A tutorial on spatiotemporal partially observed Markov process models via the R package spatPomp

Abstract

We describe a computational framework for modeling and statistical inference on high-dimensional stochastic dynamic systems. Our primary motivation is the investigation of metapopulation dynamics arising from a collection of spatially distributed, interacting biological populations. To make progress on this goal, we embed it in a more general problem: inference for a collection of interacting partially observed nonlinear non-Gaussian stochastic processes. Each process in the collection is called a unit; in the case of spatiotemporal models, the units correspond to distinct spatial locations. The dynamic state for each unit may be discrete or continuous, scalar or vector valued. In metapopulation applications, the state can represent a structured population or the abundances of a collection of species at a single location. We consider models where the collection of states has a Markov property. A sequence of noisy measurements is made on each unit, resulting in a collection of time series. A model of this form is called a spatiotemporal partially observed Markov process (SpatPOMP). The R package spatPomp provides an environment for implementing SpatPOMP models, analyzing data using existing methods, and developing new inference approaches. Our presentation of spatPomp reviews various methodologies in a unifying notational framework. We demonstrate the package on a simple Gaussian system and on a nontrivial epidemiological model for measles transmission within and between cities. We show how to construct user-specified SpatPOMP models within spatPomp.