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arXiv2014

Zero-Determinant Strategies in the Iterated Public Goods Game

Recently, Press and Dyson have proposed a new class of probabilistic and conditional strategies for the two-player iterated Prisoner's Dilemma, so-called zero-determinant strategies. A player adopting zero-determinant strategies is able to pin the expected payoff of the opponents or to enforce a linear relationship between his own payoff and the opponents' payoff, in a unilateral way. This paper considers zero-determinant strategies in the iterated public goods game, a representative multi-player evolutionary game where in each round each player will choose whether or not put his tokens into a public pot, and the tokens in this pot are multiplied by a factor larger than one and then evenly divided among all players. The analytical and numerical results exhibit a similar yet different scenario to the case of two-player games: (i) with small number of players or a small multiplication factor, a player is able to unilaterally pin the expected total payoff of all other players; (ii) a player is able to set the ratio between his payoff and the total payoff of all other players, but this ratio is limited by an upper bound if the multiplication factor exceeds a threshold that depends on the number of players.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2014

Power laws in citation distributions: Evidence from Scopus

Modeling distributions of citations to scientific papers is crucial for understanding how science develops. However, there is a considerable empirical controversy on which statistical model fits the citation distributions best. This paper is concerned with rigorous empirical detection of power-law behaviour in the distribution of citations received by the most highly cited scientific papers. We have used a large, novel data set on citations to scientific papers published between 1998 and 2002 drawn from Scopus. The power-law model is compared with a number of alternative models using a likelihood ratio test. We have found that the power-law hypothesis is rejected for around half of the Scopus fields of science. For these fields of science, the Yule, power-law with exponential cut-off and log-normal distributions seem to fit the data better than the pure power-law model. On the other hand, when the power-law hypothesis is not rejected, it is usually empirically indistinguishable from most of the alternative models. The pure power-law model seems to be the best model only for the most highly cited papers in "Physics and Astronomy". Overall, our results seem to support theories implying that the most highly cited scientific papers follow the Yule, power-law with exponential cut-off or log-normal distribution. Our findings suggest also that power laws in citation distributions, when present, account only for a very small fraction of the published papers (less than 1% for most of science fields) and that the power-law scaling parameter (exponent) is substantially higher (from around 3.2 to around 4.7) than found in the older literature.

cs.DL↗

arXiv2014

Simulating Congestion Dynamics of Train Rapid Transit using Smart Card Data

Investigating congestion in train rapid transit systems (RTS) in today's urban cities is a challenge compounded by limited data availability and difficulties in model validation. Here, we integrate information from travel smart card data, a mathematical model of route choice, and a full-scale agent-based model of the Singapore RTS to provide a more comprehensive understanding of the congestion dynamics than can be obtained through analytical modelling alone. Our model is empirically validated, and allows for close inspection of the dynamics including station crowdedness, average travel duration, and frequency of missed trains---all highly pertinent factors in service quality. Using current data, the crowdedness in all 121 stations appears to be distributed log-normally. In our preliminary scenarios, we investigate the effect of population growth on service quality. We find that the current population (2 million) lies below a critical point; and increasing it beyond a factor of $\sim10\%$ leads to an exponential deterioration in service quality. We also predict that incentivizing commuters to avoid the most congested hours can bring modest improvements to the service quality provided the population remains under the critical point. Finally, our model can be used to generate simulated data for analytical modelling when such data are not empirically available, as is often the case.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2014

Friendship Prediction in Composite Social Networks

Friendship prediction is an important task in social network analysis (SNA). It can help users identify friends and improve their level of activity. Most previous approaches predict users' friendship based on their historical records, such as their existing friendship, social interactions, etc. However, in reality, most users have limited friends in a single network, and the data can be very sparse. The sparsity problem causes existing methods to overfit the rare observations and suffer from serious performance degradation. This is particularly true when a new social network just starts to form. We observe that many of today's social networks are composite in nature, where people are often engaged in multiple networks. In addition, users' friendships are always correlated, for example, they are both friends on Facebook and Google+. Thus, by considering those overlapping users as the bridge, the friendship knowledge in other networks can help predict their friendships in the current network. This can be achieved by exploiting the knowledge in different networks in a collective manner. However, as each individual network has its own properties that can be incompatible and inconsistent with other networks, the naive merging of all networks into a single one may not work well. The proposed solution is to extract the common behaviors between different networks via a hierarchical Bayesian model. It captures the common knowledge across networks, while avoiding negative impacts due to network differences. Empirical studies demonstrate that the proposed approach improves the mean average precision of friendship prediction over state-of-the-art baselines on nine real-world social networking datasets significantly.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

Fractional Dynamics and Multi-Slide Model of Human Memory

We propose a single chunk model of long-term memory that combines the basic features of the ACT-R theory and the multiple trace memory architecture. The pivot point of the developed theory is a mathematical description of the creation of new memory traces caused by learning a certain fragment of information pattern and affected by the fragments of this pattern already retained by the current moment of time. Using the available psychological and physiological data these constructions are justified. The final equation governing the learning and forgetting processes is constructed in the form of the differential equation with the Caputo type fractional time derivative. Several characteristic situations of the learning (continuous and discontinuous) and forgetting processes are studied numerically. In particular, it is demonstrated that, first, the "learning" and "forgetting" exponents of the corresponding power laws of the memory fractional dynamics should be regarded as independent system parameters. Second, as far as the spacing effects are concerned, the longer the discontinuous learning process, the longer the time interval within which a subject remembers the information without its considerable lost. Besides, the latter relationship is a linear proportionality.

q-bio.NC↗

arXiv2014

Ambiguity in language networks

Human language defines the most complex outcomes of evolution. The emergence of such an elaborated form of communication allowed humans to create extremely structured societies and manage symbols at different levels including, among others, semantics. All linguistic levels have to deal with an astronomic combinatorial potential that stems from the recursive nature of languages. This recursiveness is indeed a key defining trait. However, not all words are equally combined nor frequent. In breaking the symmetry between less and more often used and between less and more meaning-bearing units, universal scaling laws arise. Such laws, common to all human languages, appear on different stages from word inventories to networks of interacting words. Among these seemingly universal traits exhibited by language networks, ambiguity appears to be a specially relevant component. Ambiguity is avoided in most computational approaches to language processing, and yet it seems to be a crucial element of language architecture. Here we review the evidence both from language network architecture and from theoretical reasonings based on a least effort argument. Ambiguity is shown to play an essential role in providing a source of language efficiency, and is likely to be an inevitable byproduct of network growth.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2014

Evaluation of node importance in complex networks

The assessment of node importance has been a fundamental issue in the research of complex networks. In this paper, we propose to use the Shannon-Parry measure (SPM) to evaluate the importance of a node quantitatively, because SPM is the stationary distribution of the most unprejudiced random walk on the network. We demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of SPM compared with several popular methods in the Zachary karate club network and three toy networks. We apply SPM to analyze the city importance of China Railways High-speed (CRH) network, and obtain reasonable results. Since SPM can be used effectively in weighted and directed network, we believe it is a relevant method to identify key nodes in networks.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

Node seniority ranking

Recent advances in graph theory suggest that is possible to identify the oldest nodes of a network using only the graph topology. Here we report on applications to heterogeneous real world networks. To this end, and in order to gain new insights, we propose the theoretical framework of the Estrada communicability. We apply it to two technological networks (an underground, the diffusion of a software worm in a LAN) and to a third network representing a cholera outbreak. In spite of errors introduced in the adjacency matrix of their graphs, the identification of the oldest nodes is feasible, within a small margin of error, and extremely simple. Utilizations include the search of the initial disease-spreader (patient zero problem), rumors in social networks, malware in computer networks, triggering events in blackouts, oldest urban sites recognition.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2014

A categorization scheme for socialbot attacks in online social networks

In the past, online social networks (OSN) like Facebook and Twitter became powerful instruments for communication and networking. Unfortunately, they have also become a welcome target for socialbot attacks. Therefore, a deep understanding of the nature of such attacks is important to protect the Eco-System of OSNs. In this extended abstract we propose a categorization scheme of social bot attacks that aims at providing an overview of the state of the art of techniques in this emerging field. Finally, we demonstrate the usefulness of our categorization scheme by characterizing recent socialbot attacks according to our categorization scheme.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

Understanding the impact of socialbot attacks in online social networks

Online social networks (OSN) like Twitter or Facebook are popular and powerful since they allow reaching millions of users online. They are also a popular target for socialbot attacks. Without a deep understanding of the impact of such attacks, the potential of online social networks as an instrument for facilitating discourse or democratic processes is in jeopardy. In this extended abstract we present insights from a live lab experiment in which social bots aimed at manipulating the social graph of an online social network, in our case Twitter. We explored the link creation behavior between targeted human users and our results suggest that socialbots may indeed have the ability to shape and influence the social graph in online social networks. However, our results also show that external factors may play an important role in the creation of social links in OSNs.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

On the influence of topological characteristics on robustness of complex networks

In this paper, we explore the relationship between the topological characteristics of a complex network and its robustness to sustained targeted attacks. Using synthesised scale-free, small-world and random networks, we look at a number of network measures, including assortativity, modularity, average path length, clustering coefficient, rich club profiles and scale-free exponent (where applicable) of a network, and how each of these influence the robustness of a network under targeted attacks. We use an established robustness coefficient to measure topological robustness, and consider sustained targeted attacks by order of node degree. With respect to scale-free networks, we show that assortativity, modularity and average path length have a positive correlation with network robustness, whereas clustering coefficient has a negative correlation. We did not find any correlation between scale-free exponent and robustness, or rich-club profiles and robustness. The robustness of small-world networks on the other hand, show substantial positive correlations with assortativity, modularity, clustering coefficient and average path length. In comparison, the robustness of Erdos-Renyi random networks did not have any significant correlation with any of the network properties considered. A significant observation is that high clustering decreases topological robustness in scale-free networks, yet it increases topological robustness in small-world networks. Our results highlight the importance of topological characteristics in influencing network robustness, and illustrate design strategies network designers can use to increase the robustness of scale-free and small-world networks under sustained targeted attacks.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2014

Considerations about multistep community detection

The problem and implications of community detection in networks have raised a huge attention, for its important applications in both natural and social sciences. A number of algorithms has been developed to solve this problem, addressing either speed optimization or the quality of the partitions calculated. In this paper we propose a multi-step procedure bridging the fastest, but less accurate algorithms (coarse clustering), with the slowest, most effective ones (refinement). By adopting heuristic ranking of the nodes, and classifying a fraction of them as `critical', a refinement step can be restricted to this subset of the network, thus saving computational time. Preliminary numerical results are discussed, showing improvement of the final partition.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

Applications of Structural Balance in Signed Social Networks

We present measures, models and link prediction algorithms based on the structural balance in signed social networks. Certain social networks contain, in addition to the usual 'friend' links, 'enemy' links. These networks are called signed social networks. A classical and major concept for signed social networks is that of structural balance, i.e., the tendency of triangles to be 'balanced' towards including an even number of negative edges, such as friend-friend-friend and friend-enemy-enemy triangles. In this article, we introduce several new signed network analysis methods that exploit structural balance for measuring partial balance, for finding communities of people based on balance, for drawing signed social networks, and for solving the problem of link prediction. Notably, the introduced methods are based on the signed graph Laplacian and on the concept of signed resistance distances. We evaluate our methods on a collection of four signed social network datasets.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

'Beating the news' with EMBERS: Forecasting Civil Unrest using Open Source Indicators

We describe the design, implementation, and evaluation of EMBERS, an automated, 24x7 continuous system for forecasting civil unrest across 10 countries of Latin America using open source indicators such as tweets, news sources, blogs, economic indicators, and other data sources. Unlike retrospective studies, EMBERS has been making forecasts into the future since Nov 2012 which have been (and continue to be) evaluated by an independent T&E team (MITRE). Of note, EMBERS has successfully forecast the uptick and downtick of incidents during the June 2013 protests in Brazil. We outline the system architecture of EMBERS, individual models that leverage specific data sources, and a fusion and suppression engine that supports trading off specific evaluation criteria. EMBERS also provides an audit trail interface that enables the investigation of why specific predictions were made along with the data utilized for forecasting. Through numerous evaluations, we demonstrate the superiority of EMBERS over baserate methods and its capability to forecast significant societal happenings.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

Multi-fractal analysis of weighted networks

In many real complex networks, the fractal and self-similarity properties have been found. The fractal dimension is a useful method to describe fractal property of complex networks. Fractal analysis is inadequate if only taking one fractal dimension to study complex networks. In this case, multifractal analysis of complex networks are concerned. However, multifractal dimension of weighted networks are less involved. In this paper, multifractal dimension of weighted networks is proposed based on box-covering algorithm for fractal dimension of weighted networks (BCANw). The proposed method is applied to calculate the fractal dimensions of some real networks. Our numerical results indicate that the proposed method is efficient for analysis fractal property of weighted networks.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2014

Predicting Scientific Success Based on Coauthorship Networks

We address the question to what extent the success of scientific articles is due to social influence. Analyzing a data set of over 100000 publications from the field of Computer Science, we study how centrality in the coauthorship network differs between authors who have highly cited papers and those who do not. We further show that a machine learning classifier, based only on coauthorship network centrality measures at time of publication, is able to predict with high precision whether an article will be highly cited five years after publication. By this we provide quantitative insight into the social dimension of scientific publishing - challenging the perception of citations as an objective, socially unbiased measure of scientific success.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2014

Epidemiological consequences of an ineffective Bordetella pertussis vaccine

The recent increase in Bordetella pertussis incidence (whooping cough) presents a challenge to global health. Recent studies have called into question the effectiveness of acellular B. pertussis vaccination in reducing transmission. Here we examine the epidemiological consequences of an ineffective B. pertussis vaccine. Using a dynamic transmission model, we find that: 1) an ineffective vaccine can account for the observed increase in B. pertussis incidence; 2) asymptomatic infections can bias surveillance and upset situational awareness of B. pertussis; and 3) vaccinating individuals in close contact with infants too young to receive vaccine (so called "cocooning" unvaccinated children) may be ineffective. Our results have important implications for B. pertussis vaccination policy and paint a complicated picture for achieving herd immunity and possible B. pertussis eradication.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2014

The path most travelled: Mining road usage patterns from massive call data

Rapid urbanization places increasing stress on already burdened transportation systems, resulting in delays and poor levels of service. Billions of spatiotemporal call detail records (CDRs) collected from mobile devices create new opportunities to quantify and solve these problems. However, there is a need for tools to map new data onto existing transportation infrastructure. In this work, we propose a system that leverages this data to identify patterns in road usage. First, we develop an algorithm to mine billions of calls and learn location transition probabilities of callers. These transition probabilities are then upscaled with demographic data to estimate origin-destination (OD) flows of residents between any two intersections of a city. Next, we implement a distributed incremental traffic assignment algorithm to route these flows on road networks and estimate congestion and level of service for each roadway. From this assignment, we construct a bipartite usage network by connecting census tracts to the roads used by their inhabitants. Comparing the topologies of the physical road network and bipartite usage network allows us to classify each road's role in a city's transportation network and detect causes of local bottlenecks. Finally, we demonstrate an interactive, web-based visualization platform that allows researchers, policymakers, and drivers to explore road congestion and usage in a new dimension. To demonstrate the flexibility of this system, we perform these analyses in multiple cities across the globe with diverse geographical and sociodemographic qualities. This platform provides a foundation to build congestion mitigation solutions and generate new insights into urban mobility.

physics.soc-ph↗