A Search for Lost Planets in the Kepler Multi-planet Systems and the Discovery of the Long-period, Neptune-sized Exoplanet Kepler-150 f

Abstract

The vast majority of the 4700 confirmed planets and planet candidates discovered by the Kepler mission were first found by the Kepler pipeline. In the pipeline, after a transit signal is found, all data points associated with those transits are removed, creating a "Swiss cheese"-like light curve full of holes, which is then used for subsequent transit searches. These holes could render an additional planet undetectable (or "lost"). We examine a sample of 114 stars with $3+$ confirmed planets to evaluate the effect of this "Swiss cheesing". A simulation determines that the probability that a transiting planet is lost due to the transit masking is low, but non-negligible, reaching a plateau at $\sim3.3\%$ lost in the period range of $P=400-500$ days. We then model all planet transits and subtract out the transit signals for each star, restoring the in-transit data points, and use the Kepler pipeline to search the transit-subtracted (i.e., transit-cleaned) light curves. However, the pipeline did not discover any credible new transit signals. This demonstrates the validity and robustness of the Kepler pipeline's choice to use transit masking over transit subtraction. However, a follow-up visual search through all the transit-subtracted data, which allows for easier visual identification of new transits, revealed the existence of a new, Neptune-sized exoplanet (Kepler-150 f) and a potential single transit of a likely false positive (Kepler-208). Kepler-150 f ($P=637.2$ days, $R_{\rm{P}}=3.64^{+0.52}_{-0.39}$ R$_{\oplus}$) is confirmed with $>99.998\%$ confidence using a combination of the planet multiplicity argument, a false positive probability analysis, and a transit duration analysis.