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Multivariate Matérn Models -- A Spectral Approach

The classical Matérn model has been a staple in spatial statistics. Novel data-rich applications in environmental and physical sciences, however, call for new, flexible vector-valued spatial and space-time models. Therefore, the extension of the classical Matérn model has been a problem of active theoretical and methodological interest. In this paper, we offer a new perspective to extending the Matérn covariance model to the vector-valued setting. We adopt a spectral, stochastic integral approach, which allows us to address challenging issues on the validity of the covariance structure and at the same time to obtain new, flexible, and interpretable models. In particular, our multivariate extensions of the Matérn model allow for asymmetric covariance structures. Moreover, the spectral approach provides an essentially complete flexibility in modeling the local structure of the process. We establish closed-form representations of the cross-covariances when available, compare them with existing models, simulate Gaussian instances of these new processes, and demonstrate estimation of the model's parameters through maximum likelihood. An application of the new class of multivariate Matérn models to environmental data indicate their success in capturing inherent covariance-asymmetry phenomena.

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Monografía de Estadística Bayesiana

Course notes about an introduction to Bayesian Statistics. First, an explanation of the bayesian paradigm is motivated and explained in detail (first three chapters). Then, a brief introduction to the basics about Decision Theory in chapter four, which is self contained, with the purpose of introducing parametrica bayesian inference as a decision problem in chapter five.

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Creating Community in a Data Science Classroom

A community is a collection of people who know and care about each other. The vast majority of college courses are not communities. This is especially true of statistics and data science courses, both because our classes are larger and because we are more likely to lecture. However, it is possible to create a community in your classroom. This article offers an idiosyncratic set of practices for creating community. I have used these techniques successfully in first and second semester statistics courses with enrollments ranging from 40 to 120. The key steps are knowing names, cold calling, classroom seating, a shallow learning curve, Study Halls, Recitations and rotating-one-on-one final project presentations.

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How do ASA Ethical Guidelines Support U.S. Guidelines for Official Statistics?

In 2022, the American Statistical Association revised its Ethical Guidelines for Statistical Practice. Originally issued in 1982, these Guidelines describe responsibilities of the 'ethical statistical practitioner' to their profession, to their research subjects, as well as to their community of practice. These guidelines are intended as a framework to assist decision-making by statisticians working across academic, research, and government environments. For the first time, the 2022 Guidelines describe the ethical obligations of organizations and institutions that use statistical practice. This paper examines alignment between the ASA Ethical Guidelines and other long-established normative guidelines for US official statistics: the OMB Statistical Policy Directives 1, 2, and 2a NASEM Principles and Practices, and the OMB Data Ethics Tenets. Our analyses ask how the recently updated ASA Ethical Guidelines can support these guidelines for federal statistics and data science. The analysis uses a form of qualitative content analysis, the alignment model, to identify patterns of alignment, and potential for tensions, within and across guidelines. The paper concludes with recommendations to policy makers when using ethical guidance to establish parameters for policy change and the administrative and technical controls that necessarily follow.

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How does international guidance for statistical practice align with the ASA Ethical Guidelines?

Gillikin (2017) defines a 'practice standard' as a document to 'define the way the profession's body of knowledge is ethically translated into day-to-day activities' (Gillikin 2017, p. 1). Such documents fulfill three objectives: they 1) define the profession; 2) communicate uniform standards to stakeholders; and 3) reduce conflicts between personal and professional conduct (Gillikin, 2017 p. 2). However, there are many guidelines - this is due to different purposes that guidance writers may have, as well as to the fact that there are different audiences for the many guidance documents. The existence of diverse statements do not necessarily make it clear that there are commonalities; and while some statements are explicitly aspirational, professionals as well as the public need to know that ethically-trained practitioners follow accepted practice standards. This paper applies the methodological approach described in Tractenberg (2023) and demonstrated in Park and Tractenberg (2023) to study alignment among international guidance for official statistics, and between these guidance documents and the ASA Ethical Guidelines for Statistical Practice functioning as an ethical practice standard (Tractenberg, 2022-A, 2022-B; after Gillikin 2017). In the spirit of exchanging experiences and lessons learned, we discuss how our findings could inform closer examination, clarification, and, if beneficial, possible revision of guidance in the future.

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Classroom Community amid Covid-19: A Mixed-Methods Study of Undergraduate Students in Introductory Mathematics and Statistics

A strong sense of classroom community is associated with many positive learning outcomes and is a critical contributor to undergraduate students' persistence in STEM, particularly for women and students of color. This chapter describes a mixed-methods investigation into the relationship between classroom community and course attributes in introductory undergraduate mathematics and statistics courses, mediated by student demographics. The project was motivated by and conducted amid the Covid-19 pandemic: data were collected from online courses in the 2021-21 academic year and from hybrid and in-person courses in the 2021-22 academic year. Quantitative data was gathered from both students and instructors and analyzed using structural equation modeling. The primary instrument was the validated Classroom Community Scale - Short Form. These quantitative results are complemented and contextualized by thematic and textual analyses of focus group data, gathered using a newly developed protocol piloted during the 2021-22 academic year. All data comes from a highly selective private university in the United States. Preliminary practical implications of the study include the value of synchronous participation in fostering connectedness and the importance of attending to students' personal identities in understanding their experiences of belonging.

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Statistics for Machine Learning with Mathematica Applications

In recent years, the field of statistics has experienced a surge in interest and application, largely due to significant advances in computer technology. This progress has led to remarkable developments in statistics methods and algorithms, enabling their widespread adoption across various disciplines. Key areas benefiting from these advancements include machine learning, economics, finance, geophysics, molecular modeling, computational systems biology, operations research, and engineering. For example, in machine learning, statistics forms the foundation for algorithms used in regression, classification, clustering, and deep learning to analyze vast datasets and make predictions. Mathematica, among other tools, has played a significant role in enabling the integration of statistics and computer technology, facilitating deeper exploration of data-driven insights and groundbreaking discoveries across diverse domains. With a rich library of functions, Mathematica allows users to calculate measures of central tendency, dispersion, and correlation, as well as perform hypothesis testing and estimation. Moreover, it supports probability distributions, making simulations and probabilistic modeling tasks more accessible. This monograph presents the main theorems in mathematical statistics, ranging from basic descriptive statistics to sophisticated inferential techniques. In addition, we have created, more than 200 manipulates cover different scenarios in statistics, more than 500 light Mathematica codes (examples) and 25 programs (procedures) that follow the principles of testing hypotheses and estimation theory. The code will run as-is with no code from prior algorithms or third parties required beyond the installation of Mathematica.

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Data Science at the Singularity

A purported `AI Singularity' has been in the public eye recently. Mass media and US national political attention focused on `AI Doom' narratives hawked by social media influencers. The European Commission is announcing initiatives to forestall `AI Extinction'. In my opinion, `AI Singularity' is the wrong narrative for what's happening now; recent happenings signal something else entirely. Something fundamental to computation-based research really changed in the last ten years. In certain fields, progress is dramatically more rapid than previously, as the fields undergo a transition to frictionless reproducibility (FR). This transition markedly changes the rate of spread of ideas and practices, affects mindsets, and erases memories of much that came before. The emergence of frictionless reproducibility follows from the maturation of 3 data science principles in the last decade. Those principles involve data sharing, code sharing, and competitive challenges, however implemented in the particularly strong form of frictionless open services. Empirical Machine Learning (EML) is todays leading adherent field, and its consequent rapid changes are responsible for the AI progress we see. Still, other fields can and do benefit when they adhere to the same principles. Many rapid changes from this maturation are misidentified. The advent of FR in EML generates a steady flow of innovations; this flow stimulates outsider intuitions that there's an emergent superpower somewhere in AI. This opens the way for PR to push worrying narratives: not only `AI Extinction', but also the supposed monopoly of big tech on AI research. The helpful narrative observes that the superpower of EML is adherence to frictionless reproducibility practices; these practices are responsible for the striking progress in AI that we see everywhere.

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The fiducial-Bayes fusion: A general theory of statistical inference

An overview is presented of a general theory of statistical inference that is referred to as the fiducial-Bayes fusion. This theory combines organic fiducial inference and Bayesian inference. The aim is that the reader is given a clear summary of the conceptual framework of the fiducial-Bayes fusion as well as pointers to further reading about its more technical aspects. Particular attention is paid to the issue of how much importance should be attached to the role of Bayesian inference within this framework. The appendix contains a substantive example of the application of the theory of the fiducial-Bayes fusion, which supplements various other examples of the application of this theory that are referenced in the paper.

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On Fractional Spherically Restricted Hyperbolic Diffusion Random Field

The paper investigates solutions of the fractional hyperbolic diffusion equation in its most general form with two fractional derivatives of distinct orders. The solutions are given as spatial-temporal homogeneous and isotropic random fields and their spherical restrictions are studied. The spectral representations of these fields are derived and the associated angular spectrum is analysed. The obtained mathematical results are illustrated by numerical examples. In addition, the numerical investigations assess the dependence of the covariance structure and other properties of these fields on the orders of fractional derivatives.

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Teaching Resources for Embedding Ethics in Mathematics: Exercises, Projects, and Handouts

The resources compiled in this document provide an approach to embed and teach Ethics in Mathematics at the undergraduate level. We provide mathematical exercises and homework problems that teach students ethical awareness and transferable skills, for many of the standard courses in the first and second years of a university degree in mathematics or related courses with significant mathematical content (e.g., physics, engineering, computer science, economics, etc). In addition to the exercises, this document also contains a list of projects, essay topics, and handouts for use as final projects and in seminars. This is a living document, and additional contributions are welcome.

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Interview with Adrian Raftery

Professor Adrian E. Raftery is the Boeing International Professor of Statistics and Sociology, and an adjunct professor of Atmospheric Sciences, at the University of Washington in Seattle. He was born in Dublin, Ireland, and obtained a B.A. in Mathematics and an M.Sc. in Statistics and Operations Research at Trinity College Dublin. He obtained a doctorate in mathematical statistics from the Université Pierre et Marie Curie under the supervision of Paul Deheuvels. He was a lecturer in statistics at Trinity College Dublin, and then an associate and full professor of statistics and sociology at the University of Washington. He was the founding Director of the Center for Statistics and Social Sciences. Professor Raftery has published over 200 articles in peer-reviewed statistical, sociological and other journals. His research focuses on Bayesian model selection and Bayesian model averaging, model-based clustering, inference for deterministic models, and the development of new statistical methods for demography, sociology, and the environmental and health sciences. He is a member of the United States National Academy of Sciences, a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, an Honorary Member of the Royal Irish Academy, a member of the Washington State Academy of Sciences, a Fellow of the American Statistical Association, a Fellow of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, and an elected Member of the Sociological Research Association. He has won multiple awards for his research. He was Coordinating and Applications Editor of the Journal of the American Statistical Association and Editor of Sociological Methodology. He was identified as the world's most cited researcher in mathematics for the period 1995-2005. Thirty-three students have obtained Ph.D.'s working under Raftery's supervision, of whom 21 hold or have held tenure-track university faculty positions.

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A p-value for Process Tracing and other N=1 Studies

We introduce a method for calculating \(p\)-values to test causal hypotheses in qualitative research \emph{a la} process tracing. As in an experiment, our \(p\)-value tells us how often one would make the same or more compelling observations favoring one theory while entertaining a rival theory. We adapt Fisher's (1935) randomization-based urn model to the reality of qualitative researchers, who cannot randomize history, but can make observations about historical processes. Our test includes a method of sensitivity analysis which allows researchers to account for the possibility of observation bias, as well as a framework for representing the varying strenght of individual pieces of evidence, altoguether informing the robustness of qualitative causal inefernce. We provide simulations and replications of previously published work to illustrate how to execute our test using any type of qualitative data about events that took place within one case. This approach adds to the pluralistic turn in the use of probability theory in theory-testing process tracing by offering a simple model with provable conservatism, while relying on few assumptions the consequences of which can be directly assessed.

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Unraveling the Skillsets of Data Scientists: Text Mining Analysis of Dutch University Master Programs in Data Science and Artificial Intelligence

The growing demand for data scientists in the global labor market and the Netherlands has led to a rise in data science and artificial intelligence (AI) master programs offered by universities. However, there is still a lack of clarity regarding the specific skillsets of data scientists. This study aims to address this issue by employing Correlated Topic Modeling (CTM) to analyse the content of 41 master programs offered by seven Dutch universities. We assess the differences and similarities in the core skills taught by these programs, determine the subject-specific and general nature of the skills, and provide a comparison between the different types of universities offering these programs. Our findings reveal that research, data processing, statistics and ethics are the predominant skills taught in Dutch data science and AI master programs, with general universities emphasizing research skills and technical universities focusing more on IT and electronic skills. This study contributes to a better understanding of the diverse skillsets of data scientists, which is essential for employers, universities, and prospective students.

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The evolving of Data Science and the Saudi Arabia case. How much have we changed in 13 years?

A comprehensive examination of data science vocabulary usage over the past 13 years in this work is conducted. The investigation commences with a dataset comprising 16,018 abstracts that feature the term "data science" in either the title, abstract, or keywords. The study involves the identification of documents that introduce novel vocabulary and subsequently explores how this vocabulary has been incorporated into scientific literature. To achieve these objectives, I employ techniques such as Exploratory Data Analysis, Latent Semantic Analysis, Latent Dirichlet Analysis, and N-grams Analysis. A comparison of scientific publications between overall results and those specific to Saudi Arabia is presented. Based on how the vocabulary is utilized, representative articles are identified.

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Reducing Uncertainty in Sea-level Rise Prediction: A Spatial-variability-aware Approach

Given multi-model ensemble climate projections, the goal is to accurately and reliably predict future sea-level rise while lowering the uncertainty. This problem is important because sea-level rise affects millions of people in coastal communities and beyond due to climate change's impacts on polar ice sheets and the ocean. This problem is challenging due to spatial variability and unknowns such as possible tipping points (e.g., collapse of Greenland or West Antarctic ice-shelf), climate feedback loops (e.g., clouds, permafrost thawing), future policy decisions, and human actions. Most existing climate modeling approaches use the same set of weights globally, during either regression or deep learning to combine different climate projections. Such approaches are inadequate when different regions require different weighting schemes for accurate and reliable sea-level rise predictions. This paper proposes a zonal regression model which addresses spatial variability and model inter-dependency. Experimental results show more reliable predictions using the weights learned via this approach on a regional scale.

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Statistical Network Analysis: Past, Present, and Future

This article provides a brief overview of statistical network analysis, a rapidly evolving field of statistics, which encompasses statistical models, algorithms, and inferential methods for analyzing data in the form of networks. Particular emphasis is given to connecting the historical developments in network science to today's statistical network analysis, and outlining important new areas for future research. This invited article is intended as a book chapter for the volume "Frontiers of Statistics and Data Science" edited by Subhashis Ghoshal and Anindya Roy for the International Indian Statistical Association Series on Statistics and Data Science, published by Springer. This review article covers the material from the short course titled "Statistical Network Analysis: Past, Present, and Future" taught by the author at the Annual Conference of the International Indian Statistical Association, June 6-10, 2023, at Golden, Colorado.

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Broken Adaptive Ridge Method for Variable Selection in Generalized Partly Linear Models with Application to the Coronary Artery Disease Data

Motivated by the CATHGEN data, we develop a new statistical learning method for simultaneous variable selection and parameter estimation under the context of generalized partly linear models for data with high-dimensional covariates. The method is referred to as the broken adaptive ridge (BAR) estimator, which is an approximation of the $L_0$-penalized regression by iteratively performing reweighted squared $L_2$-penalized regression. The generalized partly linear model extends the generalized linear model by including a non-parametric component to construct a flexible model for modeling various types of covariate effects. We employ the Bernstein polynomials as the sieve space to approximate the non-parametric functions so that our method can be implemented easily using the existing R packages. Extensive simulation studies suggest that the proposed method performs better than other commonly used penalty-based variable selection methods. We apply the method to the CATHGEN data with a binary response from a coronary artery disease study, which motivated our research, and obtained new findings in both high-dimensional genetic and low-dimensional non-genetic covariates.

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