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arXiv2014

The structure of optimal portfolio strategies for continuous time markets

The paper studies problem of continuous time optimal portfolio selection for a incom- plete market diffusion model. It is shown that, under some mild conditions, near optimal strategies for investors with different performance criteria can be constructed using a limited number of fixed processes (mutual funds), for a market with a larger number of available risky stocks. In other words, a dimension reduction is achieved via a relaxed version of the Mutual Fund Theorem.

q-fin.PM↗
arXiv2011

Adjusted Closing Prices

Historical returns depend on historical closing prices and distributions. We describe how to compute adjusted closing prices from closing price/distribution data with an emphasis on spreadsheet implementation. Then the growth of a security from one date to another (1 + total return) is just the ratio of the corresponding adjusted closing prices.

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arXiv2012

CRRA Utility Maximization under Risk Constraints

This paper studies the problem of optimal investment with CRRA (constant, relative risk aversion) preferences, subject to dynamic risk constraints on trading strategies. The market model considered is continuous in time and incomplete. the prices of financial assets are modeled by Itô processes. The dynamic risk constraints, which are time and state dependent, are generated by risk measures. Optimal trading strategies are characterized by a quadratic BSDE. Within the class of \textit{time consistent distortion risk measures}, a three-fund separation result is established. Numerical results emphasize the effects of imposing risk constraints on trading.

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arXiv2011

Additive habit formation: Consumption in incomplete markets with random endowments

We provide a detailed characterization of the optimal consumption stream for the additive habit-forming utility maximization problem, in a framework of general discrete-time incomplete markets and random endowments. This characterization allows us to derive the monotonicity and concavity of the optimal consumption as a function of wealth, for several important classes of incomplete markets and preferences. These results yield a deeper understanding of the fine structure of the optimal consumption and provide a further theoretical support for the classical conjectures of Keynes (1936).

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arXiv2019

Exponential utility with non-negative consumption

We offer mathematical tractability and new insights for a framework of exponential utility with non-negative consumption, a constraint often omitted in the literature giving rise to economically unviable solutions. Specifically, using the Kuhn-Tucker theorem and the notion of aggregate state price density (Malamud and Trubowitz (2007)), we provide a solution to this problem in the setting of both complete and incomplete markets (with random endowments). Then, we exploit this result to provide an explicit characterization of complete market heterogeneous equilibria. Furthermore, we construct concrete examples of models admitting multiple (including infinitely many) equilibria. By using Cramer's large deviation theorem, we study the asymptotics of equilibrium zero coupon bonds. Lastly, we conduct a study of the precautionary savings motive in incomplete markets.

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arXiv2012

Market selection with learning and catching up with the Joneses

We study the market selection hypothesis in complete financial markets, populated by heterogeneous agents. We allow for a rich structure of heterogeneity: individuals may differ in their beliefs concerning the economy, information and learning mechanism, risk aversion, impatience and 'catching up with Joneses' preferences. We develop new techniques for studying the long-run behavior of such economies, based on the Strassen's functional law of iterated logarithm. In particular, we explicitly determine an agent's survival index and show how the latter depends on the agent's characteristics. We use these results to study the long-run behavior of the equilibrium interest rate and the market price of risk.

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arXiv2011

The Stability of the Constrained Utility Maximization Problem - A BSDE Approach

This article studies the sensitivity of the power utility maximization problem with respect to the investor's relative risk aversion, the statistical probability measure, the investment constraints and the market price of risk. We extend previous descriptions of the dual domain then exploit the link between the constrained utility maximization problem and continuous semimartingale quadratic BSDEs to reduce questions on sensitivity to results on stability for such equations. This then allows us to prove appropriate convergence of the primal and dual optimizers in the semimartingale topology.

math.OC↗
arXiv2011

On Investment-Consumption with Regime-Switching

In a continuous time stochastic economy, this paper considers the problem of consumption and investment in a financial market in which the representative investor exhibits a change in the discount rate. The investment opportunities are a stock and a riskless account. The market coefficients and discount factor switches according to a finite state Markov chain. The change in the discount rate leads to time inconsistencies of the investor's decisions. The randomness in our model is driven by a Brownian motion and Markov chain. Following Ekeland etc (2008) we introduce and characterize the equilibrium policies for power utility functions. Moreover, they are computed in closed form for logarithmic utility function. We show that a higher discount rate leads to a higher equilibrium consumption rate. Numerical experiments show the effect of both time preference and risk aversion on the equilibrium policies.

math.OC↗
arXiv2011

KISS approach to credit portfolio modeling

A simple, yet reasonably accurate, analytical technique is proposed for multi-factor structural credit portfolio models. The accuracy of the technique is demonstrated by benchmarking against Monte Carlo simulations. The approach presented here may be of high interest to practitioners looking for transparent, intuitive, easy to implement and high performance credit portfolio model.

q-fin.RM↗
arXiv2012

Stability of exponential utility maximization with respect to market perturbations

We investigate the continuity of expected exponential utility maximization with respect to perturbation of the Sharpe ratio of markets. By focusing only on continuity, we impose weaker regularity conditions than those found in the literature. Specifically, we require, in addition to the $V$-compactness hypothesis of Larsen and Žitković (2007) (ArXiv: 0706.0474), a local $bmo$ hypothesis, a condition which is seen to always be trivially satisfied in the setting of Larsen and Žitković (2007). For markets of the form $S = M + \int λd $, these conditions are simultaneously implied by the existence of a uniform bound on the norm of $λ\cdot M$ in a suitable $bmo$ space.

q-fin.PM↗
arXiv2012

Investment/consumption problem in illiquid markets with regime-switching

We consider an illiquid financial market with different regimes modeled by a continuous-time finite-state Markov chain. The investor can trade a stock only at the discrete arrival times of a Cox process with intensity depending on the market regime. Moreover, the risky asset price is subject to liquidity shocks, which change its rate of return and volatility, and induce jumps on its dynamics. In this setting, we study the problem of an economic agent optimizing her expected utility from consumption under a non-bankruptcy constraint. By using the dynamic programming method, we provide the characterization of the value function of this stochastic control problem in terms of the unique viscosity solution to a system of integro-partial differential equations. We next focus on the popular case of CRRA utility functions, for which we can prove smoothness $C^2$ results for the value function. As an important byproduct, this allows us to get the existence of optimal investment/consumption strategies characterized in feedback forms. We analyze a convergent numerical scheme for the resolution to our stochastic control problem, and we illustrate finally with some numerical experiments the effects of liquidity regimes in the investor's optimal decision.

q-fin.PM↗
arXiv2011

Constructing the Best Trading Strategy: A New General Framework

We introduce a new general framework for constructing the best trading strategy for a given historical indicator. We construct the unique trading strategy with the highest expected return. This optimal strategy may be implemented directly, or its expected return may be used as a benchmark to evaluate how far away from the optimal other proposed strategies for the given indicators are. Separately, we also construct the unique trading strategy with the highest information ratio. In the normal case, when the traded security return is near zero, and for reasonable correlations, the performance differences are economically insignificant. However, when the correlation approaches one, the trading strategy with the highest expected return approaches its maximum information ratio of 1.32 while the trading strategy with the highest information ratio goes to infinity.

q-fin.PM↗
arXiv2012

On traveling wave solutions to Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation with inequality constraints

The aim of this paper is to construct and analyze solutions to a class of Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations with range bounds on the optimal response variable. Using the Riccati transformation we derive and analyze a fully nonlinear parabolic partial differential equation for the optimal response function. We construct monotone traveling wave solutions and identify parametric regions for which the traveling wave solution has a positive or negative wave speed.

q-fin.PM↗
arXiv2013

Transaction Costs, Trading Volume, and the Liquidity Premium

In a market with one safe and one risky asset, an investor with a long horizon, constant investment opportunities, and constant relative risk aversion trades with small proportional transaction costs. We derive explicit formulas for the optimal investment policy, its implied welfare, liquidity premium, and trading volume. At the first order, the liquidity premium equals the spread, times share turnover, times a universal constant. Results are robust to consumption and finite horizons. We exploit the equivalence of the transaction cost market to another frictionless market, with a shadow risky asset, in which investment opportunities are stochastic. The shadow price is also found explicitly.

q-fin.PM↗
arXiv2011

Additive habits with power utility: Estimates, asymptotics and equilibrium

We consider a power utility maximization problem with additive habits in a framework of discrete-time markets and random endowments. For certain classes of incomplete markets, we establish estimates for the optimal consumption stream in terms of the aggregate state price density, investigate the asymptotic behaviour of the propensity to consume (ratio of the consumption to the wealth), as the initial endowment tends to infinity, and show that the limit is the corresponding quantity in an artificial market. For complete markets, we concentrate on proving the existence of an Arrow-Debreu equilibrium in an economy inhabited by heterogeneous individuals who differ with respect to their risk-aversion coefficient, impatience rate and endowments stream, but possess the same degree of habit-formation. Finally, in a representative agent equilibrium, we compute explicitly the price of a zero coupon bond and the Lucas tree equity, and study its dependence on the habit-formation parameter.

q-fin.PM↗
arXiv2011

Portfolios and the market geometry

A geometric analysis of the time series of returns has been performed in the past and it implied that the most of the systematic information of the market is contained in a space of small dimension. Here we have explored subspaces of this space to find out the relative performance of portfolios formed from the companies that have the largest projections in each one of the subspaces. It was found that the best performance portfolios are associated to some of the small eigenvalue subspaces and not to the dominant directions in the distances matrix. This occurs in such a systematic fashion over an extended period (1990-2008) that it may not be a statistical accident.

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