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arXiv · 1609.01942

Revisiting the prediction of solar activity based on the relationship between the solar maximum amplitude and max-max cycle length

V. M. S. Carrasco·J. M. Vaquero·M. C. Gallego
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Abstract

It is very important to forecast the future solar activity due to its effect on our planet and near space. Here, we employ the new version of the sunspot number index (version 2) to analyse the relationship between the solar maximum amplitude and max-max cycle length proposed by Du (2006). We show that the correlation between the parameters used by Du (2006) for the prediction of the sunspot number (amplitude of the cycle, Rm, and max-max cycle length for two solar cycles before, Pmax-2) disappears when we use solar cycles prior to solar cycle 9. We conclude that the correlation between these parameters depends on the time interval selected. Thus, the proposal of Du (2006) should definitively not be considered for prediction purposes.

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V. M. S. Carrasco, J. M. Vaquero, M. C. Gallego. 2016-09-07. Revisiting the prediction of solar activity based on the relationship between the solar maximum amplitude and max-max cycle length. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2016.08.036

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