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arXiv2014

To sigmoid-based functional description of the volatility smile

We propose a new static parameterization of the implied volatility surface which is constructed by using polynomials of sigmoid functions combined with some other terms. This parameterization is flexible enough to fit market implied volatilities which demonstrate smile or skew. An arbitrage-free calibration algorithm is considered that constructs the implied volatility surface as a grid in the strike-expiration space and guarantees a lack of arbitrage at every node of this grid. We also demonstrate how to construct an arbitrage-free interpolation and extrapolation in time, as well as build a local volatility and implied pdf surfaces. Asymptotic behavior of this parameterization is discussed, as well as results on stability of the calibrated parameters are presented. Numerical examples show robustness of the proposed approach in building all these surfaces as well as demonstrate a better quality of the fit as compared with some known models.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2014

Causal Non-Linear Financial Networks

In our previous study we have presented an approach to studying lead--lag effect in financial markets using information and network theories. Methodology presented there, as well as previous studies using Pearson's correlation for the same purpose, approached the concept of lead--lag effect in a naive way. In this paper we further investigate the lead--lag effect in financial markets, this time treating them as causal effects. To incorporate causality in a manner consistent with our previous study, that is including non-linear interdependencies, we base this study on a generalisation of Granger causality in the form of transfer entropy, or equivalently a special case of conditional (partial) mutual information. This way we are able to produce networks of stocks, where directed links represent causal relationships for a specific time lag. We apply this procedure to stocks belonging to the NYSE 100 index for various time lags, to investigate the short-term causality on this market, and to comment on the resulting Bonferroni networks.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2014

Multivariate Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregressive Models with eXogenous Input

This study defines a multivariate Self--Exciting Threshold Autoregressive with eXogenous input (MSETARX) models and present an estimation procedure for the parameters. The conditions for stationarity of the nonlinear MSETARX models is provided. In particular, the efficiency of an adaptive parameter estimation algorithm and LSE (least squares estimate) algorithm for this class of models is then provided via simulations.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2014

Maximum Entropy Production Principle for Stock Returns

In our previous studies we have investigated the structural complexity of time series describing stock returns on New York's and Warsaw's stock exchanges, by employing two estimators of Shannon's entropy rate based on Lempel-Ziv and Context Tree Weighting algorithms, which were originally used for data compression. Such structural complexity of the time series describing logarithmic stock returns can be used as a measure of the inherent (model-free) predictability of the underlying price formation processes, testing the Efficient-Market Hypothesis in practice. We have also correlated the estimated predictability with the profitability of standard trading algorithms, and found that these do not use the structure inherent in the stock returns to any significant degree. To find a way to use the structural complexity of the stock returns for the purpose of predictions we propose the Maximum Entropy Production Principle as applied to stock returns, and test it on the two mentioned markets, inquiring into whether it is possible to enhance prediction of stock returns based on the structural complexity of these and the mentioned principle.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2014

High Performance Financial Simulation Using Randomized Quasi-Monte Carlo Methods

GPU computing has become popular in computational finance and many financial institutions are moving their CPU based applications to the GPU platform. Since most Monte Carlo algorithms are embarrassingly parallel, they benefit greatly from parallel implementations, and consequently Monte Carlo has become a focal point in GPU computing. GPU speed-up examples reported in the literature often involve Monte Carlo algorithms, and there are software tools commercially available that help migrate Monte Carlo financial pricing models to GPU. We present a survey of Monte Carlo and randomized quasi-Monte Carlo methods, and discuss existing (quasi) Monte Carlo sequences in GPU libraries. We discuss specific features of GPU architecture relevant for developing efficient (quasi) Monte Carlo methods. We introduce a recent randomized quasi-Monte Carlo method, and compare it with some of the existing implementations on GPU, when they are used in pricing caplets in the LIBOR market model and mortgage backed securities.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2014

Approximating the zero-coupon bond price in a general one-factor model with constant coefficients

We consider a general one-factor short rate model, in which the instantaneous interest rate is driven by a univariate diffusion with time independent drift and volatility. We construct recursive formula for the coefficients of the Taylor expansion of the bond price and its logarithm around $τ=0$, where $τ$ is time to maturity. We provide numerical examples of convergence of the partial sums of the series and compare them with the known exact values in the case of Cox-Ingersoll-Ross and Dothan model.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2014

A Noisy Principal Component Analysis for Forward Rate Curves

Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is the most common nonparametric method for estimating the volatility structure of Gaussian interest rate models. One major difficulty in the estimation of these models is the fact that forward rate curves are not directly observable from the market so that non-trivial observational errors arise in any statistical analysis. In this work, we point out that the classical PCA analysis is not suitable for estimating factors of forward rate curves due to the presence of measurement errors induced by market microstructure effects and numerical interpolation. Our analysis indicates that the PCA based on the long-run covariance matrix is capable to extract the true covariance structure of the forward rate curves in the presence of observational errors. Moreover, it provides a significant reduction in the pricing errors due to noisy data typically founded in forward rate curves.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2014

Efficient solution of structural default models with correlated jumps and mutual obligations

The structural default model of Lipton and Sepp, 2009 is generalized for a set of banks with mutual interbank liabilities whose assets are driven by correlated Levy processes with idiosyncratic and common components. The multi-dimensional problem is made tractable via a novel computational method, which generalizes the one-dimensional fractional partial differential equation method of Itkin, 2014 to the two- and three-dimensional cases. This method is unconditionally stable and of the second order of approximation in space and time; in addition, for many popular Levy models it has linear complexity in each dimension. Marginal and joint survival probabilities for two and three banks with mutual liabilities are computed. The effects of mutual liabilities are discussed, and numerical examples are given to illustrate these effects.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2015

A lattice framework for pricing display advertisement options with the stochastic volatility underlying model

Advertisement (abbreviated ad) options are a recent development in online advertising. Simply, an ad option is a first look contract in which a publisher or search engine grants an advertiser a right but not obligation to enter into transactions to purchase impressions or clicks from a specific ad slot at a pre-specified price on a specific delivery date. Such a structure provides advertisers with more flexibility of their guaranteed deliveries. The valuation of ad options is an important topic and previous studies on ad options pricing have been mostly restricted to the situations where the underlying prices follow a geometric Brownian motion (GBM). This assumption is reasonable for sponsored search; however, some studies have also indicated that it is not valid for display advertising. In this paper, we address this issue by employing a stochastic volatility (SV) model and discuss a lattice framework to approximate the proposed SV model in option pricing. Our developments are validated by experiments with real advertising data: (i) we find that the SV model has a better fitness over the GBM model; (ii) we validate the proposed lattice model via two sequential Monte Carlo simulation methods; (iii) we demonstrate that advertisers are able to flexibly manage their guaranteed deliveries by using the proposed options, and publishers can have an increased revenue when some of their inventories are sold via ad options.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2014

A Bayesian Beta Markov Random Field Calibration of the Term Structure of Implied Risk Neutral Densities

We build on the work in Fackler and King 1990, and propose a more general calibration model for implied risk neutral densities. Our model allows for the joint calibration of a set of densities at different maturities and dates through a Bayesian dynamic Beta Markov Random Field. Our approach allows for possible time dependence between densities with the same maturity, and for dependence across maturities at the same point in time. This approach to the problem encompasses model flexibility, parameter parsimony and, more importantly, information pooling across densities.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2014

Recombining binomial tree for constant elasticity of variance process

The theme in this paper is the recombining binomial tree to price American put option when the underlying stock follows constant elasticity of variance(CEV) process. Recombining nodes of binomial tree are decided from finite difference scheme to emulate CEV process and the tree has a linear complexity. Also it is derived from the differential equation the asymptotic envelope of the boundary of tree. Conducting numerical experiments, we confirm the convergence and accuracy of the pricing by our recombining binomial tree method. As a result, we can compute the price of American put option under CEV model, effectively.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2014

Perturbation analysis of a nonlinear equation arising in the Schaefer-Schwartz model of interest rates

We deal with the interest rate model proposed by Schaefer and Schwartz, which models the long rate and the spread, defined as the difference between the short and the long rates. The approximate analytical formula for the bond prices suggested by the authors requires a computation of a certain constant, defined via a nonlinear equation and an integral of a solution to a system of ordinary differential equations. In this paper we use perturbation methods to compute this constant. Coefficients of its expansion are given in a closed form and can be constructed to arbitrary order. However, our numerical results show that a very good accuracy is achieved already after using a small number of terms.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2014

Randomisation and recursion methods for mixed-exponential Levy models, with financial applications

We develop a new Monte Carlo variance reduction method to estimate the expectation of two commonly encountered path-dependent functionals: first-passage times and occupation times of sets. The method is based on a recursive approximation of the first-passage time probability and expected occupation time of sets of a Levy bridge process that relies in part on a randomisation of the time parameter. We establish this recursion for general Levy processes and derive its explicit form for mixed-exponential jump-diffusions, a dense subclass (in the sense of weak approximation) of Levy processes, which includes Brownian motion with drift, Kou's double-exponential model and hyper-exponential jump-diffusion models. We present a highly accurate numerical realisation and derive error estimates. By way of illustration the method is applied to the valuation of range accruals and barrier options under exponential Levy models and Bates-type stochastic volatility models with exponential jumps. Compared with standard Monte Carlo methods, we find that the method is significantly more efficient.

math.PR↗

arXiv2016

GMWB Riders in a Binomial Framework - Pricing, Hedging, and Diversification of Mortality Risk

We construct a binomial model for a guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefit (GMWB) rider to a variable annuity (VA) under optimal policyholder behaviour. The binomial model results in explicitly formulated perfect hedging strategies funded using only periodic fee income. We consider the separate perspectives of the insurer and policyholder and introduce a unifying relationship. Decompositions of the VA and GMWB contract into term-certain payments and options representing the guarantee and early surrender features are extended to the binomial framework. We incorporate an approximation algorithm for Asian options that significantly improves efficiency of the binomial model while retaining accuracy. Several numerical examples are provided which illustrate both the accuracy and the tractability of the binomial model. We extend the binomial model to include policy holder mortality and death benefits. Pricing, hedging, and the decompositions of the contract are extended to incorporate mortality risk. We prove limiting results for the hedging strategies and demonstrate mortality risk diversification. Numerical examples are provided which illustrate the effectiveness of hedging and the diversification of mortality risk under capacity constraints with finite pools.

q-fin.PR↗

arXiv2022

A Fourier interpolation method for numerical solution of FBSDEs: Global convergence, stability, and higher order discretizations

The convolution method for the numerical solution of forward-backward stochastic differential equations (FBSDEs), introduced in [21], uses a uniform space grid. In this paper we utilize a tree-like spatial discretization that approximates the BSDE on the tree, so that no spatial interpolation procedure is necessary. In addition to suppressing extrapolation error, leading to a globally convergent numerical solution for the FBSDE, we provide explicit convergence rates. On this alternative grid the conditional expectations involved in the time discretization of the BSDE are computed using Fourier analysis and the fast Fourier transform (FFT) algorithm. The method is then extended to higher-order time discretizations of FBSDEs. Numerical results demonstrating convergence are presented using a commodity price model, incorporating seasonality, and forward prices.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2014

Exact solution of a generalized version of the Black-Scholes equation

We analyze a generalized version of the Black-Scholes equation depending on a parameter $a\!\in \!(-\infty,0)$. It satisfies the martingale condition and coincides with the Black-Scholes equation in the limit case $a\nearrow 0$. We show that the generalized equation is exactly solvable in terms of Hermite polynomials and numerically compare its solution with the solution of the Black-Scholes equation.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2014

Multilevel approximation of backward stochastic differential equations

We develop a multilevel approach to compute approximate solutions to backward differential equations (BSDEs). The fully implementable algorithm of our multilevel scheme constructs sequential martingale control variates along a sequence of refining time-grids to reduce statistical approximation errors in an adaptive and generic way. We provide an error analysis with explicit and non-asymptotic error estimates for the multilevel scheme under general conditions on the forward process and the BSDE data. It is shown that the multilevel approach can reduce the computational complexity to achieve precision $ε$, ensured by error estimates, essentially by one order (in $ε^{-1}$) in comparison to established methods, which is substantial. Computational examples support the validity of the theoretical analysis, demonstrating efficiency improvements in practice.

math.PR↗

arXiv2014

Monte Carlo Calculation of Exposure Profiles and Greeks for Bermudan and Barrier Options under the Heston Hull-White Model

Valuation of Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA) has become an important field as its calculation is required in Basel III, issued in 2010, in the wake of the credit crisis. Exposure, which is defined as the potential future loss of a default event without any recovery, is one of the key elementsfor pricing CVA. This paper provides a backward dynamics framework for assessing exposure profiles of European, Bermudan and barrier options under the Heston and Heston Hull-White asset dynamics. We discuss the potential of an efficient and adaptive Monte Carlo approach, the Stochastic Grid Bundling Method}(SGBM), which employs the techniques of simulation, regression and bundling. Greeks of the exposure profiles can be calculated in the same backward iteration with little extra effort. Assuming independence between default event and exposure profiles, we give examples of calculating exposure, CVA and Greeks for Bermudan and barrier options.

q-fin.CP↗