SEARCH · Searcharxiv

Results for “q-fin.RM”

Search indexed arXiv papers on artificial intelligence, large language models, computer vision and robotics. Read source abstracts and follow links to arXiv.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 361 records · Page 20Linked to original sources

arXiv2013

Planning Optimal From the Firm Value Creation Perspective Levels of Operating Cash Investments

The basic financial purpose of corporation is creation of its value. Liquidity management should also contribute to realization of this fundamental aim. Many of the current asset management models that are found in financial management literature assume book profit maximization as the basic financial purpose. These book profit based models could be lacking in what relates to another aim like maximization of enterprise value. The corporate value creation strategy is executed with a focus on risk and uncertainty. Firms hold cash for a variety of reasons. Generally, cash balances held in a firm can be called considered, precautionary, speculative, transactional and intentional. The first are the result of management anxieties. Managers fear the negative part of the risk and hold cash to hedge against it. Second, cash balances are held to use chances that are created by the positive part of the risk equation. Next, cash balances are the result of the operating needs of the firm. In this article, we analyze the relation between these types of cash balances and risk. This article presents the discussion about relations between firm net working investment policy and as result operating cash balances and firm value. This article also contains propositions for marking levels of precautionary cash balances and speculative cash balances. Application of these propositions should help managers to make better decisions to maximize the value of a firm.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2013

Polish and Silesian Non-Profit Organizations Liquidity Strategies

The kind of realized mission inflows the sensitivity to risk. Among other factors, the risk results from decision about liquid assets investment level and liquid assets financing. The higher the risk exposure, the higher the level of liquid assets. If the specific risk exposure is smaller, the more aggressive could be the net liquid assets strategy. The organization choosing between various solutions in liquid assets needs to decide what level of risk is acceptable for her owners (or donors) and / or capital suppliers. The paper shows how, in authors opinion, decisions, about liquid assets management strategy inflow the risk of the organizations and its economical results during realization of main mission. Comparison of theoretical model with empirical data for over 450 Silesian nonprofit organization results suggests that nonprofit organization managing teams choose more risky aggressive liquid assets solutions than for-profit firms.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2013

Measuring Model Risk

We propose to interpret distribution model risk as sensitivity of expected loss to changes in the risk factor distribution, and to measure the distribution model risk of a portfolio by the maximum expected loss over a set of plausible distributions defined in terms of some divergence from an estimated distribution. The divergence may be relative entropy, a Bregman distance, or an $f$-divergence. We give formulas for the calculation of distribution model risk and explicitly determine the worst case distribution from the set of plausible distributions. We also give formulas for the evaluation of divergence preferences describing ambiguity averse decision makers.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2013

DVA for Assets

The effect of self-default on the valuation of liabilities and derivatives (DVA) has been widely discussed but the effect on assets has not received similar attention. Any asset whose value depends on the status, or existence, of the firm will have a DVA. We extend (Burgard and Kjaer 2011) to provide a hedging strategy for such assets and provide an in-depth example from the balance sheet (Goodwill). We calibrate our model to seven US banks over the crisis period of mid-2007 to 2011. This suggests that their reported profits would have changed significantly if DVA on assets, as well as liabilities, was included - unless the DVA was hedged.

q-fin.PR↗

arXiv2014

Suitability of Capital Allocations for Performance Measurement

Capital allocation principles are used in various contexts in which a risk capital or a cost of an aggregate position has to be allocated among its constituent parts. We study capital allocation principles in a performance measurement framework. We introduce the notation of suitability of allocations for performance measurement and show under different assumptions on the involved reward and risk measures that there exist suitable allocation methods. The existence of certain suitable allocation principles generally is given under rather strict assumptions on the underlying risk measure. Therefore we show, with a reformulated definition of suitability and in a slightly modified setting, that there is a known suitable allocation principle that does not require any properties of the underlying risk measure. Additionally we extend a previous characterization result from the literature from a mean-risk to a reward-risk setting. Formulations of this theory are also possible in a game theoretic setting.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2013

Ecosystems perspective on financial networks: diagnostic tools

The economical world consists of a highly interconnected and interdependent network of firms. Here we develop temporal and structural network tools to analyze the state of the economy. Our analysis indicates that a strong clustering can be a warning sign. Reduction in diversity, which was an essential aspect of the dynamics surrounding the crash in 2008, is seen as a key emergent feature arising naturally from the evolutionary and adaptive dynamics inherent to the financial markets. Similarly, collusion amongst construction firms in a number of regions in Japan in the 2000s can be identified with the formation of clusters of anomalous highly connected companies.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2014

Leverage-induced systemic risk under Basle II and other credit risk policies

We use a simple agent based model of value investors in financial markets to test three credit regulation policies. The first is the unregulated case, which only imposes limits on maximum leverage. The second is Basle II and the third is a hypothetical alternative in which banks perfectly hedge all of their leverage-induced risk with options. When compared to the unregulated case both Basle II and the perfect hedge policy reduce the risk of default when leverage is low but increase it when leverage is high. This is because both regulation policies increase the amount of synchronized buying and selling needed to achieve deleveraging, which can destabilize the market. None of these policies are optimal for everyone: Risk neutral investors prefer the unregulated case with low maximum leverage, banks prefer the perfect hedge policy, and fund managers prefer the unregulated case with high maximum leverage. No one prefers Basle II.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2013

DebtRank-transparency: Controlling systemic risk in financial networks

Banks in the interbank network can not assess the true risks associated with lending to other banks in the network, unless they have full information on the riskiness of all the other banks. These risks can be estimated by using network metrics (for example DebtRank) of the interbank liability network which is available to Central Banks. With a simple agent based model we show that by increasing transparency by making the DebtRank of individual nodes (banks) visible to all nodes, and by imposing a simple incentive scheme, that reduces interbank borrowing from systemically risky nodes, the systemic risk in the financial network can be drastically reduced. This incentive scheme is an effective regulation mechanism, that does not reduce the efficiency of the financial network, but fosters a more homogeneous distribution of risk within the system in a self-organized critical way. We show that the reduction of systemic risk is to a large extent due to the massive reduction of cascading failures in the transparent system. An implementation of this minimal regulation scheme in real financial networks should be feasible from a technical point of view.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2013

Markets Evolution After the Credit Crunch

We review the main changes in the interbank market after the financial crisis started in August 2007. In particular, we focus on the fixed income market and we analyse the most relevant empirical evidences regarding the divergence of the existing basis between interbank rates with different tenor, such as Libor and OIS. We also discuss a qualitative explanation of these effects based on the consideration of credit and liquidity variables. Then, we focus our attention on the diffusion of collateral agreements among OTC derivatives market counterparties, and on the consequent change of paradigm for pricing derivatives. We illustrate the main qualitative features of the new market practice, called CSA discounting, and we point out the most relevant issues for market players associated to its adoption.

q-fin.PR↗

arXiv2013

Efficient Importance Sampling for Rare Event Simulation with Applications

Importance sampling has been known as a powerful tool to reduce the variance of Monte Carlo estimator for rare event simulation. Based on the criterion of minimizing the variance of Monte Carlo estimator within a parametric family, we propose a general account for finding the optimal tilting measure. To this end, when the moment generating function of the underlying distribution exists, we obtain a simple and explicit expression of the optimal alternative distribution. The proposed algorithm is quite general to cover many interesting examples, such as normal distribution, noncentral $χ^2$ distribution, and compound Poisson processes. To illustrate the broad applicability of our method, we study value-at-risk (VaR) computation in financial risk management and bootstrap confidence regions in statistical inferences.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2013

Pricing Corporate Defaultable Bond using Declared Firm Value

We study the pricing problem for corporate defaultable bond from the viewpoint of the investors outside the firm that could not exactly know about the information of the firm. We consider the problem for pricing of corporate defaultable bond in the case when the firm value is only declared in some fixed discrete time and unexpected default intensity is determined by the declared firm value. Here we provide a partial differential equation model for such a defaultable bond and give its pricing formula. Our pricing model is derived to solving problems of partial differential equations with random constants (de- fault intensity) and terminal values of binary types. Our main method is to use the solving method of a partial differential equation with a random constant in every subinterval and to take expectation to remove the random constants.

q-fin.PR↗

arXiv2013

Collateral-Enhanced Default Risk

Changes in collateralization have been implicated in significant default (or near-default) events during the financial crisis, most notably with AIG. We have developed a framework for quantifying this effect based on moving between Merton-type and Black-Cox-type structural default models. Our framework leads to a single equation that emcompasses the range of possibilities, including collateralization remargining frequency (i.e. discrete observations). We show that increases in collateralization, by exposing entities to daily mark-to-market volatility, enhance default probability. This quantifies the well-known problem with collateral triggers. Furthermore our model can be used to quantify the degree to which central counterparties, whilst removing credit risk transmission, systematically increase default risk.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2014

Rationalizing Investors Choice

Assuming that agents' preferences satisfy first-order stochastic dominance, we show how the Expected Utility paradigm can rationalize all optimal investment choices: the optimal investment strategy in any behavioral law-invariant (state-independent) setting corresponds to the optimum for an expected utility maximizer with an explicitly derived concave non-decreasing utility function. This result enables us to infer the utility and risk aversion of agents from their investment choice in a non-parametric way. We relate the property of decreasing absolute risk aversion (DARA) to distributional properties of the terminal wealth and of the financial market. Specifically, we show that DARA is equivalent to a demand for a terminal wealth that has more spread than the opposite of the log pricing kernel at the investment horizon.

q-fin.PM↗

arXiv2013

A new approach for an unitary risk theory

The work deals with the risk assessment theory. An unitary risk algorithm is elaborated. The algorithm is based on parallel curves. The basic curve of risk is a hyperbolic curve, obtained as a multiplication between the probability of occurrence of certain event and its impact. Section 1 contains the problem formulation. Section 2 contains some specific notations and the mathematical background of risk algorithm. A numerical application based on risk algorithm is the content of section 3. Section 4 contains several conclusions.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2014

Coherence and elicitability

The risk of a financial position is usually summarized by a risk measure. As this risk measure has to be estimated from historical data, it is important to be able to verify and compare competing estimation procedures. In statistical decision theory, risk measures for which such verification and comparison is possible, are called elicitable. It is known that quantile based risk measures such as value at risk are elicitable. In this paper we show that law-invariant spectral risk measures such as expected shortfall are not elicitable unless they reduce to minus the expected value. Hence, it is unclear how to perform forecast verification or comparison. However, the class of elicitable law-invariant coherent risk measures does not reduce to minus the expected value. We show that it consists of certain expectiles.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2013

Understanding Operational Risk Capital Approximations: First and Second Orders

We set the context for capital approximation within the framework of the Basel II / III regulatory capital accords. This is particularly topical as the Basel III accord is shortly due to take effect. In this regard, we provide a summary of the role of capital adequacy in the new accord, highlighting along the way the significant loss events that have been attributed to the Operational Risk class that was introduced in the Basel II and III accords. Then we provide a semi-tutorial discussion on the modelling aspects of capital estimation under a Loss Distributional Approach (LDA). Our emphasis is to focus on the important loss processes with regard to those that contribute most to capital, the so called high consequence, low frequency loss processes. This leads us to provide a tutorial overview of heavy tailed loss process modelling in OpRisk under Basel III, with discussion on the implications of such tail assumptions for the severity model in an LDA structure. This provides practitioners with a clear understanding of the features that they may wish to consider when developing OpRisk severity models in practice. From this discussion on heavy tailed severity models, we then develop an understanding of the impact such models have on the right tail asymptotics of the compound loss process and we provide detailed presentation of what are known as first and second order tail approximations for the resulting heavy tailed loss process. From this we develop a tutorial on three key families of risk measures and their equivalent second order asymptotic approximations: Value-at-Risk (Basel III industry standard); Expected Shortfall (ES) and the Spectral Risk Measure. These then form the capital approximations.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2013

Quantifying the Impact of Leveraging and Diversification on Systemic Risk

Excessive leverage, i.e. the abuse of debt financing, is considered one of the primary factors in the default of financial institutions. Systemic risk results from correlations between individual default probabilities that cannot be considered independent. Based on the structural framework by Merton (1974), we discuss a model in which these correlations arise from overlaps in banks' portfolios. Portfolio diversification is used as a strategy to mitigate losses from investments in risky projects. We calculate an optimal level of diversification that has to be reached for a given level of excessive leverage to still mitigate an increase in systemic risk. In our model, this optimal diversification further depends on the market size and the market conditions (e.g. volatility). It allows to distinguish between a safe regime, in which excessive leverage does not result in an increase of systemic risk, and a risky regime, in which excessive leverage cannot be mitigated leading to an increased systemic risk. Our results are of relevance for financial regulators.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2013

Premiums And Reserves, Adjusted By Distortions

The net-premium principle is considered to be the most genuine and fair premium principle in actuarial applications. However, an insurance company, applying the net-premium principle, goes bankrupt with probability one in the long run, even if the company covers its entire costs by collecting the respective fees from its customers. It is therefore an intrinsic necessity for the insurance industry to apply premium principles, which guarantee at least further existence of the company itself; otherwise, the company naturally could not insure its clients to cover their potential, future claims. Beside this intriguing fact the underlying loss distribution typically is not known precisely. Hence alternative premium principles have been developed. A simple principle, ensuring risk-adjusted credibility premiums, is the distorted premium principle. This principle is convenient in insurance companies, as the actuary does not have to change his or her tools to compute the premiums or reserves. This paper addresses the distorted premium principle from various angles. First, dual characterizations are developed. Next, distorted premiums are typically computed by under-weighting or ignoring low, but over-weighting high losses. It is demonstrated here that there is an alternative, opposite point of view, which consists in leaving the probability measure unchanged, but increasing the outcomes instead. It turns out that this new point of view is natural in actuarial practice, as it can be used for premium calculations, as well as to determine the reserves of subsequent years in a time consistent way.

q-fin.RM↗