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Analyzing propagation of low-frequency dissipative oscillations in the upper atmosphere

At a horizontally homogeneous isothermal atmosphere approximation, we derive an ordinary six-order differential equation describing linear disturbances with consideration for heat conductivity and viscosity of medium. The wave problem may be solved analytically by representing the solution through generalized hypergeometric functions only at a nonviscous heat-conducting isothermal atmosphere approximation. The analytical solution may be used to qualitatively analyze propagation of acoustic and internal gravity waves (AGWs) in the real atmosphere: a) to classify waves of different frequencies and horizontal scales according to a degree of attenuation and thus according to their ability to appear in observations and in general dynamics of the upper atmosphere; b) to describe variations in amplitude and phase characteristics of disturbances propagating in a height region with dominant dissipation; c) to analyze applicability of quasi-classical wave description to a medium with exponentially growing dissipation. In this paper, we also present wave and quasi-classical methods for deriving waveguide solutions (dissipative ones corresponding to a range of internal gravity waves (IGWs)) with consideration of wave leakage into the upper atmosphere. We propose a qualitative scheme which formally connects the wave leakage solution to the wave solution in the upper dissipative atmosphere. Spatial and frequency characteristics of dissipative disturbances generated by a waveguide leakage effect in the upper atmosphere are demonstrated to agree well with observed characteristics of middle-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs).

physics.ao-ph↗

The Impact of Orography and Latent Heating on the Location of the Tropical Easterly Jet

The Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) is a prominent atmospheric circulation feature observed during the Asian Summer Monsoon. It is generally assumed that Tibet is an essential ingredient in determining the location of the TEJ. However studies have also suggested the importance of latent heating in determining the jet location. The relative importance of Tibetan orography and latent heating is explored through simulations with a general circulation model. The simulation of TEJ by the Community Atmosphere Model, version 3.1 (CAM-3.1) has been discussed in detail. Although the simulated TEJ replicated many observed features of the jet, the jet maximum was located too far to the west when compared to observation. The precipitation in the control simulation was high to the west of India and this caused the TEJ to shift westwards by approximately the same amount. Orography was found to have minimal impact on the simulated TEJ hence indicating that latent heating is the crucial parameter. The primacy of latent heating in determining the jet location was confirmed by additional simulations where the simulated precipitation was brought closer to observations. This made the TEJ to also shift to the correct position.

physics.ao-ph↗

Remote sensing of seawater and drifting ice in Svalbard fjords by compact Raman LIDAR

A compact Raman LIDAR system for remote sensing of sea and drifting ice was developed at the Wave Research Center at the Prokhorov General Physics Institute of the RAS. The developed system is based on a diode pumped solid state YVO4:Nd laser combined with compact spectrograph equipped with gated detector. The system exhibits high sensitivity and can be used for mapping or depth profiling of different parameters within many oceanographic problems. Light weight (~20 kg) and low power consumption (300 W) make possible to install the device on any vehicle including unmanned aircraft or submarine system. The Raman LIDAR presented was used for Svalbard fjords study and analysis of different influence of the open sea and glaciers on the water properties. Temperature, phytoplankton, and dissolved organic matter distributions in the seawater were studied in the Ice Fjord, Van Mijen Fjord and Rinders Fjord. Drifting ice and seawater in the Rinders Fjord were characterized by the Raman spectroscopy and fluorescence. It was found that the Paula Glacier strongly influences the water temperature and chlorophyll distributions in the Van Mijen Fjord and Rinders Fjord. Possible applications of compact LIDAR systems for express monitoring of seawater in the places with high concentration of floating ice or near cold streams in the Arctic Ocean are discussed

physics.optics↗

The dynamics of internal gravity waves in the ocean: theory and applications

In this paper we consider fundamental processes of the disturbance and propagation of internal gravity waves in the ocean modeled as a vertically stratified, horizontally non-uniform, and non-stationary medium. We develop asymptotic methods for describing the wave dynamics by generalizing the spatiotemporal ray-tracing method (a geometrical optics method). We present analytical and numerical algorithms for calculating the internal gravity wave fields using actual ocean parameters such as physical characteristics of the sea water, topography of its floor, etc. We demonstrate that our mathematical models can realistically describe the internal gravity wave dynamics in the ocean. Our numerical and analytical results show that the internal gravity waves have a significant impact on underwater objects in the ocean.

physics.flu-dyn↗

On the internal gravity waves in the stratified ocean with shear flows

In this paper, we consider a fundamental problem of describing the dynamics of internal gravity waves in the stratified ocean with shear flows. We develop an asymptotic representation of the wave fields in terms of the Green's functions. We explore the far field of the internal gravity waves generated by disturbing sources, and propose asymptotic algorithms for calculating its dynamics.

physics.flu-dyn↗

Ray-based analysis of the interference striation pattern in an underwater acoustic waveguide

In some underwater acoustic waveguides with specially selected sound speed profiles striations or fringes of the interference pattern are determined by a single parameter β called the waveguide (or Chuprov) invariant. In the present paper it is shown that an analytical description of fringes may be possible in a waveguide with an arbitrary sound speed profile. A simple analytical expression is obtained for smooth lines formed by local maxima of the interference pattern. This result is valid at long enough ranges. It is derived proceeding from a known relation connecting the differences of ray travel times and the action variables of ray paths.

physics.ao-ph↗

Fluctuations and seasonality in the Arctic sea ice area: A sudden regime shift in 2007?

Since the beginning of satellite observations, the Arctic sea ice extent has shown a downward trend. The decline has been weaker in the March maximum than in the September minimum and masked by inter-annual fluctuations. One of the less understood aspects of the sea ice response is the persistence times for fluctuations, which could indicate the dominant physical processes behind the sea ice decline. To determine the fluctuation persistence times, however, it is necessary to first filter out the dominant effect of the seasonal cycle. In the current study, we thus develop a statistical model, which accurately decomposes the ice area changes into: (1) a variable seasonal cycle component with a constant shape and (2) a residual (short term) fluctuation. We find the persistence time of fluctuations to be only about three weeks, independently from season, which is substantially shorter than previously reported. Such short time scale points to the dominance of atmospheric forcing. The shape of the seasonal cycle is surprisingly constant for the whole observational record despite the rapid decline. This is in agreement with the suggestion that the asymmetry of the seasonal cycle is an effect of Arctic land-sea geography, which has not changed with climate change. The analysis suggest a jump in the annual sea ice area amplitude occurring in 2007, from which it has not yet recovered, possibly revealing a permanent amplitude shift. In physical sense, this could imply a shift towards the younger, thinner and more susceptible ice cover commencing after the immense 2007 multi-year ice loss.

physics.ao-ph↗

Parametric Excitation of Internal Gravity Waves in Ocean and Atmosphere as Precursors of Strong Earthquakes and Tsunami

The condition of internal gravity waves (IGW) parametric excitation in the rotating fluid layer heated from above, with the layer vibration along the vertical axis or with periodic modulation in time of the vertical temperature distribution, is obtained. We show the dual role of the molecular dissipative effects that may lead not only to the wave oscillations damping, but also to emergence of hydrodynamic dissipative instability (DI) in some frequency band of IGW. This DI also may take place for the localized in horizontal plane tornado-like disturbances, horizontal scale of which does not exceed the character vertical scale for the fluid layer of the finite depth. Investigated parametric resonance mechanism of IGW generation in ocean and atmosphere during and before earthquakes allows monitoring of such waves (with double period with respect to the period of vibration or temperature gradient modulation) as precursors of these devastating phenomena.

physics.flu-dyn↗

Examining the physical principles behind the motion of moist air: Which expressions are sound?

The physical equations determining the motion of moist atmospheric air in the presence of condensation remain controversial. Two distinct formulations have been proposed, published and cited. The equation of Bannon [2002, J. Atmos. Sci. 59: 1967--1982] includes a term for a "reactive motion" that arises when water vapor condenses and droplets begin to fall; according to this term the remaining gas moves upwards so as to conserve momentum. In the equation of Ooyama[2001, J. Atmos. Sci. 58: 2073--2102] the reactive motion term is absent. Both equations contain a term for condensate loading, but in the formulation of Ooyama [2001] there are two additional terms. In some modern nonhydrostatic models of moist atmospheric circulation, however, formulations have been mixed. Here we examine the contrasting equations for the motion of moist air. We discuss inconsistencies in the application of Newton's second and third laws to an air and condensate mixture. We show that the concept of reactive motion in this context is based on a misunderstanding of the conservation of momentum in the presence of a gravitational field: such a reactive motion does not exist. We show that the "mixed" equation used in some models is not physically consistent either. We examine why consideration of total momentum, that is air and condensate combined, has been misleading in the search for valid equations of motion in the presence of phase transitions.

physics.flu-dyn↗

Axisymmetrically Tropical Cyclone-like Vortices with Secondary Circulations

The secondary circulation of the tropical cyclone (TC) is related to its formation and intensification, thus becomes very important in the studies. The analytical solutions have both the primary and secondary circulation in a three-dimensionally nonhydrostatic and adiabatic model. We prove that there are three intrinsic radiuses for the axisymmetrically ideal incompressible flow. The first one is the radius of maximum primary circular velocity $r_m$. The second one is radius of the primary kernel $r_k>r_m$, across which the vorticity of the primary circulation changes sign and the vertical velocity changes direction. The last one is the radius of the maximum primary vorticity $r_d$, at which the vertical flow of the secondary circulation approaches its maximum, and across which the radius velocity changes sign. The first TC-like vortex solution has universal inflow or outflow. The relations between the intrinsic length scales are $r_k=\sqrt{2}r_m$ and $r_d=2r_m$. The second one is a multi-planar solution, periodically in $z$-coordinate. Within each layer, the solution is a convection vortex. The number of the secondary circulation might be one, two, three, and even more. There are also three intrinsic radiuses $r_m$, $r_k$ and $r_d$, but they have different values. It seems that the relative stronger radius velocity could be easily found near boundaries. The above solutions can be applied to study the radial structure of the tornados, TCs and mesoscale eddies.

physics.ao-ph↗

Sensitivity, uncertainty analyses and algorithm selection for Sea Ice Thickness retrieval from Radar Altimeter

For accurate forecast of climate change, sea ice mass balance, ocean circulation and sea- atmosphere interactions is required to have long term records of Sea Ice Thickness (SIT). Different approaches have been applied to retrieve SIT and only satellite altimetry, radar or laser, have been proven to provide hemispheric estimates of SIT distribution over a sufficient thickness range. To simplify the algorithm for SIT retrieval from RA, constant ice density has been applied until now, which lead to different results for derived SIT and SID, in dependence on input information for sea ice density and snow depth. The purpose of this paper is to select algorithm for SID and SIT retrieval from RA, using statistical, sensitivity analyses and independent observations of SID from moored ULS, or on Submarine. The impact of ice density and snow depth on accuracy of the retrieved SIT has been examined, applying sensitivity analyses, and the propagated uncertainties have been summarised. Accuracy of algorithms for snow depth retrieval in the Arctic have been discussed and it is concluded that the assumption of half snow depth over First Year Ice (FYI) will lead always to underestimation of SIT and SID derived from RA and is not applicable for SIT retrieval from RA, using the equation for hydrostatic equilibrium. Algorithms for freeboard depended ice densities and SIT retrieval from RA have been developed and a FD algorithm for SIT retrieval from RA has been selected, based on statistical, sensitivity analyses and comparison with collocated observations of SID from moored ULS and on Submarine . ESA (ERS1, 2, ENVISAT, CryoSat2), future ESA (Sentinel) and NASA satellite and airborne missions, climate and numerical forecast programs will benefit the results of this paper.

physics.data-an↗

Functional derivatives applied to error propagation of uncertainties in topography to large-aperture scintillometer-derived heat fluxes

Scintillometer measurements allow for estimations of the refractive index structure parameter $C_n^2$ over large areas in the atmospheric surface layer. Turbulent fluxes of heat and momentum are inferred through coupled sets of equations derived from the Monin--Obukhov similarity hypothesis. One-dimensional sensitivity functions have been produced that relate the sensitivity of heat fluxes to uncertainties in single values of beam height over flat terrain. However, real field sites include variable topography. We develop here, using functional derivatives, the first analysis of the sensitivity of scintillometer-derived sensible heat fluxes to uncertainties in spatially distributed topographic measurements. Sensitivity is shown to be concentrated in areas near the center of the beam path and where the underlying topography is closest to the beam height. Relative uncertainty contributions to the sensible heat flux from uncertainties in topography can reach 20\,\% of the heat flux in some cases. Uncertainty may be greatly reduced by focusing accurate topographic measurements in these specific areas. A~new two-dimensional variable terrain sensitivity function is developed for quantitative error analysis. This function is compared with the previous one-dimensional sensitivity function for the same measurement strategy over flat terrain. Additionally, a~new method of solution to the set of coupled equations is produced that eliminates computational error.

physics.ao-ph↗

Assessing the consistency between short-term global temperature trends in observations and climate model projections

Assessing the consistency between short-term global temperature trends in observations and climate model projections is a challenging problem. While climate models capture many processes governing short-term climate fluctuations, they are not expected to simulate the specific timing of these somewhat random phenomena - the occurrence of which may impact the realized trend. Therefore, to assess model performance, we develop distributions of projected temperature trends from a collection of climate models running the IPCC A1B emissions scenario. We evaluate where observed trends of length 5 to 15 years fall within the distribution of model trends of the same length. We find that current trends lie near the lower limits of the model distributions, with cumulative probability-of-occurrence values typically between 5 percent and 20 percent, and probabilities below 5 percent not uncommon. Our results indicate cause for concern regarding the consistency between climate model projections and observed climate behavior under conditions of increasing anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions.

physics.ao-ph↗

Mesosphere Light Scattering Depolarization During the Perseids Activity Epoch by WAPC Measurements

The paper describes the study of field of scattered radiation in the mesosphere basing on wide-angle polarization camera (WAPC) measurements of the twilight sky background. Mid-August observations in 2012 and 2013 show the decrease of single scattering polarization value that can be related with Perseids meteor dust moderation in the upper mesosphere. Effect correlates with activity of tiny fraction of Perseids shower. Polarization and temperature analysis allows estimating the altitude of dust layer and character polarization of dust scattering.

astro-ph.EP↗

Potential multiple steady-states in the long-term carbon cycle

In our modeling of the long-term carbon cycle we find potential multiple steady-states in Phanerozoic climates. We include the effects of biotic enhancement of weathering on land, organic carbon burial, oxidation of reduced organic carbon in terrestrial sediments and the variation of biotic productivity with temperature, finding a second stable steady-state appearing between 20 and 50 oC. The very warm early Triassic climate as well as an oceanic anoxic event in the late Cretaceous may be the potential candidates for an upper temperature steady-state. Given our results, the anthropogenic driven rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide could potentially push the climate into tipping points to a modestly higher temperature steady-state, instead of relaxing back to pre-anthropogenic conditions.

astro-ph.EP↗

Wind and Wave Extremes over the World Oceans From Very Large Forecast Ensembles

Global return value estimates of significant wave height and 10-m neutral wind speed are estimated from very large aggregations of archived ECMWF ensemble forecasts at +240-h lead time from the period 2003-2012. The upper percentiles are found to match ENVISAT wind speed better than ERA-Interim (ERA-I), which tends to be biased low. The return estimates are significantly higher for both wind speed and wave height in the extratropics and the subtropics than what is found from ERA-I, but lower than what is reported by Caires and Sterl (2005) and Vinoth and Young (2011). The highest discrepancies between ERA-I and ENS240 are found in the hurricane-prone areas, suggesting that the ensemble comes closer than ERA-I in capturing the intensity of tropical cyclones. The width of the confidence intervals are typically reduced by 70% due to the size of the data sets. Finally, non-parametric estimates of return values were computed from the tail of the distribution. These direct return estimates compare very well with Generalized Pareto estimates.

physics.ao-ph↗

Global Well-posedness of a System of Nonlinearly Coupled KdV equations of Majda and Biello

This paper addresses the problem of global well-posedness of a coupled system of Korteweg-de Vries equations, derived by Majda and Biello in the context of nonlinear resonant interaction of Rossby waves, in a periodic setting in homogeneous Sobolev spaces $\dot H^s$, for $s\geq 0$. Our approach is based on a successive time-averaging method developed by Babin, Ilyin and Titi [1].

math.AP↗