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arXiv2026

Large-scale spatial variable gene atlas for spatial transcriptomics

Spatial variable genes (SVGs) reveal critical information about tissue architecture, cellular interactions, and disease microenvironments. As spatial transcriptomics (ST) technologies proliferate, accurately identifying SVGs across diverse platforms, tissue types, and disease contexts has become both a major opportunity and a significant computational challenge. Here, we present a comprehensive benchmarking study of 20 state-of-the-art SVG detection methods using human slides from STimage-1K4M, a large-scale resource of ST data comprising 662 slides from more than 18 tissue types. We evaluate each method across a range of biologically and technically meaningful criteria, including recovery of pathologist-annotated domain-specific markers, cross-slide reproducibility, scalability to high-resolution data, and robustness to technical variation. Our results reveal marked differences in performance depending on tissue type, spatial resolution, and study design. Beyond benchmarking, we construct the first cross-tissue atlas of SVGs, enabling comparative analysis of spatial gene programs across cancer and normal tissues. We observe similarities between pairs of tissues that reflect developmental and functional relationships, such as high overlap between thymus and lymph node, and uncover spatial gene programs associated with metastasis, immune infiltration, and tissue-of-origin identity in cancer. Together, our work defines a framework for evaluating and interpreting spatial gene expression and establishes a reference resource for the ST community.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2026

On two proofs of $d^2$ mixing of weighted Dikin walks

We study the mixing time of weighted Dikin walks for sampling from exponential distributions on polytopes and truncated positive-semidefinite (PSD) cones. Our first result gives a general total-variation mixing bound under strong self-concordance, $\barν$-symmetry, and mixed-trace regularity on the local metric. The key idea is to control the Metropolis--Hastings acceptance probability on a high-probability region rather than at every point. Applying this framework to the Lee--Sidford, Lewis-weight, and John metrics yields an $\widetilde O(d^2)$ mixing bound for sampling from polytopes, while applying it to a hybrid barrier yields an $\widetilde O(d^4)$ mixing bound for sampling from truncated PSD cones. Our second result establishes stronger $χ^2$-divergence guarantees and pointwise acceptance control using a new fourth-order bootstrap condition. For a suitably scaled Lee--Sidford metric, this yields an $\widetilde O(d^2)$ mixing bound in $χ^2$-divergence, improving on the previous $\widetilde O(d^{9/4})$ bound.

cs.DS↗

arXiv2026

Towards a mathematical theory of superposition

We develop a mathematical theory of superposition in neural networks using tools from frame theory and compressed sensing. In our model, a sparse binary vector $x$ of active features is encoded through an overcomplete dictionary $W$, and feature recovery is performed by applying $\operatorname{ReLU}(W^\top W x+b)$ with an appropriate bias vector $b$. We prove several recovery theorems for this model. In the random-support setting, we establish high-probability support recovery for nearly tight, low-coherence dictionaries, with guarantees when the expected sparsity is up to order $d/\log n$. In the worst-case support setting, we give a sharp and computable criterion for which sparsity levels permit support recovery. We apply this criterion to Gaussian random matrices and equiangular tight frames. For real equiangular tight frames with $n>d+1$, we determine the exact recovery threshold in terms of the coherence. The proof of this result for real equiangular tight frames relies on a novel characterization---which should be of independent interest to frame theorists---of the distribution of signs in the Gram matrix.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Signed random Fourier features for fast density estimation with indefinite kernels

Kernel density estimation (KDE) is one of the most fundamental statistical estimators of density functions. Its direct implementation on a dataset of $N$ points incurs an $\mathcal{O}(N^{2})$ computational cost, which is prohibitive for large-scale datasets. Kernel approximation techniques can be applied to bring the computational cost down to $\mathcal{O}(N)$. The random Fourier features (RFF) technique, based on sampling from the spectral density of the kernel function, has become popular to speed up kernel estimators for machine learning applications. Unfortunately, it is restricted to positive definite kernels, while the majority of kernel functions popular in KDE, such as the parabolic kernel, do not satisfy this property. To overcome this limitation, this article introduces the signed random Fourier features (SRFF) technique. It is a generalization of RFF compatible with indefinite kernels whose inverse Fourier transform is absolutely integrable. The motivation for introducing this method is to speed up KDE in the case of multivariate compact kernels, which are generally not positive definite. We detail how to implement SRFF for both product kernels and isotropic kernels. For the class of Kuttner-Golubov kernels $K(\boldsymbol{x}_{i},\boldsymbol{x}_{j})=(1-\left\Vert \boldsymbol{x}_{i}-\boldsymbol{x}_{j}\right\Vert ^α)^β\mathbf{1}_{\{\left\Vert \boldsymbol{x}_{i}-\boldsymbol{x}_{j}\right\Vert \leq1\}}$ where $\boldsymbol{x}_{i}\in\mathbb{R}^{d}$, $\boldsymbol{x}_{j}\in\mathbb{R}^{d}$, $α>0$, $β>0$, which includes the triangular, parabolic, biweight, triweight, and other kernel functions of interest for KDE as particular examples, we provide an explicit acceptance-rejection algorithm to sample from its signed spectral density. Our numerical tests on a dataset of one million points confirm the computational efficiency and accuracy of SRFF for large-scale KDE.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2026

Structural Packing and Dyadic Factorization of Sparse Positive Definite Matrices

Efficient inversion of large sparse positive definite matrices requires exploiting sparsity patterns beyond those captured by conventional bandwidth reduction. In this work, we recast nested dissection, a prominent alternative, as a two-stage framework. The matrix was first packed into block-tridiagonal or dyadic form, followed by sparse Gram-Schmidt orthogonalization. This decomposition provided a unified perspective on sparse matrix factorization and inversion and identified dyadic structure as a fundamental component of sparse Cholesky factorization. For the first stage, we introduced a packing algorithm that recovered block-tridiagonal and dyadic patterns using a novel $\ell_1$ criterion. Using approximate distances obtained through classical multidimensional scaling, the method was effective when the target structure was sufficiently represented among the nonzero entries. Iterative application could also remove structural noise and reveal hidden dyadic organization, corresponding to separator identification in nested dissection. For the second stage, we developed the theory of dyadically structured matrices. We derived sparse factorization and inversion procedures, analyzed their computational complexity, and obtained an efficient inversion algorithm. A modified version reduced the cost of inverting block-tridiagonal matrices, demonstrating the benefit of exploiting their structure directly rather than treating them as generic band matrices.

math.NA↗

arXiv2026

Let the Flows Tell: Solving Graph Combinatorial Optimization Problems with GFlowNets

Combinatorial optimization (CO) problems are often NP-hard and thus out of reach for exact algorithms, making them a tempting domain to apply machine learning methods. The highly structured constraints in these problems can hinder either optimization or sampling directly in the solution space. On the other hand, GFlowNets have recently emerged as a powerful machinery to efficiently sample from composite unnormalized densities sequentially and have the potential to amortize such solution-searching processes in CO, as well as generate diverse solution candidates. In this paper, we design Markov decision processes (MDPs) for different combinatorial problems and propose to train conditional GFlowNets to sample from the solution space. Efficient training techniques are also developed to benefit long-range credit assignment. Through extensive experiments on a variety of different CO tasks with synthetic and realistic data, we demonstrate that GFlowNet policies can efficiently find high-quality solutions. Our implementation is open-sourced at https://github.com/zdhNarsil/GFlowNet-CombOpt.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Test of partial effects for Frechet regression on Bures-Wasserstein manifolds

We propose a novel test for assessing partial effects in Fréchet regression with responses lying on the Bures-Wasserstein manifold. Under the null hypothesis, we show that the statistic admits a degenerate V-statistic approximation whose limiting distribution is a weighted mixture of chi-squared random variables, with weights determined by the eigenvalues of an integral operator associated with a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) kernel. We establish the asymptotic validity and consistency of the proposed test. Its finite-sample performance is examined through simulation studies. We apply the proposed test to study the effect of age, while controlling for other covariates, on gene co-expression structure in single-cell data.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Content Exploration Beyond the Feed: Creator Supply and the Shared Corpus

Industrial recommenders give new content initial views through budgeted exploration, then use early performance to decide further delivery. On many short-video platforms, exploration is the primary way new videos reach viewers. Viewer-side tests measure consumption; the published budget objectives we review omit creator response. We analyze four experiments on a major short-video platform. An eight-month creator ablation finds production exploration raises videos posted per creator by 8.55% and creators posting at least once by 7.10% relative to a minimal floor. A budget-matched reallocation raises creator participation with no detectable short-run viewer-side change. A year-long viewer ablation finds 1.74% more video views but 2.13% less view time. A delivered view creates immediate feed value, can trigger organic take-up, and can induce creator supply. Take-up and supply replenish a shared corpus, creating two measurement limits. Viewer-side A/B tests cancel the corpus effect when both arms consume the same corpus. Giving each arm its own corpus avoids cancellation, but turnover still controls the horizon. If the corpus turns over at rate w per posting cycle, a t-cycle experiment expresses at most wt of the eventual corpus effect. More users reduce noise but do not speed turnover. Before the corpus path visibly bends, data cannot distinguish a modest fast effect from an arbitrarily large slow one, so a valid confidence interval may lack a finite upper endpoint. As predicted, the three-week co-diverted experiment cannot determine the sign of the eventual corpus effect. Within the window, it identifies the direct feed effect, and an exploratory cohort analysis detects organic lift after exploration ends. The experiments establish a positive creator response, measure the gross corpus flow visible within three weeks, and show the design and duration needed to identify total value.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2026

Probabilistic Symbolic Regression for Equation Discovery via Operator-induced and Regularized Symbolic Forests

Symbolic regression has emerged as a powerful tool for artificial intelligence-driven scientific discovery by learning interpretable analytical expressions that reveal governing relationships directly from data. Existing methods, however, often rely on heuristic search, struggle to balance predictive accuracy with expression complexity in noisy settings, and offer limited characterization of symbolic uncertainty. Probabilistic approaches that address these challenges in a unified manner remain underexplored. We introduce a probabilistic symbolic regression framework that represents mathematical expressions as ensembles of symbolic trees. A regularizing prior over tree topology controls expression complexity, while an Occam's window-based posterior summary captures uncertainty across multiple plausible symbolic models. Given the limited existing theoretical treatment of symbolic regression, we develop posterior concentration guarantees when symbolic expressions approximate the underlying relationship arbitrarily well, with a near-parametric rate when an exact finite formula exists. Additionally, we establish a sharp oracle concentration result under symbolic misspecification. Comparisons of our proposed framework with state-of-the-art competitors demonstrate superior predictive accuracy, optimal symbolic complexity, and stable structural recovery when learning benchmark scientific equations, together with the identification of scientifically interpretable descriptor formulas in a challenging materials discovery application.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Latency-Response Theory Model: Evaluating Large Language Models via Response Accuracy and Chain-of-Thought Length

The proliferation of Large Language Models (LLMs) necessitates valid evaluation methods to provide guidance for both downstream applications and actionable future improvements. The Item Response Theory (IRT) model with Computerized Adaptive Testing has recently emerged as a promising framework for evaluating LLMs via their response accuracy. Beyond simple response accuracy, LLMs' chain of thought (CoT) lengths serve as a vital indicator of their reasoning ability. To leverage the CoT length information to assist LLM evaluation, we propose the \textbf{La}tency-\textbf{R}esponse \textbf{T}heory (LaRT) model, which jointly models both the response accuracy and CoT length by introducing a key correlation parameter between the latent ability and the latent speed. We derive an efficient stochastic approximation Expectation-Maximization algorithm for parameter estimation. We establish rigorous identifiability results for the latent ability and latent speed parameters to ensure the statistical validity of their estimation. Through both theoretical asymptotic analyses and simulation studies, we demonstrate LaRT's advantages over IRT in terms of superior estimation accuracy and shorter confidence intervals for latent trait estimation. To evaluate LaRT in real data, we collect responses from diverse LLMs on popular benchmark datasets. We find that LaRT yields different LLM rankings than IRT and outperforms IRT across multiple key evaluation metrics including predictive power, item efficiency, ranking validity, and LLM evaluation efficiency. Code and data are available at https://github.com/Toby-X/Latency-Response-Theory-Model

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Learning a Size-Weight Frontier for Synthetic-Augmented Inference

Synthetic data can improve statistical inference when real data are scarce, but naively treating synthetic samples as real data can introduce bias and lead to unreliable inference. We develop a general framework for synthetic-augmented inference across a population of related tasks. It characterizes synthetic augmentation by the number of synthetic observations and their weight. Central to our framework is a size-weight frontier that specifies, for each weight, the largest synthetic sample size for which all smaller sizes attain the target task-marginal coverage. We estimate this frontier from historical tasks, and establish a finite-sample coverage guarantee simultaneously for all size-weight configurations on or below the estimated frontier. In experiments using large language model responses to augment opinion survey data, our procedure achieves target coverage and substantially narrows confidence intervals.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Diffusion Models in Simulation-Based Inference: A Tutorial Review

Diffusion models have recently emerged as powerful learners for simulation-based inference (SBI), enabling fast and accurate estimation of latent parameters from simulated and real data. Their score-based formulation offers a flexible way to learn conditional or joint distributions over parameters and observations, thereby providing a versatile solution to various modeling problems. In this tutorial review, we synthesize recent developments on diffusion models for SBI, covering design choices for training, inference, and evaluation. We highlight opportunities created by various concepts such as guidance, score composition, flow matching, consistency models, and joint modeling. Furthermore, we discuss how efficiency and statistical accuracy are affected by noise schedules, parameterizations, and samplers. Finally, we illustrate these concepts with case studies across parameter dimensionalities, simulation budgets, and model types, and outline open questions for future research.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Optimal Adversarial Testing: Extracting Honest Test Results from Dishonest Test Takers

In applications, it is often required to test objects or people to determine their qualities in terms of certain metrics. However, besides being naturally noisy, the test results can be corrupted by adversarial behaviors of objects or people being tested (test takers). For example, dishonest test takers can cheat in the exams to distort the test results. With the development of AI technologies, such distortions driven by cheating using AI technologies are becoming more commonplace and severe. In this paper, we propose optimal testing strategies which can still recover needed test results even if there are cheaters polluting the results. The proposed testing strategies will optimally re-test selected group of test takers using different testing security measures. We determine the optimal testing strategies using a dynamic programming method.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2026

Model Selection and Parameter Estimation of One-Dimensional Gaussian Mixture Models

In this paper, we study the problem of learning one-dimensional Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) with a specific focus on estimating both the model order and the mixing distribution from independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) samples. This paper establishes the optimal sampling complexity for model order estimation in one-dimensional Gaussian mixture models. We prove a fundamental lower bound on the number of samples required to correctly identify the number of components with high probability, showing that this limit depends critically on the separation between component means and the total number of components. We then propose a Fourier-based approach to estimate both the model order and the mixing distribution. Our algorithm utilizes Fourier measurements constructed from the samples, and our analysis demonstrates that its sample complexity matches the established lower bound, thereby confirming its optimality. Numerical experiments further show that our method outperforms conventional techniques in terms of efficiency and accuracy.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Sub-Gaussian Concentration and Entropic Normality of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator

It is well known that, under standard regularity conditions, the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) satisfies a central limit theorem and converges in distribution to a Gaussian random variable as the sample size grows. This paper strengthens this classical result by developing several stronger forms of asymptotic normality for the normalized MLE. With additional assumptions on the score, we first establish sub-Gaussian tail bounds and convergence of all moments for the normalized estimation error. We then prove an entropic central limit theorem for a smoothed version of the estimator, showing convergence in relative entropy to the limiting Gaussian law. When the Fisher information of the normalized estimate is bounded, or its density has bounded first derivative, we further show that the smoothing can be removed, yielding entropic normality of the MLE itself. The proofs develop auxiliary tools that may be of independent interest, including exponential consistency bounds, high-moment estimates, and entropy-control arguments for the estimator.

cs.IT↗

arXiv2023

Information geometric bound on general chemical reaction networks

We investigate the dynamics of chemical reaction networks (CRNs) with the goal of deriving an upper bound on their reaction rates. This task is challenging due to the nonlinear nature and discrete structure inherent in CRNs. To address this, we employ an information geometric approach, using the natural gradient, to develop a nonlinear system that yields an upper bound for CRN dynamics. We validate our approach through numerical simulations, demonstrating faster convergence in a specific class of CRNs. This class is characterized by the number of chemicals, the maximum value of stoichiometric coefficients of the chemical reactions, and the number of reactions. We also compare our method to a conventional approach, showing that the latter cannot provide an upper bound on reaction rates of CRNs. While our study focuses on CRNs, the ubiquity of hypergraphs in fields from natural sciences to engineering suggests that our method may find broader applications, including in information science.

physics.chem-ph↗

arXiv2026

Coherent information deletion: Bayes' theorem and generalized Bayesian unlearning

Bayes' theorem admits an information-processing interpretation due to Zellner (1988): under the Shannon-information criterion, the posterior is the unique rule that processes prior and data information without information loss. We revisit these ideas, but from the perspective of information deletion. Given a posterior based on a complete dataset, what distribution should replace it when a subset of the data is removed? We define information deletion using the same information conservation principle as Zellner (1988), and show that the optimalpost-deletion distribution is exactly the leave-data-out posterior. We then extend the framework beyond likelihood-based inference from Bayes to the generalized Bayesian updating of Bissiri et al. (2016) based on loss functions. We introduce a sequential coherence requirement for deletion, under which, removing two pieces of information jointly is equivalent to removing them successively. The resulting coherent deletion rule exactly recovers the generalized Bayesian posterior based only on the retained data. Restricting these optimization problems to variational families yields corresponding formulations of variational Bayesian and generalized Bayesian unlearning.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Sharp Restricted Isometry Thresholds for Global Minima of Rank-Restricted Matrix LASSO

We determine the sharp restricted isometry threshold for recovery at global minima of the rank-restricted matrix LASSO. For target rank $r_{\star}$, if the rank-$k$ RIP constant satisfies $δ<δ_{\mathrm{sharp}}(k/r_{\star})$, where $δ_{\mathrm{sharp}}(t)=t/(4-t)$ for $0<t<4/3$ and $δ_{\mathrm{sharp}}(t)=\sqrt{(t-1)/t}$ for $t\ge4/3$, then every global minimizer has Frobenius error $\lesssim\sqrt{r_{\star}}λ$ for all $λ\gtrsim\|\mathcal{A}^{*}(ξ)\|_{\mathrm{op}}$ and at every search rank $r\ge r_{\star}$. The constants depend only on the RIP constant and $t=k/r_{\star}$, and in particular are independent of the search rank. When the rank restriction is inactive, the result specializes to the ordinary convex matrix LASSO. We also obtain the analogous results for sparsity-restricted vector LASSO. Conversely, we show that the threshold $δ<δ_{\mathrm{sharp}}(k/r_{\star})$ cannot be improved, due to the existence of counterexamples whose global minimizers fail to recover the ground truth.

stat.ML↗