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arXiv2014

Epidemiological modeling of online social network dynamics

The last decade has seen the rise of immense online social networks (OSNs) such as MySpace and Facebook. In this paper we use epidemiological models to explain user adoption and abandonment of OSNs, where adoption is analogous to infection and abandonment is analogous to recovery. We modify the traditional SIR model of disease spread by incorporating infectious recovery dynamics such that contact between a recovered and infected member of the population is required for recovery. The proposed infectious recovery SIR model (irSIR model) is validated using publicly available Google search query data for "MySpace" as a case study of an OSN that has exhibited both adoption and abandonment phases. The irSIR model is then applied to search query data for "Facebook," which is just beginning to show the onset of an abandonment phase. Extrapolating the best fit model into the future predicts a rapid decline in Facebook activity in the next few years.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

The power of indirect social ties

While direct social ties have been intensely studied in the context of computer-mediated social networks, indirect ties (e.g., friends of friends) have seen little attention. Yet in real life, we often rely on friends of our friends for recommendations (of good doctors, good schools, or good babysitters), for introduction to a new job opportunity, and for many other occasional needs. In this work we attempt to 1) quantify the strength of indirect social ties, 2) validate it, and 3) empirically demonstrate its usefulness for distributed applications on two examples. We quantify social strength of indirect ties using a(ny) measure of the strength of the direct ties that connect two people and the intuition provided by the sociology literature. We validate the proposed metric experimentally by comparing correlations with other direct social tie evaluators. We show via data-driven experiments that the proposed metric for social strength can be used successfully for social applications. Specifically, we show that it alleviates known problems in friend-to-friend storage systems by addressing two previously documented shortcomings: reduced set of storage candidates and data availability correlations. We also show that it can be used for predicting the effects of a social diffusion with an accuracy of up to 93.5%.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

Iterated crowdsourcing dilemma game

The Internet has enabled the emergence of collective problem solving, also known as crowdsourcing, as a viable option for solving complex tasks. However, the openness of crowdsourcing presents a challenge because solutions obtained by it can be sabotaged, stolen, and manipulated at a low cost for the attacker. We extend a previously proposed crowdsourcing dilemma game to an iterated game to address this question. We enumerate pure evolutionarily stable strategies within the class of so-called reactive strategies, i.e., those depending on the last action of the opponent. Among the 4096 possible reactive strategies, we find 16 strategies each of which is stable in some parameter regions. Repeated encounters of the players can improve social welfare when the damage inflicted by an attack and the cost of attack are both small. Under the current framework, repeated interactions do not really ameliorate the crowdsourcing dilemma in a majority of the parameter space.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2014

Threshold Model for Triggered Avalanches on Networks

Based on a theoretical model for opinion spreading on a network, through avalanches, the effect of external field is now considered, by using methods from non-equilibrium statistical mechanics. The original part contains the implementation that the avalanche is only triggered when a local variable (a so called awareness) reaches and goes above a threshold. The dynamical rules are constrained to be as simple as possible, in order to sort out the basic features, though more elaborated variants are proposed. Several results are obtained for a Erdös-Rényi network and interpreted through simple analytical laws, scale free or logistic map-like, i.e., (i) the sizes, durations, and number of avalanches, including the respective distributions, (ii) the number of times the external field is applied to one possible node before all nodes are found to be above the threshold, (iii) the number of nodes still below the threshold and the number of hot nodes (close to threshold) at each time step.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2014

YASCA: A collective intelligence approach for community detection in complex networks

In this paper we present an original approach for community detection in complex networks. The approach belongs to the family of seed-centric algorithms. However, instead of expanding communities around selected seeds as most of existing approaches do, we explore here applying an ensemble clustering approach to different network partitions derived from ego-centered communities computed for each selected seed. Ego-centered communities are themselves computed applying a recently proposed ensemble ranking based approach that allow to efficiently combine various local modularities used to guide a greedy optimisation process. Results of first experiments on real world networks for which a ground truth decomposition into communities are known, argue for the validity of our approach.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

On the Potential of Twitter for Understanding the Tunisia of the Post-Arab Spring

Micro-blogging through Twitter has made information short and to the point, and more importantly systematically searchable. This work is the first of a series in which quotidian observations about Tunisia are obtained using the micro-blogging site Twitter. Data was extracted using the open source Twitter API v1.1. Specific tweets were obtained using functional search operators in particular thematic hash tags, geo-location, date, time and language. The presence of Tunisia in the international tweet stream, the language of communication of Tunisian residents through Twitter as well as Twitter usage across Tunisia are the center of attention of this article.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

Commercialization of fuel cells: myth or reality?

Despite huge investment and efforts in the last decades, fuel cells are still known as a fledgling industry after 170 years of the first fuel cell. It becomes clear that these investment and efforts did not address the critical questions. Why upscaling of fuel cells failed often when many researchers stated their successes in small scale? Why the fuel cells with simpler structure still lag far from the internal combustion (IC) engines and gas turbines? Could the current investment of the hydrogen infrastructure reduce substantially the fuel cell cost and make a breakthrough to the key issues of durability, reliability and robustness? In this paper, we study these fundamental questions and point out a must-way possible to reduce cost of fuel cells and to substantially improve durability and reliability.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2014

Parallel versus Sequential Update and the Evolution of Cooperation with the Assistance of Emotional Strategies

Our study contributes to the debate on the evolution of cooperation in the single-shot Prisoner's Dilemma (PD) played on networks. We construct a model in which individuals are connected with positive and negative ties. Some agents play sign-dependent strategies that use the sign of the relation as a shorthand for determining appropriate action toward the opponent. In the context of our model in which network topology, agent strategic types and relational signs coevolve, the presence of sign-dependent strategies catalyzes the evolution of cooperation. We highlight how the success of cooperation depends on a crucial aspect of implementation: whether we apply parallel or sequential strategy update. Parallel updating, with averaging of payoffs across interactions in the social neighborhood, supports cooperation in a much wider set of parameter values than sequential updating. Our results cast doubts about the realism and generalizability of models that claim to explain the evolution of cooperation but implicitly assume parallel updating.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2014

A Genetic Algorithm to Optimize a Tweet for Retweetability

Twitter is a popular microblogging platform. When users send out messages, other users have the ability to forward these messages to their own subgraph. Most research focuses on increasing retweetability from a node's perspective. Here, we center on improving message style to increase the chance of a message being forwarded. To this end, we simulate an artificial Twitter-like network with nodes deciding deterministically on retweeting a message or not. A genetic algorithm is used to optimize message composition, so that the reach of a message is increased. When analyzing the algorithm's runtime behavior across a set of different node types, we find that the algorithm consistently succeeds in significantly improving the retweetability of a message.

cs.NE↗

arXiv2014

Metapopulation epidemic models with heterogeneous mixing and travel behaviour

The complex interplay between population movements in space and non-homogeneous mixing patterns have so far hindered the fundamental understanding of the conditions for spatial invasion through a general theoretical framework. To address this issue, we present an analytical modelling approach taking into account such interplay under general conditions of mobility and interactions, in the simplifying assumption of two population classes. We describe a spatially structured population with non-homogeneous mixing and travel behaviour through a multi-host stochastic epidemic metapopulation model. Different population partitions, mixing patterns and mobility structures are considered, along with a specific application for the study of the role of age partition in the early spread of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza. We provide a complete mathematical formulation of the model and derive a semi-analytical expression of the threshold condition for global invasion of an emerging infectious disease in the metapopulation system. A rich solution space is found that depends on the social partition of the population, the pattern of contacts across groups and their relative social activity, the travel attitude of each class, and the topological and traffic features of the mobility network. Reducing the activity of the less social group and reducing the cross-group mixing are predicted to be the most efficient strategies for controlling the pandemic potential in the case the less active group constitutes the majority of travellers. If instead traveling is dominated by the more social class, our model predicts the existence of an optimal across-groups mixing that maximises the pandemic potential of the disease, whereas the impact of variations in the activity of each group is less important.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2014

Peer Ratings in Massive Online Social Networks

Instant quality feedback in the form of online peer ratings is a prominent feature of modern massive online social networks (MOSNs). It allows network members to indicate their appreciation of a post, comment, photograph, etc. Some MOSNs support both positive and negative (signed) ratings. In this study, we rated 11 thousand MOSN member profiles and collected user responses to the ratings. MOSN users are very sensitive to peer ratings: 33% of the subjects visited the researcher's profile in response to rating, 21% also rated the researcher's profile picture, and 5% left a text comment. The grades left by the subjects are highly polarized: out of the six available grades, the most negative and the most positive are also the most popular. The grades fall into three almost equally sized categories: reciprocal, generous, and stingy. We proposed quantitative measures for generosity, reciprocity, and benevolence, and analyzed them with respect to the subjects' demographics.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

How science maps reveal knowledge transfer: new measurement for a historical case

Modelling actors of science via science (overlay) maps has recently become a popular practice in Interdisciplinarity Research (IDR). The benefits of this toolkit have also been recognized for other areas of scientometrics, such as the study of science dynamics. In this paper we propose novel methods of measuring knowledge diffusion/integration based on previous applications of the overlay methodology. New indices called Mean Overlay Distance and Overlay Diversity Ratio, respectively, are being drawn from previous uses of the Stirling index as the main proxy for knowledge diversification. We demonstrate the added value of this proposal via a case study addressing the development of a rather complex discourse in biology, usually referred to as the Species Problem. The selected topic is known for a history connecting various research fields and traditions, being, therefore, both an ideal and challenging case for the study of knowledge diffusion.

cs.DL↗

arXiv2014

The Impact of Social Segregation on Human Mobility in Developing and Urbanized Regions

This study leverages mobile phone data to analyze human mobility patterns in developing countries, especially in comparison to more industrialized countries. Developing regions, such as the Ivory Coast, are marked by a number of factors that may influence mobility, such as less infrastructural coverage and maturity, less economic resources and stability, and in some cases, more cultural and language-based diversity. By comparing mobile phone data collected from the Ivory Coast to similar data collected in Portugal, we are able to highlight both qualitative and quantitative differences in mobility patterns - such as differences in likelihood to travel, as well as in the time required to travel - that are relevant to consideration on policy, infrastructure, and economic development. Our study illustrates how cultural and linguistic diversity in developing regions (such as Ivory Coast) can present challenges to mobility models that perform well and were conceptualized in less culturally diverse regions. Finally, we address these challenges by proposing novel techniques to assess the strength of borders in a regional partitioning scheme and to quantify the impact of border strength on mobility model accuracy.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

Worst-Case Scenarios for Greedy, Centrality-Based Network Protection Strategies

The task of allocating preventative resources to a computer network in order to protect against the spread of viruses is addressed. Virus spreading dynamics are described by a linearized SIS model and protection is framed by an optimization problem which maximizes the rate at which a virus in the network is contained given finite resources. One approach to problems of this type involve greedy heuristics which allocate all resources to the nodes with large centrality measures. We address the worst case performance of such greedy algorithms be constructing networks for which these greedy allocations are arbitrarily inefficient. An example application is presented in which such a worst case network might arise naturally and our results are verified numerically by leveraging recent results which allow the exact optimal solution to be computed via geometric programming.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

The Readability of Tweets and their Geographic Correlation with Education

Twitter has rapidly emerged as one of the largest worldwide venues for written communication. Thanks to the ease with which vast quantities of tweets can be mined, Twitter has also become a source for studying modern linguistic style. The readability of text has long provided a simple method to characterize the complexity of language and ease that documents may be understood by readers. In this note we use a modified version of the Flesch Reading Ease formula, applied to a corpus of 17.4 million tweets. We find tweets have characteristically more difficult readability scores compared to other short format communication, such as SMS or chat. This linguistic difference is insensitive to the presence of "hashtags" within tweets. By utilizing geographic data provided by 2% of users, joined with "ZIP Code Tabulation Area" (ZCTA) level education data from the U.S. Census, we find an intriguing correlation between the average readability and the college graduation rate within a ZCTA. This points towards a difference in either the underlying language, or a change in the type of content being tweeted in these areas

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

Planning the Future of U.S. Particle Physics (Snowmass 2013): Chapter 10: Communication, Education, and Outreach

These reports present the results of the 2013 Community Summer Study of the APS Division of Particles and Fields ("Snowmass 2013") on the future program of particle physics in the U.S. Chapter 10, on Communication, Education, and Outreach, discusses the resources and issues for the communication of information about particle physics to teachers and students, to scientists in other fields, to policy makers, and to the general public.

hep-ex↗

arXiv2014

Predicting Multi-actor collaborations using Hypergraphs

Social networks are now ubiquitous and most of them contain interactions involving multiple actors (groups) like author collaborations, teams or emails in an organizations, etc. Hypergraphs are natural structures to effectively capture multi-actor interactions which conventional dyadic graphs fail to capture. In this work the problem of predicting collaborations is addressed while modeling the collaboration network as a hypergraph network. The problem of predicting future multi-actor collaboration is mapped to hyperedge prediction problem. Given that the higher order edge prediction is an inherently hard problem, in this work we restrict to the task of predicting edges (collaborations) that have already been observed in past. In this work, we propose a novel use of hyperincidence temporal tensors to capture time varying hypergraphs and provides a tensor decomposition based prediction algorithm. We quantitatively compare the performance of the hypergraphs based approach with the conventional dyadic graph based approach. Our hypothesis that hypergraphs preserve the information that simple graphs destroy is corroborated by experiments using author collaboration network from the DBLP dataset. Our results demonstrate the strength of hypergraph based approach to predict higher order collaborations (size>4) which is very difficult using dyadic graph based approach. Moreover, while predicting collaborations of size>2 hypergraphs in most cases provide better results with an average increase of approx. 45% in F-Score for different sizes = {3,4,5,6,7}.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

Zombie Politics: Evolutionary Algorithms to Counteract the Spread of Negative Opinions

This paper is about simulating the spread of opinions in a society and about finding ways to counteract that spread. To abstract away from potentially emotionally laden opinions, we instead simulate the spread of a zombie outbreak in a society. The virus causing this outbreak is different from traditional approaches: it not only causes a binary outcome (healthy vs infected) but rather a continuous outcome. To counteract the outbreak, a discrete number of infection-level specific treatments is available. This corresponds to acts of mild persuasion or the threats of legal action in the opinion spreading use case. This paper offers a genetic and a cultural algorithm that find the optimal mixture of treatments during the run of the simulation. They are assessed in a number of different scenarios. It is shown, that albeit far from being perfect, the cultural algorithm delivers superior performance at lower computational expense.

cs.SI↗