Structured Actor-Critic for Managing Public Health Points-of-Dispensing

Abstract

Public health organizations face the problem of dispensing treatments (i.e., vaccines, antibiotics, and others) to groups of affected populations through "points-of-dispensing" (PODs) during emergency situations, typically in the presence of complexities like demand stochasticity, heterogenous utilities (e.g., for vaccine distribution, certain segments of the population may need to be prioritized), and limited storage. We formulate a hierarchical Markov decision process (MDP) model with two levels of decisions (and decision-makers): the upper-level decisions come from an inventory planner that "controls" a lower-level dynamic problem, which optimizes dispensing decisions that take into consideration the heterogeneous utility functions of the random set of PODs. We then derive structural properties of the MDP model and propose an approximate dynamic programming (ADP) algorithm that leverages structure in both the policy and the value space (state-dependent basestocks and concavity, respectively). The algorithm can be considered an actor-critic method; to our knowledge, this paper is the first to jointly exploit policy and value structure within an actor-critic framework. We prove that the policy and value function approximations each converge to their optimal counterparts with probability one and provide a comprehensive numerical analysis showing improved empirical convergence rates when compared to other ADP techniques. Finally, we show how an aggregation-based version of our algorithm can be applied in a realistic case study for the problem of dispensing naloxone (an overdose reversal drug) via first responders amidst the ongoing opioid crisis.