising column cannot preserve its integrity (seen as compacity in any horizontal section), because of the penetrative downdrafts or the incomplete repulsion of the static environmental air through momentum transfer. Then we propose an analytical framework which is adequate for competition of two distinct phases of the same system. The methods exmined here are formulated in a general framework and can be easily adapted to particular cases of atmospheric convection.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2015

Sensitivity and Variability Redux in Hot-Jupiter Flow Simulations

We revisit the issue of sensitivity to initial flow and intrinsic variability in hot-Jupiter atmospheric flow simulations, originally investigated by Cho et al. (2008) and Thrastarson & Cho (2010). The flow in the lower region (~1 to 20 MPa) `dragged' to immobility and uniform temperature on a very short timescale, as in Liu & Showman (2013), leads to effectively a complete cessation of variability as well as sensitivity in three-dimensional (3D) simulations with traditional primitive equations. Such momentum (Rayleigh) and thermal (Newtonian) drags are, however, ad hoc for 3D giant planet simulations. For 3D hot-Jupiter simulations, which typically already employ strong Newtonian drag in the upper region, sensitivity is not quenched if only the Newtonian drag is applied in the lower region, without the strong Rayleigh drag: in general, both sensitivity and variability persist if the two drags are not applied concurrently in the lower region. However, even when the drags are applied concurrently, vertically-propagating planetary waves give rise to significant variability in the ~0.05 to 0.5 MPa region, if the vertical resolution of the lower region is increased (e.g. here with 1000 layers for the entire domain). New observations on the effects of the physical setup and model convergence in `deep' atmosphere simulations are also presented.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2016

Tracking the Teletherms: The spatiotemporal dynamics of the hottest and coldest days of the year

Instabilities and long term shifts in seasons, whether induced by natural drivers or human activities, pose great disruptive threats to ecological, agricultural, and social systems. Here, we propose, measure, and explore two fundamental markers of location-sensitive seasonal variations: the Summer and Winter Teletherms---the on-average annual dates of the hottest and coldest days of the year. We analyse daily temperature extremes recorded at 1218 stations across the contiguous United States from 1853--2012, and observe large regional variation with the Summer Teletherm falling up to 90 days after the Summer Solstice, and 50 days for the Winter Teletherm after the Winter Solstice. We show that Teletherm temporal dynamics are substantive with clear and in some cases dramatic shifts reflective of system bifurcations. We also compare recorded daily temperature extremes with output from two regional climate models finding considerable though relatively unbiased error. Our work demonstrates that Teletherms are an intuitive, powerful, and statistically sound measure of local climate change, and that they pose detailed, stringent challenges for future theoretical and computational models.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2015

On the local properties of highly nonlinear unsteady gravity water waves. Part 1. Slowdown, kinematics and energetics

The kinematic properties of unsteady highly non-linear 3D wave groups have been investigated using a numerical wave tank. Although carrier wave speeds based on zero-crossing analysis remain within +-7% of linear theory predictions, crests and troughs locally undertake a systematic cyclical leaning from forward to backward as the crests/troughs transition through their maximum amplitude. Consequently, both crests and troughs slow down by approximately 15% of the linear velocity, in sharp contrast to the predictions of finite amplitude Stokes steady wavetrain theory. Velocity profiles under the crest maximum have been investigated and surface values in excess of 1.8 times the equivalent Stokes velocity can be observed. Equipartitioning between depth-integrated kinetic and potential energy holds globally on the scale of the wave group. However, equipartitioning does not occur at crests and troughs (even for low amplitude Stokes waves), where the local ratio of potential to total energy varies systemically as a function of wave steepness about a mean value of 0.67.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2017

On a unified breaking onset threshold for gravity waves in deep and intermediate depth water

We revisit the classical but as yet unresolved problem of predicting the breaking onset of 2D and 3D irrotational gravity water waves. This study focuses on domains with flat bottom topography and conditions ranging from deep to intermediate depth (depth to wavelength ratio from 1 to 0.2). Our calculations based on a fully nonlinear boundary element model investigated geometric, kinematic and energetic differences between maximally recurrent and marginally breaking waves in focusing wave groups. Maximally steep non-breaking (maximally recurrent) waves are clearly separated from marginally breaking waves by their normalised energy fluxes localized near the crest region. On the surface, this reduces to the local ratio of the energy flux velocity (here the fluid velocity) to the crest point velocity for the tallest wave in the evolving group. This provides a robust threshold parameter for breaking onset for 2D and 3D wave packets propagating in uniform water depths from deep to intermediate. Warning of imminent breaking onset was found to be detected up to a fifth of a carrier wave period prior to a breaking event.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2015

Wave breaking onset of two-dimensional deep-water wave groups in the presence and absence of wind

The criterion for the initiation of breaking demonstrated numerically by Barthelemy et al. (2015) has been investigated in the laboratory for unidirectional wave groups in deep-water and extended to include conditions of moderate wind forcing. Thermal Image Velocimetry was used to compare measurements of the crest surface water particle velocity (Us) with the wave crest velocity (C), as determined by an array of closely-spaced wave gauges. The energy flux ratio Bx = Us/C that distinguishes maximum recurrence from marginal breaking was found to be 0.840 $\pm$ 0.016 in good agreement with the numerically determined value of 0.855. Further, the threshold was found to be robust for different classes of wave groups of distinct characteristic steepness at the breaking threshold. Increasing wind forcing from zero to Uλ/4/C0=1.42 increased this threshold by 2%. Increasing the spectral bandwidth (decreasing the Benjamin-Feir index from 0.39 to 0.31) systematically reduced the threshold by 1.5%.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2015

The potential impact of turbulent velocity fluctuations on drizzle formation in Cumulus clouds in an idealized 2D setup

This article discusses a potential impact of turbulent velocity fluctuations of the air on a drizzle formation in Cumulus clouds. Two different representations of turbulent velocity fluctuations for a microphysics formulated in a Lagrangian framework are discussed - random walk model and the interpolation, and its effect on microphysical properties of the cloud investigated. Turbulent velocity fluctuations significantly enhances velocity differences between colliding droplets, especially those having small sizes. As a result drizzle forms faster in simulations including a representation of turbulence. Both representations of turbulent velocity fluctuations, random walk and interpolation, have similar effect on droplet spectrum evolution, but interpolation of the velocity does account for a possible anisotropy in the air velocity. All discussed simulations show relatively large standard deviation ($\sim$1$μm$) of the cloud droplet distribution from the onset of cloud formation is observed. Because coalesence processes aerosol inside cloud droplets, detail information about aerosol is available. Results from numerical simulations show that changes in aerosol spectrum due to aerosol processing during droplet coalescence are relatively small during $\sim$20 min. of the cloud evolution simulated with numerical model. Drizzle forms initially near the cloud edge, either near the cloud top, where the mass of water is the largest, or near the entrainment eddies.

physics.ao-ph↗