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arXiv2010

Error Estimates for Multinomial Approximations of American Options in Merton's Model

We derive error estimates for multinomial approximations of American options in a multidimensional jump--diffusion Merton's model. We assume that the payoffs are Markovian and satisfy Lipschitz type conditions. Error estimates for such type of approximations were not obtained before. Our main tool is the strong approximations theorems for i.i.d. random vectors which were obtained [14]. For the multidimensional Black--Scholes model our results can be extended also to a general path dependent payoffs which satisfy Lipschitz type conditions. For the case of multinomial approximations of American options for the Black--Scholes model our estimates are a significant improvement of those which were obtained in [8] (for game options in a more general setup)

q-fin.CP↗
arXiv2010

Limit Theorems for Partial Hedging Under Transaction Costs

We study shortfall risk minimization for American options with path dependent payoffs under proportional transaction costs in the Black--Scholes (BS) model. We show that for this case the shortfall risk is a limit of similar terms in an appropriate sequence of binomial models. We also prove that in the continuous time BS model for a given initial capital there exists a portfolio strategy which minimizes the shortfall risk. In the absence of transactions costs (complete markets) similar limit theorems were obtained in Dolinsky and Kifer (2008, 2010) for game options. In the presence of transaction costs the markets are no longer complete and additional machinery required. Shortfall risk minimization for American options under transaction costs was not studied before.

q-fin.CP↗
arXiv2010

Fast Correlation Greeks by Adjoint Algorithmic Differentiation

We show how Adjoint Algorithmic Differentiation (AAD) allows an extremely efficient calculation of correlation Risk of option prices computed with Monte Carlo simulations. A key point in the construction is the use of binning to simultaneously achieve computational efficiency and accurate confidence intervals. We illustrate the method for a copula-based Monte Carlo computation of claims written on a basket of underlying assets, and we test it numerically for Portfolio Default Options. For any number of underlying assets or names in a portfolio, the sensitivities of the option price with respect to all the pairwise correlations is obtained at a computational cost which is at most 4 times the cost of calculating the option value itself. For typical applications, this results in computational savings of several order of magnitudes with respect to standard methods.

q-fin.CP↗
arXiv2010

Asymptotic analysis for stochastic volatility: Edgeworth expansion

The validity of an approximation formula for European option prices under a general stochastic volatility model is proved in the light of the Edgeworth expansion for ergodic diffusions. The asymptotic expansion is around the Black-Scholes price and is uniform in bounded payoff func- tions. The result provides a validation of an existing singular perturbation expansion formula for the fast mean reverting stochastic volatility model.

q-fin.CP↗
arXiv2010

Discretization error of Stochastic Integrals

Asymptotic error distribution for approximation of a stochastic integral with respect to continuous semimartingale by Riemann sum with general stochastic partition is studied. Effective discretization schemes of which asymptotic conditional mean-squared error attains a lower bound are constructed. Two applications are given; efficient delta hedging strategies with transaction costs and effective discretization schemes for the Euler-Maruyama approximation are constructed.

math.PR↗
arXiv2010

A maximum principle for forward-backward stochastic Volterra integral equations and applications in finance

This paper formulates and studies a stochastic maximum principle for forward-backward stochastic Volterra integral equations (FBSVIEs in short), while the control area is assumed to be convex. Then a linear quadratic (LQ in short) problem for backward stochastic Volterra integral equations (BSVIEs in short) is present to illustrate the aforementioned optimal control problem. Motivated by the technical skills in solving above problem, a more convenient and briefer method for the unique solvability of M-solution for BSVIEs is proposed. At last, we will investigate a risk minimization problem by means of the maximum principle for FBSVIEs. Closed-form optimal portfolio is obtained in some special cases.

math.PR↗
arXiv2010

Results on numerics for FBSDE with drivers of quadratic growth

We consider the problem of numerical approximation for forward-backward stochastic differential equations with drivers of quadratic growth (qgFBSDE). To illustrate the significance of qgFBSDE, we discuss a problem of cross hedging of an insurance related financial derivative using correlated assets. For the convergence of numerical approximation schemes for such systems of stochastic equations, path regularity of the solution processes is instrumental. We present a method based on the truncation of the driver, and explicitly exhibit error estimates as functions of the truncation height. We discuss a reduction method to FBSDE with globally Lipschitz continuous drivers, by using the Cole-Hopf exponential transformation. We finally illustrate our numerical approximation methods by giving simulations for prices and optimal hedges of simple insurance derivatives.

q-fin.CP↗
arXiv2010

Fractional processes as models in stochastic finance

We survey some new progress on the pricing models driven by fractional Brownian motion \cb{or} mixed fractional Brownian motion. In particular, we give results on arbitrage opportunities, hedging, and option pricing in these models. We summarize some recent results on fractional Black & Scholes pricing model with transaction costs. We end the paper by giving some approximation results and indicating some open problems related to the paper.

q-fin.PR↗
arXiv2011

Dividend problem with Parisian delay for a spectrally negative Lévy risk process

In this paper we consider dividend problem for an insurance company whose risk evolves as a spectrally negative Lévy process (in the absence of dividend payments) when Parisian delay is applied. The objective function is given by the cumulative discounted dividends received until the moment of ruin when so-called barrier strategy is applied. Additionally we will consider two possibilities of delay. In the first scenario ruin happens when the surplus process stays below zero longer than fixed amount of time $ζ>0$. In the second case there is a time lag $d$ between decision of paying dividends and its implementation.

q-fin.PM↗
arXiv2010

Model Selection and Adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo for Bayesian Cointegrated VAR model

This paper develops a matrix-variate adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology for Bayesian Cointegrated Vector Auto Regressions (CVAR). We replace the popular approach to sampling Bayesian CVAR models, involving griddy Gibbs, with an automated efficient alternative, based on the Adaptive Metropolis algorithm of Roberts and Rosenthal, (2009). Developing the adaptive MCMC framework for Bayesian CVAR models allows for efficient estimation of posterior parameters in significantly higher dimensional CVAR series than previously possible with existing griddy Gibbs samplers. For a n-dimensional CVAR series, the matrix-variate posterior is in dimension $3n^2 + n$, with significant correlation present between the blocks of matrix random variables. We also treat the rank of the CVAR model as a random variable and perform joint inference on the rank and model parameters. This is achieved with a Bayesian posterior distribution defined over both the rank and the CVAR model parameters, and inference is made via Bayes Factor analysis of rank. Practically the adaptive sampler also aids in the development of automated Bayesian cointegration models for algorithmic trading systems considering instruments made up of several assets, such as currency baskets. Previously the literature on financial applications of CVAR trading models typically only considers pairs trading (n=2) due to the computational cost of the griddy Gibbs. We are able to extend under our adaptive framework to $n >> 2$ and demonstrate an example with n = 10, resulting in a posterior distribution with parameters up to dimension 310. By also considering the rank as a random quantity we can ensure our resulting trading models are able to adjust to potentially time varying market conditions in a coherent statistical framework.

q-fin.CP↗
arXiv2011

Improved Frechet bounds and model-free pricing of multi-asset options

Improved bounds on the copula of a bivariate random vector are computed when partial information is available, such as the values of the copula on a given subset of $[0,1]^2$, or the value of a functional of the copula, monotone with respect to the concordance order. These results are then used to compute model-free bounds on the prices of two-asset options which make use of extra information about the dependence structure, such as the price of another two-asset option.

q-fin.PR↗
arXiv2010

Schizophrenic Representative Investors

Representative investors whose behaviour is modelled by a deterministic finite automaton generate complexity both in the time series of each asset and in the cross-sectional correlation when the rule governing their behaviour is schizophrenic, meaning the investor must hold multiple seemingly contradictory beliefs simultaneously, either by switching between two different rules at each time step, or computing different responses to different assets.

q-fin.TR↗
arXiv2010

Convenient Multiple Directions of Stratification

This paper investigates the use of multiple directions of stratification as a variance reduction technique for Monte Carlo simulations of path-dependent options driven by Gaussian vectors. The precision of the method depends on the choice of the directions of stratification and the allocation rule within each strata. Several choices have been proposed but, even if they provide variance reduction, their implementation is computationally intensive and not applicable to realistic payoffs, in particular not to Asian options with barrier. Moreover, all these previously published methods employ orthogonal directions for multiple stratification. In this work we investigate the use of algorithms producing convenient directions, generally non-orthogonal, combining a lower computational cost with a comparable variance reduction. In addition, we study the accuracy of optimal allocation in terms of variance reduction compared to the Latin Hypercube Sampling. We consider the directions obtained by the Linear Transformation and the Principal Component Analysis. We introduce a new procedure based on the Linear Approximation of the explained variance of the payoff using the law of total variance. In addition, we exhibit a novel algorithm that permits to correctly generate normal vectors stratified along non-orthogonal directions. Finally, we illustrate the efficiency of these algorithms in the computation of the price of different path-dependent options with and without barriers in the Black-Scholes and in the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross markets.

q-fin.CP↗
arXiv2013

Stochastic Utilities With a Given Optimal Portfolio : Approach by Stochastic Flows

The paper generalizes the construction by stochastic flows of consistent utility processes introduced by M. Mrad and N. El Karoui in (2010). The utilities random fields are defined from a general class of processes denoted by $\GX$. Making minimal assumptions and convex constraints on test-processes, we construct by composing two stochastic flows of homeomorphisms, all the consistent stochastic utilities whose the optimal-benchmark process is given, strictly increasing in its initial condition. Proofs are essentially based on stochastic change of variables techniques.

q-fin.CP↗
arXiv2010

A Direct Proof of the Bichteler--Dellacherie Theorem and Connections to Arbitrage

We give an elementary proof of the celebrated Bichteler-Dellacherie Theorem which states that the class of stochastic processes $S$ allowing for a useful integration theory consists precisely of those processes which can be written in the form $S=M+A$, where $M$ is a local martingale and $A$ is a finite variation process. In other words, $S$ is a good integrator if and only if it is a semi-martingale. We obtain this decomposition rather directly from an elementary discrete-time Doob-Meyer decomposition. By passing to convex combinations we obtain a direct construction of the continuous time decomposition, which then yields the desired decomposition. As a by-product of our proof we obtain a characterization of semi-martingales in terms of a variant of \emph{no free lunch}, thus extending a result from [DeSc94].

math.PR↗
arXiv2010

On the fractional Black-Scholes market with transaction costs

We consider fractional Black-Scholes market with proportional transaction costs. When transaction costs are present, one trades periodically i.e. we have the discrete trading with equidistance $n^{-1}$ between trading times. We derive a non trivial hedging error for a class of European options with convex payoff in the case when the transaction costs coefficients decrease as $n^{-(1-H)}$. We study the expected hedging error and asymptotic behavior of the hedge as $H \to 1/2$

q-fin.PR↗
arXiv2010

Variational inequality method in stock loans

In this paper we first introduce two new financial products: stock loan and capped stock loan. Then we develop a pure variational inequality method to establish explicitly the values of these stock loans. Finally, we work out ranges of fair values of parameters associated with the loans.

q-fin.PR↗