Practical Prediction of Human Movements Across Device Types and Spatiotemporal Granularities

Abstract

Understanding and predicting mobility are essential for the design and evaluation of future mobile edge caching and networking. Consequently, research on prediction of human mobility has drawn significant attention in the last decade. Employing information-theoretic concepts and machine learning methods, earlier research has shown evidence that human behavior can be highly predictable. Despite existing studies, more investigations are needed to capture intrinsic mobility characteristics constraining predictability, and to explore more dimensions (e.g. device types) and spatio-temporal granularities, especially with the change in human behavior and technology. We analyze extensive longitudinal datasets with fine spatial granularity (AP level) covering 16 months. The study reveals device type as an important factor affecting predictability. Ultra-portable devices such as smartphones have "on-the-go" mode of usage (and hence dubbed "Flutes"), whereas laptops are "sit-to-use" (dubbed "Cellos"). The goal of this study is to investigate practical prediction mechanisms to quantify predictability as an aspect of human mobility modeling, across time, space and device types. We apply our systematic analysis to wireless traces from a large university campus. We compare several algorithms using varying degrees of temporal and spatial granularity for the two modes of devices; Flutes vs. Cellos. Through our analysis, we quantify how the mobility of Flutes is less predictable than the mobility of Cellos. In addition, this pattern is consistent across various spatio-temporal granularities, and for different methods (Markov chains, neural networks/deep learning, entropy-based estimators). This work substantiates the importance of predictability as an essential aspect of human mobility, with direct application in predictive caching, user behavior modeling and mobility simulations.