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arXiv · 2004.05684

A kinetic model for qualitative understanding and analysis of the effect of complete lockdown imposed by India for controlling the COVID-19 disease spread by the SARS-CoV-2 virus

Raj Kishore·Prashant Kumar Jha·Shreeja Das·Dheeresh Agarwal·Tanmay Maloo·Hansraj Pegu·Devadatta Sahoo·Ankita Singhal·Kisor K. Sahu
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Abstract

The present ongoing global pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 virus is creating havoc across the world. The absence of any vaccine as well as any definitive drug to cure, has made the situation very grave. Therefore only few effective tools are available to contain the rapid pace of spread of this disease, named as COVID-19. On 24th March, 2020, the the Union Government of India made an announcement of unprecedented complete lockdown of the entire country effective from the next day. No exercise of similar scale and magnitude has been ever undertaken anywhere on the globe in the history of entire mankind. This study aims to scientifically analyze the implications of this decision using a kinetic model covering more than 96% of Indian territory. This model was further constrained by large sets of realistic parameters pertinent to India in order to capture the ground realities prevailing in India, such as: (i) true state wise population density distribution, (ii) accurate state wise infection distribution for the zeroth day of simulation (20th March, 2020), (iii) realistic movements of average clusters, (iv) rich diversity in movements patterns across different states, (v) migration patterns across different geographies, (vi) different migration patterns for pre- and post-COVID-19 outbreak, (vii) Indian demographic data based on the 2011 census, (viii) World Health Organization (WHO) report on demography wise infection rate and (ix) incubation period as per WHO report. This model does not attempt to make a long-term prediction about the disease spread on a standalone basis; but to compare between two different scenarios (complete lockdown vs. no lockdown). In the framework of model assumptions, our model conclusively shows significant success of the lockdown in containing the disease within a tiny fraction of the population and in the absence of it, it would have led to a very grave situation.

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Raj Kishore, Prashant Kumar Jha, Shreeja Das, Dheeresh Agarwal, Tanmay Maloo, Hansraj Pegu, Devadatta Sahoo, Ankita Singhal, Kisor K. Sahu. 2020-04-12. A kinetic model for qualitative understanding and analysis of the effect of complete lockdown imposed by India for controlling the COVID-19 disease spread by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.05684

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