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arXiv2013

Momentum-Space Approach to Asymptotic Expansion for Stochastic Filtering

This paper develops an asymptotic expansion technique in momentum space for stochastic filtering. It is shown that Fourier transformation combined with a polynomial-function approximation of the nonlinear terms gives a closed recursive system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) for the relevant conditional distribution. Thanks to the simplicity of the ODE system, higher order calculation can be performed easily. Furthermore, solving ODEs sequentially with small sub-periods with updated initial conditions makes it possible to implement a substepping method for asymptotic expansion in a numerically efficient way. This is found to improve the performance significantly where otherwise the approximation fails badly. The method is expected to provide a useful tool for more realistic financial modeling with unobserved parameters, and also for problems involving nonlinear measure-valued processes.

q-fin.CP↗
arXiv2013

Numerical Valuation of Derivatives in High-Dimensional Settings via PDE Expansions

In this article, we propose a new numerical approach to high-dimensional partial differential equations (PDEs) arising in the valuation of exotic derivative securities. The proposed method is extended from Reisinger and Wittum (2007) and uses principal component analysis (PCA) of the underlying process in combination with a Taylor expansion of the value function into solutions to low-dimensional PDEs. The approximation is related to anchored analysis of variance (ANOVA) decompositions and is expected to be accurate whenever the covariance matrix has one or few dominating eigenvalues. A main purpose of the present article is to give a careful analysis of the numerical accuracy and computational complexity compared to state-of-the-art Monte Carlo methods on the example of Bermudan swaptions and Ratchet floors, which are considered difficult benchmark problems. We are able to demonstrate that for problems with medium to high dimensionality and moderate time horizons the presented PDE method delivers results comparable in accuracy to the MC methods considered here in similar or (often significantly) faster runtime.

q-fin.CP↗
arXiv2012

Pricing Illiquid Options with $N+1$ Liquid Proxies Using Mixed Dynamic-Static Hedging

We study the problem of optimal pricing and hedging of a European option written on an illiquid asset $Z$ using a set of proxies: a liquid asset $S$, and $N$ liquid European options $P_i$, each written on a liquid asset $Y_i, i=1,N$. We assume that the $S$-hedge is dynamic while the multi-name $Y$-hedge is static. Using the indifference pricing approach with an exponential utility, we derive a HJB equation for the value function, and build an efficient numerical algorithm. The latter is based on several changes of variables, a splitting scheme, and a set of Fast Gauss Transforms (FGT), which turns out to be more efficient in terms of complexity and lower local space error than a finite-difference method. While in this paper we apply our framework to an incomplete market version of the credit-equity Merton's model, the same approach can be used for other asset classes (equity, commodity, FX, etc.), e.g. for pricing and hedging options with illiquid strikes or illiquid exotic options.

q-fin.PR↗
arXiv2012

Sparsifying Defaults: Optimal Bailout Policies for Financial Networks in Distress

The events of the last few years revealed an acute need for tools to systematically model and analyze large financial networks. Many applications of such tools include the forecasting of systemic failures and analyzing probable effects of economic policy decisions. We consider optimizing the amount and structure of a bailout in a borrower-lender network: Given a fixed amount of cash to be injected into the system, how should it be distributed among the nodes in order to achieve the smallest overall amount of unpaid liabilities or the smallest number of nodes in default? We develop an exact algorithm for the problem of minimizing the amount of unpaid liabilities, by showing that it is equivalent to a linear program. For the problem of minimizing the number of defaults, we develop an approximate algorithm using a reweighted l1 minimization approach. We illustrate this algorithm using an example with synthetic data for which the optimal solution can be calculated exactly, and show through numerical simulation that the solutions calculated by our algorithm are close to optimal.

q-fin.CP↗
arXiv2012

Systems of Brownian particles with asymmetric collisions

We study systems of Brownian particles on the real line, which interact by splitting the local times of collisions among themselves in an asymmetric manner. We prove the strong existence and uniqueness of such processes and identify them with the collections of ordered processes in a Brownian particle system, in which the drift coefficients, the diffusion coefficients, and the collision local times for the individual particles are assigned according to their ranks. These Brownian systems can be viewed as generalizations of those arising in first-order models for equity markets in the context of stochastic portfolio theory, and are able to correct for several shortcomings of such models while being equally amenable to computations. We also show that, in addition to being of interest in their own right, such systems of Brownian particles arise as universal scaling limits of systems of jump processes on the integer lattice with local interactions. A key step in the proof is the analysis of a generalization of Skorokhod maps which include `local times' at the intersection of faces of the nonnegative orthant. The result extends the convergence of TASEP to its continuous analogue. Finally, we identify those among the Brownian particle systems which have a probabilistic structure of determinantal type.

math.PR↗
arXiv2013

Strong Convergence for Euler-Maruyama and Milstein Schemes with Asymptotic Method

Motivated by weak convergence results in the paper of Takahashi and Yoshida (2005), we show strong convergence for an accelerated Euler-Maruyama scheme applied to perturbed stochastic differential equations. The Milstein scheme with the same acceleration is also discussed as an extended result. The theoretical results can be applied to analyzing the multi-level Monte Carlo method originally developed by M.B. Giles. Several numerical experiments for the SABR stochastic volatility model are presented in order to confirm the efficiency of the schemes.

q-fin.CP↗
arXiv2012

A New Kind of Finance

Finance has benefited from the Wolfram's NKS approach but it can and will benefit even more in the future, and the gains from the influence may actually be concentrated among practitioners who unintentionally employ those principles as a group.

q-fin.CP↗
arXiv2012

The solution of discretionary stopping problems with applications to the optimal timing of investment decisions

We present a methodology for obtaining explicit solutions to infinite time horizon optimal stopping problems involving general, one-dimensional, Itô diffusions, payoff functions that need not be smooth and state-dependent discounting. This is done within a framework based on dynamic programming techniques employing variational inequalities and links to the probabilistic approaches employing $r$-excessive functions and martingale theory. The aim of this paper is to facilitate the the solution of a wide variety of problems, particularly in finance or economics.

q-fin.CP↗
arXiv2012

Characterization of Differentiable Copulas

This paper proposes a new class of copulas which characterize the set of all twice continuously differentiable copulas. We show that our proposed new class of copulas is a new generalized copula family that include not only asymmetric copulas but also all smooth copula families available in the current literature. Spearman's rho and Kendall's tau for our new Fourier copulas which are asymmetric are introduced. Furthermore, an approximation method is discussed in order to optimize Spearman's rho and the corresponding Kendall's tau.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2012

A Semi-Markov Modulated Interest Rate Model

In this paper we propose a semi-Markov modulated model of interest rates. We assume that the switching process is a semi-Markov process with finite state space E and the modulated process is a diffusive process. We derive recursive equations for the higher order moments of the discount factor and we describe a Monte Carlo al- gorithm to execute simulations. The results are specialized to classical models as those by Vasicek, Hull and White and CIR with a semi-Markov modulation.

q-fin.PR↗
arXiv2012

An introduction to particle integration methods: with applications to risk and insurance

Interacting particle methods are increasingly used to sample from complex and high-dimensional distributions. These stochastic particle integration techniques can be interpreted as an universal acceptance-rejection sequential particle sampler equipped with adaptive and interacting recycling mechanisms. Practically, the particles evolve randomly around the space independently and to each particle is associated a positive potential function. Periodically, particles with high potentials duplicate at the expense of low potential particle which die. This natural genetic type selection scheme appears in numerous applications in applied probability, physics, Bayesian statistics, signal processing, biology, and information engineering. It is the intention of this paper to introduce them to risk modeling. From a purely mathematical point of view, these stochastic samplers can be interpreted as Feynman-Kac particle integration methods. These functional models are natural mathematical extensions of the traditional change of probability measures, commonly used to design an importance sampling strategy. In this article, we provide a brief introduction to the stochastic modeling and the theoretical analysis of these particle algorithms. Then we conclude with an illustration of a subset of such methods to resolve important risk measure and capital estimation in risk and insurance modelling.

q-fin.CP↗
arXiv2012

A construction of (t,s)-sequences with finite-row generating matrices using global function fields

For any prime power $q$ and any dimension $s \ge 1$, we present a construction of $(t,s)$-sequences in base $q$ with finite-row generating matrices such that, for fixed $q$, the quality parameter $t$ is asymptotically optimal as a function of $s$ as $s \to \infty$. This is the first construction of $(t,s)$-sequences that yields finite-row generating matrices and asymptotically optimal quality parameters at the same time. The construction is based on global function fields. We put the construction into the framework of $(u,{\bf e},s)$-sequences that was recently introduced by Tezuka. In this way we obtain in many cases better discrepancy bounds for the constructed sequences than by previous methods for bounding the discrepancy.

math.NT↗
arXiv2012

High order splitting schemes with complex timesteps and their application in mathematical finance

High order splitting schemes with complex timesteps are applied to Kolmogorov backward equations stemming from stochastic differential equations in Stratonovich form. In the setting of weighted spaces, the necessary analyticity of the split semigroups can be easily proved. A numerical example from interest rate theory, the CIR2 model, is considered. The numerical results are robust for drift-dominated problems, and confirm our theoretical results.

math.NA↗
arXiv2012

Estimation of the shape parameter of a generalized Pareto distribution based on a transformation to Pareto distributed variables

Random variables of the generalized Pareto distribution, can be transformed to that of the Pareto distribution. Explicit expressions exist for the maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the Pareto distribution. The performance of the estimation of the shape parameter of generalized Pareto distributed using transformed observations, based on the probability weighted method is tested. It was found to improve the performance of the probability weighted estimator and performs good with respect to bias and MSE.

q-fin.CP↗
arXiv2018

Multilevel simulation of functionals of Bernoulli random variables with application to basket credit derivatives

We consider $N$ Bernoulli random variables, which are independent conditional on a common random factor determining their probability distribution. We show that certain expected functionals of the proportion $L_N$ of variables in a given state converge at rate $1/N$ as $N\rightarrow \infty$. Based on these results, we propose a multi-level simulation algorithm using a family of sequences with increasing length, to obtain estimators for these expected functionals with a mean-square error of $ε^2$ and computational complexity of order $ε^{-2}$, independent of $N$. In particular, this optimal complexity order also holds for the infinite-dimensional limit. Numerical examples are presented for tranche spreads of basket credit derivatives.

math.NA↗
arXiv2012

On the new central bank strategy toward monetary and financial instabilities management in finances: Econophysical analysis of nonlinear dynamical financial systems

We describe the innovations in finances, introduced over the recent decades, and analyze most of the business and regulatory challenges, faced by the financial industry, because of the present disruptive changes in the global capital markets. We use the integrative thinking approach to formulate the new central bank strategy and propose that the new strategy has to be focused on the constant management of the monetary and financial instabilities, using the knowledge base in the field of econophysics. We propose the new theoretical model of economics, which is called the Nonlinear Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (NDSGE), which takes to the account the nonlinearities, appearing during the interaction between the business cycles. We show that the central banks, which will apply the knowledge gained from the econophysical analysis to understand the complex processes in the national financial systems in the time of high volatility in global capital markets, will be able to govern the national financial systems successfully.

q-fin.GN↗
arXiv2012

On the Risk Management with Application of Econophysics Analysis in Central Banks and Financial Institutions

The purpose of this research article is to discover how the econophysics analysis can complement the econometrics models in application to the risk management in the central banks and financial institutions, operating within the nonlinear dynamical financial system. We consider the modern risk management models and show the appropriate techniques to calculate the various existing risks in the finances. We make a few comments on the possible limitations in the models of statistical modeling of volatility such as the Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, because of the nonlinearities appearance in the nonlinear dynamical financial systems. We propose that the various types of nonlinearities, which can originate in the financial and economical systems, have to be taken to the detailed consideration during the Cost of Capital calculation in the finances and economics. We propose the new theory of nonlinear dynamic volatilities and the new nonlinear dynamic chaos (NDC) volatility model for the statistical modeling of financial volatility with the aim to determine the Value at Risk.

q-fin.GN↗