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arXiv · 1812.09263

Parameter estimates of the 2016-2017 Zika outbreak in Costa Rica: An Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) Approach

Fabio Sanchez·Luis Barboza·Paola Vasquez
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Abstract

In Costa Rica, the first known cases of Zika were reported in 2016. We looked at the 2016-2017 Zika outbreak and explored the transmission dynamics using weekly reported data. A nonlinear differential equation single-outbreak model with sexual transmission, as well as host availability for vector-feeding was used to estimate key parameters, fit the data and compute the {\it basic reproductive number}, $\mathcal{R}_0$, distribution. Furthermore, a sensitivity and elasticity analysis was computed based on the $\mathcal{R}_0$ parameters.

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Fabio Sanchez, Luis Barboza, Paola Vasquez. 2018-12-21. Parameter estimates of the 2016-2017 Zika outbreak in Costa Rica: An Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) Approach. https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2019136

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