Heuristic model of teaching
A simple physical model differentiates effective from ineffective teaching and identifies elements that make teaching productive, with specific implications concerning training of teachers.
physics.ed-ph↗
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Driver Choice Compared to Controlled Diversion for a Freeway Double On-Ramp
Two diversion schemes that apportion demand between two on-ramps to reduce congestion and improve throughput on a freeway are analyzed. In the first scheme, drivers choose to merge or to divert to a downstream on-ramp based on information about average travel times for the two routes: (1) merge and travel on the freeway or (2) divert and travel on a surface street with merging downstream. The flow, rate of merging at the ramps, and the travel times oscillate strongly, but irregularly, due to delayed feedback. In the second scheme, diversion is controlled by the average mainline velocities just upstream of the on-ramps. Driver choice is not involved. If the average upstream velocity on the mainline drops below a predetermined value (20 m/s) vehicles are diverted to the downstream ramp. When the average mainline velocity downstream becomes too low, diversion is no longer permitted. The resultant oscillations in this scheme are nearly periodic. The period is dominated by the response time of the mainline to interruption of merging rather than delayed feedback, which contributes only a minor component linear in the distance separating the on-ramps. In general the second scheme produces more effective congestion reduction and greater throughput. Also the travel times for on-ramp drivers are less than that obtained by drivers who attempt to minimize their own travel times (first scheme).
physics.soc-ph↗
Agents for Traffic Simulation
Vehicular traffic is a classical example of a multi-agent system in which autonomous drivers operate in a shared environment. The article provides an overview of the state-of-the-art in microscopic traffic modeling and the implications for simulation techniques. We focus on the short-time dynamics of car-following models which describe continuous feedback control tasks (acceleration and braking) and models for discrete-choice tasks as a response to the surrounding traffic. The driving style of an agent is characterized by model parameters such as reaction time, desired speed, desired time gap, anticipation etc. In addition, internal state variables corresponding to the agent's "mind" are used to incorporate the driving experiences. We introduce a time-dependency of some parameters to describe the frustration of drivers being in a traffic jam for a while. Furthermore, the driver's behavior is externally influenced by the neighboring vehicles and also by environmental input such as limited motorization and braking power, visibility conditions and road traffic regulations. A general approach for dealing with discrete decision problems in the context of vehicular traffic is introduced and applied to mandatory and discretionary lane changes. Furthermore, we consider the decision process whether to brake or not when approaching a traffic light turning from green to amber. Another aspect of vehicular traffic is related to the heterogeneity of drivers. We discuss a hybrid system of coupled vehicle and information flow which can be used for developing and testing applications of upcoming inter-vehicle communication techniques.
physics.soc-ph↗
Effect of Slow Switching in On-line Learning for Ensemble Teachers
We have analyzed the generalization performance of a student which slowly switches ensemble teachers. By calculating the generalization error analytically using statistical mechanics in the framework of on-line learning, we show that the dynamical behaviors of generalization error have the periodicity that is synchronized with the switching period and the behaviors differ with the number of ensemble teachers. Furthermore, we show that the smaller the switching period is, the larger the difference is.
physics.soc-ph↗
A comparative study of social network models: network evolution models and nodal attribute models
This paper reviews, classifies and compares recent models for social networks that have mainly been published within the physics-oriented complex networks literature. The models fall into two categories: those in which the addition of new links is dependent on the (typically local) network structure (network evolution models, NEMs), and those in which links are generated based only on nodal attributes (nodal attribute models, NAMs). An exponential random graph model (ERGM) with structural dependencies is included for comparison. We fit models from each of these categories to two empirical acquaintance networks with respect to basic network properties. We compare higher order structures in the resulting networks with those in the data, with the aim of determining which models produce the most realistic network structure with respect to degree distributions, assortativity, clustering spectra, geodesic path distributions, and community structure (subgroups with dense internal connections). We find that the nodal attribute models successfully produce assortative networks and very clear community structure. However, they generate unrealistic clustering spectra and peaked degree distributions that do not match empirical data on large social networks. On the other hand, many of the network evolution models produce degree distributions and clustering spectra that agree more closely with data. They also generate assortative networks and community structure, although often not to the same extent as in the data. The ERG model turns out to produce the weakest community structure.
physics.soc-ph↗
Correlated Anarchy in Overlapping Wireless Networks
We investigate the behavior of a large number of selfish users that are able to switch dynamically between multiple wireless access-points (possibly belonging to different standards) by introducing an iterated non-cooperative game. Users start out completely uneducated and naive but, by using a fixed set of strategies to process a broadcasted training signal, they quickly evolve and converge to an evolutionarily stable equilibrium. Then, in order to measure efficiency in this steady state, we adapt the notion of the price of anarchy to our setting and we obtain an explicit analytic estimate for it by using methods from statistical physics (namely the theory of replicas). Surprisingly, we find that the price of anarchy does not depend on the specifics of the wireless nodes (e.g. spectral efficiency) but only on the number of strategies per user and a particular combination of the number of nodes, the number of users and the size of the training signal. Finally, we map this game to the well-studied minority game, generalizing its analysis to an arbitrary number of choices.
cs.GT↗
Mining a medieval social network by kernel SOM and related methods
This paper briefly presents several ways to understand the organization of a large social network (several hundreds of persons). We compare approaches coming from data mining for clustering the vertices of a graph (spectral clustering, self-organizing algorithms. . .) and provide methods for representing the graph from these analysis. All these methods are illustrated on a medieval social network and the way they can help to understand its organization is underlined.
stat.AP↗
Pedestrian Flow at Bottlenecks - Validation and Calibration of Vissim's Social Force Model of Pedestrian Traffic and its Empirical Foundations
In this contribution first results of experiments on pedestrian flow through bottlenecks are presented and then compared to simulation results obtained with the Social Force Model in the Vissim simulation framework. Concerning the experiments it is argued that the basic dependence between flow and bottleneck width is not a step function but that it is linear and modified by the effect of a psychological phenomenon. The simulation results as well show a linear dependence and the parameters can be calibrated such that the absolute values for flow and time fit to range of experimental results.
cs.MA↗
A modification of the h-index: the hm-index accounts for multi-authored manuscripts
In order to take multiple co-authorship appropriately into account, a straightforward modification of the Hirsch index was recently proposed. Fractionalised counting of the papers yields an appropriate measure which is called the hm-index. The effect of this procedure is compared in the present work with other variants of the h-index and found to be superior to the fractionalised counting of citations and to the normalization of the h-index with the average number of authors in the h-core. Three fictitious examples for model cases and one empirical case are analysed.
physics.soc-ph↗
Productivity Dispersion: Facts, Theory, and Implications
We study productivity dispersions across workers, firms and industrial sectors. Empirical study of the Japanese data shows that they all obey the Pareto law, and also that the Pareto index decreases with the level of aggregation. In order to explain these two stylized facts, we propose a theoretical framework built upon the basic principle of statistical physics. In this framework, we employ the concept of superstatistics which accommodates fluctuations of aggregate demand.
q-fin.GN↗
Organizational and dynamical aspects of a small network with two distinct communities : Neo creationists vs. Evolution Defenders
Social impacts and degrees of organization inherent to opinion formation for interacting agents on networks present interesting questions of general interest from physics to sociology. We present a quantitative analysis of a case implying an evolving small size network, i.e. that inherent to the ongoing debate between modern creationists (most are Intelligent Design (ID) proponents (IDP)) and Darwin's theory of Evolution Defenders (DED)). This study is carried out by analyzing the structural properties of the citation network unfolded in the recent decades by publishing works belonging to members of the two communities. With the aim of capturing the dynamical aspects of the interaction between the IDP and DED groups, we focus on $two$ key quantities, namely, the {\it degree of activity} of each group and the corresponding {\it degree of impact} on the intellectual community at large. A representative measure of the former is provided by the {\it rate of production of publications} (RPP), whilst the latter can be assimilated to the{\it rate of increase in citations} (RIC). These quantities are determined, respectively, by the slope of the time series obtained for the number of publications accumulated per year and by the slope of a similar time series obtained for the corresponding citations. The results indicate that in this case, the dynamics can be seen as geared by triggered or damped competition. The network is a specific example of marked heterogeneity in exchange of information activity in and between the communities, particularly demonstrated through the nodes having a high connectivity degree, i.e. opinion leaders.
physics.soc-ph↗
Convergence and cluster structures in EU area according to fluctuations in macroeconomic indices
The cluster analysis methods are used in order to perform a comparative study of 15 EU countries in relation with the fluctuations of some basic macroeconomic indicators. The statistical distances between countries are calculated for various moving time windows, and the time variation of the mean statistical distance is investigated. The decreasing of the mean statistical distance between EU countries is reflected in the correlated fluctuations of the basic ME indicators: GDP, GDP/capita, Consumption and Investments. This empirical evidence can be seen as an economic aspect of globalization. The Moving Average Minimal Length Path (MAMLP) algorithm allows to search for a cluster-like structures derived both from the hierarchical organization of countries and from their relative movement inside the hierarchy. It is found that the strongly correlated countries with respect to GDP fluctuations can be partitioned into stable clusters. Some of the highly correlated countries, with respect to GDP fluctuations, display strong correlations also in the Final Consumption Expenditure, while others are strongly correlated in Gross Capital Formation. On the other hand, one notices the similitude of the classifications regarding GDP and Net Exports fluctuations as concerns the squared sum of the correlation coefficients (so called country sensitivity). The final structure proves to be robust against the constant size time window moving over the scanned time interval. The policy implications of the above empirical results concern the economic clusters arising in the presence of Marshallian externalities and the relationships between trade barriers, R&D incentives and growth that must be accounted in elaborating a cluster-promotion policy.
q-fin.GN↗
Deterministic definition of the capital risk
In this paper we propose a look at the capital risk problem inspired by deterministic, known from classical mechanics, problem of juggling. We propose capital equivalents to the Newton's laws of motion and on this basis we determine the most secure form of credit repayment with regard to maximisation of profit. Then we extend the Newton's laws to models in linear spaces of arbitrary dimension with the help of matrix rates of return. The matrix rates describe the evolution of multidimensional capital and they are sensitive to both quantitative changes of individual elements and flows between them. This allows us for simultaneous analysis of evolution of complex capital in both continuous and discrete time models.
q-fin.RM↗
A hypothesis of earth quake
Without a model, it is impossible for a geophysicist to study the possibility of forecasting earth quakes. We will define a quantity, the event-degree, in the paper. This quantity plays an important role in the model of quakes forecasting. In order to make a simple model, we make a hypothesis of earth quakes. The hypothesis is: "(i) There are two kinds of earth quakes, one is the triggered breaking (earth quake), the other is spontaneous breaking (earth quake). (ii) Most major quakes in continental plates such as Eurasian Plate, North America Plate, South America Plate, Africa Plate and Australia Plate are triggered breaking. (iii) These triggered quakes are triggered by the evolution of high pressure centers and low pressure centers of the atmosphere on the plates. (iv) How can the evolution of the high pressure centers trigger a quake in quantitative sense? It depends on the event-degree, the extent of the high pressure center, the rate of evolution of event-degree and the the degree of stored energy for reaching breaking point."
physics.geo-ph↗
Modeling the Structure and Dynamics of the Consonant Inventories: A Complex Network Approach
We study the self-organization of the consonant inventories through a complex network approach. We observe that the distribution of occurrence as well as cooccurrence of the consonants across languages follow a power-law behavior. The co-occurrence network of consonants exhibits a high clustering coefficient. We propose four novel synthesis models for these networks (each of which is a refinement of the earlier) so as to successively match with higher accuracy (a) the above mentioned topological properties as well as (b) the linguistic property of feature economy exhibited by the consonant inventories. We conclude by arguing that a possible interpretation of this mechanism of network growth is the process of child language acquisition. Such models essentially increase our understanding of the structure of languages that is influenced by their evolutionary dynamics and this, in turn, can be extremely useful for building future NLP applications.
physics.soc-ph↗
Detecting speculative bubbles created in experiments via decoupling in agent based models
Proving the existence of speculative financial bubbles even a posteriori has proven exceedingly difficult so anticipating a speculative bubble ex ante would at first seem an impossible task. Still as illustrated by the recent turmoil in financial markets initiated by the so called subprime crisis there is clearly an urgent need for new tools in our understanding and handling of financial speculative bubbles. In contrast to periods of fast growth, the nature of market dynamics profoundly changes during speculative bubbles where self contained strategies often leads to unconditional buying. A critical question is therefore whether such a signature can be quantified, and if so, used in the understanding of what are the sufficient and necessary conditions in the creation of a speculative bubble. Here we show a new technique, based on agent based simulations, gives a robust measure of detachment of trading choices created by feedback, and predicts the onset of speculative bubbles in experiments with human subjects. We use trading data obtained from experiments with humans as input to computer simulations of artificial agents that use adaptive strategies defined from game theory....
q-fin.TR↗
Measuring Value in Healthcare
A statistical description and model of individual healthcare expenditures in the US has been developed for measuring value in healthcare. We find evidence that healthcare expenditures are quantifiable as an infusion-diffusion process, which can be thought of intuitively as a steady change in the intensity of treatment superimposed on a random process reflecting variations in the efficiency and effectiveness of treatment. The arithmetic mean represents the net average annual cost of healthcare; and when multiplied by the arithmetic standard deviation, which represents the effective risk, the result is a measure of healthcare cost control. Policymakers, providers, payors, or patients that decrease these parameters are generating value in healthcare. The model has an average absolute prediction error of approximately 10-12% across the range of expenditures which spans 6 orders of magnitude over a nearly 10-year period. For the top 1% of the population with the largest expenditures, representing 20%-30% of total spending on healthcare, a power-law relationship emerges. This relationship also applies to the most expensive medical conditions in the US. A fundamental connection between healthcare expenditures and mathematical finance is found by showing that the process healthcare expenditures follow is similar to a widely used model for managing financial assets, leading to the conclusion that a combination of these two fields may yield useful results.
physics.soc-ph↗
Anomalous Returns in a Neural Network Equity-Ranking Predictor
Using an artificial neural network (ANN), a fixed universe of approximately 1500 equities from the Value Line index are rank-ordered by their predicted price changes over the next quarter. Inputs to the network consist only of the ten prior quarterly percentage changes in price and in earnings for each equity (by quarter, not accumulated), converted to a relative rank scaled around zero. Thirty simulated portfolios are constructed respectively of the 10, 20,..., and 100 top ranking equities (long portfolios), the 10, 20,..., 100 bottom ranking equities (short portfolios) and their hedged sets (long-short portfolios). In a 29-quarter simulation from the end of the third quarter of 1994 through the fourth quarter of 2001 that duplicates real-world trading of the same method employed during 2002, all portfolios are held fixed for one quarter. Results are compared to the S&P 500, the Value Line universe itself, trading the universe of equities using the proprietary ``Value Line Ranking System'' (to which this method is in some ways similar), and to a Martingale method of ranking the same equities. The cumulative returns generated by the network predictor significantly exceed those generated by the S&P 500, the overall universe, the Martingale and Value Line prediction methods and are not eroded by trading costs. The ANN shows significantly positive Jensen's alpha, i.e., anomalous risk-adjusted expected return. A time series of its global performance shows a clear antipersistence. However, its performance is significantly better than a simple one-step Martingale predictor, than the Value Line system itself and than a simple buy and hold strategy, even when transaction costs are accounted for.
q-fin.GN↗