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Recursive utility maximization under partial information

This paper concerns the recursive utility maximization problem under partial information. We first transform our problem under partial information into the one under full information. When the generator of the recursive utility is concave, we adopt the variational formulation of the recursive utility which leads to a stochastic game problem and a characterization of the saddle point of the game is obtained. Then, we study the K-ignorance case and explicit saddle points of several examples are obtained. At last, when the generator of the recursive utility is smooth, we employ the terminal perturbation method to characterize the optimal terminal wealth.

q-fin.MF↗

Exponentially concave functions and a new information geometry

A function is exponentially concave if its exponential is concave. We consider exponentially concave functions on the unit simplex. In a previous paper we showed that gradient maps of exponentially concave functions provide solutions to a Monge-Kantorovich optimal transport problem and give a better gradient approximation than those of ordinary concave functions. The approximation error, called L-divergence, is different from the usual Bregman divergence. Using tools of information geometry and optimal transport, we show that L-divergence induces a new information geometry on the simplex consisting of a Riemannian metric and a pair of dually coupled affine connections which defines two kinds of geodesics. We show that the induced geometry is dually projectively flat but not flat. Nevertheless, we prove an analogue of the celebrated generalized Pythagorean theorem from classical information geometry. On the other hand, we consider displacement interpolation under a Lagrangian integral action that is consistent with the optimal transport problem and show that the action minimizing curves are dual geodesics. The Pythagorean theorem is also shown to have an interesting application of determining the optimal trading frequency in stochastic portfolio theory.

math.PR↗

Hedging with Small Uncertainty Aversion

We study the pricing and hedging of derivative securities with uncertainty about the volatility of the underlying asset. Rather than taking all models from a prespecified class equally seriously, we penalise less plausible ones based on their "distance" to a reference local volatility model. In the limit for small uncertainty aversion, this leads to explicit formulas for prices and hedging strategies in terms of the security's cash gamma.

q-fin.MF↗

Linear Credit Risk Models

We introduce a novel class of credit risk models in which the drift of the survival process of a firm is a linear function of the factors. The prices of defaultable bonds and credit default swaps (CDS) are linear-rational in the factors. The price of a CDS option can be uniformly approximated by polynomials in the factors. Multi-name models can produce simultaneous defaults, generate positively as well as negatively correlated default intensities, and accommodate stochastic interest rates. A calibration study illustrates the versatility of these models by fitting CDS spread time series. A numerical analysis validates the efficiency of the option price approximation method.

q-fin.MF↗

Generalized Subjective Lexicographic Expected Utility Representation

We provide foundations for decisions in face of unlikely events by extending the standard framework of Savage to include preferences indexed by a family of events. We derive a subjective lexicographic expected utility representation which allows for infinitely many lexicographically ordered levels of events and for event-dependent attitudes toward risk. Our model thus provides foundations for models in finance that rely on different attitudes toward risk (e.g. Skiadas [9]) and for off-equilibrium reasonings in infinite dynamic games, thus extending and generalizing the analysis in Blume, Brandenburger and Dekel [3].

math.ST↗

A Mean Field Game of Optimal Stopping

We formulate a stochastic game of mean field type where the agents solve optimal stopping problems and interact through the proportion of players that have already stopped. Working with a continuum of agents, typical equilibria become functions of the common noise that all agents are exposed to, whereas idiosyncratic randomness can be eliminated by an Exact Law of Large Numbers. Under a structural monotonicity assumption, we can identify equilibria with solutions of a simple equation involving the distribution function of the idiosyncratic noise. Solvable examples allow us to gain insight into the uniqueness of equilibria and the dynamics in the population.

math.OC↗

The space of outcomes of semi-static trading strategies need not be closed

Semi-static trading strategies make frequent appearances in mathematical finance, where dynamic trading in a liquid asset is combined with static buy-and-hold positions in options on that asset. We show that the space of outcomes of such strategies can have very poor closure properties when all European options for a fixed date $T$ are available for static trading. This causes problems for optimal investment, and stands in sharp contrast to the purely dynamic case classically considered in mathematical finance.

q-fin.MF↗

The Zero-Coupon Rate Model for Derivatives Pricing

The aim of this paper is to present a dual-term structure model of interest rate derivatives in order to solve the two hardest problems in financial modeling: the exact volatility calibration of the entire swaption matrix, and the calculation of bucket vegas for structured products. The model takes a series of long-term zero-coupon rates as basic state variables that are driven directly by one or more Brownian motion. The model volatility is assigned in a matrix form with two terms. A numerical scheme for implementing the model has been developed in the paper. At the end, several examples have been given for the model calibration, the structured products pricing and the calculation of bucket vegas.

q-fin.PR↗

Optimal Resource Extraction in Regime Switching Lévy Markets

This paper studies the problem of optimally extracting nonrenewable natural resource in light of various financial and economic restrictions and constraints. Taking into account the fact that the market values of the main natural resources i.e. oil, natural gas, copper,...,etc, fluctuate randomly following global and seasonal macroeconomic parameters, these values are modeled using Markov switching Lévy processes. We formulate this problem as finite-time horizon combined optimal stopping and optimal control problem. We prove that the value function is the unique viscosity solution of the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations. Moreover, we prove the convergence of a finite difference approximation of the value function. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate these results.

q-fin.MF↗

Exact Smooth Term-Structure Estimation

We present a non-parametric method to estimate the discount curve from market quotes based on the Moore-Penrose pseudoinverse. The discount curve reproduces the market quotes perfectly, has maximal smoothness, and is given in closed-form. The method is easy to implement and requires only basic linear algebra operations. We provide a full theoretical framework as well as several practical applications.

q-fin.MF↗

The Sound of Silence: equilibrium filtering and optimal censoring in financial markets

Following the approach of standard filtering theory, we analyse investor-valuation of firms, when these are modelled as geometric-Brownian state processes that are privately and partially observed, at random (Poisson) times, by agents. Tasked with disclosing forecast values, agents are able purposefully to withhold their observations; explicit filtering formulas are derived for downgrading the valuations in the absence of disclosures. The analysis is conducted for both a solitary firm and m co-dependent firms.

q-fin.MF↗

Solving Backward Stochastic Differential Equations with quadratic-growth drivers by Connecting the Short-term Expansions

This article proposes a new approximation scheme for quadratic-growth BSDEs in a Markovian setting by connecting a series of semi-analytic asymptotic expansions applied to short-time intervals. Although there remains a condition which needs to be checked a posteriori, one can avoid altogether time-consuming Monte Carlo simulation and other numerical integrations for estimating conditional expectations at each space-time node. Numerical examples of quadratic-growth as well as Lipschitz BSDEs suggest that the scheme works well even for large quadratic coefficients, and a fortiori for large Lipschitz constants.

q-fin.CP↗

Explicit solutions for continuous time mean-variance portfolio selection with nonlinear wealth equations

This paper concerns the continuous time mean-variance portfolio selection problem with a special nonlinear wealth equation. This nonlinear wealth equation has a nonsmooth coefficient and the dual method developed in [6] does not work. We invoke the HJB equation of this problem and give an explicit viscosity solution of the HJB equation. Furthermore, via this explicit viscosity solution, we obtain explicitly the efficient portfolio strategy and efficient frontier for this problem. Finally, we show that our nonlinear wealth equation can cover three important cases.

q-fin.MF↗

A new decomposition of portfolio return

For a functionally generated portfolio, there is a natural decomposition of the relative log-return into the log-change in the generating function and a drift process. In this note, this decomposition is extended to arbitrary stock portfolios by an application of Fisk-Stratonovich integration. With the extended methodology, the generating function is represented by a structural process, and the drift process is subsumed into a trading process that measures the profit and loss to the portfolio from trading.

q-fin.MF↗

Stock Market Insider Trading in Continuous Time with Imperfect Dynamic Information

This paper studies the equilibrium pricing of asset shares in the presence of dynamic private information. The market consists of a risk-neutral informed agent who observes the firm value, noise traders, and competitive market makers who set share prices using the total order flow as a noisy signal of the insider's information. I provide a characterization of all optimal strategies, and prove existence of both Markovian and non Markovian equilibria by deriving closed form solutions for the optimal order process of the informed trader and the optimal pricing rule of the market maker. The consideration of non Markovian equilibrium is relevant since the market maker might decide to re-weight past information after receiving a new signal. Also, I show that a) there is a unique Markovian equilibrium price process which allows the insider to trade undetected, and that b) the presence of an insider increases the market informational efficiency, in particular for times close to dividend payment.

q-fin.MF↗

Existence of a calibrated regime switching local volatility model and new fake Brownian motions

By Gyongy's theorem, a local and stochastic volatility (LSV) model is calibrated to the market prices of all European call options with positive maturities and strikes if its local volatility function is equal to the ratio of the Dupire local volatility function over the root conditional mean square of the stochastic volatility factor given the spot value. This leads to a SDE nonlinear in the sense of McKean. Particle methods based on a kernel approximation of the conditional expectation, as presented by Guyon and Henry-Labordère (2011), provide an efficient calibration procedure even if some calibration errors may appear when the range of the stochastic volatility factor is very large. But so far, no global existence result is available for the SDE nonlinear in the sense of McKean. In the particular case where the local volatility function is equal to the inverse of the root conditional mean square of the stochastic volatility factor multiplied by the spot value given this value and the interest rate is zero, the solution to the SDE is a fake Brownian motion. When the stochastic volatility factor is a constant (over time) random variable taking finitely many values and the range of its square is not too large, we prove existence to the associated Fokker-Planck equation. Thanks to Figalli (2008), we then deduce existence of a new class of fake Brownian motions. We then extend these results to the special case of the LSV model called regime switching local volatility, where the stochastic volatility factor is a jump process taking finitely many values and with jump intensities depending on the spot level. Under the same condition on the range of its square, we prove existence to the associated Fokker-Planck PDE. Finally, we deduce existence of the calibrated model by extending the results in Figalli (2008).

math.PR↗

Recursive utility optimization with concave coefficients

This paper concerns the recursive utility maximization problem. We assume that the coefficients of the wealth equation and the recursive utility are concave. Then some interesting and important cases with nonlinear and nonsmooth coefficients satisfy our assumption. After given an equivalent backward formulation of our problem, we employ the Fenchel-Legendre transform and derive the corresponding variational formulation. By the convex duality method, the primal "sup-inf" problem is translated to a dual minimization problem and the saddle point of our problem is derived. Finally, we obtain the optimal terminal wealth. To illustrate our results, three cases for investors with ambiguity aversion are explicitly worked out under some special assumptions.

q-fin.MF↗

A probability-free and continuous-time explanation of the equity premium and CAPM

This paper gives yet another definition of game-theoretic probability in the context of continuous-time idealized financial markets. Without making any probabilistic assumptions (but assuming positive and continuous price paths), we obtain a simple expression for the equity premium and derive a version of the capital asset pricing model.

q-fin.MF↗