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arXiv · 1603.03061

Taming systematic uncertainties at the LHC with the central limit theorem

Sylvain Fichet
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Abstract

We study the simplifications occurring in any likelihood function in the presence of a large number of small systematic uncertainties. We find that the marginalisation of these uncertainties can be done analytically by means of second-order error propagation, error combination, the Lyapunov central limit theorem, and under mild approximations which are typically satisfied for LHC likelihoods. The outcomes of this analysis are i) a very light treatment of systematic uncertainties ii) a convenient way of reporting the main effects of systematic uncertainties such as the detector effects occuring in LHC measurements.

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Sylvain Fichet. 2016-08-30. Taming systematic uncertainties at the LHC with the central limit theorem. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nuclphysb.2016.08.029

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