Simulation of stochastic systems via polynomial chaos expansions and convex optimization

Lorenzo Fagiano; Mustafa Khammash

doi:10.1103/physreve.86.036702

Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 1202.0753

Simulation of stochastic systems via polynomial chaos expansions and convex optimization

Lorenzo Fagiano·Mustafa Khammash

View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Polynomial Chaos Expansions represent a powerful tool to simulate stochastic models of dynamical systems. Yet, deriving the expansion's coefficients for complex systems might require a significant and non-trivial manipulation of the model, or the computation of large numbers of simulation runs, rendering the approach too time consuming and impracticable for applications with more than a handful of random variables. We introduce a novel computationally tractable technique for computing the coefficients of polynomial chaos expansions. The approach exploits a regularization technique with a particular choice of weighting matrices, which allow to take into account the specific features of Polynomial Chaos expansions. The method, completely based on convex optimization, can be applied to problems with a large number of random variables and uses a modest number of Monte Carlo simulations, while avoiding model manipulations. Additional information on the stochastic process, when available, can be also incorporated in the approach by means of convex constraints. We show the effectiveness of the proposed technique in three applications in diverse fields, including the analysis of a nonlinear electric circuit, a chaotic model of organizational behavior, finally a chemical oscillator.

Explore related subjects

stat.CO cs.SY eess.SY math-ph math.DS math.MP math.OC

Keep this discovery

BibTeX RIS

Lorenzo Fagiano, Mustafa Khammash. 2012-02-03. Simulation of stochastic systems via polynomial chaos expansions and convex optimization. https://doi.org/10.1103/physreve.86.036702

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Extended One-Liners for the Gamma, Poisson, and Binomial Distributions

We demonstrate explicit transformations of three independent uniforms with exact Gamma$(a,1)$, $a>0$, Poisson$(\lambda)$, $\lambda>0$, and Binomial$(N,p)$, $N\geq 1$, $0\leq p \leq 1$ laws using only elementary operations.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2026

Estimating Hierarchically Rank Structured Covariance Matrices

We consider the problem of estimating a high-dimensional covariance matrix from a very limited number of samples. This problem is ubiquitous in computational fluid dynamics, where a small number of fluid snapshots must be used to construct a Gramian matrix determining a reduced-order model, as well as in computational geoscience, where a small ensemble of Earth system forecasts must be used to estimate the covariance matrix associated with the forecast uncertainty. It is common practice to regularize the small-sample covariance by imposing a "localization" structure that enforces a physically realistic correlation length scale, imposing a sparsity constraint, "shrinking" towards a prescribed target, or attenuating small correlations. We propose an alternate technique that regularizes the small-sample covariance by imposing hierarchical rank structure. Compared to regularization methods that assume sparsity such as spatial localization, hierarchical rank structure accommodates a wider range of covariance matrices, roughly corresponding to situations where long-range correlations vary more smoothly than short-range ones. It also results in a data-sparse matrix format that permits highly efficient matrix-vector products. We present theory and algorithms which show how to efficiently estimate a high-dimensional, hierarchically rank structured covariance matrix from limited samples. Through an error analysis and numerical experiments with a variety of model problems, we demonstrate that these techniques are effective at reducing sampling errors, and that in many cases they achieve smaller estimation error than conventional techniques.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2026

Optimal Slice-Adaptive Tuning of Hybrid Slice Sampling

Slice sampling is a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that draws its next state uniformly from a "slice"---a super-level set of the target density function---at each iteration, thereby providing automatic local adaptivity to the scale of the target. In practice the exact slice is not known, so general-purpose implementations use an approximate slice that is grown from a starting interval of length $w>0$, with a computational cost that depends on $w$. This work presents an analysis of the average per-iteration number of target density evaluations, as a function of $w$, of hybrid slice sampling with various slice-finding schemes for targets with contiguous slices. The paper uses the results of the analysis to develop automated, slice-adaptive tuning schemes along with suboptimality bounds and asymptotic convergence guarantees. Simulations demonstrate that the tuning schemes reliably yield near-optimal slice-adaptive tuning with essentially no dependence on the initial setting of $w$.

stat.CO↗