Transport map accelerated adaptive importance sampling, and application to inverse problems arising from multiscale stochastic reaction networks

Simon L. Cotter; Ioannis G. Kevrekidis; Paul Russell

Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 1901.11269

Transport map accelerated adaptive importance sampling, and application to inverse problems arising from multiscale stochastic reaction networks

Simon L. Cotter·Ioannis G. Kevrekidis·Paul Russell

View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

In many applications, Bayesian inverse problems can give rise to probability distributions which contain complexities due to the Hessian varying greatly across parameter space. This complexity often manifests itself as lower dimensional manifolds on which the likelihood function is invariant, or varies very little. This can be due to trying to infer unobservable parameters, or due to sloppiness in the model which is being used to describe the data. In such a situation, standard sampling methods for characterising the posterior distribution, which do not incorporate information about this structure, will be highly inefficient. In this paper, we seek to develop an approach to tackle this problem when using adaptive importance sampling methods, by using optimal transport maps to simplify posterior distributions which are concentrated on lower dimensional manifolds. This approach is applicable to a whole range of problems for which Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC) methods mix slowly. We demonstrate the approach by considering inverse problems arising from partially observed stochastic reaction networks. In particular, we consider systems which exhibit multiscale behaviour, but for which only the slow variables in the system are observable. We demonstrate that certain multiscale approximations lead to more consistent approximations of the posterior than others. The use of optimal transport maps stabilises the ensemble transform adaptive importance sampling (ETAIS) method, and allows for efficient sampling with smaller ensemble sizes. This approach allows us to take advantage of the large increases of efficiency when using adaptive importance sampling methods for previously intractable Bayesian inverse problems with complex posterior structure.

Explore related subjects

stat.CO cs.NA math.NA math.PR

Keep this discovery

BibTeX RIS

Simon L. Cotter, Ioannis G. Kevrekidis, Paul Russell. 2019-01-31. Transport map accelerated adaptive importance sampling, and application to inverse problems arising from multiscale stochastic reaction networks. https://arxiv.org/abs/1901.11269

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Extended One-Liners for the Gamma, Poisson, and Binomial Distributions

We demonstrate explicit transformations of three independent uniforms with exact Gamma$(a,1)$, $a>0$, Poisson$(\lambda)$, $\lambda>0$, and Binomial$(N,p)$, $N\geq 1$, $0\leq p \leq 1$ laws using only elementary operations.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2026

Estimating Hierarchically Rank Structured Covariance Matrices

We consider the problem of estimating a high-dimensional covariance matrix from a very limited number of samples. This problem is ubiquitous in computational fluid dynamics, where a small number of fluid snapshots must be used to construct a Gramian matrix determining a reduced-order model, as well as in computational geoscience, where a small ensemble of Earth system forecasts must be used to estimate the covariance matrix associated with the forecast uncertainty. It is common practice to regularize the small-sample covariance by imposing a "localization" structure that enforces a physically realistic correlation length scale, imposing a sparsity constraint, "shrinking" towards a prescribed target, or attenuating small correlations. We propose an alternate technique that regularizes the small-sample covariance by imposing hierarchical rank structure. Compared to regularization methods that assume sparsity such as spatial localization, hierarchical rank structure accommodates a wider range of covariance matrices, roughly corresponding to situations where long-range correlations vary more smoothly than short-range ones. It also results in a data-sparse matrix format that permits highly efficient matrix-vector products. We present theory and algorithms which show how to efficiently estimate a high-dimensional, hierarchically rank structured covariance matrix from limited samples. Through an error analysis and numerical experiments with a variety of model problems, we demonstrate that these techniques are effective at reducing sampling errors, and that in many cases they achieve smaller estimation error than conventional techniques.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2026

Optimal Slice-Adaptive Tuning of Hybrid Slice Sampling

Slice sampling is a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that draws its next state uniformly from a "slice"---a super-level set of the target density function---at each iteration, thereby providing automatic local adaptivity to the scale of the target. In practice the exact slice is not known, so general-purpose implementations use an approximate slice that is grown from a starting interval of length $w>0$, with a computational cost that depends on $w$. This work presents an analysis of the average per-iteration number of target density evaluations, as a function of $w$, of hybrid slice sampling with various slice-finding schemes for targets with contiguous slices. The paper uses the results of the analysis to develop automated, slice-adaptive tuning schemes along with suboptimality bounds and asymptotic convergence guarantees. Simulations demonstrate that the tuning schemes reliably yield near-optimal slice-adaptive tuning with essentially no dependence on the initial setting of $w$.

stat.CO↗