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arXiv · 2001.09593

Shapley value confidence intervals for attributing variance explained

Daniel Fryer·Inga Strumke·Hien Nguyen
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Abstract

The coefficient of determination, the $R^2$, is often used to measure the variance explained by an affine combination of multiple explanatory covariates. An attribution of this explanatory contribution to each of the individual covariates is often sought in order to draw inference regarding the importance of each covariate with respect to the response phenomenon. A recent method for ascertaining such an attribution is via the game theoretic Shapley value decomposition of the coefficient of determination. Such a decomposition has the desirable efficiency, monotonicity, and equal treatment properties. Under a weak assumption that the joint distribution is pseudo-elliptical, we obtain the asymptotic normality of the Shapley values. We then utilize this result in order to construct confidence intervals and hypothesis tests regarding such quantities. Monte Carlo studies regarding our results are provided. We found that our asymptotic confidence intervals are computationally superior to competing bootstrap methods and are able to improve upon the performance of such intervals. In an expository application to Australian real estate price modelling, we employ Shapley value confidence intervals to identify significant differences between the explanatory contributions of covariates, between models, which otherwise share approximately the same $R^2$ value. These different models are based on real estate data from the same periods in 2019 and 2020, the latter covering the early stages of the arrival of the novel coronavirus, COVID-19.

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Daniel Fryer, Inga Strumke, Hien Nguyen. 2020-01-27. Shapley value confidence intervals for attributing variance explained. https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.09593

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