Functional Gaussian Distribution Modelling of Mobility Prediction Accuracy for Wireless Users

Abstract

Mobility entropy is proposed to measure predictability of human movements, based on which, the upper and lower bound of prediction accuracy is deduced, but corresponding mathematical expressions of prediction accuracy keeps yet open. In this work, we try to analyze and model prediction accuracy in terms of entropy based on the 2-order Markov chain model empirical results on a large scale CDR data set, which demonstrates the observation that users with the same level of entropy achieve different levels of accuracy\cite{Empirical}. After dividing entropy into intervals, we fit the probability density distributions of accuracy in each entropy interval with Gaussian distribution and then we estimate the corresponding mean and standard deviation of these distributions. After observing that the parameters vary with increasing entropy, we then model the relationship between parameters and entropy using least squares method. The mean can be modelled as a linear function, while the standard deviation can be modelled as a Gaussian distribution. Thus based on the above analysis, the probability density function of accuracy given entropy can be expressed by functional Gaussian distribution. The insights from our work is the first step to model the correlation prediction accuracy and predictability entropy, thus shed light on the further work in this direction.