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arXiv2014

Netconomics: Novel Forecasting Techniques from the Combination of Big Data, Network Science and Economics

The combination of the network theoretic approach with recently available abundant economic data leads to the development of novel analytic and computational tools for modelling and forecasting key economic indicators. The main idea is to introduce a topological component into the analysis, taking into account consistently all higher-order interactions. We present three basic methodologies to demonstrate different approaches to harness the resulting network gain. First, a multiple linear regression optimisation algorithm is used to generate a relational network between individual components of national balance of payment accounts. This model describes annual statistics with a high accuracy and delivers good forecasts for the majority of indicators. Second, an early-warning mechanism for global financial crises is presented, which combines network measures with standard economic indicators. From the analysis of the cross-border portfolio investment network of long-term debt securities, the proliferation of a wide range of over-the-counter-traded financial derivative products, such as credit default swaps, can be described in terms of gross-market values and notional outstanding amounts, which are associated with increased levels of market interdependence and systemic risk. Third, considering the flow-network of goods traded between G-20 economies, network statistics provide better proxies for key economic measures than conventional indicators. For example, it is shown that a country's gate-keeping potential, as a measure for local power, projects its annual change of GDP generally far better than the volume of its imports or exports.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2014

How to Network in Online Social Networks

In this paper, we consider how to maximize users' influence in Online Social Networks (OSNs) by exploiting social relationships only. Our first contribution is to extend to OSNs the model of Kempe et al. [1] on the propagation of information in a social network and to show that a greedy algorithm is a good approximation of the optimal algorithm that is NP-hard. However, the greedy algorithm requires global knowledge, which is hardly practical. Our second contribution is to show on simulations on the full Twitter social graph that simple and practical strategies perform close to the greedy algorithm.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

Proposal for a Correction to the Temporal Correlation Coefficient Calculation for Temporal Networks

Measuring the topological overlap of two graphs becomes important when assessing the changes between temporally adjacent graphs in a time-evolving network. Current methods depend on the fraction of nodes that have persisting edges. This breaks down when there are nodes with no edges, persisting or otherwise. The following outlines a proposed correction to ensure that correlation metrics have the expected behavior.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2014

Vaccines, Contagion, and Social Networks

Consider the causal effect that one individual's treatment may have on another individual's outcome when the outcome is contagious, with specific application to the effect of vaccination on an infectious disease outcome. The effect of one individual's vaccination on another's outcome can be decomposed into two different causal effects, called the "infectiousness" and "contagion" effects. We present identifying assumptions and estimation or testing procedures for infectiousness and contagion effects in two different settings: (1) using data sampled from independent groups of observations, and (2) using data collected from a single interdependent social network. The methods that we propose for social network data require fitting generalized linear models (GLMs). GLMs and other statistical models that require independence across subjects have been used widely to estimate causal effects in social network data, but, because the subjects in networks are presumably not independent, the use of such models is generally invalid, resulting in inference that is expected to be anticonservative. We introduce a way to ensure that GLM residuals are uncorrelated across subjects despite the fact that outcomes are non-independent. This simultaneously demonstrates the possibility of using GLMs and related statistical models for network data and highlights their limitations.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2014

Mining Concurrent Topical Activity in Microblog Streams

Streams of user-generated content in social media exhibit patterns of collective attention across diverse topics, with temporal structures determined both by exogenous factors and endogenous factors. Teasing apart different topics and resolving their individual, concurrent, activity timelines is a key challenge in extracting knowledge from microblog streams. Facing this challenge requires the use of methods that expose latent signals by using term correlations across posts and over time. Here we focus on content posted to Twitter during the London 2012 Olympics, for which a detailed schedule of events is independently available and can be used for reference. We mine the temporal structure of topical activity by using two methods based on non-negative matrix factorization. We show that for events in the Olympics schedule that can be semantically matched to Twitter topics, the extracted Twitter activity timeline closely matches the known timeline from the schedule. Our results show that, given appropriate techniques to detect latent signals, Twitter can be used as a social sensor to extract topical-temporal information on real-world events at high temporal resolution.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2014

Lifespan and propagation of information in On-line Social Networks a Case Study

Since 1950, information flows have been in the centre of scientific research. Up until internet penetration in the late 90s, these studies were based over traditional offline social networks. Several observations in offline information flows studies, such as two-step flow of communication and the importance of weak ties, were verified in several online studies, showing that the diffused information flows from one Online Social Network (OSN) to several others. Within that flow, information is shared to and reproduced by the users of each network. Furthermore, the original content is enhanced or weakened according to its topic, the dynamic and exposure of each OSNs. In such a concept, each OSN is considered a layer of information flows that interacts with each other. In this paper, we examine such flows in several social networks, as well as their diffusion and lifespan across multiple OSNs, in terms of user-generated content. Our results verify the perception of content and information connection in various OSNs.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

Historical building stability monitoring by means of a cosmic ray tracking system

Cosmic ray radiation is mostly composed, at sea level, by high energy muons, which are highly penetrating particles capable of crossing kilometers of rock. Cosmic ray radiation constituted the first source of projectiles used to investigate the intimate structure of matter and is currently and largely used for particle detector test and calibration. The ubiquitous and steady presence at the Earth's surface and the high penetration capability has motivated the use of cosmic ray radiation also in fields beyond particle physics, from geological and archaeological studies to industrial applications and civil security. In the present paper, cosmic ray muon detection techniques are assessed for stability monitoring applications in the field of civil engineering, in particular for static monitoring of historical buildings, where conservation constraints are more severe and the time evolution of the deformation phenomena under study may be of the order of months or years. As a significant case study, the monitoring of the wooden vaulted roof of the "Palazzo della Loggia" in the town of Brescia, in Italy, has been considered. The feasibility as well as the performances and limitations of a monitoring system based on cosmic ray tracking, in the considered case, have been studied by Monte Carlo simulation and discussed in comparison with more traditional monitoring systems. Requirements for muon detectors suitable for this particular application, as well as the results of some preliminary tests on a muon detector prototype based on scintillating fibers and silicon photomultipliers SiPM are presented.

physics.ins-det↗

arXiv2014

Do Google Trend data contain more predictability than price returns?

Using non-linear machine learning methods and a proper backtest procedure, we critically examine the claim that Google Trends can predict future price returns. We first review the many potential biases that may influence backtests with this kind of data positively, the choice of keywords being by far the greatest culprit. We then argue that the real question is whether such data contain more predictability than price returns themselves: our backtest yields a performance of about 17bps per week which only weakly depends on the kind of data on which predictors are based, i.e. either past price returns or Google Trends data, or both.

q-fin.TR↗

arXiv2014

On the evolution and utility of annual citation indices

We study the statistics of citations made to the top ranked indexed journals for Science and Social Science databases in the Journal Citation Reports using different measures. Total annual citation and impact factor, as well as a third measure called the annual citation rate are used to make the detailed analysis. We observe that the distribution of the annual citation rate has an universal feature - it shows a maximum at the rate scaled by half the average, irrespective of how the journals are ranked, and even across Science and Social Science journals, and fits well to log-Gumbel distribution. Correlations between different quantities are studied and a comparative analysis of the three measures is presented. The newly introduced annual citation rate factor helps in understanding the effect of scaling the number of citation by the total number of publications. The effect of the impact factor on authors contributing to the journals as well as on editorial policies is also discussed.

cs.DL↗

arXiv2014

Beyond network structure: How heterogenous susceptibility modulates the spread of epidemics

The compartmental models used to study epidemic spreading often assume the same susceptibility for all individuals, and are therefore, agnostic about the effects that differences in susceptibility can have on epidemic spreading. Here we show that--for the SIS model--differential susceptibility can make networks more vulnerable to the spread of diseases when the correlation between a node's degree and susceptibility are positive, and less vulnerable when this correlation is negative. Moreover, we show that networks become more likely to contain a pocket of infection when individuals are more likely to connect with others that have similar susceptibility (the network is segregated). These results show that the failure to include differential susceptibility to epidemic models can lead to a systematic over/under estimation of fundamental epidemic parameters when the structure of the networks is not independent from the susceptibility of the nodes or when there are correlations between the susceptibility of connected individuals.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2014

The Bursty Dynamics of the Twitter Information Network

In online social media systems users are not only posting, consuming, and resharing content, but also creating new and destroying existing connections in the underlying social network. While each of these two types of dynamics has individually been studied in the past, much less is known about the connection between the two. How does user information posting and seeking behavior interact with the evolution of the underlying social network structure? Here, we study ways in which network structure reacts to users posting and sharing content. We examine the complete dynamics of the Twitter information network, where users post and reshare information while they also create and destroy connections. We find that the dynamics of network structure can be characterized by steady rates of change, interrupted by sudden bursts. Information diffusion in the form of cascades of post re-sharing often creates such sudden bursts of new connections, which significantly change users' local network structure. These bursts transform users' networks of followers to become structurally more cohesive as well as more homogenous in terms of follower interests. We also explore the effect of the information content on the dynamics of the network and find evidence that the appearance of new topics and real-world events can lead to significant changes in edge creations and deletions. Lastly, we develop a model that quantifies the dynamics of the network and the occurrence of these bursts as a function of the information spreading through the network. The model can successfully predict which information diffusion events will lead to bursts in network dynamics.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

Studying Gender in Conference Talks -- data from the 223rd meeting of the American Astronomical Society

We present a study on the gender balance, in speakers and attendees, at the recent major astronomical conference, the American Astronomical Society meeting 223, in Washington, DC. We conducted an informal survey, yielding over 300 responses by volunteers at the meeting. Each response included gender data about a single talk given at the meeting, recording the gender of the speaker and all question-askers. In total, 225 individual AAS talks were sampled. We analyze basic statistical properties of this sample. We find that the gender ratio of the speakers closely matched the gender ratio of the conference attendees. The audience asked an average of 2.8 questions per talk. Talks given by women had a slightly higher number of questions asked (3.2$\pm$0.2) than talks given by men (2.6$\pm$0.1). The most significant result from this study is that while the gender ratio of speakers very closely mirrors that of conference attendees, women are under-represented in the question-asker category. We interpret this to be an age-effect, as senior scientists may be more likely to ask questions, and are more commonly men. A strong dependence on the gender of session chairs is found, whereby women ask disproportionately fewer questions in sessions chaired by men. While our results point to laudable progress in gender-balanced speaker selection, we believe future surveys of this kind would help ensure that collaboration at such meetings is as inclusive as possible.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2014

Engaging with Massive Online Courses

The Web has enabled one of the most visible recent developments in education---the deployment of massive open online courses. With their global reach and often staggering enrollments, MOOCs have the potential to become a major new mechanism for learning. Despite this early promise, however, MOOCs are still relatively unexplored and poorly understood. In a MOOC, each student's complete interaction with the course materials takes place on the Web, thus providing a record of learner activity of unprecedented scale and resolution. In this work, we use such trace data to develop a conceptual framework for understanding how users currently engage with MOOCs. We develop a taxonomy of individual behavior, examine the different behavioral patterns of high- and low-achieving students, and investigate how forum participation relates to other parts of the course. We also report on a large-scale deployment of badges as incentives for engagement in a MOOC, including randomized experiments in which the presentation of badges was varied across sub-populations. We find that making badges more salient produced increases in forum engagement.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

Fractal multi-level organisation of human groups in a virtual world

Humans are fundamentally social. They have progressively dominated their environment by the strength and creativity provided by and within their grouping. It is well recognised that human groups are highly structured, and the anthropological literature has loosely classified them according to their size and function, such as support cliques, sympathy groups, bands, cognitive groups, tribes, linguistic groups and so on. Recently, combining data on human grouping patterns in a comprehensive and systematic study, Zhou et al. identified a quantitative discrete hierarchy of group sizes with a preferred scaling ratio close to $3$, which was later confirmed for hunter-gatherer groups and for other mammalian societies. Using high precision large scale Internet-based social network data, we extend these early findings on a very large data set. We analyse the organisational structure of a complete, multi-relational, large social multiplex network of a human society consisting of about 400,000 odd players of a massive multiplayer online game for which we know all about the group memberships of every player. Remarkably, the online players exhibit the same type of structured hierarchical layers as the societies studied by anthropologists, where each of these layers is three to four times the size of the lower layer. Our findings suggest that the hierarchical organisation of human society is deeply nested in human psychology.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2014

Collective attention in the age of (mis)information

In this work we study, on a sample of 2.3 million individuals, how Facebook users consumed different information at the edge of political discussion and news during the last Italian electoral competition. Pages are categorized, according to their topics and the communities of interests they pertain to, in a) alternative information sources (diffusing topics that are neglected by science and main stream media); b) online political activism; and c) main stream media. We show that attention patterns are similar despite the different qualitative nature of the information, meaning that unsubstantiated claims (mainly conspiracy theories) reverberate for as long as other information. Finally, we categorize users according to their interaction patterns among the different topics and measure how a sample of this social ecosystem (1279 users) responded to the injection of 2788 false information posts. Our analysis reveals that users which are prominently interacting with alternative information sources (i.e. more exposed to unsubstantiated claims) are more prone to interact with false claims.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

Learning the Latent State Space of Time-Varying Graphs

From social networks to Internet applications, a wide variety of electronic communication tools are producing streams of graph data; where the nodes represent users and the edges represent the contacts between them over time. This has led to an increased interest in mechanisms to model the dynamic structure of time-varying graphs. In this work, we develop a framework for learning the latent state space of a time-varying email graph. We show how the framework can be used to find subsequences that correspond to global real-time events in the Email graph (e.g. vacations, breaks, ...etc.). These events impact the underlying graph process to make its characteristics non-stationary. Within the framework, we compare two different representations of the temporal relationships; discrete vs. probabilistic. We use the two representations as inputs to a mixture model to learn the latent state transitions that correspond to important changes in the Email graph structure over time.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

Graph Sample and Hold: A Framework for Big-Graph Analytics

Sampling is a standard approach in big-graph analytics; the goal is to efficiently estimate the graph properties by consulting a sample of the whole population. A perfect sample is assumed to mirror every property of the whole population. Unfortunately, such a perfect sample is hard to collect in complex populations such as graphs (e.g. web graphs, social networks etc), where an underlying network connects the units of the population. Therefore, a good sample will be representative in the sense that graph properties of interest can be estimated with a known degree of accuracy. While previous work focused particularly on sampling schemes used to estimate certain graph properties (e.g. triangle count), much less is known for the case when we need to estimate various graph properties with the same sampling scheme. In this paper, we propose a generic stream sampling framework for big-graph analytics, called Graph Sample and Hold (gSH). To begin, the proposed framework samples from massive graphs sequentially in a single pass, one edge at a time, while maintaining a small state. We then show how to produce unbiased estimators for various graph properties from the sample. Given that the graph analysis algorithms will run on a sample instead of the whole population, the runtime complexity of these algorithm is kept under control. Moreover, given that the estimators of graph properties are unbiased, the approximation error is kept under control. Finally, we show the performance of the proposed framework (gSH) on various types of graphs, such as social graphs, among others.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

A new network node similarity measure method and its applications

Network node similarity measure has been paid particular attention in the field of statistical physics. In this paper, we utilize the concept of information and information loss to measure the node similarity. The whole model is based on this idea that if two nodes are more similar than the others, then the information loss of seeing them as the same is less. The present new method has low algorithm complexity so that it can save much time and energy to deal with the large scale real-world network. We illustrate the availability of this approach based on two artificial examples and computer-generated networks by comparing its accuracy with the other selected approaches. The above tests demonstrate that the new method can provide more reasonable results consistent with our human common judgment. The new similarity measure method is also applied to predict the network evolution and predict unknown nodes' attributions in the two application examples.

physics.soc-ph↗