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arXiv2026

Non-Adaptive 1-Bit Mean Estimation: Minimax Rates and the Sample-Interval Tradeoff

We study distributed one-dimensional mean estimation under a 1-bit communication constraint. Each agent observes one sample, drawn independently from an unknown distribution, and returns a single bit in response to a query $Q: \mathbb{R}\to\{0,1\}$ chosen by a central learner. The distribution has mean in $[-λ,λ]$ and $k$-th central moment at most $σ^k$, for a fixed $k>1$. The order-optimal two-stage protocol of Lau and Scarlett uses responses from the first batch to choose the second-batch queries, motivating the question of whether this single round of interaction is necessary. We answer this negatively: for every $k>1$, a non-adaptive protocol attains the adaptive 1-bit minimax rate (and concurrent works reached the same conclusion via different strategies). We further determine the minimax sample complexity among non-adaptive 1-bit estimators when every one-set $Q^{-1}(1)$ is restricted to a union of at most $s$ intervals. Relative to unrestricted non-adaptive 1-bit querying, this constraint adds a term of order $(λσ/(s\varepsilon^2))\log(1/δ)$, giving the full tradeoff between sample complexity and interval complexity to within $k$-dependent constant factors. As a corollary, we identify, order-wise, the minimum interval budget needed to retain the unrestricted 1-bit minimax sample rate.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Mudskippers use tail thrusting to help crutching to move on mud of various wetness

At the water-land interface, amphibious fishes encounter wet flowable substrates made of granular solid-water mixtures, which can stay solid or flow like a fluid. As these substrates become wetter or drier, their yield strength (at which solid-fluid transition occurs) and cohesion (how sticky they are) both change, challenging locomotion. Despite substantial understanding of tetrapod locomotion on flowable substrates (mostly dry sand), we know little about how amphibious fishes cope with wet flowable substrates of various wetness. Here, we studied mudskippers on clay mud of controlled, variable wetness over the range where solid-fluid transition occurs. As mud became wetter, its strength decreased by 100-fold, leading the animal to sink deeper, with larger areas of body and fins contacting mud. By contrast, mud stuck most easily at intermediate wetness. The increased sinkage and contact and stickiness change caused more mud to stick to and pull against the animal on wetter mud. We also tested dry mud, which stuck to animal fins as its mucus dried. Despite these challenges, the mudskipper predominately used a conserved crutching gait on all except the wettest mud tested, with a modest performance reduction. When normal crutching became less effective, the animal assisted it with tail thrusting, by bending and straightening it to push downward and backward to generate additional thrust and lift, or even thrusting the tail to jump. These observations suggest that mudskipper's crutching motor program is well adapted to its native muddy substrates but inflexible, with most novelty in tail use.

physics.bio-ph↗

arXiv2026

Exact Limits of Random Projections for Preserving Geometry: Distance Recovery, Nearest-Neighbor Rankings, and Covariance Shape in Gaussian Models

The Johnson-Lindenstrauss (JL) lemma guarantees that a random projection of $n$ points to $m=O(\varepsilon^{-2}\log n)$ dimensions preserves pairwise squared distances within relative error $\varepsilon$ with high probability, and this dimension order is asymptotically optimal. In high dimensions, however, distances concentrate around a baseline while key geometric information lies in much smaller fluctuations. We show that the JL bound can therefore be uninformative about retained geometry: an independent Gaussian replacement map can satisfy it even though the replacement cloud is independent of the original data. We then ask how well any decoder can recover a feature $f(D)$ of a squared distance $D$ from a linear sketch. Under squared-error loss, the optimal decoder is conditional expectation, so recovery defines a linear operator whose singular values quantify feature recovery. For isotropic Gaussian data ($Σ=σ^2 I_d$), we diagonalize this operator in closed form. For fixed $k$ with $m,d-m\to\infty$, its $k$th singular value satisfies $\ell_k\approx(m/ d)^{k/2}$. This yields three sharp consequences. A rank-$m$ sketch retains at most an $m/d$ fraction of the variance of any feature of one squared distance. If $m\to\infty$ and $m/d\to0$, the expected Kendall correlation is $\frac{2}π\sqrt{m/d}(1+o(1))$; for fixed $q$, nearest- neighbor agreement tends to $1/q$. Yet one projection can satisfy the JL bound while mean Kendall correlation vanishes when $\log n\ll m\ll d$. After removing scale, Haar-averaged retained covariance-shape information is $(m/d)^2$. Thus JL distance preservation does not quantify the geometry available for comparison or inference.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Variation Spaces for Encoder--Decoder Neural Operators: Approximation and Generalization

Inspired by the function-space theory of neural networks, we formulate and analyze a variation space for nonlinear operators between Hilbert spaces, defined through vector-valued Borel measures of bounded variation. We characterize its unit ball as the closed convex hull of a vector-valued single-neuron dictionary in Bochner spaces. For the ReLU activation, the bounded linear operators in this space are precisely the Schatten-$1$ operators, with equivalent norms. For operators in this space, we establish encoder--decoder approximation bounds in the Bochner $L^q$-norm, where the error decomposes into input and output encoding errors and a finite-width term of order $N^{-1/2}$. Under sub-Gaussian assumptions on the input and noise, we further derive high-probability generalization bounds for empirical least squares over path-norm-constrained encoder--decoder networks; the finite-sample contribution to the squared prediction error is of order $K^{-1/2}$ up to logarithmic factors. The finite-width and finite-sample constants are independent of the encoding dimensions and bases, with the latter also independent of the network width. When the encoding errors decay algebraically, these bounds yield algebraic approximation and learning rates, in contrast to the complexity barriers for Lipschitz and Fréchet differentiable operator classes.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Almost Sharp Equivalence between Approximate Message Passing and Low-Degree Polynomials

We prove a sharp lower bound for growing-degree polynomial estimation in the Gaussian planted submatrix model. The observation is $$ \boldsymbol{Y}= \fracλ{\sqrt{n}} \boldsymbolθ \boldsymbolθ^{\top}+\boldsymbol{W}, $$ where the coordinates of $\boldsymbolθ$ are independent $\mathsf{Ber}(ρ)$ variables and $\boldsymbol{W}$ is symmetric with independent standard Gaussian upper-triangular entries. For every fixed $λ>0$ and $ρ\in(0,1)$, we give an explicit finite-dimensional bound implying that every sequence of polynomial estimators of degree $D(n)=o(n^{1/60})$ has normalized mean-square error with limit inferior at least $ρ-q_{\mathsf{amp}}/λ$, the limiting error of Bayes approximate message passing (AMP). This extends the constant-degree result of Montanari and Wein~\cite{montanari2025equivalence} for the Bernoulli prior. Combined with their polynomial approximation of fixed-iteration AMP, the bound identifies the exact limiting low-degree MMSE whenever $D(n)\to\infty$ within this range. It therefore resolves the Bernoulli rank-one case of the growing-degree AMP-equivalence question discussed in~\cite{wein2025computational, maleki2026high}. The proof constructs a low-degree certificate using \emph{conditional} joint cumulants of the signal coordinates and their products. Specifically, we condition on an auxiliary Gaussian channel $\boldsymbol{R}$ calibrated to the AMP fixed point. This retains signal dependence that is lost in unconditional cumulant bounds and produces the cancellations needed for quantitative control as the degree grows. Most of the arguments in this paper were generated using GPT-6 Astra.

math.ST↗

arXiv2026

CLAIR-Fin: An Adversarial Multi-Agent Framework for Claim-Level Verification and Adaptive Debate in Cross-Modal Financial QA

Existing defenses against hallucination in retrieval-augmented and multi-agent pipelines remain partial: evidence is trusted despite modality disagreement, debate verifies an aggregate report rather than individual claims, and such verification occurs only after drafting, leaving inter-agent errors undetected until the final text. To close this gap, we present CLAIR-Fin, a nine-agent framework that decomposes each question into atomic claims maintained in a typed Financial Claim Ledger. Each claim is resolved through Asymmetric Evidence Authority, which conditions evidence trust on claim type rather than treating all modalities as equally reliable; Chain-of-Custody Verification, which checks grounding at the hand-off between drafting and adversarial review rather than only at the pipeline's exit; an Adaptive Rebuttal Cycle, which routes contested claims through adversarial debate whose depth scales with what that debate finds; and a terminal entailment audit paired with a continuous Hallucination Risk Index that distinguishes claims that passed scrutiny from claims never contested. We evaluate CLAIR-Fin on BB-FinQA-X, a 500-question cross-modal financial evaluation set built from Bangladesh Bank Annual Report material, stratified by query type, format, and difficulty. Relative to a single-pass retrieval-augmented generation baseline, it raises faithfulness ($0.780 \rightarrow 0.889$) while abstaining on 5.4% of questions when evidence is insufficient rather than forcing an unsupported response, and it exceeds stronger retrieval-strategy baselines such as HyDE and Graph-RAG on faithfulness ($\leq 0.874$).

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

The Role of Pseudo-labels in Self-training Linear Classifiers on High-dimensional Gaussian Mixture Data

Self-training (ST) is a simple yet effective semi-supervised learning method. However, why and how ST improves generalization performance by using potentially erroneous pseudo-labels is still not well understood. To deepen the understanding of ST, we derive and analyze a sharp characterization of the behavior of iterative ST when training a linear classifier by minimizing the ridge-regularized convex loss on binary Gaussian mixtures, in the asymptotic limit where input dimension and data size diverge proportionally. The results show that ST improves generalization in different ways depending on the number of iterations. When the number of iterations is small, ST improves generalization performance by fitting the model to relatively reliable pseudo-labels and updating the model parameters by a large amount at each iteration. This suggests that ST works intuitively. On the other hand, with many iterations, ST can gradually improve the direction of the classification plane by updating the model parameters incrementally, using soft labels and small regularization. It is argued that this is because the small update of ST can extract information from the data in an almost noiseless way. However, in the presence of label imbalance, the generalization performance of ST underperforms supervised learning with true labels. To overcome this, two heuristics are proposed to enable ST to achieve nearly compatible performance with supervised learning even with significant label imbalance.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

ST-EVO: Towards Generative Spatio-Temporal Evolution of Multi-Agent Communication Topologies

LLM-powered Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) have emerged as an effective approach towards collaborative intelligence, and have attracted wide research interests. Among them, ``self-evolving'' MAS, treated as a more flexible and powerful technical route, can construct task-adaptive workflows or communication topologies, instead of relying on a predefined static structue template. Current self-evolving MAS mainly focus on Spatial Evolving or Temporal Evolving paradigm, which only considers the single dimension of evolution and does not fully incentivize LLMs' collaborative capability. In this work, we start from a novel Spatio-Temporal perspective by proposing ST-EVO, which supports dialogue-wise communication scheduling with a compact yet powerful flow-matching based Scheduler. To make precise Spatio-Temporal scheduling, ST-EVO can also perceive the uncertainty of MAS, and possesses self-feedback ability to learn from accumulated experience. Extensive experiments on nine benchmarks demonstrate the state-of-the-art performance of ST-EVO, achieving about 5%--25% accuracy improvement.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2026

NS-ST-GraphRAG: Neuro-Symbolic Spatio-Temporal GraphRAG for Literary Knowledge Processing

Long-form literary narratives pose a distinctive information-processing challenge for retrieval-augmented generation: relevant evidence is distributed across chapters, relations evolve over narrative time, and correct answers may depend jointly on temporal, spatial, and relational constraints. We propose NS-ST-GraphRAG, a neuro-symbolic spatio-temporal GraphRAG framework that integrates ontology-guided extraction, deterministic constraint checking, dual temporal coordinates, spatial scene attributes, and dynamic sub-graph retrieval. Instead of retrieving from a single corpus-level graph, the framework selects the graph state valid for the temporal and spatial scope of a query and grounds generated answers in traceable evidence. We further introduce Red-Chamber-QA, to our knowledge the first open multi-hop question-answering benchmark for classical Chinese literature, with time-, space-, and general-question categories, per-part evidence spans, and deterministic shortcut controls. On a 120-question held-out split, NS-ST-GraphRAG achieves mechanical answer reproduction of 0.733 versus 0.675 for the frozen window baseline and 0.083 for a closed-book model (McNemar exact p = 0.092, directionally favorable but not significant); semantic-judge accuracy is 0.866 versus 0.850. The pre-specified constrained-category condition of H2 is not supported by the delivered comparison. These results show how temporal graph representation, constrained extraction, and auditable evaluation integrate into a unified framework for verifiable knowledge processing over long-form narrative.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

A simple derivation of the Kalman filter

In this lecture note, we present a concise and self-contained derivation of the discrete-time Kalman filter equations that requires only a basic understanding of least squares estimation. The treatment is designed to minimize mathematical overhead while preserving both rigor and generality.

math.OC↗

arXiv2026

On the Sequential Test and Distributed Detection

We present a simple definition of stopping time and its role in the formulation of sequential tests for both centralized and distributed detection, providing a straightforward procedure for obtaining optimal decision rules. Upper bounds for optimal stopping time are derived and numerically shown to possess certain qualitative features expected of the optimal stopping time. The results are extended to any distributed detection network in the form of an acyclic directed graph.

cs.IT↗

arXiv2026

Sharp mean-field analysis of permutation mixtures and permutation-invariant decisions

We develop sharp bounds on the statistical distance between high-dimensional permutation mixtures and their i.i.d. counterparts. Our approach establishes a new geometric link between the spectrum of a complex channel overlap matrix and the information geometry of the channel, yielding tight dimension-independent bounds that close gaps left by previous work. Within this geometric framework, we also derive dimension-dependent bounds that uncover phase transitions in dimensionality for Gaussian and Poisson families. Applied to compound decision problems, this refined control of permutation mixtures enables sharper mean-field analyses of permutation-invariant decision rules, yielding strong non-asymptotic equivalence results between two notions of compound regret in Gaussian and Poisson models.

math.ST↗

arXiv2026

A Complete Characterization of Tensorizable $f$-divergences

Csiszar's formulation of the $f$-divergence introduced a vast family of functionals for quantifying dissimilarity between probability distributions. However, many applications in statistics and information theory rely only on a few $f$-divergences, such as the Kullback-Leibler divergence, the $χ^2$-divergence, and the squared Hellinger distance. These divergences are especially useful because they admit simple compositional formulas under product measures, a property sometimes referred to as tensorization. In this work, we refine a formalism of tensorization previously introduced in the literature. Then, we show that any possible tensorization formula has a multi-affine form characterized by a single parameter, and identify all tensorizable $f$-divergences under our adopted notion of tensorization.

cs.IT↗

arXiv2026

Accelerated High-Accuracy Sampling from a Warm Start via the Proximal Bouncy Particle Sampler

We study the problem of sampling from $μ(\mathrm{d}x)\propto e^{-V(x)}\,\mathrm{d}x$ on $\mathbb{R}^d$, where $V$ is $α$-strongly convex and $β$-smooth, and write $κ:=β/α$. We design and analyze the Proximal Bouncy Particle Sampler (Proximal BPS), a new sampler that combines ideas from the proximal sampler and the bouncy particle sampler. From a warm start initialization with $ O(1) $ Rényi divergence w.r.t. $μ$, Proximal BPS returns a sample whose law is $\varepsilon$-close to $μ$ in total variation distance using $\widetilde O(\sqrtκ\,d^{1/4} \,\mathrm{polylog}(1/\varepsilon))$ gradient queries in expectation.

math.ST↗

arXiv2026

Tensor network representations of discrete maximum entropy distributions via mean polytopes

We present tensor network representations for discrete maximum entropy distributions under expectation constraints. To this end, we introduce Computation-Activation Networks (CompActNets), a tensor network architecture that subsumes exponential families. By leveraging the geometry of the convex polytope of realizable expectation vectors, we represent any maximum entropy distribution in the same architecture. We exploit the fact that proper faces of this polytope correspond to the boundary closure of exponential families, which restricts the distribution's support. We then derive explicit representations for the support within the CompActNet architecture. The proposed framework suggests tensor network ranks as complexity measures for faces. Finally, a case study on Boolean statistics links the geometry of 0/1-polytopes directly to propositional formulas.

math.ST↗

arXiv2026

Bayesian Adversarial Privacy

Theoretical and applied research into privacy encompasses an incredibly broad swathe of differing approaches, emphases and aims. This work introduces a novel quantitative notion of privacy that is both contextual and specific. Building on and extending ideas from statistical disclosure control and differential privacy, our aim is to model the implications of a disclosure decision in an adversarial setting. Our definition relies on concepts inherent to standard Bayesian decision theory, while departing from them in several important respects. In particular, (i) inference about the data itself becomes meaningful and (ii) the party controlling the release of sensitive information should make disclosure decisions from the prior viewpoint, rather than conditional on the data, which is a feature shared with Bayesian design. Illuminating toy examples are exploited towards highlighting the specificities of the method.

math.ST↗

arXiv2026

Generalization Error Curves for Analytic Spectral Algorithms under Power-law Decay

The generalization error curve of certain kernel regression method aims at determining the exact order of generalization error with various source condition, noise level and choice of the regularization parameter rather than the minimax rate. In this work, under mild assumptions, we rigorously provide a full characterization of the generalization error curves of the kernel gradient descent method (and a large class of analytic spectral algorithms) in kernel regression. Consequently, we could sharpen the near inconsistency of kernel interpolation and clarify the saturation effects of kernel regression algorithms with higher qualification, etc. Thanks to the neural tangent kernel theory, these results greatly improve our understanding of the generalization behavior of training the wide neural networks. A novel technical contribution, the analytic functional argument, might be of independent interest.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Bernstein--von Mises theorems for Bayesian probabilistic numerics

We study probabilistic numerical methods for solving nonlinear PDEs from a Bayesian nonparametric perspective. Given noisy evaluations at random collocation points, we place a truncated Gaussian series prior on the unknown solution and establish contraction at the minimax nonparametric rate, up to a logarithmic factor. Our main results give Gaussian approximations of the posterior in positive-order Sobolev spaces and, under suitable conditions, in the uniform topology. This contrasts with classical ill-posed inverse problems, where Bernstein--von Mises theorems typically require substantially weaker topologies. Here, the observation operator is differential rather than smoothing, and inversion of its linearisation gains regularity, making these strong-topology results possible. The posterior may be centred at either the posterior mean or the posterior mode. We further prove that the Gaussian Laplace approximation is asymptotically equivalent to the true posterior at a $\sqrt{N}$-scale.

math.ST↗