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arXiv2014

Memory in network flows and its effects on spreading dynamics and community detection

Random walks on networks is the standard tool for modelling spreading processes in social and biological systems. This first-order Markov approach is used in conventional community detection, ranking, and spreading analysis although it ignores a potentially important feature of the dynamics: where flow moves to may depend on where it comes from. Here we analyse pathways from different systems, and while we only observe marginal consequences for disease spreading, we show that ignoring the effects of second-order Markov dynamics has important consequences for community detection, ranking, and information spreading. For example, capturing dynamics with a second-order Markov model allows us to reveal actual travel patterns in air traffic and to uncover multidisciplinary journals in scientific communication. These findings were achieved only by using more available data and making no additional assumptions, and therefore suggest that accounting for higher-order memory in network flows can help us better understand how real systems are organized and function.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2014

Predicting commuter flows in spatial networks using a radiation model based on temporal ranges

Understanding network flows such as commuter traffic in large transportation networks is an ongoing challenge due to the complex nature of the transportation infrastructure and of human mobility. Here we show a first-principles based method for traffic prediction using a cost based generalization of the radiation model for human mobility, coupled with a cost-minimizing algorithm for efficient distribution of the mobility fluxes through the network. Using US census and highway traffic data we show that traffic can efficiently and accurately be computed from a range-limited, network betweenness type calculation. The model based on travel time costs captures the lognormal distribution of the traffic and attains a high Pearson correlation coefficient (0.75) when compared to real traffic. Due to its principled nature, this method can inform many applications related to human mobility driven flows in spatial networks, ranging from transportation, through urban planning to mitigation of the effects of catastrophic events.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2013

Abrupt transition in the structural formation of interconnected networks

Our current world is linked by a complex mesh of networks where information, people and goods flow. These networks are interdependent each other, and present structural and dynamical features different from those observed in isolated networks. While examples of such "dissimilar" properties are becoming more abundant, for example diffusion, robustness and competition, it is not yet clear where these differences are rooted in. Here we show that the composition of independent networks into an interconnected network of networks undergoes a structurally sharp transition as the interconnections are formed. Depending of the relative importance of inter and intra-layer connections, we find that the entire interdependent system can be tuned between two regimes: in one regime, the various layers are structurally decoupled and they act as independent entities; in the other regime, network layers are indistinguishable and the whole system behave as a single-level network. We analytically show that the transition between the two regimes is discontinuous even for finite size networks. Thus, any real-world interconnected system is potentially at risk of abrupt changes in its structure that may reflect in new dynamical properties.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2018

Conjoining uncooperative societies facilitates evolution of cooperation

Social structure affects the emergence and maintenance of cooperation. Here we study the evolutionary dynamics of cooperation in fragmented societies, and show that conjoining segregated cooperation-inhibiting groups, if done properly, rescues the fate of collective cooperation. We highlight the essential role of inter-group ties, that sew the patches of the social network together and facilitate cooperation. We point out several examples of this phenomenon in actual settings. We explore random and non-random graphs, as well as empirical networks. In many cases we find a marked reduction of the critical benefit-to-cost ratio needed for sustaining cooperation. Our finding gives hope that the increasing worldwide connectivity, if managed properly, can promote global cooperation.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2017

Multiscale unfolding of real networks by geometric renormalization

Multiple scales coexist in complex networks. However, the small world property makes them strongly entangled. This turns the elucidation of length scales and symmetries a defiant challenge. Here, we define a geometric renormalization group for complex networks and use the technique to investigate networks as viewed at different scales. We find that real networks embedded in a hidden metric space show geometric scaling, in agreement with the renormalizability of the underlying geometric model. This allows us to unfold real scale-free networks in a self-similar multilayer shell which unveils the coexisting scales and their interplay. The multiscale unfolding offers a basis for a new approach to explore critical phenomena and universality in complex networks, and affords us immediate practical applications, like high-fidelity smaller-scale replicas of large networks and a multiscale navigation protocol in hyperbolic space which boosts the success of single-layer versions.

cond-mat.dis-nn↗

arXiv2017

Cascading Failures in Interdependent Networks with Multiple Supply-Demand Links and Functionality Thresholds

Various social, financial, biological and technological systems can be modeled by interdependent networks. It has been assumed that in order to remain functional, nodes in one network must receive the support from nodes belonging to different networks. So far these models have been limited to the case in which the failure propagates across networks only if the nodes lose all their supply nodes. In this paper we develop a more realistic model for two interdependent networks in which each node has its own supply threshold, i.e., they need the support of a minimum number of supply nodes to remain functional. In addition, we analyze different conditions of internal node failure due to disconnection from nodes within its own network. We show that several local internal failure conditions lead to similar nontrivial results. When there are no internal failures the model is equivalent to a bipartite system, which can be useful to model a financial market. We explore the rich behaviors of these models that include discontinuous and continuous phase transitions. Using the generating functions formalism, we analytically solve all the models in the limit of infinitely large networks and find an excellent agreement with the stochastic simulations.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2017

Structure constrained by metadata in networks of chess players

Chess is an emblematic sport that stands out because of its age, popularity and complexity. It has served to study human behavior from the perspective of a wide number of disciplines, from cognitive skills such as memory and learning, to aspects like innovation and decision making. Given that an extensive documentation of chess games played throughout history is available, it is possible to perform detailed and statistically significant studies about this sport. Here we use one of the most extensive chess databases in the world to construct two networks of chess players. One of the networks includes games that were played over-the-board and the other contains games played on the Internet. We study the main topological characteristics of the networks, such as degree distribution and correlations, transitivity and community structure. We complement the structural analysis by incorporating players' level of play as node metadata. Although both networks are topologically different, we show that in both cases players gather in communities according to their expertise and that an emergent rich-club structure, composed by the top-rated players, is also present.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2018

Competing contagion processes: Complex contagion triggered by simple contagion

Empirical evidence reveals that contagion processes often occur with competition of simple and complex contagion, meaning that while some agents follow simple contagion, others follow complex contagion. Simple contagion refers to spreading processes induced by a single exposure to a contagious entity while complex contagion demands multiple exposures for transmission. Inspired by this observation, we propose a model of contagion dynamics with a transmission probability that initiates a process of complex contagion. With this probability nodes subject to simple contagion get adopted and trigger a process of complex contagion. We obtain a phase diagram in the parameter space of the transmission probability and the fraction of nodes subject to complex contagion. Our contagion model exhibits a rich variety of phase transitions such as continuous, discontinuous, and hybrid phase transitions, criticality, tricriticality, and double transitions. In particular, we find a double phase transition showing a continuous transition and a following discontinuous transition in the density of adopted nodes with respect to the transmission probability. We show that the double transition occurs with an intermediate phase in which nodes following simple contagion become adopted but nodes with complex contagion remain susceptible.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2022

Meta-validation of bipartite network projections

Monopartite projections of bipartite networks are useful tools for modeling indirect interactions in complex systems. The standard approach to identify significant links is statistical validation using a suitable null network model, such as the popular configuration model (CM) that constrains node degrees and randomizes everything else. However different CM formulations exist, depending on how the constraints are imposed and for which sets of nodes. Here we systematically investigate the application of these formulations in validating the same network, showing that they lead to different results even when the same significance threshold is used. Instead a much better agreement is obtained for the same density of validated links. We thus propose a meta-validation approach that allows to identify model-specific significance thresholds for which the signal is strongest, and at the same time to obtain results independent of the way in which the null hypothesis is formulated. We illustrate this procedure using data on scientific production of world countries.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2013

Exploring the limits of community detection strategies in complex networks

The characterization of network community structure has profound implications in several scientific areas. Therefore, testing the algorithms developed to establish the optimal division of a network into communities is a fundamental problem in the field. We performed here a highly detailed evaluation of community detection algorithms, which has two main novelties: 1) using complex closed benchmarks, which provide precise ways to assess whether the solutions generated by the algorithms are optimal; and, 2) A novel type of analysis, based on hierarchically clustering the solutions suggested by multiple community detection algorithms, which allows to easily visualize how different are those solutions. Surprise, a global parameter that evaluates the quality of a partition, confirms the power of these analyses. We show that none of the community detection algorithms tested provide consistently optimal results in all networks and that Surprise maximization, obtained by combining multiple algorithms, obtains quasi-optimal performances in these difficult benchmarks.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2013

Spreading of cooperative behaviour across interdependent groups

Recent empirical research has shown that links between groups reinforce individuals within groups to adopt cooperative behaviour. Moreover, links between networks may induce cascading failures, competitive percolation, or contribute to efficient transportation. Here we show that there in fact exists an intermediate fraction of links between groups that is optimal for the evolution of cooperation in the prisoner's dilemma game. We consider individual groups with regular, random, and scale-free topology, and study their different combinations to reveal that an intermediate interdependence optimally facilitates the spreading of cooperative behaviour between groups. Excessive between-group links simply unify the two groups and make them act as one, while too rare between-group links preclude a useful information flow between the two groups. Interestingly, we find that between-group links are more likely to connect two cooperators than in-group links, thus supporting the conclusion that they are of paramount importance.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2013

Deciphering the global organization of clustering in real complex networks

We uncover the global organization of clustering in real complex networks. As it happens with other fundamental properties of networks such as the degree distribution, we find that real networks are neither completely random nor ordered with respect to clustering, although they tend to be closer to maximally random architectures. We reach this conclusion by comparing the global structure of clustering in real networks with that in maximally random and in maximally ordered clustered graphs. The former are produced with an exponential random graph model that maintains correlations among adjacent edges at the minimum needed to conform with the expected clustering spectrum; the later with a random model that arranges triangles in cliques inducing highly ordered structures. To compare the global organization of clustering in real and model networks, we compute $m$-core landscapes, where the $m$-core is defined, akin to the $k$-core, as the maximal subgraph with edges participating at least in $m$ triangles. This property defines a set of nested subgraphs that, contrarily to $k$-cores, is able to distinguish between hierarchical and modular architectures. To visualize the $m$-core decomposition we developed the LaNet-vi 3.0 tool.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2013

Reciprocity of weighted networks

All types of networks arise as intricate combinations of dyadic building blocks formed by pairs of vertices. In directed networks, the dyadic patterns are entirely determined by reciprocity, i.e. the tendency to form, or to avoid, mutual links. Reciprocity has dramatic effects on every networks dynamical processes and the emergence of structures like motifs and communities. The binary reciprocity has been extensively studied: that of weighted networks is still poorly understood. We introduce a general approach to it, by defining quantities capturing the observed patterns (from dyad-specific to vertex-specific and network-wide) and introducing analytically solved models (Exponential Random Graphs-type). Counter-intuitively, the previous reciprocity measures based on the similarity of the mutual links-weights are uninformative. By contrast, our measures can classify different weighted networks, track the temporal evolution of a networks reciprocity, identify patterns. We show that in some networks the local reciprocity structure can be inferred from the global one.

physics.data-an↗

arXiv2012

Unstable Price Dynamics as a Result of Information Absorption in Speculative Markets

In speculative markets, risk-free profit opportunities are eliminated by traders exploiting them. Markets are therefore often described as "informationally efficient", rapidly removing predictable price changes, and leaving only residual unpredictable fluctuations. This classical view of markets absorbing information and otherwise operating close to an equilibrium is challenged by extreme price fluctuations, in particular since they occur far more frequently than can be accounted for by external news. Here we show that speculative markets which absorb mainly self-generated information can exhibit both: evolution towards efficient equilibrium states as well as their subsequent destabilization. This peculiar dynamics, a generic instability arising from an adaptive control which annihilates predictable information, is realized in a minimal agent-based market model where the impacts of agents' strategies adapt according to their trading success. This adaptation implements a learning rule for the market as a whole minimizing predictable price changes. The model reproduces stylized statistical properties of price changes in quantitative detail, including heavy tailed log return distributions and volatility clusters. Our results demonstrate that the perpetual occurrence of market instabilities can be a direct consequence of the very mechanisms that lead to market efficiency.

q-fin.TR↗

arXiv2013

Significant Scales in Community Structure

Many complex networks show signs of modular structure, uncovered by community detection. Although many methods succeed in revealing various partitions, it remains difficult to detect at what scale some partition is significant. This problem shows foremost in multi-resolution methods. We here introduce an efficient method for scanning for resolutions in one such method. Additionally, we introduce the notion of "significance" of a partition, based on subgraph probabilities. Significance is independent of the exact method used, so could also be applied in other methods, and can be interpreted as the gain in encoding a graph by making use of a partition. Using significance, we can determine "good" resolution parameters, which we demonstrate on benchmark networks. Moreover, optimizing significance itself also shows excellent performance. We demonstrate our method on voting data from the European Parliament. Our analysis suggests the European Parliament has become increasingly ideologically divided and that nationality plays no role.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2013

The Anatomy of a Scientific Rumor

The announcement of the discovery of a Higgs boson-like particle at CERN will be remembered as one of the milestones of the scientific endeavor of the 21st century. In this paper we present a study of information spreading processes on Twitter before, during and after the announcement of the discovery of a new particle with the features of the elusive Higgs boson on 4th July 2012. We report evidence for non-trivial spatio-temporal patterns in user activities at individual and global level, such as tweeting, re-tweeting and replying to existing tweets. We provide a possible explanation for the observed time-varying dynamics of user activities during the spreading of this scientific "rumor". We model the information spreading in the corresponding network of individuals who posted a tweet related to the Higgs boson discovery. Finally, we show that we are able to reproduce the global behavior of about 500,000 individuals with remarkable accuracy.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2013

Quantifying the effect of temporal resolution on time-varying networks

Time-varying networks describe a wide array of systems whose constituents and interactions evolve over time. They are defined by an ordered stream of interactions between nodes, yet they are often represented in terms of a sequence of static networks, each aggregating all edges and nodes present in a time interval of size Δt. In this work we quantify the impact of an arbitrary Δt on the description of a dynamical process taking place upon a time-varying network. We focus on the elementary random walk, and put forth a simple mathematical framework that well describes the behavior observed on real datasets. The analytical description of the bias introduced by time integrating techniques represents a step forward in the correct characterization of dynamical processes on time-varying graphs.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2013

On the Predictability of Future Impact in Science

Correctly assessing a scientist's past research impact and potential for future impact is key in recruitment decisions and other evaluation processes. While a candidate's future impact is the main concern for these decisions, most measures only quantify the impact of previous work. Recently, it has been argued that linear regression models are capable of predicting a scientist's future impact. By applying that future impact model to 762 careers drawn from three disciplines: physics, biology, and mathematics, we identify a number of subtle, but critical, flaws in current models. Specifically, cumulative non-decreasing measures like the h-index contain intrinsic autocorrelation, resulting in significant overestimation of their "predictive power". Moreover, the predictive power of these models depend heavily upon scientists' career age, producing least accurate estimates for young researchers. Our results place in doubt the suitability of such models, and indicate further investigation is required before they can be used in recruiting decisions.

physics.soc-ph↗