Functional linear regression that's interpretable

Abstract

Regression models to relate a scalar $Y$ to a functional predictor $X(t)$ are becoming increasingly common. Work in this area has concentrated on estimating a coefficient function, $β(t)$, with $Y$ related to $X(t)$ through $\intβ(t)X(t) dt$. Regions where $β(t)\ne0$ correspond to places where there is a relationship between $X(t)$ and $Y$. Alternatively, points where $β(t)=0$ indicate no relationship. Hence, for interpretation purposes, it is desirable for a regression procedure to be capable of producing estimates of $β(t)$ that are exactly zero over regions with no apparent relationship and have simple structures over the remaining regions. Unfortunately, most fitting procedures result in an estimate for $β(t)$ that is rarely exactly zero and has unnatural wiggles making the curve hard to interpret. In this article we introduce a new approach which uses variable selection ideas, applied to various derivatives of $β(t)$, to produce estimates that are both interpretable, flexible and accurate. We call our method "Functional Linear Regression That's Interpretable" (FLiRTI) and demonstrate it on simulated and real-world data sets. In addition, non-asymptotic theoretical bounds on the estimation error are presented. The bounds provide strong theoretical motivation for our approach.