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arXiv2014

Using social network graph analysis for interest detection

A person's interests exist as an internal state and are difficult to define. Since only external actions are observable, a proxy must be used that represents someone's interests. Techniques like collaborative filtering, behavioral targeting, and hashtag analysis implicitly model an individual's interests. I argue that these models are limited to shallow, temporary interests, which do not reflect people's deeper interests or passions. I propose an alternative model of interests that takes advantage of a user's social graph. The basic principle is that people only follow those that interest them, so the social graph is an effective and robust proxy for people's interests.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

Uncovering the dynamics of citations of scientific papers

We demonstrate a comprehensive framework that accounts for citation dynamics of scientific papers and for the age distribution of references. We show that citation dynamics of scientific papers is nonlinear and this nonlinearity has far-reaching consequences, such as diverging citation distributions and runaway papers. We propose a nonlinear stochastic dynamic model of citation dynamics based on link copying/redirection mechanism. The model is fully calibrated by empirical data and does not contain free parameters. This model can be a basis for quantitative probabilistic prediction of citation dynamics of individual papers and of the journal impact factor.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2014

Alienation in Italian cities. Social network fragmentation from collective data

We study the structure of a social network of strong ties (trust network) investigating its property of connectedness versus fragmentation. To this purpose we analyse an extensive set of census data, about marrying or having children with immigrants, collected by Italian national statistical institute for all Italian municipalities from 2001 to 2011. Not using neither obtaining personal local information but only average ones, our method fully complies with privacy and confidentiality. Our findings show that large cities display the behaviour of highly fragmented trust networks where individuals face possible phenomena of alienation. Smaller cities and villages instead behave like fully connected social systems with a rich tie structure, where isolation is rare or completely absent. While confirming classical sociological theories on alienation in large urban areas our approach provides a quantitative method to test them and a predictive tool for policy makers.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2014

Online Social Networks and Terrorism 2.0 in Developing Countries

The advancement in technology has brought a new era in terrorism where Online Social Networks have become a major platform of communication with wide range of usage from message channeling to propaganda and recruitment of new followers in terrorist groups. Meanwhile, during the terrorist attacks people use social networks for information exchange, mobilizing and uniting and raising money for the victims. This paper critically analyses the specific usage of social networks in the times of terrorism attacks in developing countries.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2014

Generalized Friendship Paradox: An Analytical Approach

The friendship paradox refers to the sociological observation that, while the people's assessment of their own popularity is typically self-aggrandizing, in reality they are less popular than their friends. The generalized friendship paradox is the average alter superiority observed empirically in social settings, scientific collaboration networks, as well as online social media. We posit a quality-based network growth model in which the chance for a node to receive new links depends both on its degree and a quality parameter. Nodes are assigned qualities the first time they join the network, and these do not change over time. We analyse the model theoretically, finding expressions for the joint degree-quality distribution and nearest-neighbor distribution. We then demonstrate that this model exhibits both the friendship paradox and the generalized friendship paradox at the network level, regardless of the distribution of qualities. We also show that, in the proposed model, the degree and quality of each node are positively correlated regardless of how node qualities are distributed.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2014

Is Twitter a Public Sphere for Online Conflicts? A Cross-Ideological and Cross-Hierarchical Look

The rise in popularity of Twitter has led to a debate on its impact on public opinions. The optimists foresee an increase in online participation and democratization due to social media's personal and interactive nature. Cyber-pessimists, on the other hand, explain how social media can lead to selective exposure and can be used as a disguise for those in power to disseminate biased information. To investigate this debate empirically, we evaluate Twitter as a public sphere using four metrics: equality, diversity, reciprocity and quality. Using these measurements, we analyze the communication patterns between individuals of different hierarchical levels and ideologies. We do this within the context of three diverse conflicts: Israel-Palestine, US Democrats-Republicans, and FC Barcelona-Real Madrid. In all cases, we collect data around a central pair of Twitter accounts representing the two main parties. Our results show in a quantitative manner that Twitter is not an ideal public sphere for democratic conversations and that hierarchical effects are part of the reason why it is not.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

Dynamics of Users Activity on Web-Blogs

Activity of users on Internet discussion forums is analyzed. The rank of users is shown to be approximated better by stretched-exponential function than by Zipfs law. Cumulative distribution function is found as an excellent tool in analysis of the dynamics of the collective social phenomena. We are able to approximate the number of blog comments with time by simple functions that resemble Fermi-Dirac distribution function: probability of posting a comment is given by $P(t)=P_0(t) / (1+P_0(t)$, where $P_0(t)=exp(a \cdot log(t/t_0))$. It is argued that dynamics of blog entries by a specific user ought to be related to personality of each user.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2014

Parallel Heuristics for Scalable Community Detection

Community detection has become a fundamental operation in numerous graph-theoretic applications. It is used to reveal natural divisions that exist within real world networks without imposing prior size or cardinality constraints on the set of communities. Despite its potential for application, there is only limited support for community detection on large-scale parallel computers, largely owing to the irregular and inherently sequential nature of the underlying heuristics. In this paper, we present parallelization heuristics for fast community detection using the Louvain method as the serial template. The Louvain method is an iterative heuristic for modularity optimization. Originally developed by Blondel et al. in 2008, the method has become increasingly popular owing to its ability to detect high modularity community partitions in a fast and memory-efficient manner. However, the method is also inherently sequential, thereby limiting its scalability. Here, we observe certain key properties of this method that present challenges for its parallelization, and consequently propose heuristics that are designed to break the sequential barrier. For evaluation purposes, we implemented our heuristics using OpenMP multithreading, and tested them over real world graphs derived from multiple application domains (e.g., internet, citation, biological). Compared to the serial Louvain implementation, our parallel implementation is able to produce community outputs with a higher modularity for most of the inputs tested, in comparable number or fewer iterations, while providing absolute speedups of up to 16x using 32 threads.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

Role of Subgraphs in Epidemics over Finite-Size Networks under the Scaled SIS Process

In previous work, we developed the scaled SIS process, which models the dynamics of SIS epidemics over networks. With the scaled SIS process, we can consider networks that are finite-sized and of arbitrary topology (i.e., we are not restricted to specific classes of networks). We derived for the scaled SIS process a closed-form expression for the time-asymptotic probability distribution of the states of all the agents in the network. This closed-form solution of the equilibrium distribution explicitly exhibits the underlying network topology through its adjacency matrix. This paper determines which network configuration is the most probable. We prove that, for a range of epidemics parameters, this combinatorial problem leads to a submodular optimization problem, which is exactly solvable in polynomial time. We relate the most-probable configuration to the network structure, in particular, to the existence of high density subgraphs. Depending on the epidemics parameters, subset of agents may be more likely to be infected than others; these more-vulnerable agents form subgraphs that are denser than the overall network. We illustrate our results with a 193 node social network and the 4941 node Western US power grid under different epidemics parameters.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

Propagation of Systemic Risk in Interbank Networks

This work explores the characteristics of financial contagion in networks whose links distributions approaches a power law, using a model that defines banks balance sheets from information of network connectivity. By varying the parameters for the creation of the network, several interbank networks are built, in which the concentrations of debts and credits are obtained from links distributions during the creation networks process. Three main types of interbank network are analyzed for their resilience to contagion: i) concentration of debts is greater than concentration of credits, ii) concentration of credits is greater than concentration of debts and iii) concentrations of debts and credits are similar. We also tested the effect of a variation in connectivity in conjunction with variation in concentration of links. The results suggest that more connected networks with high concentration of credits (featuring nodes that are large creditors of the system) present greater resilience to contagion when compared with the others networks analyzed. Evaluating some topological indices of systemic risk suggested by the literature we have verified the ability of these indices to explain the impact on the system caused by the failure of a node. There is a clear positive correlation between the topological indices and the magnitude of losses in the case of networks with high concentration of debts. This correlation is smaller for more resilient networks.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2014

Content and Network Dynamics Behind Egyptian Political Polarization on Twitter

There is little doubt about whether social networks play a role in modern protests. This agreement has triggered an entire research avenue, in which social structure and content analysis have been central --but are typically exploited separately. Here, we combine these two approaches to shed light on the opinion evolution dynamics in Egypt during the summer of 2013 along two axes (Islamist/Secularist, pro/anti-military intervention). We intend to find traces of opinion changes in Egypt's population, paralleling those in the international community --which oscillated from sympathetic to condemnatory as civil clashes grew. We find little evidence of people "switching" sides, along with clear changes in volume in both pro- and anti-military camps. Our work contributes new insights into the dynamics of large protest movements, specially in the aftermath of the main events --rather unattended previously. It questions the standard narrative concerning a simplistic mapping between Secularist/pro-military and Islamist/anti-military. Finally, our conclusions provide empirical validation to sociological models regarding the behavior of individuals in conflictive contexts.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

Understanding News Geography and Major Determinants of Global News Coverage of Disasters

In this work, we reveal the structure of global news coverage of disasters and its determinants by using a large-scale news coverage dataset collected by the GDELT (Global Data on Events, Location, and Tone) project that monitors news media in over 100 languages from the whole world. Significant variables in our hierarchical (mixed-effect) regression model, such as the number of population, the political stability, the damage, and more, are well aligned with a series of previous research. Yet, strong regionalism we found in news geography highlights the necessity of the comprehensive dataset for the study of global news coverage.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2014

Regulation of burstiness by network-driven activation

We prove that complex networks of interactions have the capacity to regulate and buffer unpredictable fluctuations in production events. We show that non-bursty network-driven activation dynamics can effectively regulate the level of burstiness in the production of nodes, which can be enhanced or reduced. Burstiness can be induced even when the endogenous inter-event time distribution of nodes' production is non-bursty. We found that hubs tend to be less controllable than low degree nodes, which are more susceptible to the networked regulatory effects. Our results have important implications for the analysis and engineering of bursty activity in a range of systems, from telecommunication networks to transcription and translation of genes into proteins in cells.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2014

Learning and coordinating in a multilayer network

We introduce a two layer network model for social coordination incorporating two relevant ingredients: a) different networks of interaction to learn and to obtain a payoff , and b) decision making processes based both on social and strategic motivations. Two populations of agents are distributed in two layers with intralayer learning processes and playing interlayer a coordination game. We find that the skepticism about the wisdom of crowd and the local connectivity are the driving forces to accomplish full coordination of the two populations, while polarized coordinated layers are only possible for all-to-all interactions. Local interactions also allow for full coordination in the socially efficient Pareto-dominant strategy in spite of being the riskier one.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2014

Oscillating epidemics in a dynamic network model: stochastic and mean-field analysis

An adaptive network model using SIS epidemic propagation with link-type dependent link activation and deletion is considered. Bifurcation analysis of the pairwise ODE approximation and the network-based stochastic simulation is carried out, showing that three typical behaviours may occur; namely, oscillations can be observed besides disease-free or endemic steady states. The oscillatory behaviour in the stochastic simulations is studied using Fourier analysis, as well as through analysing the exact master equations of the stochastic model. A compact pairwise approximation for the dynamic network case is also developed and, for the case of link-type independent rewiring, the outcome of epidemics and changes in network structure are concurrently presented in a single bifurcation diagram. By going beyond simply comparing simulation results to mean-field models, our approach yields deeper insights into the observed phenomena and help better understand and map out the limitations of mean-field models.

math.PR↗

arXiv2014

Stability and Continuity of Centrality Measures in Weighted Graphs

This paper presents a formal definition of stability for node centrality measures in weighted graphs. It is shown that the commonly used measures of degree, closeness and eigenvector centrality are stable whereas betweenness centrality is not. An alternative definition of the latter that preserves the same centrality notion while satisfying the stability criteria is introduced. Continuity is presented as a less stringent alternative to stability. Betweenness centrality is shown to be not only unstable but discontinuous. Numerical experiments in synthetic random networks and real-world data show that, in practice, stability and continuity imply different levels of robustness in the presence of noisy data. In particular, the stable betweenness centrality is shown to exhibit resilience against noise that is absent in the discontinuous and unstable standard betweenness centrality, while preserving a similar notion of centrality.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

Punctuated equilibrium dynamics in human communications

A minimal model based on individual interactions is proposed to study the non-Poisson statistical properties of human behavior: individuals in the system interact with their neighbors, the probability of an individual acting correlates to its activity, and all individuals involved in action will change their activities randomly. The model creates rich non-Poisson spatial-temporal properties in the activities of individuals, in agreement with the patterns of human communication behaviors. Our findings provide insight into various human activities, embracing a range of realistic social interacting systems, particularly, intriguing bimodal phenomenons. This model bridges priority queues and punctuated equilibrium, and our modeling and analysis is likely to shed light on non-Poisson phenomena in many complex systems.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2014

Description of the Early Growth Dynamics of 2014 West Africa Ebola Epidemic

${\bf Background:}$ The early growth dynamics of the West African Ebola virus epidemic has been qualitatively different for Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. However, it is important to understand these disparate dynamics as trends of a single epidemic spread over regions with similar geographic and cultural aspects, with likely common parameters for transmission rates and the reproduction number $R_0$. ${\bf Methods:}$ We combine a discrete, stochastic SEIR model with a two-scale community network model to demonstrate that the different regional trends may be explained by different community mixing rates. Heuristically, the effect of different community mixing rates may be understood as the observation that two individuals infected by the same chain of transmission are more likely to know one another in a less-mixed community. Saturation effects occur as the contacts of an infected individual are more likely to already be exposed by the same chain of transmission. ${\bf Results:}$ The effects of community mixing, together with the effects of stochasticity, can explain the qualitative difference in the growth of Ebola virus cases in each country, and why the probability of large outbreaks may have recently increased. An increase in the rate of Ebola cases in Guinea in late August, and a local fitting of the transient dynamics of the Ebola cases in Liberia, suggests that the epidemic in Liberia has been more severe, and the epidemic in Guinea is worsening, due to discrete seeding events as the epidemic spreads into new communities. ${\bf Conclusions:}$ A relatively simple network model provides insight on the role of local effects such as saturation that would be difficult to otherwise quantify. Our results predict that exponential growth of an epidemic is driven by the exposure of new communities, underscoring the importance of control measures that limit this spread.

q-bio.PE↗