Modeling the propagation of riots, collective behaviors, and epidemics

Abstract

This paper is concerned with a family of Reaction-Diffusion systems that we introduced in [15], and that generalizes the SIR type models from epidemiology. Such systems are now also used to describe collective behaviors.In this paper, we propose a modeling approach for these apparently diverse phenomena through the example of the dynamics of social unrest. The model involves two quantities: the level of social unrest, or more generally activity, u, and a field of social tension v, which play asymmetric roles. We think of u as the actually observed or explicit quantity while v is an ambiant, sometimes implicit, field of susceptibility that modulates the dynamics of u. In this article, we explore this class of model and prove several theoretical results based on the framework developed in [15], of which the present work is a companion paper. We particularly emphasize here two subclasses of systems: tension inhibiting and tension enhancing. These are characterized by respectively a negative or a positivefeedback of the unrest on social tension. We establish several properties for these classes and also study some extensions. In particular, we describe the behavior of the system following an initial surge of activity. We show that the model can give rise to many diverse qualitative dynamics. We also provide a variety of numerical simulations to illustrate our results and to reveal further properties and open questions.