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arXiv2012

ConocoPhillips' share price model revisited

Three years ago we found a statistically reliable link between ConocoPhillips' (NYSE: COP) stock price and the difference between the core and headline CPI in the United States. In this article, the original relationship is revisited with new data available since 2009. The agreement between the observed monthly closing price (adjusted for dividends and splits) and that predicted from the CPI difference is confirmed. The original quantitative link is validated. In order to improve the accuracy of the COP price prediction a series of advanced models is developed. The original set of two major CPIs is extended by smaller components of the headline CPIs (e.g. the CPIs of motor fuel and housing energy) and several PPIs (e.g. the PPIs of crude oil and coal) which may be inherently related to ConocoPhillips and other energy companies. These advanced models have demonstrated much lower modeling errors with better statistical properties. The earlier reported quasi-linear trend in the CPI difference is also revisited. This trend allows for an accurate prediction of the COP prices at a five to ten year horizon.

q-fin.GN↗
arXiv2012

The monetary growth order

Growth of monetary assets and debts is commonly described by the formula of compound interest which for the case of continuous compounding is the exponential growth law. Its differential form is dc/dt = i c where dc/dt describes the rate of monetary growth, i the compounded interest rate and c the actual principal. Exponential growth of this type is fixed to be neither resource-limited nor self-limiting which is in contrast to real economic growth (such as the GDP) which may have exponential, but also subexponential, linear, saturation, and even decline phases. As a result assets and debts commonly outgrow their economic fundament giving rise to the financial equivalent of Malthusian catastrophes after a certain interval of time. We here introduce an alternative for exponential compounding and propose to replace dc/dt = i c by dc/dt = i c^p where the exponent p (called reaction order in chemistry) is a quantity which will be termed monetary growth order. The monetary growth order p is seen as a tuning handle which enables to adjust gross monetary growth to real economic growth. It is suggested that the central banks take a serious look to this control instrument which allows tuning in crisis situations and immediate return to the exponential norm if needed.

q-fin.GN↗
arXiv2012

Modelling the emergence of spatial patterns of economic activity

Understanding how spatial configurations of economic activity emerge is important when formulating spatial planning and economic policy. A simple model was proposed by Simon, who assumed that firms grow at a rate proportional to their size, and that new divisions of firms with certain probabilities relocate to other firms or to new centres of economic activity. Simon's model produces realistic results in the sense that the sizes of economic centres follow a Zipf distribution, which is also observed in reality. It lacks realism in the sense that mechanisms such as cluster formation, congestion (defined as an overly high density of the same activities) and dependence on the spatial distribution of external parties (clients, labour markets) are ignored. The present paper proposed an extension of the Simon model that includes both centripetal and centrifugal forces. Centripetal forces are included in the sense that firm divisions are more likely to settle in locations that offer a higher accessibility to other firms. Centrifugal forces are represented by an aversion of a too high density of activities in the potential location. The model is implemented as an agent-based simulation model in a simplified spatial setting. By running both the Simon model and the extended model, comparisons are made with respect to their effects on spatial configurations. To this end a series of metrics are used, including the rank-size distribution and indices of the degree of clustering and concentration.

cs.MA↗
arXiv2013

Exponential Lévy-type models with stochastic volatility and stochastic jump-intensity

We consider the problem of valuing a European option written on an asset whose dynamics are described by an exponential Lévy-type model. In our framework, both the volatility and jump-intensity are allowed to vary stochastically in time through common driving factors -- one fast-varying and one slow-varying. Using Fourier analysis we derive an explicit formula for the approximate price of any European-style derivative whose payoff has a generalized Fourier transform; in particular, this includes European calls and puts. From a theoretical perspective, our results extend the class of multiscale stochastic volatility models of \citet*{fpss} to models of the exponential Lévy type. From a financial perspective, the inclusion of jumps and stochastic volatility allow us to capture the term-structure of implied volatility. To illustrate the flexibility of our modeling framework we extend five exponential Lévy processes to include stochastic volatility and jump-intensity. For each of the extended models, using a single fast-varying factor of volatility and jump-intensity, we perform a calibration to the S&P500 implied volatility surface. Our results show decisively that the extended framework provides a significantly better fit to implied volatility than both the traditional exponential Lévy models and the fast mean-reverting stochastic volatility models of \citet{fpss}.

q-fin.PR↗
arXiv2012

Tobit Bayesian Model Averaging and the Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment

We develop a fully Bayesian, computationally efficient framework for incorporating model uncertainty into Type II Tobit models and apply this to the investigation of the determinants of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). While direct evaluation of modelprobabilities is intractable in this setting, we show that by using conditional Bayes Factors, which nest model moves inside a Gibbs sampler, we are able to incorporate model uncertainty in a straight-forward fashion. We conclude with a study of global FDI flows between 1988-2000.

stat.AP↗
arXiv2012

Impact of the economic crisis on the Italian public healthcare expenditure

The global financial crisis, beginning in 2008, took an historic toll on national economies around the world. Following equity market crashes, unemployment rates rose significantly in many countries: Italy was among those. What will be the impact of such large shocks on Italian healthcare finances? An empirical model for estimating the impact of the crisis on Italian public healthcare expenditure is presented. Based on data from epidemiological studies related to past economic crisis, the financial impact is estimated to be comparable to the healthcare deficit of Italian Regions (EUR 3-5 bn). According to current agreements between the Italian State and its Regions, public funding of regional National Health Services (NHSs) is limited to the amount of regional deficit and is subject to previous assessment of strict adherence to constraint on regional healthcare balance-sheet. Those Regions that will fail to comply to balance-sheet constraints will suffer cuts on their public NHS financing with foreseeable bad consequences for the health of their regional population. The current crisis could be a good timing for a large-scale re-engineering of the Italian NHS, probably the only way for self-sustainability of the public system.

q-fin.GN↗
arXiv2012

Global Green Economy and Environmental Sustainability: a Coopetitive Model

This paper provides a coopetitive model for a global green economy, taking into account the environmental sustainability. In particular, we propose a differentiable coopetitive game G (in the sense recently introduced by D. Carf`ı) to represent a global green economy interaction, among a country c and the rest of the world w. Our game G is a linear parametric (Euclidean) perturbation of the classic Cournot duopoly. In the paper we offer the complete study of the proposed model and in particular a deep examination of its possible coopetitive solutions.

q-fin.GN↗
arXiv2012

Asymmetric R&D Alliances and Coopetitive Games

In this paper we show how the study of asymmetric R&D alliances, that are those between young and small firms and large and MNEs firms for knowledge exploration and/or exploitation, requires the adoption of a coopetitive framework which consider both collaboration and competition. We draw upon the literature on asymmetric R&D collaboration and coopetition to propose a mathematical model for the coopetitive games which is particularly suitable for exploring asymmetric R&D alliances.

q-fin.GN↗
arXiv2012

Towards a new brain science: lessons from the economic collapse

Economies are complex man-made systems where organisms and markets interact according to motivations and principles not entirely understood yet. The increasing dissatisfaction with the postulates of traditional economics i.e. perfectly rational agents, interacting through efficient markets in the search of equilibrium, has created new incentives for different approaches in economics. The science of complexity may provide the platform to cross disciplinary boundaries in seemingly disparate fields such as brain science and economics. In this paper we take an integrative stance, fostering new insights into the economic character of neural activity. The objective here is to precisely delineate common topics in both neural and economic science, within a systemic outlook grounded in empirical basis that jolts the unification across the science of complex systems. It is argued that this mainly relies on the study of the inverse problem in complex system with a truly Bayesian approach.

nlin.AO↗
arXiv2012

Pricing options on illiquid assets with liquid proxies using utility indifference and dynamic-static hedging

This work addresses the problem of optimal pricing and hedging of a European option on an illiquid asset Z using two proxies: a liquid asset S and a liquid European option on another liquid asset Y. We assume that the S-hedge is dynamic while the Y-hedge is static. Using the indifference pricing approach we derive a HJB equation for the value function, and solve it analytically (in quadratures) using an asymptotic expansion around the limit of the perfect correlation between assets Y and Z. While in this paper we apply our framework to an incomplete market version of the credit-equity Merton's model, the same approach can be used for other asset classes (equity, commodity, FX, etc.), e.g. for pricing and hedging options with illiquid strikes or illiquid exotic options.

q-fin.PR↗
arXiv2012

Restructuring the Italian NHS: a case study of the regional hospital network

One of the main issues affecting the Italian NHS is the healthcare deficit: according to current agreements between the Italian State and its Regions, public funding of regional NHS is now limited to the amount of regional deficit and is subject to previous assessment of strict adherence to constraint on regional healthcare balance sheet. Many Regions with previously uncontrolled healthcare deficit have now to plan their "Piano di Rientro" (PdR) and submit it for the approval of the Italian Ministry of Economy and Finances. Those Regions that will fail to comply to deficit constraints will suffer cuts on their public NHS financing. A smart Health Planning can make sure health spending is managed appropriately. Indeed a restructuring of the Italian healthcare system has recently been enforced in order to cope for the clumsy regional healthcare balance sheets. Half of total Italian healthcare expenditure is accounted by hospital services which therefore configure as one of the main restructuring targets. This paper provides a general framework for planning a re-engineering of a hospital network. This framework is made of economic, legal and healthcare constraints. We apply the general framework to the particular case of Puglia region and explore a set of re-engineered solutions which to different extent could help solve the difficult dilemma: cutting costs without worsening the delivery of public healthcare services.

q-fin.GN↗
arXiv2012

Structural Hamiltonian of the international trade network

It is common wisdom that no nation is an isolated economic island. All nations participate in the global economy and are linked together through trade and finance. Here we analyze international trade network (ITN), being the network of import-export relationships between countries. We show that in each year over the analyzed period of 50 years (since 1950) the network is a typical representative of the ensemble of maximally random networks. Structural Hamiltonians characterizing binary and weighted versions of ITN are formulated and discussed. In particular, given binary representation of ITN (i.e. binary network of trade channels) we show that the network of partnership in trade is well described by the configuration model. We also show that in the weighted version of ITN, bilateral trade volumes (i.e. directed connections which represent trade/money flows between countries) are only characterized by the product of the trading countries' GDPs, like in the famous gravity model of trade.

q-fin.GN↗
arXiv2012

Real GDP per capita since 1870

The growth rate of real GDP per capita in the biggest OECD countries is represented as a sum of two components - a steadily decreasing trend and fluctuations related to the change in some specific age population. The long term trend in the growth rate is modelled by an inverse function of real GDP per capita with a constant numerator. This numerator is equivalent to a constant annual increment of real GDP per capita. For the most advanced economies, the GDP estimates between 1950 and 2007 have shown very weak and statistically insignificant linear trends (both positive and negative) in the annual increment. The fluctuations around relevant mean increments are characterized by practically normal distribution. For many countries, there exist historical estimates of real GDP since 1870. These estimates extend the time span of our analysis together with a few new estimates from 2008 to 2011. There are severe structural breaks in the corresponding time series between 1940 and 1950, with the slope of linear regression increasing by a factor of 4.0 (Switzerland) to 22.1 (Spain). Therefore, the GDP estimates before 1940 and after 1950 have been analysed separately. All findings of the original study are validated by the newly available data. The most important is that all slopes (except that for Australia after 1950) of the regression lines obtained for the annual increments of real GDP per capita are small and statistically insignificant, i.e. one cannot reject the null hypothesis of a zero slope and thus constant increment. Hence the growth in real GDP per capita is a linear one since 1870 with a break in slope between 1940 and 1950.

q-fin.GN↗
arXiv2012

Toward A Normative Theory of Normative Marketing Theory

We show how different approaches to developing marketing strategies depending on the type of environment a firm faces, where environments are distinguished in terms of their systems properties not their context. Particular emphasis is given to turbulent environments in which outcomes are not a priori predictable and are not traceable to individual firm actions and we show that, in these conditions, the relevant unit of competitive response and understanding is no longer the individual firm but the network of relations comprising interdependent, interacting firms. Networks of relations are complex adaptive systems that are more 'intelligent' than the individual firms that comprise them and are capable of comprehending and responding to more complex and turbulent environments. Yet they are co-produced by the patterns of actions and interactions of the firms involved. The creation and accessing of such distributed intelligence cannot be centrally directed, as this necessarily limits it. Instead managers and firms are involved in a kind of participatory planning and adaptation process through which the network self-organises and adapts. Drawing on research in systems theory, complexity, biology and cognitive science, extensions to the resource-based theory of the firm are proposed that include how resources are linked across relations and network in a dynamic and evolutionary way. The concept of an extended firm and soft assembled strategies are introduced to describe the nature of the strategy development process. This results in a more theoretically grounded basis for understanding the nature and role of relationship and network strategies in marketing and management. We finish by considering the research implications of our analysis and the role of agent based models as a means of sensitising and informing management action.

q-fin.GN↗
arXiv2013

No-Arbitrage Pricing for Dividend-Paying Securities in Discrete-Time Markets with Transaction Costs

We prove a version of First Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing under transaction costs for discrete-time markets with dividend-paying securities. Specifically, we show that the no-arbitrage condition under the efficient friction assumption is equivalent to the existence of a risk-neutral measure. We derive dual representations for the superhedging ask and subhedging bid price processes of a derivative contract. Our results are illustrated with a vanilla credit default swap contract.

q-fin.GN↗
arXiv2016

The Effect of Market Power on Risk-Sharing

The paper studies an oligopolistic equilibrium model of financial agents who aim to share their random endowments. The risk-sharing securities and their prices are endogenously determined as the outcome of a strategic game played among all the participating agents. In the complete-market setting, each agent's set of strategic choices consists of the security payoffs and the pricing kernel that are consistent with the optimal-sharing rules; while in the incomplete setting, agents respond via demand functions on a vector of given tradeable securities. It is shown that at the (Nash) risk-sharing equilibrium, the sharing securities are suboptimal, since agents submit for sharing different risk exposures than their true endowments. On the other hand, the Nash equilibrium prices stay unaffected by the game only in the special case of agents with the same risk aversion. In addition, agents with sufficiently lower risk aversion act as predatory traders, since they absorb utility surplus from the high risk averse agents and reduce the efficiency of sharing. The main results of the paper also hold under the generalized models that allow the presence of noise traders and heterogeneity in agents' beliefs.

q-fin.GN↗
arXiv2012

Why price inflation in developed countries is systematically underestimated

There is an extensive historical dataset on real GDP per capita prepared by Angus Maddison. This dataset covers the period since 1870 with continuous annual estimates in developed countries. All time series for individual economies have a clear structural break between 1940 and 1950. The behavior before 1940 and after 1950 can be accurately (R2 from 0.7 to 0.99) approximated by linear time trends. The corresponding slopes of regressions lines before and after the break differ by a factor of 4 (Switzerland) to 19 (Spain). We have extrapolated the early trends into the second interval and obtained much lower estimates of real GDP per capita in 2011: from 2.4 (Switzerland) to 5.0 (Japan) times smaller than the current levels. When the current linear trends are extrapolated into the past, they intercept the zero line between 1908 (Switzerland) and 1944 (Japan). There is likely an internal conflict between the estimating procedures before 1940 and after 1950. A reasonable explanation of the discrepancy is that the GDP deflator in developed countries has been highly underestimated since 1950. In the USA, the GDP deflator is underestimated by a factor of 1.4. This is exactly the ratio of the interest rate controlled by the Federal Reserve and the rate of inflation. Hence, the Federal Reserve actually retains its interest rate at the level of true price inflation when corrected for the bias in the GDP deflator.

q-fin.GN↗