Sequential Bayesian inference for spatio-temporal models of temperature and humidity data

Yingying Lai; Andrew Golightly; Richard Boys

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arXiv · 1806.05424

Sequential Bayesian inference for spatio-temporal models of temperature and humidity data

Yingying Lai·Andrew Golightly·Richard Boys

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Abstract

We develop a spatio-temporal model to forecast sensor output at five locations in North East England. The signal is described using coupled dynamic linear models, with spatial effects specified by a Gaussian process. Data streams are analysed using a stochastic algorithm which sequentially approximates the parameter posterior through a series of reweighting and resampling steps. An iterated batch importance sampling scheme is used to circumvent particle degeneracy through a resample-move step. The algorithm is modified to make it more efficient and parallisable. The model is shown to give a good description of the underlying process and provide reasonable forecast accuracy.

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Yingying Lai, Andrew Golightly, Richard Boys. 2018-06-14. Sequential Bayesian inference for spatio-temporal models of temperature and humidity data. https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.05424

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