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A Model of Consistent Node Types in Signed Directed Social Networks

Signed directed social networks, in which the relationships between users can be either positive (indicating relations such as trust) or negative (indicating relations such as distrust), are increasingly common. Thus the interplay between positive and negative relationships in such networks has become an important research topic. Most recent investigations focus upon edge sign inference using structural balance theory or social status theory. Neither of these two theories, however, can explain an observed edge sign well when the two nodes connected by this edge do not share a common neighbor (e.g., common friend). In this paper we develop a novel approach to handle this situation by applying a new model for node types. Initially, we analyze the local node structure in a fully observed signed directed network, inferring underlying node types. The sign of an edge between two nodes must be consistent with their types; this explains edge signs well even when there are no common neighbors. We show, moreover, that our approach can be extended to incorporate directed triads, when they exist, just as in models based upon structural balance or social status theory. We compute Bayesian node types within empirical studies based upon partially observed Wikipedia, Slashdot, and Epinions networks in which the largest network (Epinions) has 119K nodes and 841K edges. Our approach yields better performance than state-of-the-art approaches for these three signed directed networks.

cs.SI↗

Heterogeneous Recovery Rates against SIS Epidemics in Directed Networks

The nodes in communication networks are possibly and most likely equipped with different recovery resources, which allow them to recover from a virus with different rates. In this paper, we aim to understand know how to allocate the limited recovery resources to efficiently prevent the spreading of epidemics. We study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model on directed scale-free networks. In the classic SIS model, a susceptible node can be infected by an infected neighbor with the infection rate $β$ and an infected node can be recovered to be susceptible again with the recovery rate $δ$. In the steady state a fraction $y_\infty$ of nodes are infected, which shows how severely the network is infected. We propose to allocate the recovery rate $δ_i$ for node $i$ according to its indegree and outdegree-$δ_i\scriptsize{\sim}k_{i,in}^{α_{in}}k_{i,out}^{α_{out}}$, given the finite average recovery rate $\langleδ\rangle$ representing the limited recovery resources over the whole network. We find that, by tuning the two scaling exponents $α_{in}$ and $α_{out}$, we can always reduce the infection fraction $y_\infty$ thus reducing the extent of infections, comparing to the homogeneous recovery rates allocation. Moreover, we can find our optimal strategy via the optimal choice of the exponent $α_{in}$ and $α_{out}$. Our optimal strategy indicates that when the recovery resources are sufficient, more resources should be allocated to the nodes with a larger indegree or outdegree, but when the recovery resource is very limited, only the nodes with a larger outdegree should be equipped with more resources. We also find that our optimal strategy works better when the recovery resources are sufficient but not yet able to make the epidemic die out, and when the indegree outdegree correlation is small.

physics.soc-ph↗

Improving the Effectiveness of Content Popularity Prediction Methods using Time Series Trends

We here present a simple and effective model to predict the popularity of web content. Our solution, which is the winner of two of the three tasks of the ECML/PKDD 2014 Predictive Analytics Challenge, aims at predicting user engagement metrics, such as number of visits and social network engagement, that a web page will achieve 48 hours after its upload, using only information available in the first hour after upload. Our model is based on two steps. We first use time series clustering techniques to extract common temporal trends of content popularity. Next, we use linear regression models, exploiting as predictors both content features (e.g., numbers of visits and mentions on online social networks) and metrics that capture the distance between the popularity time series to the trends extracted in the first step. We discuss why this model is effective and show its gains over state of the art alternatives.

cs.SI↗

Who creates trends in online social media: The crowd or opinion leaders?

Trends in online social media always reflect the collective attention of a vast number of individuals across the network. For example, Internet slang words can be ubiquitous because of social memes and online contagions in an extremely short period. From Weibo, a Twitter-like service in China, we find that the adoption of popular Internet slang words experiences two peaks in its temporal evolution, in which the former is relatively much lower than the latter. This interesting phenomenon in fact provides a decent window to disclose essential factors that drive the massive diffusion underlying trends in online social media. Specifically, the in-depth comparison between diffusions represented by different peaks suggests that more attention from the crowd at early stage of the propagation produces large-scale coverage, while the dominant participation of opinion leaders at the early stage just leads to popularity of small scope. Our results quantificationally challenge the conventional hypothesis of influentials. And the implications of these novel findings for marketing practice and influence maximization in social networks are also discussed.

cs.SI↗

Searching for a Unique Style in Soccer

Is it possible to have a unique, recognizable style in soccer nowadays? We address this question by proposing a method to quantify the motif characteristics of soccer teams based on their pass networks. We introduce the the concept of "flow motifs" to characterize the statistically significant pass sequence patterns. It extends the idea of the network motifs, highly significant subgraphs that usually consists of three or four nodes. The analysis of the motifs in the pass networks allows us to compare and differentiate the styles of different teams. Although most teams tend to apply homogenous style, surprisingly, a unique strategy of soccer exists. Specifically, FC Barcelona's famous tiki-taka does not consist of uncountable random passes but rather has a precise, finely constructed structure.

cs.SI↗

Experiments on Data Preprocessing of Persian Blog Networks

Social networks analysis and exploring is important for researchers, sociologists, academics, and various businesses due to their information potential. Because of the large volume, diversity, and the data growth rate in web 2.0, some challenges have been made in these data analysis. Based on definitions, weblogs are a form of social networking. So far, the majority of studies and researches in the field of weblog networks analysis and exploring their stored data have been based on international data sets. In this paper, a framework for preprocessing and data analysis in weblog networks is presented and the results of applying it on a Persian weblog network, as a case study, are expressed.

cs.SI↗

Manipulating decision making of typical agents

We investigate how the choice of decision makers can be varied under the presence of risk and uncertainty. Our analysis is based on the approach we have previously applied to individual decision makers, which we now generalize to the case of decision makers that are members of a society. The approach employs the mathematical techniques that are common in quantum theory, justifying our naming as Quantum Decision Theory. However, we do not assume that decision makers are quantum objects. The techniques of quantum theory are needed only for defining the prospect probabilities taking into account such hidden variables as behavioral biases and other subconscious feelings. The approach describes an agent's choice as a probabilistic event occurring with a probability that is the sum of a utility factor and of an attraction factor. The attraction factor embodies subjective and unconscious dimensions in the mind of the decision maker. We show that the typical aggregate amplitude of the attraction factor is $1/4$, and it can be either positive or negative depending on the relative attraction of the competing choices. The most efficient way of varying the decision makers choice is realized by influencing the attraction factor. This can be done in two ways. One method is to arrange in a special manner the payoff weights, which induces the required changes of the values of attraction factors. We show that a slight variation of the payoff weights can invert the sign of the attraction factors and reverse the decision preferences, even when the prospect utilities remain unchanged. The second method of influencing the decision makers choice is by providing information to decision makers. The methods of influencing decision making are illustrated by several experiments, whose outcomes are compared quantitatively with the predictions of our approach.

physics.soc-ph↗

Sicily and the development of Econophysics: the pioneering work of Ettore Majorana and the Econophysics Workshop in Palermo

Sicily has played an important role in the development of the new research area named "Econophysics". In fact some key ideas supporting this new hybrid discipline were originally formulated in a pioneering work of the Sicilian born physicist Ettore Majorana. The article he wrote was entitled "The value of statistical laws in physics and social sciences". I will discuss its origin and history that has been recently discovered in the study of Stefano Roncoroni. This recent study documents the true reasons and motivations that triggered the pioneering work of Majorana. It also shows that the description of this work provided by Edoardo Amaldi was shallow and misleading. In the second part of the talk I will recollect the first years of development of econophysics and in particular the role of the "International Workshop on Econophysics and Statistical Finance" held in Palermo on 28-30 September 1998 and the setting in 1999 of the "Observatory of Complex Systems" the research group on Econophysics of Palermo University and Istituto Nazionale di Fisica della Materia.

physics.hist-ph↗

Using Modern Technologies to Capture and Share Indigenous Astronomical Knowledge

Indigenous Knowledge is important for Indigenous communities across the globe and for the advancement of our general scientific knowledge. In particular, Indigenous astronomical knowledge integrates many aspects of Indigenous Knowledge, including seasonal calendars, navigation, food economics, law, ceremony, and social structure. We aim to develop innovative ways of capturing, managing, and disseminating Indigenous astronomical knowledge for Indigenous communities and the general public for the future. Capturing, managing, and disseminating this knowledge in the digital environment poses a number of challenges, which we aim to address using a collaborative project involving experts in the higher education, library, and industry sectors. Using Microsoft's WorldWide Telescope and Rich Interactive Narratives technologies, we propose to develop software, media design, and archival management solutions to allow Indigenous communities to share their astronomical knowledge with the world on their terms and in a culturally sensitive manner.

physics.pop-ph↗

Dynamic Homeostasis in Packet Switching Networks

In this study, we investigate the adaptation and robustness of a packet switching network (PSN), the fundamental architecture of the Internet. We claim that the adaptation introduced by a transmission control protocol (TCP) congestion control mechanism is interpretable as the self-organization of multiple attractors and stability to switch from one attractor to another. To discuss this argument quantitatively, we study the adaptation of the Internet by simulating a PSN using ns-2. Our hypothesis is that the robustness and fragility of the Internet can be attributed to the inherent dynamics of the PSN feedback mechanism called the congestion window size, or \textit{cwnd}. By varying the data input into the PSN system, we investigate the possible self-organization of attractors in cwnd temporal dynamics and discuss the adaptability and robustness of PSNs. The present study provides an example of Ashby's Law of Requisite Variety in action.

cs.NI↗

A Martingale Approach to Detect Peak of News in Social Network

Nowadays, social medias such as Twitter, Memetracker and Blogs have become powerful tools to propagate information. They facilitate quick dissemination sequence of information such as news article, blog posts, user's interests and thoughts through large scale. Providing strong means to analyzing social networks structure and how information diffuse through them is essential. Many recent studies emphasize on modeling information diffusion and their patterns to gain some useful knowledge. In this paper, we propose a statistical approach to online detect peak points of news when spread over social networks, to the best of our knowledge has never investigated before. The proposed model use martingale approach to predict peak points when news reached the peak of its popularity. Experimental results on real datasets show good performance of our approach to online detect these peak points.

cs.SI↗

Computational Complexity, Phase Transitions, and Message-Passing for Community Detection

We take a whirlwind tour of problems and techniques at the boundary of computer science and statistical physics. We start with a brief description of P, NP, and NP-completeness. We then discuss random graphs, including the emergence of the giant component and the k-core, using techniques from branching processes and differential equations. Using these tools as well as the second moment method, we give upper and lower bounds on the critical clause density for random k-SAT. We end with community detection in networks, variational methods, the Bethe free energy, belief propagation, the detectability transition, and the non-backtracking matrix.

cond-mat.dis-nn↗

Exploiting Social Network Structure for Person-to-Person Sentiment Analysis

Person-to-person evaluations are prevalent in all kinds of discourse and important for establishing reputations, building social bonds, and shaping public opinion. Such evaluations can be analyzed separately using signed social networks and textual sentiment analysis, but this misses the rich interactions between language and social context. To capture such interactions, we develop a model that predicts individual A's opinion of individual B by synthesizing information from the signed social network in which A and B are embedded with sentiment analysis of the evaluative texts relating A to B. We prove that this problem is NP-hard but can be relaxed to an efficiently solvable hinge-loss Markov random field, and we show that this implementation outperforms text-only and network-only versions in two very different datasets involving community-level decision-making: the Wikipedia Requests for Adminship corpus and the Convote U.S. Congressional speech corpus.

cs.SI↗

Social determinants of content selection in the age of (mis)information

Despite the enthusiastic rhetoric about the so called \emph{collective intelligence}, conspiracy theories -- e.g. global warming induced by chemtrails or the link between vaccines and autism -- find on the Web a natural medium for their dissemination. Users preferentially consume information according to their system of beliefs and the strife within users of opposite narratives may result in heated debates. In this work we provide a genuine example of information consumption from a sample of 1.2 million of Facebook Italian users. We show by means of a thorough quantitative analysis that information supporting different worldviews -- i.e. scientific and conspiracist news -- are consumed in a comparable way by their respective users. Moreover, we measure the effect of the exposure to 4709 evidently false information (satirical version of conspiracy theses) and to 4502 debunking memes (information aiming at contrasting unsubstantiated rumors) of the most polarized users of conspiracy claims. We find that either contrasting or teasing consumers of conspiracy narratives increases their probability to interact again with unsubstantiated rumors.

cs.SI↗

Dynamics of Media Attention

Studies of human attention dynamics analyses how attention is focused on specific topics, issues or people. In online social media, there are clear signs of exogenous shocks, bursty dynamics, and an exponential or powerlaw lifetime distribution. We here analyse the attention dynamics of traditional media, focussing on co-occurrence of people in newspaper articles. The results are quite different from online social networks and attention. Different regimes seem to be operating at two different time scales. At short time scales we see evidence of bursty dynamics and fast decaying edge lifetimes and attention. This behaviour disappears for longer time scales, and in that regime we find Poissonian dynamics and slower decaying lifetimes. We propose that a cascading Poisson process may take place, with issues arising at a constant rate over a long time scale, and faster dynamics at a shorter time scale.

physics.soc-ph↗

Once Upon a Crime: Towards Crime Prediction from Demographics and Mobile Data

In this paper, we present a novel approach to predict crime in a geographic space from multiple data sources, in particular mobile phone and demographic data. The main contribution of the proposed approach lies in using aggregated and anonymized human behavioral data derived from mobile network activity to tackle the crime prediction problem. While previous research efforts have used either background historical knowledge or offenders' profiling, our findings support the hypothesis that aggregated human behavioral data captured from the mobile network infrastructure, in combination with basic demographic information, can be used to predict crime. In our experimental results with real crime data from London we obtain an accuracy of almost 70% when predicting whether a specific area in the city will be a crime hotspot or not. Moreover, we provide a discussion of the implications of our findings for data-driven crime analysis.

cs.CY↗

Quantum Google Algorithm: Construction and Application to Complex Networks

We review the main findings on the ranking capabilities of the recently proposed Quantum PageRank algorithm (G.D. Paparo et al., Sci. Rep. 2, 444 (2012) and G.D. Paparo et al., Sci. Rep. 3, 2773 (2013)) applied to large complex networks. The algorithm has been shown to identify unambiguously the underlying topology of the network and to be capable of clearly highlighting the structure of secondary hubs of networks. Furthermore, it can resolve the degeneracy in importance of the low-lying part of the list of rankings. Examples of applications include real-world instances from the WWW, which typically display a scale-free network structure and models of hierarchical networks. The quantum algorithm has been shown to display an increased stability with respect to a variation of the damping parameter, present in the Google algorithm, and a more clearly pronounced power-law behaviour in the distribution of importance among the nodes, as compared to the classical algorithm.

quant-ph↗

A Reputation-Based Model for Decision-Making in Online Social Networks

The online exchange of social recognition including, for instance, the Facebook "like" appears to produce a scarce allocation without a clear utility function defined for anyone involved. Given the importance attached to such digital commodities by both users and advertisers, it is of interest to study the forces governing their economics. Here we propose a centrality measure akin to eigenvector centrality to describe an individual's perceived importance in an online social network. It is shown in silico that strategically maximizing this prestige metric results in finite nontrivial rates of "like" endowment. Furthermore, it is found that systems of reputation-seeking agents are supported most robustly by networks with the features of real human societies including preferential attachment and the small-world property. We conclude that the incentive system studied here can produce realistic behavior and may therefore provide a framework for a more general model of decision-making in online communities.

cs.SI↗