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arXiv2014

Ramsey Rule with Progressive utility and Long Term Affine Yields Curves

The purpose of this paper relies on the study of long term affine yield curves modeling. It is inspired by the Ramsey rule of the economic literature, that links discount rate and marginal utility of aggregate optimal consumption. For such a long maturity modelization, the possibility of adjusting preferences to new economic information is crucial, justifying the use of progressive utility. This paper studies, in a framework with affine factors, the yield curve given from the Ramsey rule. It first characterizes consistent progressive utility of investment and consumption, given the optimal wealth and consumption processes. A special attention is paid to utilities associated with linear optimal processes with respect to their initial conditions, which is for example the case of power progressive utilities. Those utilities are the basis point to construct other progressive utilities generating non linear optimal processes but leading yet to still tractable computations. This is of particular interest to study the impact of initial wealth on yield curves.

q-fin.CP↗
arXiv2014

Asymptotics for $d$-dimensional Lévy-type processes

We consider a general d-dimensional Levy-type process with killing. Combining the classical Dyson series approach with a novel polynomial expansion of the generator A(t) of the Levy-type process, we derive a family of asymptotic approximations for transition densities and European-style options prices. Examples of stochastic volatility models with jumps are provided in order to illustrate the numerical accuracy of our approach. The methods described in this paper extend the results from Corielli et al. (2010), Pagliarani and Pascucci (2013) and Lorig et al. (2013a) for Markov diffusions to Markov processes with jumps.

q-fin.CP↗
arXiv2014

Macroprudential oversight, risk communication and visualization

This paper discusses the role of risk communication in macroprudential oversight and of visualization in risk communication. Beyond the soar in data availability and precision, the transition from firm-centric to system-wide supervision imposes vast data needs. Moreover, except for internal communication as in any organization, broad and effective external communication of timely information related to systemic risks is a key mandate of macroprudential supervisors, further stressing the importance of simple representations of complex data. This paper focuses on the background and theory of information visualization and visual analytics, as well as techniques within these fields, as potential means for risk communication. We define the task of visualization in risk communication, discuss the structure of macroprudential data, and review visualization techniques applied to systemic risk. We conclude that two essential, yet rare, features for supporting the analysis of big data and communication of risks are analytical visualizations and interactive interfaces. For visualizing the so-called macroprudential data cube, we provide the VisRisk platform with three modules: plots, maps and networks. While VisRisk is herein illustrated with five web-based interactive visualizations of systemic risk indicators and models, the platform enables and is open to the visualization of any data from the macroprudential data cube.

q-fin.CP↗
arXiv2015

Leveraged {ETF} implied volatilities from {ETF} dynamics

The growth of the exhange-traded fund (ETF) industry has given rise to the trading of options written on ETFs and their leveraged counterparts {(LETFs)}. We study the relationship between the ETF and LETF implied volatility surfaces when the underlying ETF is modeled by a general class of local-stochastic volatility models. A closed-form approximation for prices is derived for European-style options whose payoff depends on the terminal value of the ETF and/or LETF. Rigorous error bounds for this pricing approximation are established. A closed-form approximation for implied volatilities is also derived. We also discuss a scaling procedure for comparing implied volatilities across leverage ratios. The implied volatility expansions and scalings are tested in three well-known settings: CEV, Heston and SABR.

q-fin.CP↗
arXiv2015

The least squares method for option pricing revisited

It is shown that the the popular least squares method of option pricing converges even under very general assumptions. This substantially increases the freedom of creating different implementations of the method, with varying levels of computational complexity and flexible approach to regression. It is also argued that in many practical applications even modest non-linear extensions of standard regression may produce satisfactory results. This claim is illustrated with examples.

q-fin.CP↗
arXiv2014

A Polynomial Scheme of Asymptotic Expansion for Backward SDEs and Option pricing

A new asymptotic expansion scheme for backward SDEs (BSDEs) is proposed.The perturbation parameter is introduced just to scale the forward stochastic variables within a BSDE. In contrast to the standard small-diffusion asymptotic expansion method, the dynamics of variables given by the forward SDEs is treated exactly. Although it requires a special form of the quadratic covariation terms of the continuous part, it allows rather generic drift as well as jump components to exist. The resultant approximation is given by a polynomial function in terms of the unperturbed forward variables whose coefficients are uniquely specified by the solution of the recursive system of linear ODEs. Applications to a jump-extended Heston and lambda-SABR models for European contingent claims, as well as the utility-optimization problem in the presence of a terminal liability are discussed.

q-fin.CP↗
arXiv2016

An explicit Euler scheme with strong rate of convergence for financial SDEs with non-Lipschitz coefficients

We consider the approximation of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with non-Lipschitz drift or diffusion coefficients. We present a modified explicit Euler-Maruyama discretisation scheme that allows us to prove strong convergence, with a rate. Under some regularity and integrability conditions, we obtain the optimal strong error rate. We apply this scheme to SDEs widely used in the mathematical finance literature, including the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross~(CIR), the 3/2 and the Ait-Sahalia models, as well as a family of mean-reverting processes with locally smooth coefficients. We numerically illustrate the strong convergence of the scheme and demonstrate its efficiency in a multilevel Monte Carlo setting.

q-fin.CP↗
arXiv2014

Splitting and Matrix Exponential approach for jump-diffusion models with Inverse Normal Gaussian, Hyperbolic and Meixner jumps

This paper is a further extension of the method proposed in Itkin, 2014 as applied to another set of jump-diffusion models: Inverse Normal Gaussian, Hyperbolic and Meixner. To solve the corresponding PIDEs we accomplish few steps. First, a second-order operator splitting on financial processes (diffusion and jumps) is applied to these PIDEs. To solve the diffusion equation, we use standard finite-difference methods. For the jump part, we transform the jump integral into a pseudo-differential operator and construct its second order approximation on a grid which supersets the grid that we used for the diffusion part. The proposed schemes are unconditionally stable in time and preserve positivity of the solution which is computed either via a matrix exponential, or via P'ade approximation of the matrix exponent. Various numerical experiments are provided to justify these results.

q-fin.CP↗
arXiv2014

VAR and ES/CVAR Dependence on data cleaning and Data Models: Analysis and Resolution

Historical (Stressed-) Value-at-Risk ((S)VAR), and Expected Shortfall (ES), are widely used risk measures in regulatory capital and Initial Margin, i.e. funding, computations. However, whilst the definitions of VAR and ES are unambiguous, they depend on input distributions that are data-cleaning- and Data-Model-dependent. We quantify the scale of these effects from USD CDS (2004--2014), and from USD interest rates (1989--2014, single-curve setup before 2004, multi-curve setup after 2004), and make two standardisation proposals: for data; and for Data-Models. VAR and ES are required for lifetime portfolio calculations, i.e. collateral calls, which cover a wide range of market states. Hence we need standard, i.e. clean, complete, and common (i.e. identical for all banks), market data also covering this wide range of market states. This data is historically incomplete and not clean hence data standardization is required. Stressed VAR and ES require moving market movements during a past (usually not recent) window to current, and future, market states. All choices (e.g. absolute difference, relative, relative scaled by some function of market states) implicitly define a Data Model for transformation of extreme market moves (recall that 99th percentiles are typical, and the behaviour of the rest is irrelevant). Hence we propose standard Data Models. These are necessary because different banks have different stress windows. Where there is no data, or a requirement for simplicity, we propose standard lookup tables (one per window, etc.). Without this standardization of data and Data Models we demonstrate that VAR and ES are complex derivatives of subjective choices.

q-fin.RM↗
arXiv2014

A Method of Reducing Dimension of Space Variables in Multi-dimensional Black-Scholes Equations

We study a method of reducing space dimension in multi-dimensional Black-Scholes partial differential equations as well as in multi-dimensional parabolic equations. We prove that a multiplicative transformation of space variables in the Black-Scholes partial differential equation reserves the form of Black-Scholes partial differential equation and reduces the space dimension. We show that this transformation can reduce the number of sources of risks by two or more in some cases by giving remarks and several examples of financial pricing problems. We also present that the invariance of the form of Black-Scholes equations is based on the invariance of the form of parabolic equation under a change of variables with the linear combination of variables.

q-fin.CP↗
arXiv2014

Multilevel path simulation for weak approximation schemes

In this paper we discuss the possibility of using multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods for weak approximation schemes. It turns out that by means of a simple coupling between consecutive time discretisation levels, one can achieve the same complexity gain as under the presence of a strong convergence. We exemplify this general idea in the case of weak Euler scheme for Lévy driven stochastic differential equations, and show that, given a weak convergence of order $α\geq 1/2,$ the complexity of the corresponding "weak" MLMC estimate is of order $\varepsilon^{-2}\log ^{2}(\varepsilon).$ The numerical performance of the new "weak" MLMC method is illustrated by several numerical examples.

q-fin.CP↗
arXiv2015

Ergodic BSDEs with jumps and time dependence

In this paper we look at ergodic BSDEs in the case where the forward dynamics are given by the solution to a non-autonomous (time-periodic coefficients) Ornstein-Uhlenbeck SDE with Lévy noise, taking values in a separable Hilbert space. We establish the existence of a unique bounded solution to an infinite horizon discounted BSDE. We then use the vanishing discount approach, together with coupling techniques, to obtain a Markovian solution to the EBSDE. We also prove uniqueness under certain growth conditions. Applications are then given, in particular to risk-averse ergodic optimal control and power plant evaluation under uncertainty.

math.PR↗
arXiv2014

A robust algorithm and convergence analysis for static replications of nonlinear payoffs

In this paper we propose a new robust algorithm to find the optimal static replicating portfolios for general nonlinear payoff functions and give the estimate of the rate of convergence that is absent in the literature. We choose the static replication by minimizing the error bound between the nonlinear payoff function and the linear spline approximation and derive the equidistribution equation for selecting the optimal strike prices. The numerical tests for variance swaps and swaptions and also for the static quadratic replication and the model with counterparty risk show that the proposed algorithm is simple, fast and accurate. The paper has generalized and improved the results of the static replication and approximation in the literature.

q-fin.CP↗
arXiv2014

Semiclassical approximation in stochastic optimal control I. Portfolio construction problem

This is the first in a series of papers in which we study an efficient approximation scheme for solving the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation for multi-dimensional problems in stochastic control theory. The method is a combination of a WKB style asymptotic expansion of the value function, which reduces the second order HJB partial differential equation to a hierarchy of first order PDEs, followed by a numerical algorithm to solve the first few of the resulting first order PDEs. This method is applicable to stochastic systems with a relatively large number of degrees of freedom, and does not seem to suffer from the curse of dimensionality. Computer code implementation of the method using modest computational resources runs essentially in real time. We apply the method to solve a general portfolio construction problem.

q-fin.CP↗
arXiv2014

Using an Artificial Financial Market for studying a Cryptocurrency Market

This paper presents an agent-based artificial cryptocurrency market in which heterogeneous agents buy or sell cryptocurrencies, in particular Bitcoins. In this market, there are two typologies of agents, Random Traders and Chartists, which interact with each other by trading Bitcoins. Each agent is initially endowed with a finite amount of crypto and/or fiat cash and issues buy and sell orders, according to her strategy and resources. The number of Bitcoins increases over time with a rate proportional to the real one, even if the mining process is not explicitly modelled. The model proposed is able to reproduce some of the real statistical properties of the price absolute returns observed in the Bitcoin real market. In particular, it is able to reproduce the autocorrelation of the absolute returns, and their cumulative distribution function. The simulator has been implemented using object-oriented technology, and could be considered a valid starting point to study and analyse the cryptocurrency market and its future evolutions.

q-fin.TR↗
arXiv2014

Predictability of Volatility Homogenised Financial Time Series

Modelling financial time series as a time change of a simpler process has been proposed in various forms over the years. One of such recent approaches is called volatility homogenisation decomposition, and has been designed specifically to aid the forecasting of price changes on financial markets. The authors of this method have attempted to prove the its usefulness by applying a specific forecasting procedure and determining the effectiveness of this procedure on the decomposed time series, as compared with the original time series. This is problematic in at least two ways. First, the choice of the forecasting procedure obviously has an effect on the results, rendering them non-exhaustive. Second, the results obtained were not completely convincing, with some values falling under 50% guessing rate. Additionally, only nine Australian stocks were being investigated, which further limits the scope of this proof. In this study we propose to find the usefulness of volatility homogenisation by calculating the predictability of the decomposed time series and comparing it to the predictability of the original time series. We are applying information-theoretic notion of entropy rate to quantify predictability, which guarantees the result is not tied to a specific method of prediction, and additionally we base our calculations on a large number of stocks from the Warsaw Stock Exchange.

q-fin.ST↗
arXiv2015

Bank Networks from Text: Interrelations, Centrality and Determinants

In the wake of the still ongoing global financial crisis, bank interdependencies have come into focus in trying to assess linkages among banks and systemic risk. To date, such analysis has largely been based on numerical data. By contrast, this study attempts to gain further insight into bank interconnections by tapping into financial discourse. We present a text-to-network process, which has its basis in co-occurrences of bank names and can be analyzed quantitatively and visualized. To quantify bank importance, we propose an information centrality measure to rank and assess trends of bank centrality in discussion. For qualitative assessment of bank networks, we put forward a visual, interactive interface for better illustrating network structures. We illustrate the text-based approach on European Large and Complex Banking Groups (LCBGs) during the ongoing financial crisis by quantifying bank interrelations and centrality from discussion in 3M news articles, spanning 2007Q1 to 2014Q3.

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