SearcharxivSearch

arXiv · 1512.06829

Towards Robust Gravitational Wave Detection with Pulsar Timing Arrays

Abstract

Precision timing of highly stable milli-second pulsars is a promising technique for the detection of very low frequency sources of gravitational waves. In any single pulsar, a stochastic gravitational wave signal appears as an additional source of timing noise that can be absorbed by the noise model, and so it is only by considering the coherent response across a network of pulsars that the signal can be distinguished from other sources of noise. In the limit where there are many gravitational wave sources in the sky, or many pulsars in the array, the signals produce a unique tensor correlation pattern that depends only on the angular separation between each pulsar pair. It is this distinct fingerprint that is used to search for gravitational waves using pulsar timing arrays. Here we consider how the prospects for detection are diminished when the statistical isotropy of the timing array or the gravitational wave signal is broken by having a finite number of pulsars and a finite number of sources. We find the standard tensor-correlation analysis to be remarkably robust, with a mild impact on detectability compared to the isotropic limit. Only when there are very few sources and very few pulsars does the standard analysis begin to fail. Having established that the tensor correlations are a robust signature for detection, we study the use of "sky-scrambles" to break the correlations as a way to increase confidence in a detection. This approach is analogous to the use of "time-slides" in the analysis of data from ground based interferometric detectors.

Explore related subjects

Keep this discovery

BibTeXRIS

Neil J. Cornish, Laura M. Sampson. 2015-12-21. Towards Robust Gravitational Wave Detection with Pulsar Timing Arrays. https://doi.org/10.1103/physrevd.93.104047

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

Electrovacuum Black Hole Uniqueness

We prove the black hole uniqueness conjecture in the axially symmetric, stationary, electrovacuum setting, subject to the refined asymptotic analysis of the associated singular harmonic maps, which includes an analyticity hypothesis at the axes. More precisely, it is shown that any asymptotically flat solution of the Einstein--Maxwell equations in this class, with more than one black hole horizon component is either: Majumdar--Papapetrou, up to a duality rotation, in which case all logarithmic angle defects vanish, or every finite axis rod logarithmic angle defect is strictly negative and hence every interaction force is strictly attractive. The proof extends the singular harmonic map method used for vacuum Kerr uniqueness in [18].

gr-qc

Constraining Modified Mass-to-Horizon Cosmology Through Primordial Inflationary Observables

We investigate slow-roll inflation in a modified cosmological framework inspired by a generalized mass-to-horizon relation (MHR), $M=\gamma {c^2 L^n}/{G}$, where $n$ is a real parameter and $\gamma$ a dimensional constant. Using Padmanabhan's emergence paradigm, we derive the modified Friedmann equations for a flat FRW universe and analyze the dynamics of a canonical scalar field (inflaton) under the slow-roll approximation. We study the resulting inflationary phenomenology for power-law and Starobinsky potentials. For power-law potentials, the MHR modification fails to reconcile these models with current CMB constraints on $r$ and $n_s$. In contrast, Starobinsky inflation exhibits significant sensitivity to deviations from $n=1$. A perturbative analysis ($n=1+\Delta$) yields corrections to inflationary observables. We observe that the scalar power-spectrum normalization, under a fixed-Starobinsky prescription, imposes the stringent constraint $0.960 \lesssim n \lesssim 1.040$ for $N=60$ efolds. This is considerably tighter than spectral-index bounds. Our results establish inflation, particularly Starobinsky-like models, as a sensitive probe of generalized horizon thermodynamics and departures from standard MHR scaling.

gr-qc

Improving the Sensitivity of Gravitational Wave Detection with Weighted Conformal Prediction

In the last decade, kilometre-scale interferometric gravitational-wave detectors have observed hundreds of compact binary mergers, the majority of which are binary black holes. However, the data are noise-dominated, and multiple independent search algorithms (pipelines) are used to enhance sensitivity and improve robustness. Rather than the standard approach of selecting the most significant pipeline output, we combine the outputs from all pipelines using a conformal prediction-based framework to provide statistically rigorous confidence estimates for candidate events. While combining pipelines improves sensitivity and ranking robustness, it requires a principled statistical framework that remains valid as data properties evolve across observing runs. A key challenge is distribution shifts between simulated datasets used for training and calibration and the real, unlabelled, observations used for testing, which can invalidate coverage guarantees and bias confidence estimates. In this work, we address this challenge by incorporating likelihood-ratio reweighting into our conformal prediction framework to account for covariate shift. Using mock datasets containing simulated signals, we demonstrate that weighted conformal prediction restores well-calibrated coverage under covariate shift and increases the confidence of events near the detection threshold, recovering true signals that would otherwise be missed.

gr-qc